Category: News

Viral Sensation: Chinese Café Serves Coffee at -86°C

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Chengdu, China – September 6, 2025 (Qahwa World) – Luna Café in Chengdu has gone viral for its unusual twist on coffee service: drinks served in glasses chilled to an astonishing -86 degrees Celsius.

The idea, showcased by food vlogger Shufosho in a widely shared Instagram video, eliminates the need for ice while creating a dramatic sensory experience. The process begins with staff retrieving a frosted glass from an ultra-cold freezer, filling it with milk, and topping it with freshly brewed espresso. The icy cup ensures that the drink stays cold without dilution.

The café recommends drinking the coffee immediately in large sips to enjoy the striking contrast between the hot espresso and super-chilled milk—a taste sensation the vlogger compared to “ice cream on warm apple pie.”

Located on 24 Fanghua Street in Chengdu, Luna Café’s inventive beverage has sparked widespread curiosity online. The Instagram reel featuring the drink has already gained over 120,000 likes and a flood of comments from intrigued coffee lovers eager to try it themselves.

With netizens worldwide asking for similar creations in their own countries, this innovative take on iced lattes has firmly placed Luna Café at the center of a global coffee conversation.

Starbucks Moves Ahead with Major U.S. Coffeehouse Revamp

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Dubai, 5 September 2025 (Qahwa World) – Starbucks is reporting strong progress on its ambitious plan to refresh its U.S. coffeehouses, with redesigned stores in New York and Southern California already showing encouraging results.

The global coffee chain began remodeling select outlets in July 2025 as part of CEO Brian Niccol’s Back to Starbucks strategy, which aims to restore the brand’s traditional “coffeehouse atmosphere” and counter declining sales in its home market.

According to Starbucks, customers at the updated stores are spending more time in-store, visiting more frequently, and responding positively to the changes. The redesign includes:

  • Cozy seating and warmer lighting to create a more inviting environment

  • Vibrant artwork and ceramic mugs to highlight a café-style experience

  • A redesigned espresso bar that showcases coffee preparation and barista skills

  • Improved pickup zones that are streamlined and less disruptive

Starbucks intends to remodel more than 1,000 company-owned U.S. stores by the end of 2026 — nearly 10% of its U.S. network. The revamp is designed to strengthen connections with customers, replacing the “overly transactional” feel of some locations.

In addition, Starbucks announced it will phase out its 90 mobile order and pickup-only sites across the U.S. by the end of 2025. First introduced in 2019, these outlets will be closed to prioritize spaces that foster human interaction and community engagement.

Despite challenges in the U.S. market, Starbucks posted solid results in its latest financial report. For the quarter ending 29 June 2025, the company achieved 4% year-on-year revenue growth, reaching $9.5 billion globally. In the U.S., revenue increased by 1% to $6.45 billion, with Starbucks operating 17,230 outlets nationwide.

The coffee giant believes that its large-scale store refresh will play a crucial role in boosting customer loyalty, improving in-store experiences, and reinforcing its leadership in the U.S. coffee market.

Announcement of the UAE AeroPress Championship 2025

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Dubai, September 5, 2025 (Qahwa World) – The organizers of the UAE AeroPress Championship 2025 have announced that the competition will take place over three days, from November 6 to 8, hosted by the Coffee Centre of the Dubai Multi Commodities Centre (DMCC), bringing together coffee lovers and professionals from across the Emirates.

In the 2024 edition, Sonam Sherpa of Kranti Coffee claimed the title, while John Patric Elazegui of Amongstfew secured second place, and Alfred Samson took third. Organized by Mokha 1450, the event drew more than 400 participants and spectators from across the UAE.

Last year’s competition featured Yemeni coffee sourced from the Talooq Women’s Association in Jabal, Taiz Governorate, Republic of Yemen, under the theme “Breaking Boundaries,” which reflected innovation and creativity. The event also included coffee tastings and exclusive AeroPress giveaways, supported by sponsors such as Slayer, Coffee Desk, TSAK Trading Company, and Coffee Market Innovations.

2025 Competition Structure

  • November 6–7: Regional rounds across the Emirates.

  • November 8: The grand finale bringing together qualifiers from each Emirate to crown the UAE AeroPress Champion 2025.

Road to the World Championship

The UAE champion crowned on November 8 will represent the country at the World AeroPress Championship, to be held in Seoul, South Korea, on December 5–6, 2025.

