Tag: Coffee Prices

Coffee Prices Slide on Improved Supply Outlook

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Dubai – Qahwa World

Coffee prices extended their week-long decline on Wednesday, pressured by signs of improving global supply. March arabica coffee (KCH26) closed down 8.45 cents (-2.66%), while March ICE robusta coffee (RMH26) fell 49 points (-1.29%).

Arabica prices dropped to a 5.75-month low, and robusta touched a six-week low. The market has been weighed down by favourable weather and rising production expectations, particularly in Brazil and Vietnam.

Above-average rainfall in Brazil has eased concerns about dryness in key growing regions. Somar Meteorologia reported that Minas Gerais—the country’s largest Arabica-producing state—received 69.8 mm of rain in the week ended January 30, or 117% of the historical average.

Brazil’s supply outlook also turned more bearish after Conab, the country’s crop forecasting agency, raised its 2025 coffee production estimate by 2.4% to 56.54 million bags, up from 55.20 million bags projected in September.

Robusta prices have been further pressured by strong export and production prospects in Vietnam, the world’s largest robusta producer. Vietnam’s National Statistics Office reported that 2025 coffee exports rose 17.5% year over year to 1.58 million metric tonnes. Meanwhile, Vietnam’s 2025/26 coffee production is projected to increase 6% year over year to 1.76 million metric tonnes (29.4 million bags), a four-year high. The Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association has also said output could rise 10% from the previous season if weather conditions remain favourable.

Rising exchange inventories have added to bearish sentiment. ICE-monitored Arabica inventories rebounded to 461,829 bags on January 7, a 3.25-month high, after falling to a 1.75-year low in mid-November. ICE robusta inventories also recovered, climbing to a two-month high of 4,662 lots after reaching a 13-month low in December.

Some factors have provided limited support. Brazil’s coffee exports declined sharply in December, according to Cecafe. Total green coffee exports fell 18.4% year over year to 2.86 million bags, with Arabica exports down 10% and Robusta exports down 61%.

The International Coffee Organization reported that global coffee exports for the current October–September marketing year slipped 0.3% year over year to 138.66 million bags, signalling tighter trade flows.

Looking ahead, the USDA’s Foreign Agriculture Service projects global coffee production in 2025/26 will rise 2.0% year over year to a record 178.85 million bags. Arabica production is forecast to fall 4.7% to 95.52 million bags, while robusta output is expected to jump 10.9% to 83.33 million bags. Brazil’s production is projected to decline 3.1% to 63 million bags, while Vietnam’s output is forecast to rise 6.2% to a four-year high of 30.8 million bags. Global ending stocks are expected to fall 5.4% to 20.15 million bags.

Arabica Coffee Gains on Technical Support Amid Mixed Market Performance

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Dubai – Qahwa WORLD

March Arabica coffee (KCH26) concluded Monday’s session with a gain of +1.00 (+0.30%), while March ICE Robusta coffee (RMH26) saw a notable decline, closing down -84 (-2.04%) at a four-week low. The market showed a mixed performance as substantial rainfall in Brazil improved yield prospects but pressured prices. Somar Meteorologia reported that Minas Gerais, Brazil’s premier Arabica region, received 69.8 mm of rain during the week ending January 30, representing 117% of the historical average.

Further weighing on the market, Brazil’s crop agency, Conab, recently increased its 2025 total coffee production forecast by 2.4% to 56.54 million bags. Meanwhile, Robusta prices faced significant headwinds from surging exports in Vietnam, the world’s top Robusta producer. Official statistics from January 5 indicated a +17.5% year-over-year jump in Vietnamese coffee exports to 1.58 MMT. Production for the 2025/26 cycle in Vietnam is projected to rise +6% to 1.76 MMT, a four-year high, with Vicofa suggesting a potential 10% increase if weather remains favorable.

The recovery of ICE-monitored inventories has also exerted downward pressure on prices. Arabica stocks climbed to a 3.25-month high of 461,829 bags in early January, recovering from a multi-year low recorded in November. Similarly, Robusta inventories reached a two-month high of 4,662 lots last Monday. On the supportive side, Cecafe reported an -18.4% decline in Brazil’s December green coffee exports, with Arabica shipments down -10% and Robusta exports falling sharply by -61%.

