Tag: Brazil

Coffee Prices Rise as Brazilian Real Strength Sparks Short Covering

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DUBAI – QAHWA WORLD

Coffee futures climbed sharply on Thursday following a surge in the Brazilian real, which encouraged traders to cover short positions. March arabica contracts closed up 1.65%, while March robusta contracts rose 2.02%.

The real reached its highest level against the U.S. dollar in nearly two years, prompting caution among Brazilian coffee exporters and contributing to the price gains.

Over the past two weeks, coffee prices had been under pressure. Arabica and robusta recently hit six-month lows amid expectations of a strong Brazilian crop. According to Brazil’s crop agency Conab, total coffee production in 2026 is projected to reach 66.2 million bags, up 17.2% from 2025. Arabica output is expected to increase 23.2% to 44.1 million bags, while robusta production is forecast to grow 6.3% to 22.1 million bags.

Rainfall in Brazil has also improved crop prospects. Minas Gerais, the country’s largest arabica-growing region, received 72.6 mm of rain during the week ending February 6, exceeding the historical average. This eased earlier concerns over dry conditions that had pressured prices.

Vietnam’s coffee exports, particularly robusta, are increasing, exerting downward pressure on prices. January exports rose 38.3% year-on-year to 198,000 metric tons, while total 2025 exports climbed 17.5% to 1.58 million metric tons. Production for 2025/26 is projected at 1.76 million metric tons (29.4 million bags), the highest in four years.

ICE coffee inventories have also recovered, limiting price gains. Arabica stocks, which fell to a 1.75-year low in November, rose to a three-month high by early January. Robusta inventories, previously at a 13-month low in December, similarly increased in January.

On the upside, Brazil’s coffee exports fell 42.4% year-on-year in January, reducing global supply pressure. Smaller production in Colombia, the second-largest arabica producer, also supported prices, with January output down 34% year-on-year.

Globally, the International Coffee Organization reported a slight decline (-0.3%) in exports for the current marketing year, signaling tighter supplies. Meanwhile, USDA forecasts indicate that total global coffee production in 2025/26 will reach a record 178.848 million bags, with arabica slightly down and robusta up. Brazil’s 2025/26 production is expected to decrease by 3.1%, while Vietnam’s output is projected to rise 6.2%, reaching a four-year high. Ending stocks are forecast to decline by 5.4%.

Minas Gerais Rains End Speculative Fever and Topple Global Coffee Prices

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DUBAI – QAHWA WORLD

Global coffee markets witnessed a dramatic shift in the final week of January 2026, as a wave of heavy rainfall in Brazilian production regions toppled the hopes of those betting on continued price increases. In a corrective movement described as the most violent in months, the pound of coffee lost more than 21 cents of its value within just 72 hours, causing the International Coffee Organization Composite Indicator Price (I-CIP) to plummet from a peak of 304.17 cents on January 27th to 283.02 cents by the end of the month. This freefall was not merely a response to a passing climatic event, but rather an official announcement of the end of the “risk premium” that had fueled markets throughout the past period due to fears of a long-term drought in the state of “Minas Gerais,” the beating heart of coffee production in Brazil, according to the latest data issued by the International Coffee Organization (ICO) Report for January 2026.

The report’s analytical data indicates that the market entered January in a state of cautious balance, as clear directional catalysts were absent, keeping prices within a narrow range that left farmers in a state of financial satisfaction without pushing them toward aggressive selling. However, this situation evaporated immediately upon the release of meteorological reports confirming improved moisture in the Brazilian soil, providing a strong signal for investment funds and major speculators on the New York Stock Exchange to liquidate their long positions and flee the market before prices retreated to minimum levels. This “mass exodus” of speculators doubled the downward momentum, turning the price correction into a rapid collapse that disrupted the calculations of exporters who had bet on prices remaining above the 300-cent barrier.

