Russian Instant Coffee Exports Rise 28% to $366 Million

Moscow – QAHWA WORLD

Russia recorded solid growth in its instant coffee exports in 2025, with total export value rising 28% year-on-year to exceed $366 million.

According to the Federal Center for Agricultural Export Development, Agroexport, citing expert estimates, the shipments included coffee extracts, essences, concentrates, and finished products based on them.

In volume terms, exports surpassed 51,000 tons during the year. No comparative data on year-on-year volume growth was disclosed.

Kazakhstan remained the leading destination market, with export revenues exceeding $131 million, compared with approximately $58 million in 2024, representing more than a twofold increase.

Belarus ranked next, importing nearly $95 million worth of products. Exports to Uzbekistan reached about $33 million, while Georgia imported more than $24 million. Shipments to Israel totaled close to $12 million.

In 2025, exports of this product category to Oman were also resumed, with shipments valued at over $120,000 following a previous توقف.

The figures highlight the continued concentration of Russian instant coffee exports in CIS markets, alongside efforts to re-expand into additional destinations amid steady regional demand for instant coffee products.

JDE Peet’s Reports 15.3% Growth: A New Era in Global Coffee

AMSTERDAM – QAHWA WORLD

In a year defined by unprecedented economic headwinds, JDE Peet’s (EURONEXT: JDEP) has delivered a powerful financial performance, proving the resilience of its global coffee portfolio. The company today reported an impressive 15.3% organic sales growth for 2025, successfully shielding its margins against a massive EUR 1.6 billion surge in cost inflation through disciplined pricing and high-impact innovation.

Mastering the Inflationary Storm

The results underscore JDE Peet’s ability to thrive in a volatile market. By balancing price adjustments with productivity gains, the company saw its organic adjusted EBIT climb to EUR 1.3 billion. Even more significant for investors was the robust cash generation, with free cash flow reaching EUR 1,130 million. This liquidity allowed the company to significantly deleverage its balance sheet, bringing net leverage down to a healthy 2.3x, while maintaining an underlying EPS of EUR 2.46.

Strategic Transformation: “Reignite the Amazing”

The cornerstone of this year’s success was the aggressive rollout of the Reignite the Amazing strategy. CEO Rafa Oliveira emphasized that the company is no longer just defending its position but is actively shaping the market. “Our strategy is delivering tangible results,” said Oliveira. “By focusing on our global powerhouses—Peet’s, L’OR, and Jacobs—we have simplified our organization and sharpened our competitive edge.”

To support this growth, the company advanced its EUR 500 million productivity program, achieving EUR 70 million in savings this year alone. This was driven by a bold operational overhaul, including the optimization of its manufacturing footprint with the closure of facilities in the U.K., Brazil, and the U.S. to ensure a leaner, more agile supply chain.

Regional Dominance and the “China Growth Engine”

JDE Peet’s performance in emerging markets was nothing short of extraordinary. The LARMEA region (Latin America, Russia, Middle East, and Africa) emerged as a primary growth driver, recording a staggering 39.7% organic sales increase. Meanwhile, in Asia, Peet’s China continued to defy regional trends with strong double-digit growth, proving the brand’s immense appeal to the new generation of specialty coffee consumers.

Innovation as a Global Catalyst

From the viral success of Dubai Chocolate to the technical sophistication of the L’OR Barista Absolu machine, JDE Peet’s has kept itself at the center of the global coffee conversation. The launch of Peet’s ready-to-drink Cold Brew and Popping Pearls has further solidified its presence in the fast-growing iced coffee segment, ensuring the company meets the evolving tastes of a younger, more diverse audience.

The KDP Merger: Final Countdown

The acquisition by Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP) is now entering its final phase. With 69% of shares already committed and all essential competition clearances secured, the EUR 31.85 per share offer is on track to close early in the second quarter of 2026. This transition marks the beginning of a new chapter where JDE Peet’s will combine its global coffee expertise with KDP’s distribution power to create an industry-leading powerhouse.