Globally, the International Coffee Organization noted a marginal -0.3% decrease in exports for the current marketing year. However, the USDA’s Foreign Agriculture Service predicts record global production of 178.848 million bags for 2025/26, a +2.0% increase. This forecast anticipates a -4.7% drop in Arabica output alongside a +10.9% surge in Robusta production. Ending stocks for the 2025/26 period are expected to decline by -5.4% to 20.148 million bags.

Coffee Prices Sink as Brazil Rainfall Outlook Improves

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Dubai – Qahwa World

Coffee futures faced a sharp retreat on Friday, with Arabica falling -13.25 (-3.85%) to a five-and-a-half-month low, and Robusta sliding -66 (-1.58%) to a three-and-a-half-week low. The primary downward pressure stems from weather forecasts predicting steady, beneficial rains over the next week in Minas Gerais, Brazil’s premier coffee-growing region.

The bearish sentiment is further reinforced by an ample supply outlook. Brazil’s crop agency, Conab, recently raised its 2025 production estimate to 56.54 million bags, a 2.4% increase from previous forecasts. Simultaneously, Vietnam—the world’s top Robusta producer—reported a 17.5% year-over-year surge in 2025 exports, reaching 1.58 MMT. Vietnam’s 2025/26 output is projected to climb another 6% to a four-year high, potentially reaching 10% growth if favorable weather holds.

Inventory recoveries at the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) have added to the price pressure. Arabica inventories rose to a two-and-a-half-month high of 461,829 bags in mid-January, while Robusta inventories hit a seven-week high of 4,609 lots last Friday.

However, some factors continue to provide underlying support. Cecafe reported that Brazil’s December green coffee exports dropped 18.4% to 2.86 million bags, with Robusta exports specifically plummeting 61%. Additionally, while rains are forecasted, recent data shows that Minas Gerais received only 53% of its historical average rainfall in mid-January.

Looking ahead, the USDA’s Foreign Agriculture Service projects record global production of 178.848 million bags for 2025/26. While Arabica production may see a 4.7% dip, a significant 10.9% increase in Robusta output is expected to drive global totals to new heights, even as global ending stocks are forecasted to tighten slightly.

Brazil Rain and Vietnam Surplus Sink Coffee Futures

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NEW YORK — Qahwa World

Coffee futures saw a sharp downturn on Friday, with Arabica hitting a five-and-a-half-month low and Robusta dropping to a three-and-a-half-week trough. March Arabica (KCH26) finished the session down 13.25 cents (-3.845%), while March ICE Robusta (RMH26) fell by $66 (-1.58%).

The primary pressure stems from the weather outlook in South America. Forecasts now indicate consistent rainfall across Minas Gerais, Brazil’s premier growing region, for the upcoming week. This shift toward a more favorable moisture profile has dampened the recent rally.

Further bearish sentiment is driven by a bolstered supply outlook. On December 4, Brazil’s Conab increased its 2025 production forecast by 2.4%, now estimating a total of 56.54 million bags. Simultaneously, Vietnam—the world’s top Robusta producer—continues to flood the market. Vietnam’s National Statistics Office noted a 17.5% year-over-year surge in 2025 exports, totaling 1.58 million metric tons. Production for the 2025/26 cycle is expected to climb 6% to a four-year high of 29.4 million bags, with Vicofa suggesting output could rise by 10% if conditions remain optimal.

Market inventories are also seeing a notable recovery. ICE-monitored Arabica stocks rebounded from a nearly two-year low in November to reach 461,829 bags as of mid-January. Robusta stocks followed a similar path, recovering from a one-year low in December to reach a nearly two-month high of 4,609 lots this past Friday.

However, some factors continue to provide an underlying floor for prices. Cecafe reported a sharp 18.4% drop in Brazilian green coffee exports for December, with Robusta shipments specifically tanking by 61%. Furthermore, recent data from Somar Meteorologia highlighted that rainfall in Minas Gerais was recently only 53% of the historical average, while the ICO reported a slight 0.3% dip in global exports for the current marketing year.

Looking ahead, the USDA Foreign Agriculture Service (FAS) projects record global production of 178.848 million bags for 2025/26. While the agency expects a 4.7% dip in Arabica output, a projected 10.9% jump in Robusta production is set to offset those losses. Despite the record harvest, FAS anticipates ending stocks will tighten by 5.4% to roughly 20.15 million bags.