Economically, this collapse was linked to local currency variables in Brazil; as the strength of the “Real” against the Dollar played a dual role at the beginning of the month by raising prices, before global markets succumbed to the pressure of expected future supply. Analysts believe that the recent rains not only improved the condition of the existing “Arabica” crop but also sent reassuring messages regarding the 2026/2027 season, which pulled the rug from under the traders who built their strategies on supply scarcity. This shift placed global roasting companies in a stronger negotiating position, as they began to reduce their spot purchases in anticipation of further declines, reflecting the technical state of “Backwardation” dominating the exchanges, where spot prices remain higher than futures contracts, discouraging the desire to build long-term inventories at high prices.

On the field level, the International Coffee Organization report confirmed that these climatic developments have redrawn the forecast map for the first quarter of the year, as markets are now expected to witness an abundance of supplies with the fading fears of “water stress.” In conjunction with these price pressures, major players in the New York market began reassessing their positions, amid expectations that downward pressure will continue as long as the sky continues to grant Brazil’s farms the necessary moisture. The “Rain Revolution,” as some traders called it, was nothing but a harsh reminder that technology and financial analysis remain helpless before weather fluctuations in the world’s largest coffee-producing country, and that the security of the global cup remains more linked to weather maps over the mountains of Brazil than to the policies of central banks.

Coffee Prices Drop Sharply Amid Record Global Supply Projections

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Dubai – Qahwa World

Coffee market prices ended Friday’s sessions with a significant decline, as March Arabica coffee contracts dropped by 3.84% to close at -11.85, while March Robusta coffee fell by 1.75% to close at -67. This downward trend persisted throughout the week, with Arabica hitting a 6-month low and Robusta reaching its lowest level in nearly 6 months, pressured by reports confirming robust global supplies.

The Brazilian crop forecasting agency, Conab, reported that coffee production in Brazil for 2026 is expected to rise by 17.2%, reaching a record 66.2 million bags. This includes a projected 23.2% surge in Arabica production to 44.1 million bags and a 6.3% increase in Robusta to 22.1 million bags. In Vietnam, the world’s leading Robusta producer, exports in January jumped by 38.3%, adding further bearish pressure on prices, especially after 2025 exports had already risen by 17.5% to 1.58 million metric tons.

Additionally, above-average rainfall in Brazil eased drought concerns. Minas Gerais, the largest Arabica-growing region, received 69.8 mm of rain in the week ending January 30, representing 117% of the historical average. Vietnam’s production for the 2025/2026 season is also projected to climb 6% to a 4-year high. Meanwhile, ICE-monitored inventories have begun to recover from previous lows; Arabica stocks rose from a nearly 2-year low to a 3-month high, and Robusta inventories showed a similar recovery.

Despite some supportive signals for prices, such as the Brazilian Trade Ministry reporting a 42.4% drop in January exports and the International Coffee Organization (ICO) noting a slight 0.3% dip in global shipments, the overall outlook remains focused on surplus. The USDA’s bi-annual report projects that world coffee production for 2025/2026 will increase by 2% to a record 178.8 million bags, with a significant 10.9% rise in Robusta output, even as total ending stocks are forecasted to decline by 5.4%.

Arabica Coffee Gains on Technical Support Amid Mixed Market Performance

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Dubai – Qahwa WORLD

March Arabica coffee (KCH26) concluded Monday’s session with a gain of +1.00 (+0.30%), while March ICE Robusta coffee (RMH26) saw a notable decline, closing down -84 (-2.04%) at a four-week low. The market showed a mixed performance as substantial rainfall in Brazil improved yield prospects but pressured prices. Somar Meteorologia reported that Minas Gerais, Brazil’s premier Arabica region, received 69.8 mm of rain during the week ending January 30, representing 117% of the historical average.

Further weighing on the market, Brazil’s crop agency, Conab, recently increased its 2025 total coffee production forecast by 2.4% to 56.54 million bags. Meanwhile, Robusta prices faced significant headwinds from surging exports in Vietnam, the world’s top Robusta producer. Official statistics from January 5 indicated a +17.5% year-over-year jump in Vietnamese coffee exports to 1.58 MMT. Production for the 2025/26 cycle in Vietnam is projected to rise +6% to 1.76 MMT, a four-year high, with Vicofa suggesting a potential 10% increase if weather remains favorable.