World of Coffee San Diego 2026: Last Chance for Early Bird Rates

SAN DIEGO, CALIFORNIA – QHWAW WORLD

The countdown has officially begun for the global specialty coffee community. With World of Coffee San Diego 2026 just around the corner, the Specialty Coffee Association (SCA) has announced that “Early Bird” registration rates are set to expire on March 1, 2026. This leaves attendees with just one week to take advantage of significant savings before prices increase.

A Strategic Hub for a Growing Industry

Set in the vibrant city of San Diego, this event is expected to be a cornerstone for coffee professionals and enthusiasts alike. From roasters and farmers to equipment suppliers and baristas, the exhibition serves as a premier platform for networking, discovering innovations, and exploring the trends shaping the future of the specialty coffee market.

Badge Options and Pricing Details

The 3-Day World of Coffee Badge provides full access to the exhibit hall, the World Latte Art Championship, the SCA Lecture Series, and public cuppings from April 10 to April 12, 2026.

Pricing Overview (Early Bird ends March 1):

Badge Category (3-Day) Early Bird Price Regular Price (After March 1)
SCA Paid Members $299 $340
Non-Members $360 $399

Single-day badges are also available for Friday, Saturday, or Sunday to accommodate those with tighter schedules.

Expert-Led Workshops and Hands-On Learning

The event features an intensive series of SCA workshops, ranging from 2.5 to 3.5 hours. These sessions offer practical, hands-on solutions to industry challenges, covering everything from flavour development to business management. Early bird rates for workshops start at $250 (with additional discounts for members), and seats are expected to fill quickly due to high demand for specialised training.

Digital-Only Registration and Logistics

The organisers have noted that World of Coffee is a non-cash event, requiring all badge purchases to be made online via credit or debit card. For international visitors, visa invitation letters can be generated during the registration process. Additionally, Maritz has been appointed as the official housing provider, offering curated accommodation options near the venue to ensure a seamless experience for all attendees.

Russia Updates Instant Coffee Standards for the First Time in 32 Years

MOSCOW – QAHWA WORLD

Russia has officially revised its national standard for instant coffee, marking the first update since 1994. According to Readovka, the previous GOST standard, introduced in January 1994, applied only to powdered instant coffee. The newly adopted regulation significantly broadens the classification and aligns it with today’s market realities.

Expanded Product Classification

Under the updated standard, three categories of instant coffee are now formally recognized:

  • Powdered instant coffee

  • Granulated instant coffee

  • Freeze-dried (sublimated) instant coffee

This expansion reflects the technological evolution of the sector and the diversity of products currently available to consumers.

Clearer Quality Parameters

As outlined by Rosstandart, the revised standard introduces specific quality indicators for each type of instant coffee. These include:

  • Appearance of the powder or granules

  • Color of the dry product

  • Aroma

  • Taste of the prepared beverage

The new GOST prohibits the presence of foreign impurities and any off-flavors or odors not characteristic of coffee. Flavorings are permitted; however, manufacturers are required to clearly declare them in the ingredient list.

Stricter Technical Requirements

The updated regulation also establishes precise technical benchmarks:

  • Complete dissolution in hot water (96–98°C) within 30 seconds

  • Dissolution in cold water (18–20°C) within a maximum of three minutes

  • Moisture content not exceeding 6% in the dry product

These measures aim to ensure product consistency, performance, and consumer transparency across all categories.

Market Context: Health and Pricing Pressures

Previous reports have suggested that moderate coffee consumption may be associated with a 10–15% reduction in overall mortality. However, these potential benefits can be offset when sugar or flavored syrups are added in significant amounts.

Meanwhile, the coffee market has faced notable price increases over the past two years, with costs rising more than 2.5 times. The surge is largely attributed to a global shortage of green coffee beans and ongoing supply chain disruptions.

The revision of Russia’s instant coffee standard signals a broader effort to modernize regulatory frameworks and raise quality benchmarks in a market that continues to evolve rapidly.

Russian Coffee and Roasted Coffee Market 2026

MOSCOW – QAHWA WORLD

The Russian coffee market continues to reach record sales levels, driven by strong domestic demand and rising per capita coffee consumption. According to analysis by Roif Expert, the market volume increased by approximately 300 billion rubles in recent periods, marking the highest level recorded since monitoring began.