Coffee Prices Drop as Brazilian Real Weakens

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Dubai – Qahwa World

Coffee prices fell sharply on Wednesday after the Brazilian real lost some of its recent gains, prompting traders to liquidate long positions in coffee futures.

March Arabica (KCH26) closed down 16.25 points (-4.42%).

March Robusta (RMH26) fell 130 points (-3.04%).

Earlier in the session, Arabica had climbed to a two-and-a-half-week high, while Robusta reached a one-and-three-quarter-month peak before giving up gains. The weaker real makes Brazilian coffee more competitive for export, adding pressure on futures prices.

  • Key Factors Driving the Market

Supporting Prices:

Brazilian coffee exports declined in December by 18.4%, totaling 2.86 million bags, with Arabica down 10% and Robusta down 61% year-on-year.

Below-average rainfall in Minas Gerais, Brazil’s main Arabica region, has raised concerns about supply, as the area received just 33.9 mm of rain last week—around half the historical average.

Pressuring Prices:

ICE coffee inventories have recovered after hitting multi-year lows, which weighs on prices.

Vietnam, the world’s top Robusta producer, saw its 2025 exports jump 17.5% to 1.58 million metric tons, with production rising 6% year-on-year.

Global coffee supply forecasts show a modest increase in total production, with Arabica down and Robusta up, creating mixed signals for the market.

  • Market Outlook

Brazil’s 2025/26 production is projected to fall to 63 million bags, while Vietnam’s output is expected to rise to 30.8 million bags—a four-year high. Ending stocks for the season are forecasted to decline to 20.148 million bags, down 5.4% from the previous year, keeping supply concerns on traders’ radar.

Coffee Prices Jump as Brazilian Real Strengthens

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Dubai – Qahwa World

Coffee futures moved sharply higher on Tuesday, supported by a strong Brazilian real that reduced export incentives from the world’s largest coffee-producing country.

March arabica coffee futures climbed more than 3 percent, reaching their highest level in two weeks, while March robusta contracts also posted solid gains. Market participants pointed to currency movements and tightening export flows from Brazil as key drivers behind the rally.

  • Brazilian Real Boosts Coffee Markets

The Brazilian real strengthened to its highest level in roughly 20 months against the U.S. dollar, making coffee exports less attractive for Brazilian producers. As a result, exporters slowed sales, reducing supply availability on global markets and lifting futures prices.

Brazil remains the dominant supplier of arabica coffee, and shifts in its currency often have an immediate impact on international prices.

  • Exports Decline in Brazil

Recent export data added further support to prices. Brazil’s coffee exporters reported a sharp drop in green coffee shipments in December, with total exports falling more than 18 percent compared with the same period last year.

Arabica exports declined by double digits, while robusta shipments saw an even steeper year-over-year drop, signaling tighter short-term supply from Brazil.

  • Weather Concerns Add Support

Below-average rainfall in Brazil’s key growing regions also helped underpin prices. Minas Gerais, the country’s largest arabica-producing state, received significantly less rainfall than normal during mid-January, raising concerns about crop development during a critical period.

  • Inventory Recovery Caps Gains

Despite the bullish momentum, rising exchange-monitored inventories limited upside potential. Arabica stockpiles tracked by the exchange have rebounded from multi-year lows seen in November, while robusta inventories have also increased from recent lows.

The recovery in inventories suggests that near-term supply conditions may be less constrained than previously feared.

  • Global Supply Outlook Remains Mixed

Looking ahead, expectations of ample global production continue to weigh on longer-term price prospects. Brazil’s crop agency recently raised its forecast for the country’s 2025 coffee harvest, while Vietnam reported strong export growth and rising production estimates.

Vietnam, the world’s leading producer of robusta coffee, is projected to increase output further in the upcoming season, assuming favorable weather conditions persist.

At the same time, international data points to signs of tightening global availability. Worldwide coffee exports have edged lower during the current marketing year, and global ending stocks are forecast to decline despite record production levels.

  • Market Balance Still Fragile

Analysts note that coffee markets remain highly sensitive to currency movements, weather developments, and export flows. While supply projections appear comfortable on paper, any disruption in Brazil or Vietnam could quickly reignite volatility.