The recovery of ICE-monitored inventories has also exerted downward pressure on prices. Arabica stocks climbed to a 3.25-month high of 461,829 bags in early January, recovering from a multi-year low recorded in November. Similarly, Robusta inventories reached a two-month high of 4,662 lots last Monday. On the supportive side, Cecafe reported an -18.4% decline in Brazil’s December green coffee exports, with Arabica shipments down -10% and Robusta exports falling sharply by -61%.

Globally, the International Coffee Organization noted a marginal -0.3% decrease in exports for the current marketing year. However, the USDA’s Foreign Agriculture Service predicts record global production of 178.848 million bags for 2025/26, a +2.0% increase. This forecast anticipates a -4.7% drop in Arabica output alongside a +10.9% surge in Robusta production. Ending stocks for the 2025/26 period are expected to decline by -5.4% to 20.148 million bags.

Coffee Prices Drop as Brazilian Real Weakens

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Dubai – Qahwa World

Coffee prices fell sharply on Wednesday after the Brazilian real lost some of its recent gains, prompting traders to liquidate long positions in coffee futures.

March Arabica (KCH26) closed down 16.25 points (-4.42%).

March Robusta (RMH26) fell 130 points (-3.04%).

Earlier in the session, Arabica had climbed to a two-and-a-half-week high, while Robusta reached a one-and-three-quarter-month peak before giving up gains. The weaker real makes Brazilian coffee more competitive for export, adding pressure on futures prices.

  • Key Factors Driving the Market

Supporting Prices:

Brazilian coffee exports declined in December by 18.4%, totaling 2.86 million bags, with Arabica down 10% and Robusta down 61% year-on-year.

Below-average rainfall in Minas Gerais, Brazil’s main Arabica region, has raised concerns about supply, as the area received just 33.9 mm of rain last week—around half the historical average.

Pressuring Prices:

ICE coffee inventories have recovered after hitting multi-year lows, which weighs on prices.

Vietnam, the world’s top Robusta producer, saw its 2025 exports jump 17.5% to 1.58 million metric tons, with production rising 6% year-on-year.

Global coffee supply forecasts show a modest increase in total production, with Arabica down and Robusta up, creating mixed signals for the market.

  • Market Outlook

Brazil’s 2025/26 production is projected to fall to 63 million bags, while Vietnam’s output is expected to rise to 30.8 million bags—a four-year high. Ending stocks for the season are forecasted to decline to 20.148 million bags, down 5.4% from the previous year, keeping supply concerns on traders’ radar.

Brazilian Coffee Ends 2025 with Record Revenues Exceeding $15.6 Billion

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São Paulo – Qahwa World

In a detailed economic report reflecting major shifts in global commodity markets, the Brazilian Coffee Exporters Council (Cecafé) announced the conclusion of 2025 with an unprecedented financial performance. Despite ongoing supply chain disruptions and geopolitical volatility, Brazil achieved a historic record in coffee export revenues, reinforcing its position as a leading force in the global agricultural economy.

  • Cecafé: The Reference Authority for Data and Policy

The Brazilian Coffee Exporters Council (Cecafé) is the official body representing coffee exporters in Brazil and is responsible for monitoring coffee trade flows to more than 120 countries worldwide. According to Cecafé’s December 2025 report, these exceptional financial results demonstrate the sector’s ability to adapt to global price fluctuations, supported by strategic investments in quality enhancement and value creation for Brazilian coffee in international markets.

  • Financial Performance Analysis: Value Growth Amid Lower Volumes

Based on data analyzed by Cecafé, Brazil’s coffee export revenues reached $15.586 billion in 2025, marking a 24.1% increase compared with the previous year. This figure represents the highest export revenue level in Brazil’s coffee trade history.

Notably, this record revenue was achieved despite a 20.8% decline in shipment volumes. Brazil exported 40.049 million 60-kg bags in 2025, down from more than 50 million bags in 2024. The increase in revenues was driven by a sharp rise in the average export price, which reached $389.17 per bag, up 56.4% year on year. This pricing dynamic allowed exporters to generate higher returns with lower volumes, supporting crop sustainability and helping preserve domestic stocks affected by adverse climatic conditions.

  • A Reshaped Trade Map: Germany Takes the Lead

The year 2025 marked a significant shift in Brazil’s coffee export destinations. According to Cecafé, the United States fell to second place among Brazil’s largest coffee importers, while Germany emerged as the leading destination.