Luckin Coffee Gains Market Share as Rivals Struggle

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Dubai, September 5, 2025 (Qahwa World) – Luckin Coffee continues its rapid ascent in the global coffee industry, expanding aggressively while key competitors like Starbucks face declining sales.

The Chinese coffee chain, which has already surged ~35% this year, recently entered the U.S. market with new stores in New York City. This move comes as Starbucks undergoes a difficult transformation in both its American and Chinese operations.

Strong Same-Store Sales Growth

Luckin Coffee reported a 13% year-on-year increase in same-store sales at company-owned outlets in Q2 2025. This marks its fourth consecutive quarter of acceleration, rising from a decline in late 2024. In comparison, Starbucks posted a 2% sales decline in the U.S. and only 2% growth in China, where it introduced discounts to counter Luckin’s aggressive promotions.

By outperforming Starbucks’ same-store sales growth by 11 percentage points, Luckin has proven resilient in a strained global economy where many restaurant chains are seeing contractions.

Aggressive Expansion Strategy

The company’s expansion strategy remains unmatched. In Q2 alone, Luckin opened 2,109 new stores, lifting its total footprint to 26,200 – a 31% year-on-year increase. Over the past year, Luckin has added more than 6,200 stores, averaging 17 openings per day.

In contrast, Starbucks expanded its network by just 5% over the same period, adding 1,600 stores worldwide. Luckin’s U.S. debut has been met with favorable reviews, with New York outlets receiving 4–5 star ratings on Google and Yelp.

With RMB 8.2 billion ($1.1 billion) in cash reserves and no debt, Luckin has ample resources to finance its ambitious global rollout.

Differentiation: Menu Innovation and Value Pricing

Luckin distinguishes itself through a bold menu and competitive pricing. While offering classic beverages, it experiments with unique flavors – from fruity Americanos to limited-edition drinks like Roast Duck coffee in China.

Equally important is its pricing advantage: brewed coffee at its U.S. outlets starts at $3.45, below the average price in many American cities. This value-driven approach has fueled customer growth while maintaining a 21% store operating margin.

Valuation Advantage

Despite its momentum, Luckin trades at a far lower valuation than U.S. peers. Its price-to-earnings ratio is around 19x, half that of Starbucks. On revenue multiples, Luckin is valued at a quarter of fast-growing competitor Dutch Bros, even though it is expanding at a faster pace.

Risks and Outlook

While Luckin’s history includes challenges—such as price wars and over-discounting in 2024—the company has since shifted strategy to balance promotions with profitability.

Analysts see more upside than downside as Luckin strengthens its position in China while expanding overseas. Its combination of innovation, affordability, and financial strength makes it one of the most compelling players in the global coffee industry today.

Mexico Launches Instant ‘Wellness Coffee’ Sourced from Small Farmers

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Mexico City, September 4, 2025 (Qahwa World) – Mexico’s Food for Well-Being program has officially introduced “Wellness Coffee” to the national market, expanding its growing line of government-backed wellness products that already includes honey, chocolate, and beans.

Announced by President Claudia Sheinbaum during her Wednesday press conference, the new product reflects consumer preferences: with 84% of Mexican households opting for instant coffee, the government chose this format to ensure accessibility and popularity.

According to María Luisa Albores González, head of the Food for Well-Being program, Wellness Coffee will be available in three sizes:

  • 50 g at 35 pesos (US $1.86)

  • 90 g at 65 pesos (US $3.46)

  • 205 g at 110 pesos (US $5.86)

Unlike many instant coffees permitted by Mexican standards to contain up to 30% non-coffee ingredients, this new product is 100% coffee — free from additives, colorings, or artificial flavors. The blend consists mainly of Arabica and parchment coffee, with a small proportion of Robusta, cultivated under agroforestry systems that benefit both the environment and local communities.

Supporting Small Producers and Women Farmers

The initiative required an investment of 59.4 million pesos (US $3 million) to purchase 913.56 tons of coffee. More than 6,600 small farmers from Oaxaca, Puebla, Veracruz, and Guerrero supplied the beans, with 50% of them located in the Guerrero Mountains. Remarkably, women account for six out of every ten producers.

Albores emphasized that the program strengthens Indigenous communities, including Mixes, Mixtecs, Nahuas, and Otomis, by ensuring fair purchasing prices and sustainable livelihoods.

Nationwide Distribution

Wellness Coffee will be distributed gradually through the national network of Wellness Stores. The first rollout begins in central Mexico, including Mexico City, Estado de México, Michoacán, Morelos, Puebla, and Tlaxcala, before expanding across the country.