Analysts note that this growth is supported by increased domestic production of both regular and roasted coffee. Major Russian producers are expanding their production capacities to meet rising consumer demand. At the same time, coffee imports continue to show a stable upward trend, making the Russian market attractive to foreign companies, while exports, despite some international restrictions, have potential for expansion.

Growth in Roasted Coffee Production

The roasted coffee sector has seen a significant increase in production, driven by rising local demand and the need to partially replace imported products. Production is concentrated in key regions, and the market shares of major companies remain relatively stable compared to previous periods.

Roif Expert highlights that the entry of new players intensifies competition, especially for companies with the resources to expand geographically and increase production volumes. Additionally, the market is directly influenced by the overall economic situation, regional factors, and geopolitical conditions, making adaptability crucial for companies to maintain their market share.

Imports and Exports of Roasted Coffee

  • Imports: Determined by domestic demand and price fluctuations between Russian and foreign producers, imports show a steady growth trend.

  • Exports: Primarily directed to international markets, although global restrictions can affect the attractiveness of Russian roasted coffee abroad.

Key Market Trends

According to Roif Expert, the main trends in the Russian coffee market include:

  • Growth in production of both regular and roasted coffee to meet domestic demand.

  • Continued increase in per capita coffee consumption.

  • Steady import growth with potential for expanding exports.

  • Stability in market shares of major producers alongside rising competition from new entrants.

  • Coffee prices are increasing faster than sales volumes.

Market Outlook

Analysts expect the Russian coffee market to continue its growth in the coming years, driven by increasing domestic production and expanding roasted coffee exports. The market remains attractive to investors due to high profitability and growing consumption, particularly in the roasted coffee segment, where competition among major players is strong.

Roif Expert’s analysis confirms that the Russian coffee and roasted coffee market is flexible and capable of adapting to changes in demand and pricing, enhancing its growth potential both domestically and internationally in the medium and long term.

Caffè Nero Acquires Compass Coffee Assets in Bankruptcy Auction

DUBAI – QAHWA WORLD

U.K.-based coffee company Caffè Nero has secured the winning bid to acquire the majority of assets belonging to Washington, D.C.-based Compass Coffee, which filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection last month.

The final bid reached $4.75 million following a competitive, three-day auction involving five prospective buyers. Caffè Nero had initially set the baseline offer at $2.9 million through a “stalking-horse” bid. The transaction remains subject to approval by the bankruptcy court.

Operations to Continue Under Compass Name

For now, the 17 Compass cafés operating across the D.C. area are expected to remain open under their current brand. Whether the Compass name will be retained long term has not yet been determined.

Compass co-founder and CEO Michael Haft stated in an interview with The Washington Post that representatives from Nero will begin meeting with Compass staff as part of the transition process. While Nero has indicated interest in keeping the existing leadership team, formal employment offers have not yet been finalised.

A court hearing is scheduled for February 26, the earliest date on which Nero could formally assume control of the company.

Background on Both Companies

Founded in 1997 by Gerry Ford, Caffè Nero has grown into an international brand with more than 1,000 locations across 11 countries. In the United States, however, its presence remains concentrated primarily in the Boston area, with no current locations in Washington, D.C.

Compass Coffee was established in 2014 by former Marine Corps officers Michael Haft and Harrison Suarez. The company expanded rapidly in its early years, focusing heavily on high-traffic downtown locations. It also invested substantially in a large roasting and production facility in Ivy City, aiming to scale its operations.

Financial Struggles and Bankruptcy

Despite its early growth, Compass struggled to achieve sustained profitability. The pandemic forced temporary closures of several downtown cafés and prompted the company to diversify revenue streams, including selling packaged coffee through grocery stores and direct-to-consumer channels, as well as producing hand sanitiser during the height of demand.

In recent years, additional pressures compounded the company’s financial strain. These included rising coffee costs, wage increases, reduced downtown foot traffic, a shrinking federal workforce, legal disputes with landlords and suppliers, and internal conflict between the founders. Suarez departed the company in 2021, and litigation between the co-founders followed.

By early January, Compass filed for Chapter 11 protection.