Germany imported 5.409 million bags, representing a 6.1% increase, while U.S. imports declined sharply by 33.9%, totaling 5.381 million bags. Cecafé attributes this contraction in the U.S. market primarily to the imposition of 50% import tariffs on Brazilian coffee during parts of the year, which reduced the product’s competitiveness and redirected volumes toward European and Asian markets.

In parallel, Japan recorded growth of 19.4%, while China posted a 19.5% increase, highlighting the success of Cecafé’s market diversification strategy and its focus on emerging economic powers in Asia.

  • Differentiated Coffees: Driving Qualitative Growth

Cecafé’s report also highlights the strong performance of the “Differentiated Coffees” segment, which includes coffees certified for high quality standards or sustainable production practices. This segment generated $3.525 billion in revenue, accounting for 22.6% of total export earnings.

Although shipment volumes in this category declined by 15.1%, their total value increased by 39.1%. Márcio Ferreira, President of Cecafé, noted that global consumers are increasingly willing to pay premium prices for coffees that ensure environmental and social sustainability—an area in which Brazil has strengthened its position through advanced agricultural technologies.

  • Logistics Challenges: The Cost of Success

Despite the strong financial results, 2025 was not without challenges. Cecafé reported severe logistical constraints at Brazilian ports, particularly at the Port of Santos. According to the report, 55% of vessels experienced schedule delays, disrupting the shipment of thousands of containers each month.

These delays resulted in operational losses amounting to millions of Brazilian reais, driven by demurrage charges and additional storage costs. Cecafé emphasized that improving port infrastructure and ensuring a steady supply of containers are essential to sustaining record export performance in the coming years.

  • Outlook for 2026: Sustainability and Innovation

Cecafé’s December 2025 report concludes with an optimistic outlook led by Marcos Matos, CEO of the Brazilian Coffee Exporters Council. He stated that the “Cafés do Brasil” brand has become a global benchmark, successfully combining large-scale production with environmental responsibility.

According to the report, Brazil—through Cecafé—not only supplies approximately one-third of global coffee demand, but also leads efforts in agricultural digitalization, labor rights protection, and forest conservation, positioning Brazilian coffee as a reliable and sustainable choice for the future.

  • Conclusion

Generating more than $15.6 billion in export revenues in a single year is not merely a statistical milestone, but a clear indicator of the strength and global standing of Brazilian coffee. It also underscores the central role played by the Brazilian Coffee Exporters Council (Cecafé) in guiding the sector toward new levels of financial and professional achievement.

Coffee Prices Rise Amid Brazilian Heatwave and Supply Pressures

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Dubai – Qahwa World

Coffee markets are seeing an upward shift in prices, driven by weather events in key production regions and tightening global supplies.

March arabica futures rose 1.26%, while ICE robusta for January had previously gained 1.06% before the holiday closure. The Brazilian coffee belt is experiencing a heatwave forecasted to last through Monday, putting pressure on crops and supporting prices.

Additional factors are influencing the market. In Indonesia, recent floods have affected roughly one-third of northern Sumatra’s arabica plantations, potentially cutting the nation’s coffee exports by up to 15% in the 2025-26 season. Robusta production has been less impacted. Indonesia remains the third-largest robusta producer worldwide.

Meanwhile, Brazil’s Minas Gerais region received rainfall during the week ending December 19 that was below average, according to Somar Meteorologia. Reduced precipitation in key growing areas can add bullish pressure on arabica coffee.

Coffee inventories also play a role in market dynamics. ICE-tracked arabica stocks hit a 1.75-year low of 398,645 bags in November before rising to 456,477 bags recently. Robust a inventories similarly fell to near 12-month lows before modest recovery.

US demand for Brazilian coffee remains restrained. Tariffs previously imposed on imports led to a 52% drop in purchases from August to October compared to the previous year. Although tariffs have since eased, US stock levels remain limited.

On the supply side, Brazil’s national crop agency Conab raised its 2025 production estimate to 56.54 million bags, up from 55.20 million in September, signaling an ample supply outlook.