With its launch, Mexico positions coffee not only as a cultural staple but also as a tool for social equity and environmental sustainability.

Indian Coffee Producers Welcome GST Reduction to 5%

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New Delhi, September 5, 2025 (Qahwa World) – India’s coffee sector has warmly welcomed the government’s decision to cut the Goods and Services Tax (GST) on coffee from 12% and 18% down to 5%, describing it as a historic move that will boost domestic consumption and strengthen the country’s competitiveness in global markets.

The decision, adopted during the 56th GST Council meeting chaired by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman, simplified the tax system into two primary slabs: 5% for essential and merit goods, and 18% as the standard rate, while keeping a 40% rate for de-merit goods such as tobacco and luxury items. Coffee was placed under the merit category, and starting September 22, roasted, instant, and processed coffee products will all benefit from the reduced tax rate.

Fresh Momentum for Domestic Consumption

For Neleema Rana George, Managing Director of Kelachandra Coffee, one of India’s oldest plantation companies dating back to 1786, the move marks a defining moment. She stressed that classifying coffee as an essential good would make it more widely available and affordable, thereby encouraging daily consumption, opening new avenues for growth, and creating greater balance between farmers, processors, and retailers. She emphasized that the positive impact of this decision “will extend from farm to cup.”

Neleema Rana George, Managing Director of Kelachandra Coffee

Specialty Coffee Poised for Growth

In the specialty sector, Devesh Khushalani, Co-Founder of Kranti Coffee, described the tax cut as “a ray of hope after a difficult period,” noting that lowering GST to 5% translates into fairer prices for consumers, allowing them to access Indian nano-lots and strengthening café culture.

He also pointed to pioneers such as Ashok Patre of Ratnagiri Estate and Hamsini of Sangameshwar Coffee Estate, who have positioned Indian coffee on the global stage through innovative processing methods and micro-lots that have scored above 90 points.

Devesh Khushalani, Co-Founder of Kranti Coffee

Export Competitiveness and Sustainability

From Rajasthan, Radhika Kabra, Founder of Qetli Coffee, underlined the global impact of the reform. She explained that cutting taxes on processing, packaging, and logistics by up to 6% gives Indian coffee a stronger edge against major producers like Vietnam and Brazil. According to the Coffee Board of India, export volumes are expected to grow by 15–20% in the coming year. Kabra said she plans to reinvest these savings in sustainable practices such as water-efficient drip irrigation, which will generate jobs and support local farmers.

She also noted that importers stand to benefit: “Lower GST makes Indian coffee more competitive, reducing prices by 4–5% and enabling access to GI-tagged varieties such as Coorg Arabica and Wayanad Robusta at better rates for international markets.”

Radhika Kabra, Founder of Qetli Coffee

A New Chapter for Indian Coffee

Across the sector, there is consensus that this tax reform is not merely a financial adjustment but a transformative milestone. It promises to drive domestic demand, fuel innovation, and reinforce India’s standing as a rising force in the global coffee trade.

As the September deadline for implementation approaches, optimism is running high. For many, the reform signals the beginning of a new chapter: one in which coffee becomes more accessible to millions of Indian consumers while also expanding its footprint on the world stage.

Global Coffee Stocks Fall to Lowest Level Since April 2024

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Dubai, September 4, 2025 (Qahwa World) – The International Coffee Organization’s (ICO) August 2025 report has revealed a sharp decline in global coffee stocks, falling to their lowest level since April 2024. The drop in inventories comes just weeks after prices reached a historic high, highlighting a fragile market caught between soaring demand and tightening supply.

According to the ICO, certified Arabica stocks held at the New York Exchange dropped 7.9% to 0.77 million bags, marking a 16-month low. Robusta inventories at the London Exchange also fell by 4.6%, standing at 1.13 million bags. The simultaneous reduction across both major coffee types signals a broad squeeze on available supply.

Why Stocks Are Falling

Analysts point to several reasons behind the decline:

  • Weaker export flows – Global green coffee exports fell for the sixth consecutive month in July 2025, tightening supplies into key markets.

  • Crop concerns – Brazil, the world’s top producer, reported larger bean sizes but weaker density, which reduced overall yield estimates.

  • Climate risks – A frost in Brazil earlier this year damaged an estimated half a million bags.

  • Regulatory pressure – European roasters have been stockpiling ahead of the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) that comes into force at the end of 2025, drawing beans out of certified warehouses into private storage.