For now, strength in the Brazilian real and slowing exports have given coffee prices fresh upward momentum.

 

Brazilian Coffee Ends 2025 with Record Revenues Exceeding $15.6 Billion

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São Paulo – Qahwa World

In a detailed economic report reflecting major shifts in global commodity markets, the Brazilian Coffee Exporters Council (Cecafé) announced the conclusion of 2025 with an unprecedented financial performance. Despite ongoing supply chain disruptions and geopolitical volatility, Brazil achieved a historic record in coffee export revenues, reinforcing its position as a leading force in the global agricultural economy.

  • Cecafé: The Reference Authority for Data and Policy

The Brazilian Coffee Exporters Council (Cecafé) is the official body representing coffee exporters in Brazil and is responsible for monitoring coffee trade flows to more than 120 countries worldwide. According to Cecafé’s December 2025 report, these exceptional financial results demonstrate the sector’s ability to adapt to global price fluctuations, supported by strategic investments in quality enhancement and value creation for Brazilian coffee in international markets.

  • Financial Performance Analysis: Value Growth Amid Lower Volumes

Based on data analyzed by Cecafé, Brazil’s coffee export revenues reached $15.586 billion in 2025, marking a 24.1% increase compared with the previous year. This figure represents the highest export revenue level in Brazil’s coffee trade history.

Notably, this record revenue was achieved despite a 20.8% decline in shipment volumes. Brazil exported 40.049 million 60-kg bags in 2025, down from more than 50 million bags in 2024. The increase in revenues was driven by a sharp rise in the average export price, which reached $389.17 per bag, up 56.4% year on year. This pricing dynamic allowed exporters to generate higher returns with lower volumes, supporting crop sustainability and helping preserve domestic stocks affected by adverse climatic conditions.

  • A Reshaped Trade Map: Germany Takes the Lead

The year 2025 marked a significant shift in Brazil’s coffee export destinations. According to Cecafé, the United States fell to second place among Brazil’s largest coffee importers, while Germany emerged as the leading destination.

Germany imported 5.409 million bags, representing a 6.1% increase, while U.S. imports declined sharply by 33.9%, totaling 5.381 million bags. Cecafé attributes this contraction in the U.S. market primarily to the imposition of 50% import tariffs on Brazilian coffee during parts of the year, which reduced the product’s competitiveness and redirected volumes toward European and Asian markets.

In parallel, Japan recorded growth of 19.4%, while China posted a 19.5% increase, highlighting the success of Cecafé’s market diversification strategy and its focus on emerging economic powers in Asia.

  • Differentiated Coffees: Driving Qualitative Growth

Cecafé’s report also highlights the strong performance of the “Differentiated Coffees” segment, which includes coffees certified for high quality standards or sustainable production practices. This segment generated $3.525 billion in revenue, accounting for 22.6% of total export earnings.

Although shipment volumes in this category declined by 15.1%, their total value increased by 39.1%. Márcio Ferreira, President of Cecafé, noted that global consumers are increasingly willing to pay premium prices for coffees that ensure environmental and social sustainability—an area in which Brazil has strengthened its position through advanced agricultural technologies.

  • Logistics Challenges: The Cost of Success

Despite the strong financial results, 2025 was not without challenges. Cecafé reported severe logistical constraints at Brazilian ports, particularly at the Port of Santos. According to the report, 55% of vessels experienced schedule delays, disrupting the shipment of thousands of containers each month.

These delays resulted in operational losses amounting to millions of Brazilian reais, driven by demurrage charges and additional storage costs. Cecafé emphasized that improving port infrastructure and ensuring a steady supply of containers are essential to sustaining record export performance in the coming years.

  • Outlook for 2026: Sustainability and Innovation

Cecafé’s December 2025 report concludes with an optimistic outlook led by Marcos Matos, CEO of the Brazilian Coffee Exporters Council. He stated that the “Cafés do Brasil” brand has become a global benchmark, successfully combining large-scale production with environmental responsibility.

According to the report, Brazil—through Cecafé—not only supplies approximately one-third of global coffee demand, but also leads efforts in agricultural digitalization, labor rights protection, and forest conservation, positioning Brazilian coffee as a reliable and sustainable choice for the future.