Robusta coffee faces downward pressure amid expectations of strong output. Vietnam’s coffee exports surged 39% year-on-year in November and 14.8% from January to November, according to government statistics. Total production in 2025/26 is projected to rise 6% to 1.76 million metric tons, a four-year high.

Globally, the International Coffee Organization reported a slight decline of 0.3% in coffee exports for the current marketing year, supporting price stability. The USDA projects world coffee output for 2025/26 to reach a record 178.85 million bags, with arabica falling 4.7% and robusta rising 10.9%. Brazil’s production is expected to decrease by 3.1%, while Vietnam’s output could rise 6.2% to a four-year high. Ending stocks are projected to decline by 5.4% to 20.15 million bags.

Overall, a combination of adverse weather in Brazil, flooding in Indonesia, and fluctuating inventories is contributing to upward momentum in coffee prices, even as abundant output in some regions, particularly Vietnam, applies downward pressure on robusta markets.

Russia Sets Record for Brazilian Coffee Imports

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Moscow – Qahwa World

Russia significantly increased its imports of coffee from Brazil between January and November, with the total value reaching nearly $390 million — the highest level recorded to date, according to official Brazilian statistics.

Since the beginning of the year, Brazilian coffee shipments to Russia amounted to approximately $392.6 million, compared with about $232.3 million over the same period last year, highlighting a sharp expansion in bilateral trade within this segment.

Import volumes also rose in physical terms, totaling 62.3 thousand tonnes, which represents a 13% year-on-year increase.

As a result of the higher purchases, Russia ranked 11th among the world’s largest importers of Brazilian coffee. Germany remained the leading destination with imports worth around $2.1 billion, followed by the United States at $1.8 billion and Italy at approximately $1.2 billion.

Other major markets for Brazilian coffee during the period included Japan and Belgium, as well as the Netherlands, Türkiye, and Spain, while China also featured among the top ten importing countries.

Historic Sale at Cerrado Mineiro: Coffee Bag Fetches $38,500

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Patrocínio, Brazil – Qahwa World

A bag of specialty coffee from Brazil’s Cerrado Mineiro region has reached a record price of US$38,500 at the 13th Cerrado Mineiro Regional Award in Uberlândia, Minas Gerais. The lot, winning the Pulped Cherry category, was cultivated by Eduardo Pinheiro Campos of Fazenda Dona Nenem in Presidente Olegário and purchased by a consortium led by Expocacer, in collaboration with Veloso Green Coffee, Marex, and Nucoffee.

The runner-up bid of US$19,250 went to Louis Dreyfus Company for the champion of the Natural category. The strong competition reflects growing worldwide interest in Cerrado Mineiro coffees.

The Cerrado Mineiro Coffee Growers Federation confirmed that this is the highest amount ever paid for a coffee bag at an auction in Brazil. The auction raised a total of US$108,500 across nine lots, averaging US$12,000 per bag.

Eduardo Pinheiro Campos commented: “This achievement honors our hardworking team. It reflects years of dedication, awards, and excellence. Over the thirteen editions of this competition, we have reached the podium eleven times, showing consistent quality and commitment.”

Simão Pedro, President of Expocacer, added: “When buyers compete at this level, it demonstrates the global recognition of our quality, sustainability, and innovation. Expocacer is proud to lead Brazil’s coffee sector, proving that our specialty coffee sets benchmarks internationally.”

The 13th Cerrado Mineiro Regional Award showcased the best coffees of the 2025–2026 harvest in four categories: Natural, Pulped Cherry, Fermented, and Sweet Cerrado Mineiro. Expocacer members won first place in Pulped Cherry and shared first place in Sweet Cerrado Mineiro.

Forty percent of the auction proceeds (US$43,400) will benefit the Escola de Atitude project, which supports youth education and personal development in coffee-growing communities.

Highlights of Expocacer at the 13th Cerrado Mineiro Regional Award

Eduardo Pinheiro Campos – First place, Pulped Cherry (90.59 points)

Maria Soraia Guimarães – Third place, Pulped Cherry (89.18 points)

Guima Café – First place (shared), Sweet Cerrado Mineiro

About Expocacer
Founded in 1993 in Patrocínio, Minas Gerais, Expocacer is a cooperative of coffee producers supporting over 740 members. With modern facilities, including warehouses holding over one million coffee bags, the cooperative exports specialty coffee to more than 35 countries while promoting social and environmental initiatives.