Connection to Soaring Prices

The fall in stocks coincided with a dramatic rise in prices. In August, the ICO Composite Indicator Price (I-CIP) climbed 14.6% to 297.05 US cents per pound, the highest since 2024. With inventories shrinking, the likelihood of further price volatility is increasing, especially if supply disruptions persist.

Regional Dynamics

  • South America posted the steepest decline, with exports down 18.5%, driven by a 28.6% fall in Brazil.

  • Asia & Oceania moved in the opposite direction, growing exports 22.7%, led by Vietnam (+29.4%) and Indonesia (+20.4%).

  • Africa also contributed positively, with exports rising 4.4%, thanks to strong performance in Uganda (+51.4%) and Ethiopia (+12.5%).

  • Mexico & Central America recorded moderate growth of 7.2%, helping to diversify global supply, though not enough to offset South America’s losses.

What It Means for the Market

Industry experts warn that the current drawdown in stocks leaves the coffee market more vulnerable to external shocks. Further weather events in Brazil or Vietnam could deepen the supply gap, while the EUDR may slow exports to Europe. Rising shipping and labor costs add another layer of pressure on the supply chain, feeding into higher costs for roasters and consumers alike.

Outlook

The ICO emphasized that stock levels will remain a critical indicator for the market in the coming months. Any further declines could trigger another round of price surges, prolonging uncertainty for producers, traders, and consumers. With prices already at historic highs and inventories at multi-year lows, coffee is entering one of its most volatile periods in recent memory

India Cuts GST on Coffee to 5% in Landmark Tax Overhaul

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New Delhi, September 4, 2025 (Qahwa World) – The Indian government has announced a sweeping reform of its Goods and Services Tax (GST), slashing rates on coffee and other food products from 12%–18% down to just 5%. The decision, taken during the 56th GST Council meeting chaired by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman, marks one of the most significant tax changes since the GST system was introduced in 2017.

The reform simplifies India’s indirect tax structure into two main slabs—5% for essential and merit goods, and 18% as the standard rate—alongside a new 40% rate for de-merit goods such as tobacco and luxury items. The reduced rates, including the cut on coffee, will take effect from September 22, 2025, coinciding with the Navratri festival.

Coffee Industry Among Key Beneficiaries

Coffee has been placed in the merit category, meaning products that previously attracted 12% or 18% GST—such as roasted beans, instant coffee, and other processed coffee items—will now be taxed at only 5%.

Industry experts expect this move to have a ripple effect across the entire coffee value chain:

  • Growers and processors are likely to benefit from stronger domestic demand, as lower retail prices could encourage greater consumption.

  • Retailers and cafés may see a boost in sales volumes, with increased affordability improving consumer access to both mainstream and specialty coffee.

  • Consumers will directly benefit from reduced prices, especially as food and beverage costs have risen sharply in recent years.

A Broader Economic Push

The decision is part of a wider strategy aimed at easing the cost of living, stimulating consumption, and simplifying India’s tax regime. Alongside coffee, the rate cut covers other everyday items including chocolates, butter, ghee, sauces, noodles, and packaged snacks.

“This rationalisation is designed to make GST simpler, more transparent, and more consumer-friendly,” Finance Minister Sitharaman said after the council meeting, stressing that the two-slab system will also reduce compliance burdens for businesses.

Looking Ahead

India—already one of the world’s largest producers of Arabica and Robusta—is expected to see a surge in domestic coffee consumption following the tax cut. Analysts suggest the move could help narrow the cultural gap between tea and coffee, while further boosting India’s vibrant café culture and specialty coffee sector.

The GST overhaul signals a structural shift in India’s economic policy, and for coffee, it may represent the beginning of a new chapter where affordability fuels greater appreciation of the drink across the country.

Return of Elite GESHA Coffee from El Salvador Celebrated with a Stylish Event in Tallinn

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Tallinn, September 4, 2025 (Qahwa World) – Coffee People marked the grand return of the legendary GESHA coffee to the Estonian market with a special celebration at the Chin Chin wine bar in Tallinn’s Kalamaja district.

Given the uniqueness of GESHA, it was brewed using the Chemex method and served in champagne glasses, alongside espresso for comparison. Guests enjoyed coffee tastings, food pairings, and a special GESHA pairing with Blanc de Noir champagne. The event was hosted by well-known actress and musician Kristel Aaslaid, with music by DJ Olavi Lõpp.