  • Conclusion

Generating more than $15.6 billion in export revenues in a single year is not merely a statistical milestone, but a clear indicator of the strength and global standing of Brazilian coffee. It also underscores the central role played by the Brazilian Coffee Exporters Council (Cecafé) in guiding the sector toward new levels of financial and professional achievement.

Coffee Prices in Russia Keep Climbing: How Much Does a Cup Cost Now?

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Prices in retail and cafés continue to climb as the market braces for further increases in 2026

Moscow – Qahwa World

Russia’s coffee market experienced a sharp rise in prices throughout 2025, a trend that has become clearly visible to consumers both in retail stores and in cafés. As 2026 begins, prices for instant coffee and coffee beans remain at elevated levels, reinforcing concerns that a daily cup of coffee is becoming an increasingly expensive habit.

  • Sustained Growth Over Three Years

Over the past three years, coffee prices in Russia have followed a steady upward trajectory. According to data from Rosstat, the average price of one kilogram of instant coffee stood at 2,638 rubles in January 2022. By the end of that year, the price had risen by approximately 25%. Although a brief decline was recorded in 2023, it proved short-lived.

From January 2024 onward, prices resumed their upward movement, reaching 3,500 rubles per kilogram by December. In November 2025, instant coffee hit a new record high of 4,152 rubles per kilogram. Overall, instant coffee prices increased by nearly 60% over three years.

Coffee beans followed a more gradual but largely uninterrupted upward path. In January 2022, one kilogram cost 1,136 rubles, rising to 1,490 rubles by the end of that year. Prices remained relatively stable throughout 2023 before entering a new growth phase in 2024. By November 2025, the price of coffee beans reached 2,061 rubles per kilogram—an increase of roughly 80% over three years.

Industry experts note that official statistics reflect average market dynamics, which may underestimate the real financial impact felt by consumers in day-to-day purchases.

  • Key Drivers Behind the Price Increase

At the beginning of 2025, market forecasts suggested coffee prices could rise by 30–40%. In practice, price increases in several segments exceeded those expectations.

Market participants report that over the past two to three years, prices for many popular brands of ground and whole-bean coffee in retail stores have risen by 50–100% compared to 2021 levels.

The primary drivers of this trend include Russia’s near-total reliance on imported coffee, elevated global prices for coffee raw materials, and fluctuations in the ruble exchange rate. Additional pressure has come from higher costs associated with international payments, logistics, and packaging materials, all of which increase production costs before roasting even begins.

  • Impact on Cafés

Rising raw material costs have also affected the foodservice sector. During 2025, prices for coffee-based beverages increased by an average of 15–30% year-on-year. In certain formats—particularly 100% arabica and specialty coffee—the increase reached 35–45%.

In many cases, cafés implemented price increases gradually, introducing several small adjustments over the course of the year rather than a single sharp hike.

At the same time, industry representatives emphasize that profit margins remain limited. The cost of coffee itself accounts for only a small portion of the final price of a cup, while operating expenses—such as rent, wages, and taxes—make up the bulk of costs.

  • Price Outlook for 2026

Forecasting coffee prices for 2026 remains challenging due to multiple external variables, including weather conditions in producing countries, exchange rate movements, and the stability of global supply chains. Potential changes in tax policy could also add further pressure.

Current expectations point to continued price growth, though at a more moderate pace. Under a baseline scenario, prices could rise by 8–15% over the year if currency and logistics conditions remain relatively stable. In the event of renewed volatility, increases could be higher, particularly in higher-quality coffee segments.

Despite rising prices, demand for coffee in Russia remains resilient. Strong consumer attachment to the product has allowed the market to adapt to higher price levels without a significant decline in consumption.

  • A New Phase for the Coffee Market

Experts broadly agree that Russia’s coffee market is entering a new phase. While the period of sharp and sudden price shocks may be easing, a return to previously low price levels appears unlikely in the near term.

Instead, the market is expected to settle into a phase of relative price stabilization at higher levels, with future pricing shaped by currency dynamics, competition, and consumers’ ability to adjust to the evolving market environment.