Brazilian Real Firming Lifts Arabica Coffee as Market Signals Remain Mixed

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Dubai – Qahwa World

March arabica coffee (KCH26) rose slightly by +0.15 (+0.04%) on Tuesday, while January ICE robusta (RMF26) slipped -15 (-0.34%), hitting a 1.5-week low. The day’s movements reflect a split market, with arabica gaining support from a stronger Brazilian real, now at a two-week high against the US dollar. The firmer currency is discouraging export sales from Brazil’s growers, helping arabica prices edge upward.

Robusta, however, is under pressure. The Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association reported that around 10% of the country’s robusta harvest is now complete and forecasted that expected drier weather will accelerate harvesting through the month. Vietnam is the world’s largest robusta producer, and signs of increased output continue to weigh on prices.

Weather conditions in Brazil are offering some support to the market. Somar Meteorologia noted that Minas Gerais—Brazil’s main arabica-producing region—received only 20.4 mm of rain in the week ending November 28, equivalent to 39% of the historical average.

Coffee inventories monitored by ICE continue to tighten. US tariffs on coffee imports from Brazil triggered a sharp drawdown in stocks. ICE-certified arabica inventories reached a 1.75-year low of 398,645 bags on November 20, while robusta inventories fell today to an 11-month low of 4,115 lots. American buyers have cancelled new Brazilian coffee contracts due to the tariffs, tightening domestic supply. US imports of Brazilian coffee from August to October fell 52% year-on-year to 983,970 bags.

On the policy side, the outlook for ample supply strengthened after the European Parliament approved a one-year delay to the European Union’s anti-deforestation law (EUDR). The postponement allows EU members to continue importing agricultural commodities—including coffee—from regions in Africa, Indonesia, and South America where deforestation remains a concern.

Several supply signals are weighing on the market. StoneX recently projected Brazil’s 2026/27 crop at 70.7 million bags, including 47.2 million bags of arabica, a 29% year-on-year increase. Vietnam’s supply outlook also remains heavy: its Jan–Oct exports rose 13.4% year-on-year to 1.31 MMT, and 2025/26 production is expected to grow by 6% to 1.76 MMT (29.4 million bags), a four-year high. Vicofa additionally suggested that Vietnam’s 2025/26 output could rise by 10% if favorable weather continues.

Some indicators continue to signal tightening global supply. The International Coffee Organization reported that global exports for the current Oct–Sep cycle slipped 0.3% year-on-year to 138.658 million bags. In Brazil, Conab cut its 2025 arabica estimate by 4.9% in September, lowering the projection to 35.2 million bags. Total Brazilian coffee output was trimmed to 55.2 million bags.

Longer-term forecasts from the USDA’s Foreign Agriculture Service expect global production to rise 2.5% in 2025/26 to a record 178.68 million bags. The outlook includes a 1.7% decline in arabica output to 97.022 million bags, alongside a 7.9% increase in robusta to 81.658 million bags. Ending stocks are projected to rise 4.9% to 22.819 million bags.

Brazil’s Expocacer Launches First Blockchain-Powered Coffee Auction

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Dubai – Qahwa World

The major Brazilian coffee cooperative Expocacer is taking a significant digital step by preparing to host its inaugural online auction on the new Coffee Chain trading platform. This event will offer roasters and importers worldwide access to highly traceable specialty coffee lots.

Auction Details and Focus
Scheduled for December 11-12, the online-only auction, branded “Essências by Expocacer,” will feature select lots from the cooperative’s Essências program. This initiative is designed to assist small and medium-sized members in developing and marketing higher-value specialty coffee.

The auction is open for registration to any entity or individual within the global القهوة industry, targeting roasters and importers internationally.

While official lot details and opening bids are pending release, promotional materials for Coffee Chain indicate a strong emphasis on high-scoring microlots sourced from the Cerrado Mineiro region. These lots are expected to come with extensive farm-level documentation and complete traceability.