The $4.75 million sale will not cover all outstanding obligations. Total debts exceed $12 million, with secured creditors expected to recover approximately $2 million. Unsecured creditors remain owed several million dollars, and investors—including the founders—are not expected to recoup their contributions.

Looking Ahead

In a message to employees, Haft expressed optimism about the transition, suggesting that new ownership could provide stability in a market environment that has shifted significantly since 2020. He noted that downtown business patterns and consumer habits have changed, requiring a different operational approach than in the company’s early years.

If approved, the acquisition will mark the end of Compass Coffee’s 12-year period as an independent, founder-led company and signal Caffè Nero’s entry into the Washington, D.C., market.

Ethiopia Elevates Its Coffee Ceremony to the Global Stage

Founder Seada Mustefa Leads UNESCO Recognition Push Through Ethiopian Coffee Culture Day

Addis Ababa – Qahwa World × Buna Kurs – Media

At a moment when global coffee discussions revolve around traceability, sustainability, and value distribution at origin, Ethiopia is redirecting attention toward something more foundational: culture.

At the Adwa Victory Memorial Museum, industry leaders, diplomats, cultural institutions, exporters, and development stakeholders convened for Ethiopian Coffee Culture Day 2026—an initiative led by Warka Coffee to advance UNESCO Intangible Cultural Heritage recognition for the Ethiopian coffee ceremony.

Yet the gathering went beyond heritage recognition. It marked a strategic move to formalize Ethiopia’s ceremonial tradition as both a cultural legacy and an economic instrument.

A Living Cultural System, Not a Symbol

For generations, the Ethiopian coffee ceremony has structured social life across communities—embedding dialogue, patience, hospitality, and shared presence into daily interaction.

At this year’s celebration, more than eleven regional expressions of the ceremony were presented in what organizers described as a “living museum” format. Participants did not merely observe; they engaged. Coffee was roasted, ground, brewed, and served under the guidance of cultural custodians from across Ethiopia’s regions.

The experience was immersive. Coffee was framed not simply as a beverage, but as social architecture—a ritual that organizes community life and reinforces collective identity.

For international observers, the message was clear: Ethiopia is not only the botanical birthplace of Coffea arabica but also the guardian of one of coffee’s most enduring and sophisticated social traditions.

From Ceremony to Strategy

The event drew representatives from government ministries, the Ethiopian Heritage Authority, tourism and trade institutions, women-led enterprises, development organizations, and members of the diplomatic corps.

Panel discussions moved beyond symbolism to policy and positioning, exploring:

  • Coffee as soft power and diplomatic bridge

  • Women as custodians of ceremony and drivers of small-business growth

  • The integration of farmers, exporters, tourism, and technology

  • The role of communal brewing in well-being and social cohesion

The framing was deliberate: Ethiopia’s coffee ceremony is not folklore. It is diplomatic capital, economic leverage, and narrative authority within the global coffee sector.

By pursuing a formal UNESCO pathway, organizers aim to protect the integrity of the ceremony while reinforcing Ethiopia’s leadership role in shaping the global coffee narrative.

Founder-Led Cultural Stewardship

At the center of the initiative is Seada Mustefa, founder and CEO of Warka Coffee, who has positioned Ethiopian Coffee Culture Day as a bridge between heritage preservation and industry advancement.

Her approach reflects an emerging model of origin leadership—one that views geography not merely as a site of production, but as a source of cultural governance and institutional influence.

Under her direction, the event brought together women entrepreneurs, traditional pottery artisans, exporters, and technology stakeholders into a unified ecosystem. A notable feature was the Embassy Coffee Culture Exchange, where diplomatic missions based in Addis Ababa shared their own coffee traditions—reinforcing Ethiopia’s role as both origin and global convener.

The ambition is clear: elevate a domestic ritual into an internationally recognized institutional platform.

Cultural Value in a Commodity Market

The global coffee market continues to wrestle with volatility, sustainability metrics, and uneven value distribution. Ethiopian Coffee Culture Day reframed that conversation.

If the future of coffee depends on strengthening equity at origin, safeguarding cultural systems may be as critical as improving yields or optimizing logistics.