Originating from Ethiopia, GESHA is a variety derived from the Typica coffee tree. The cultivar is known for its low yields and demanding cultivation, requiring patience, space, and precision, but rewarding growers with exceptional cup quality. Coffee People first introduced GESHA to Estonia in 2017. For this occasion, Salvadoran farmer Emilio López, who grows GESHA in El Salvador, attended the event and shared: “Many farmers are hesitant to take the risk of growing this variety, but when everything goes right, it truly becomes the king of coffee.”

The exclusivity of GESHA is also reflected in its price. It is currently the most expensive coffee on the Estonian market, selling for more than €100 per kilogram, comparable to the price of premium champagne served alongside it during the event.

Coffee People founders Annar Alas and Heili Politanov visited El Salvador last year to meet Emilio López in person and place an order for the new harvest. “After many years of work and anticipation, we are once again ready to share GESHA with you. It is unique not only in its flavor profile but also in the story behind it. Recognized multiple times as the best coffee in the world, I am personally thrilled that it is once again available on the Estonian market,” said Alas.

Coffee Prices Continue to Rise as Global Supplies Decline

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Dubai, 4 September 2025 (Qahwa World) – Coffee prices closed higher on Wednesday amid tightening global supplies, with both arabica and robusta contracts gaining momentum. December arabica futures (KCZ25) rose by +3.30 cents (+0.89%), while November robusta (RMX25) advanced by +55 USD (+1.25%), bouncing back from a recent 1.5-week low.

The International Coffee Organization (ICO) reported that global coffee exports in July dropped -1.6% year-on-year to 11.6 million bags, while cumulative exports for October to July slipped -0.3% to 115.6 million bags. This contraction, combined with falling exchange-monitored inventories, supported the market. ICE-monitored robusta inventories fell to a 1-month low of 6,552 lots, while arabica stocks declined to a 1.25-year low of 686,863 bags.

Concerns about tighter U.S. coffee supplies also added support, as American buyers canceled contracts for Brazilian coffee following the 50% tariffs imposed on Brazilian exports to the U.S. Since Brazil supplies about a third of unroasted coffee to the American market, the move is further tightening availability.

In Brazil, above-average rainfall has eased crop concerns ahead of the crucial flowering period. Somar Meteorologia reported that Minas Gerais, the country’s largest arabica-growing area, received 163% of the historical average rainfall during the last week of August. Meanwhile, the harvest is nearly complete, with Cooxupé, Brazil’s largest cooperative, announcing that 94.9% of its members’ harvest was done by August 29, while Safras & Mercado estimated the national harvest at 99% complete as of August 20. Despite this, export data reflects a slowdown, with Brazil’s Ministry of Trade reporting that July unroasted coffee exports plunged -20.4% y/y to 161,000 MT, and exporter group Cecafé noting that green coffee shipments fell -28% y/y to 2.4 million bags, including a -49% drop in robusta exports.

Vietnam, the world’s leading robusta producer, continues to face drought-related challenges. Production for the 2023/24 crop fell -20% y/y to 1.47 MMT, the smallest in four years, while 2024 exports declined -17.1% y/y to 1.35 MMT. The Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association has revised its 2024/25 production outlook downward to 26.5 million bags, though the National Statistics Office reported a +6.9% y/y increase in January–July 2025 exports, reaching 1.05 MMT.

Looking ahead, the USDA’s Foreign Agriculture Service projects that world coffee production in 2025/26 will climb +2.5% y/y to a record 178.7 million bags. This includes a -1.7% decline in arabica output to 97 million bags and a +7.9% increase in robusta to 81.6 million bags, with ending stocks expected to rise +4.9% to 22.8 million bags. However, trader Volcafé forecasts a global arabica deficit of -8.5 million bags for 2025/26, deeper than the -5.5 million bag deficit recorded in 2024/25, marking the fifth consecutive year of arabica shortfalls despite stronger robusta production.

“Polpanorte”.. Brazil’s #1 Açaí Brand Begins Its Middle East Launch from Dubai

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DUBAI, 4 September 2025 (Qahwa World) – Brazil’s number one açaí brand, Polpanorte, is set to make waves in the Middle East with its debut in the UAE. The brand, founded in 1995 in Japurá, Brazil, is best known for its signature açaí, followed by frozen fruit pulps and creamy sorbets.

Polpanorte’s reputation for quality has reached far beyond Brazil, winning customers across the Americas, Europe, and Asia. Now, the UAE’s thriving coffee and café industry is ready to welcome this iconic brand.

What is Açaí?
Açaí is a type of dark purple berry that grows on the açaí palm in the Amazon rainforest of Brazil. It is widely recognized as a “superfood” thanks to its richness in antioxidants, fiber, and vitamins, and is commonly consumed in the form of juices or frozen bowls mixed with fruits and nuts. Its high nutritional value has made it a favorite choice among health-conscious consumers and athletes around the world.