The Coffee Chain Platform
This auction marks a key milestone in the deployment of Coffee Chain, a digital trading solution co-developed by Expocacer and the Brazilian technology firm AIDDA, which specializes in providing blockchain-based solutions for the agricultural sector.

The cooperative describes the custom-built system as a comprehensive tracker for production, inventory, and sales data, with every transaction and event securely logged on the blockchain. The platform also integrates certifications, verifies designation of origin, and provides tools to streamline contract negotiation and management for its users.

Initially unveiled at the 2025 Specialty Coffee Expo in Houston, the platform was presented as a transparent, direct e-commerce channel for trade. Expocacer currently backs the platform with logistics hubs established in the United States and the UK, enabling service to over 40 export markets globally.

Sandra Moraes, Expocacer’s Specialty Coffee Manager, emphasized the platform’s strategic importance, noting, “The significance and high competitiveness of the U.S. market motivated us to further advance the development of the Coffee Chain platform.” She added that the platform has demonstrated “consistent growth in its user base and sales volume, establishing itself as a valuable client solution.”

The cooperative is capitalizing on a successful year, having reported in November that it anticipates closing 2025 with approximately $545 million in revenue, a surge of about 58% compared to 2024. Foreign sales now account for more than half of its total revenue.

Global Coffee Prices Jump Amid Supply Concerns

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Dubai – Qahwa World

Prices for coffee futures saw a sharp increase today, driven by worries over how weather conditions might impact harvests in major producing nations, alongside notable drops in monitored exchange inventories.

Prices for both arabica and robusta coffee are significantly higher as adverse weather bolsters concerns over global coffee crops. Arabica coffee has found support due to dryness concerns in Brazil. Specifically, meteorology reports indicated that Brazil’s largest arabica coffee-growing area, Minas Gerais, received 49% of its historical average rainfall during the week ended November 21st, fueling concerns about the current crop. Robusta coffee is climbing today on forecasts of heavy showers in Vietnam’s Dak Lak province, the country’s biggest coffee-growing region. These heavy rains are expected to further delay the harvest, tightening short-term supply expectations.

Shrinking inventories monitored by the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) are also supportive of prices. US trade actions concerning Brazilian coffee imports have reportedly caused a substantial reduction in US exchange stockpiles. ICE-monitored arabica stocks fell to a 1.75-year low last week, and ICE robusta inventories hit a 4.5-month low today. American buyers avoided new contracts for Brazilian coffee purchases due to the tariffs, thereby tightening US supplies, as about a third of America’s unroasted coffee comes from Brazil. US purchases of Brazilian coffee during the period when tariffs were effective dropped by 52% from the same period last year.

Last Friday, arabica coffee had briefly tumbled to a seven-week low after an executive order was signed late last week, exempting Brazilian food products, including coffee, from the 40% tariff. In a potentially bearish factor, one major commodity consultancy forecast that Brazil will produce 70.7 million bags of coffee in the new 2026/27 marketing year, including 47.2 million bags of arabica, a significant year-over-year increase. Increased Vietnamese coffee supplies are also bearish for prices. Recent statistics show Vietnam’s coffee exports rose by 13.4% year-over-year in the January-October period. Additionally, Vietnam’s 2025/26 coffee production is projected to climb 6% year-over-year to a four-year high of 29.4 million bags, with the Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association suggesting a 10% increase if weather remains favorable. Vietnam is the world’s largest producer of robusta coffee.

Signs of tighter global coffee supplies are generally supportive of prices. The International Coffee Organization (ICO) reported that global coffee exports for the current marketing year (October-September) fell 0.3% year-over-year. Coffee prices also found support after Conab, Brazil’s crop forecasting agency, cut its Brazil 2025 arabica coffee crop estimate by 4.9% in September, and slightly reduced its total Brazil 2025 coffee production estimate. The USDA’s Foreign Agriculture Service (FAS) previously projected that world coffee production in 2025/26 will increase by 2.5% to a record high, driven by a 7.9% increase in robusta production, offsetting a slight decrease in arabica output. FAS forecasted modest production increases for both Brazil and Vietnam in 2025/26, along with a climb in global ending stocks.