The 2026 edition welcomed thousands of participants across industry, community, and diplomatic sectors. It signaled Ethiopia’s intention to anchor its global coffee identity not only in export volumes but also in ceremony.

In an industry that often reduces origin to tasting notes and lot numbers, Addis Ababa delivered a reminder: coffee’s enduring power lies in relationship.

And in Ethiopia, that relationship still begins with a jebena—shared slowly, in a circle.

U.S. Coffee Prices Hit Record Levels Despite Stable Global Markets

DUBAI – QAHWA WORLD

By any measure, coffee should be getting cheaper.

International green coffee prices have eased in recent months as production rebounds in major origins. Yet in the United States, retail coffee prices continue to climb — reaching levels not seen in decades.

According to data from the U.S. Bureau of Labour Statistics, the average retail price of roasted coffee in the United States hit $9.37 per pound in January, up 33% year over year. That marks the highest level since federal record-keeping began in the 1980s.

At the same time, global benchmark prices for green coffee have fallen to roughly $3.64 per pound, reflecting improved crop expectations and stabilising supply chains.

So why is the world’s largest coffee-consuming economy moving in the opposite direction?

Tariffs and Trade Policy Still Ripple Through the Market

The answer begins with trade policy.

During the previous administration of Donald Trump, tariffs were imposed on key coffee-exporting countries. The United States introduced:

  • A 46% tariff on imports from Vietnam

  • A 10% tariff on imports from Brazil and Colombia

Vietnam, Brazil, and Colombia collectively supply more than 60% of U.S. coffee imports. Any disruption involving these origins has immediate consequences for American roasters.

In July, an additional 40% tariff on Brazilian food and beverage imports was proposed. Although that measure was later reversed, the market had already reacted. Coffee is traded months in advance, and importers typically lock in contracts well before shipments arrive. By the time policies shift, pricing structures are already embedded in the supply chain.

In coffee, timing is everything — and costs move slowly in one direction.

The Lag Between Global Prices and Retail Shelves

Green coffee prices are only one component of what consumers pay. Roasting, freight, warehousing, labor, packaging, and retail margins all compound the final number on a supermarket shelf or café menu.

Even when global commodity prices fall, retailers rarely adjust immediately. Contracts must roll over. Inventories must clear. New pricing agreements must be negotiated.

There is also a behavioural element at play. Coffee remains a daily ritual for millions of Americans. Demand has proven remarkably resilient, even in periods of inflation. When consumers continue buying at higher prices, businesses face little urgency to cut them.

Corporate Performance Signals Strong Demand

Publicly traded coffee giants reflect this resilience.

Shares of Starbucks are up roughly 14% year to date in 2026. Meanwhile, Keurig Dr Pepper has gained about 5% over the same period.

Strong performance suggests that consumers are still spending on coffee, whether in cafés or at home. For investors, it’s a sign of pricing power. For consumers, it means relief may not come quickly.

A Market Split: Global Relief, Domestic Pressure

Globally, supply conditions are improving. Brazil’s production outlook has strengthened, and earlier disruptions in key growing regions have begun to ease. That has kept international prices from climbing further.

But the United States operates within its own pricing ecosystem — shaped by trade policy, distribution costs, and consumer behaviour.

The result is a widening gap between falling global bean prices and rising American retail prices.

Will U.S. Coffee Prices Come Down?

They may — but not immediately.

As older contracts expire and lower global prices filter through the system, wholesale costs could soften. However, whether those savings reach consumers depends on competitive pressure, corporate strategy, and demand trends.

Coffee has evolved far beyond a commodity. It is a cultural staple, a daily necessity, and for many households, a non-negotiable expense.

For now, Americans are paying record prices for their morning cup — even as the rest of the world sees relief.

And until supply contracts reset and market forces realign, that disconnect is likely to persist.

How Ramadan’s Coffee Economy is Reshaping Global Supply Chains

By: Kurniawan Arif Maspul

In the hush that falls just before sunset in Riyadh, Jakarta or Dubai, there is a moment of collective suspension. The air is thick with anticipation. Then the call to prayer unfurls, dates are lifted, water is sipped, and almost instinctively, coffee follows. In that simple act — the pouring of Arabic gahwa or the clink of iced kopi susu — lies an economic story far larger than caffeine.