A Global Brand with Brazilian Roots

Polpanorte’s story began as a small family business serving local communities. Over the years, it expanded rapidly, investing in innovation and state-of-the-art facilities, including a new 20,000 m² industrial plant in Benevides in 2021. The introduction of its creamy, flavorful açaí in 2015 positioned Polpanorte as a market leader. And now in 2025, the brand has landed on the shores of the UAE, opening a new chapter in showing what quality açaí should taste like in the region.

Factories in both Benevides and Japura have a combined production capacity of 160 tons of açaí per day. With this, Polpanorte became the largest açaí producer in Brazil a few years ago. The brand is also present in more than 20 countries, including Europe, Latin America, and the United States.

Why the Middle East?

The GCC is a hub for culinary innovation and cultural diversity. With residents and tourists indulging in specialty coffee shops and juice bars daily, the market is ideal for superfoods like açaí. Healthy dining is not just a trend here, it has become a lifestyle. Whether it’s a post-workout smoothie, a weekend brunch, or a quick coffee stop, açaí has become a go-to option, loved by the local and expatriate population alike. Polpanorte’s vegan and halal-certified products are tailored to meet the needs of this diverse audience.

Beyond the Bowl

Polpanorte products are versatile and can be used in desserts and beverages, while cafés across the GCC will mainly use the açaí for bowls and smoothies blended or served with fruits, peanut butter, and other add-ons. This flexibility makes it a strong partner for café owners and even consumers at home eager to innovate and create something unique.

Polpanorte’s Promise

“From the Amazon rainforest to Dubai, our mission is to bring authentic flavors and healthy choices to every table,” says a Polpanorte spokesperson. “The UAE’s café culture is dynamic, and we are excited to be part of it.” Very soon the products will be available in leading retail locations in the UAE too.

A member of the Zeppone Group, Polpanorte has two factories in Japurá, Paraná, and Benevides, Pará, and sells over 130 products at approximately 40,000 points of sale in Brazil through more than 80 distributors, which helps maintain its national leadership.

ICO: Coffee Prices Hit Historic Surge as Exports Decline

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Dubai, September 3, 2025 (Qahwa World) – The International Coffee Organization (ICO) in its August 2025 report revealed unprecedented shifts in the global coffee market, with the ICO Composite Indicator Price (I-CIP) rising by 14.6% to 297.05 US cents per pound – its highest level since 2024 and 24.3% higher year-on-year. At the same time, the report highlighted that global green coffee exports continued to contract for the sixth consecutive month, underscoring the dual pressure of soaring prices and shrinking supplies.

Historic Price Surge
According to the ICO, all coffee groups recorded strong gains. Robusta led the surge with a 19.1% increase to 199.13 US cents per pound, while Colombian Milds, Brazilian Naturals, and Other Milds rose between 12% and 14%. Futures prices also jumped sharply, with New York contracts up 13.6% and London contracts up 18.2%, signaling broad-based upward momentum.

Market Drivers
The report identified multiple factors fueling the rally:

  • The United States’ 50% tariff on Brazilian coffee, slowing down commercialization.

  • Brazil’s government support through the Funcafé fund, allocating BRL 6.8 billion (USD 1.29 billion) to finance the 2025/26 harvest.

  • Reports of lower bean density in Brazil despite large screen size, reducing crop estimates.

  • European roasters stockpiling ahead of the EU’s Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) deadline in December 2025.

  • A minor frost in Brazil damaging up to half a million bags.

  • Roasters increasing long positions in futures markets to hedge against further price hikes.

Export Downturn
The ICO report also showed global green coffee exports reaching 10.3 million bags in July 2025, down 0.7% from July 2024. South America posted the steepest decline (-18.5%), driven by Brazil’s 28.6% fall in shipments.

Regional Contrasts

  • Asia & Oceania exports surged by 22.7%, led by Vietnam (+29.4%) and Indonesia (+20.4%).

  • Africa’s exports rose 4.4%, with Uganda (+51.4%) and Ethiopia (+12.5%) as key contributors.

  • Mexico & Central America posted a moderate increase of 7.2%.

Looking Ahead
The ICO emphasized that the combination of rising prices and falling exports places the global coffee market in a volatile phase. With the EUDR coming into effect by year-end and climate-related risks looming over major producers, coffee is set to remain one of the most vulnerable agricultural commodities to both economic and environmental shocks.