Coffee Prices Rise as Dollar Weakens

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Dubai – Qahwa World

Coffee futures ended higher on Friday, with robusta reaching a 1.5-month high, as the U.S. dollar fell to its lowest level in three and a half months. March arabica (KCH26) increased by 0.92%, while March robusta (RMH26) gained 2.88%. The weaker dollar prompted short-covering across commodities, including coffee.

Brazilian coffee exports have declined, supporting prices. Cecafe reported that December’s total green coffee exports fell 18.4% year-on-year to 2.86 million bags. Arabica shipments dropped 10% to 2.6 million bags, while robusta exports plunged 61% to 222,147 bags. Below-average rainfall in Minas Gerais, Brazil’s largest arabica-growing region, also added upward pressure, with Somar Meteorologia reporting only 33.9 mm of rain for the week ending January 16, just 53% of the historical average.

At the same time, inventories monitored by ICE have rebounded, putting some pressure on prices. Arabica stocks rose to a 2.5-month high of 461,829 bags, after reaching a 1.75-year low in November. Robusta inventories recovered to a 1.75-month high of 4,609 lots, following a 1-year low in December.

Global supply trends remain mixed. Brazil’s crop agency Conab raised its estimate for 2025 coffee production by 2.4% to 56.54 million bags. Vietnam, the world’s largest robusta producer, reported a 17.5% year-on-year increase in coffee exports for 2025, reaching 1.58 million metric tons. Its coffee output is projected to rise 6% to 29.4 million bags, marking a four-year high.

Overall, global coffee production is expected to grow, with USDA forecasts projecting a 2% increase in 2025/26 to a record 178.85 million bags. Arabica output is anticipated to fall 4.7% to 95.52 million bags, while robusta production is expected to climb 10.9% to 83.33 million bags. Brazil’s output is forecasted to decline 3.1% to 63 million bags, while Vietnam’s is projected to rise 6.2% to 30.8 million bags. Ending stocks are expected to drop 5.4% to 20.15 million bags.

The coffee market is navigating a mix of forces: a weaker dollar and tight Brazilian exports support prices, while recovering inventories and record Vietnamese production weigh on the market. Traders and industry observers will continue watching weather conditions, export flows, and inventory levels closely as the year progresses.

Brazil Coffee Export Revenue Hits Record Despite Falling Volumes

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Dubai – Qahwa World

Brazil’s coffee export revenue reached a historic high of $15.6 billion in 2025, despite a significant decline in shipment volumes, according to the latest report from Cecafé, the Brazilian Coffee Exporters Council.

Released on January 19, the report shows that total coffee exports fell by more than 10 million 60-kilogram bags, dropping from a record 50,584,170 bags in 2024 to 40,049,222 bags in 2025—a decrease of over 20 percent. Even so, the 2025 figure remains higher than exports recorded in any year between 2020 and 2023.

Cecafé President Márco Ferreira attributed the surge in export earnings to steadily rising coffee prices throughout 2025. He noted that higher average monthly prices, combined with continued investment by Brazilian growers in technology, innovation, and quality, helped elevate both the standard and market value of Brazilian coffee.

The report also highlights the impact of United States tariffs, which led to a 55 percent decline in exports to the U.S. between August and November. The tariffs included a 40 percent national emergency levy, introduced on July 30, alongside a 10 percent reciprocal tariff. Both measures were lifted on November 12.

As a result of reduced U.S. demand, Germany emerged as Brazil’s largest coffee importer in 2025, followed by Italy, Japan, and Belgium.

Looking ahead, Ferreira expects Brazilian coffee exports in 2026 to once again exceed 40 million 60-kilogram bags, reinforcing the country’s position as the world’s largest coffee producer. By comparison, the record 2024 harvest generated approximately $12.5 billion in export revenue, while the 2023 crop earned $6.2 billion.

Coffee Prices Climb as Rain Forecasts in Brazil Remain Low

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Dubai – Qahwa World

Coffee futures rebounded today following early declines, buoyed by weather forecasts signaling limited rainfall in Brazil’s key coffee-producing regions over the coming week. March arabica (KCH26) gained +1.40 points (+0.39%), while March ICE robusta (RMH26) rose +52 points (+1.31%).

Earlier in the session, arabica fell to a 1.5-week low, pressured by a stronger U.S. dollar, as the DXY index reached a six-week high.

Last week, arabica prices surged to a one-month high amid below-average precipitation in Brazil, the world’s largest arabica coffee exporter. Data from Somar Meteorologia showed that Minas Gerais, Brazil’s main arabica-growing state, received just 26.5 mm of rainfall during the week ending January 9 — only 29% of the historical average.

Shrinking inventories on ICE exchanges are also lending support to prices. Arabica stocks tracked by ICE dropped to a 1.75-year low of 398,645 bags on November 20, before climbing to a 2.5-month high of 461,829 bags last Wednesday. Robusta inventories fell to a one-year low of 4,012 lots on December 10 but recovered to a five-week high of 4,278 lots later in December.

However, a strong supply outlook remains a headwind. Brazil’s crop agency Conab raised its 2025 coffee production estimate by 2.4% in December to 56.54 million bags, up from the September projection of 55.20 million bags.

Vietnam, the largest robusta producer, is also expanding its output, which pressures robusta prices. Its 2025 coffee exports jumped 17.5% year-on-year to 1.58 million metric tons, according to the country’s National Statistics Office. Vietnam’s coffee production for 2025/26 is forecast to rise 6% year-on-year to 1.76 MMT (29.4 million bags), marking a four-year high, with the Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association projecting a potential 10% increase if weather conditions remain favorable.

Global coffee supply data show a mixed picture. The International Coffee Organization (ICO) reported November 7 that world coffee exports declined 0.3% year-on-year to 138.658 million bags for the current marketing year (October–September). Meanwhile, the USDA’s Foreign Agriculture Service predicted a 2% increase in global coffee production in 2025/26 to 178.848 million bags, driven by a 10.9% jump in robusta output to 83.333 million bags, despite a 4.7% drop in arabica production to 95.515 million bags. The report also projected Brazil’s production would fall 3.1% to 63 million bags, while Vietnam’s output rises 6.2% to a four-year high of 30.8 million bags. Ending stocks are expected to decline 5.4% to 20.148 million bags from 21.307 million bags in 2024/25.

Coffee Prices Rise on Brazil Dryness and Global Supply Dynamics

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Dubai – Qahwa World

Coffee markets moved higher today amid ongoing concerns over dry conditions in Brazil, the world’s largest arabica producer. March arabica futures (KCH26) rose +4.20 (+1.18%), while March robusta futures (RMH26) gained +36 (+0.92%).

The price gains follow last week’s rally, when arabica hit a one-month high due to below-average rainfall in Brazil. Somar Meteorologia reported that Minas Gerais, Brazil’s primary arabica-growing region, received just 26.5 mm of rain for the week ending January 9—only 29% of the historical average—raising fears of smaller harvests.

  • Inventory Levels Support Prices

Tighter stock levels are adding upward pressure on coffee prices. ICE-tracked arabica inventories fell to a 1.75-year low of 398,645 bags on November 20 but rebounded to 461,829 bags last Wednesday. ICE robusta inventories hit a one-year low of 4,012 lots on December 10, later rising to a five-week high of 4,278 lots.

  • Vietnam Exports and Global Supply Trends

While Brazilian dryness is bullish, rising robusta exports from Vietnam are weighing on prices. Vietnam exported 1.58 million metric tons of coffee in 2025, up 17.5% from the previous year. Vietnam’s 2025/26 coffee production is expected to reach 1.76 million metric tons (29.4 million bags), a four-year high. The Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association noted that output could increase 10% over the prior year if favorable weather continues.

Globally, coffee supplies are showing mixed signals. The International Coffee Organization reported a slight year-on-year decline in exports for the current marketing year (October–September), totaling 138.658 million bags. Meanwhile, the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) projects world coffee production in 2025/26 will hit a record 178.848 million bags, with arabica decreasing 4.7% to 95.515 million bags and robusta rising 10.9% to 83.333 million bags. Brazil’s production is expected to fall 3.1% to 63 million bags, while Vietnam’s output may climb 6.2% to 30.8 million bags. Ending stocks are projected to drop 5.4% to 20.148 million bags.

  • Outlook

Market watchers are balancing the bullish signals from Brazil’s dry weather and shrinking inventories against the bearish influence of rising Vietnamese supplies and higher global production forecasts. The net effect has been steady upward pressure on coffee prices, with both arabica and robusta futures posting notable gains in recent sessions.