Ramadan’s night-time coffee economy has become a revealing lens on strategic development, soft power and resilience across the Middle East and Southeast Asia.

Coffee is no minor indulgence in these regions. UNESCO has inscribed Arabic coffee on the List of Intangible Cultural Heritage, describing it as a symbol of generosity and dialogue. That symbolism now intersects with hard numbers. The Middle East coffee-beans market is valued at roughly US$2.2 billion and rising, fuelled by youthful demographics and a booming speciality café culture. In the UAE alone, coffee sales exceed AED 12 billion — about US$3.2 billion — with an extraordinary 93 per cent consumed outside the home. Saudi Arabia pours an estimated 36 million cups a day, sustaining more than 61,000 cafés and a branded coffee-shop sector worth around US$1.38 billion in 2024, up more than 11 per cent in a single year.

Indonesia, meanwhile, stands at the other end of the supply chain and yet increasingly at its centre. The world’s fourth-largest producer and fifth-largest consumer of coffee exported US$1.63 billion worth of beans in 2024 and shipped more than 200,000 tonnes globally in the first half of 2025 alone. Domestic consumption has climbed from 4.45 million to 4.8 million bags in just five years. What was once dismissed locally as an ‘old people’s drink’ has become an emblem of urban modernity. The result is a strategic corridor stretching from the highlands of Sumatra and Sulawesi to the neon-lit cafés of the Gulf.

Ramadan intensifies this corridor. The month reprograms economic time. Daylight commerce slows; nighttime consumption surges. Saudi marketplaces teem until dawn. Cafés extend trading hours to 3 am, hiring additional staff, absorbing higher electricity costs and generating concentrated bursts of revenue. While some studies have noted short-term GDP dips during Ramadan — one estimate put the UAE’s pre-pandemic Ramadan contraction at around US$1.4 billion — Gulf economists argue that such metrics miss the point. The month’s economic pulse shifts rather than disappears. Expenditure moves into food and beverage, into shared experiences, into what urban planners now call the ‘night-time economy’.

For oil-dependent states pursuing diversification under strategies such as Saudi Vision 2030, this nocturnal vitality is not incidental. It is structural. Coffee shops have become micro-engines of non-oil growth, social cohesion and even labour-market flexibility. Extended hours generate VAT receipts and service-sector employment. They also cultivate what might be described as social capital — the intangible glue of trust and belonging that underpins political stability.

In Ramadan, cafés function as modern majlis: spaces where business is discussed, grievances softened, and generational divides bridged over small porcelain cups.

This is not merely sociological poetry. It is geopolitics by other means. Analysts at the USC Centre on Public Diplomacy have described coffeehouses as unconventional yet strategic venues of soft power. Indonesia has embraced this logic overtly, deploying ‘coffee diplomacy’ during state visits and at multilateral forums to showcase regional blends as symbols of cultural diversity. Gulf states, too, leverage coffee ritual as a narrative. A cup of gahwa offered to a visiting dignitary signals continuity between Bedouin hospitality and hyper-modern skylines.

Trade flows reinforce this symbolism. Egypt has emerged among Indonesia’s top coffee destinations. Gulf importers, wary of climate volatility in Brazil and Vietnam, are diversifying towards Southeast Asian suppliers. Dubai’s ports handled around AED 3.5 billion (nearly US$1 billion) in green coffee trade in 2024, consolidating the emirate’s role as a re-export hub. These exchanges deepen South–South ties at a time when the global trading system feels brittle.

Yet the aroma of opportunity is tinged with anxiety. Climate change looms over the bean belt. The World Bank has warned that rising temperatures and erratic rainfall threaten vast swathes of Arabica-growing regions. Around 125 million livelihoods globally depend on coffee. In Indonesia, 98 per cent of farms are smaller than two hectares, acutely vulnerable to shifting weather patterns and pests such as coffee rust. Sustainability is no longer a boutique concern; it is a strategic necessity.

Regulatory currents amplify the pressure. The European Union’s deforestation regulations are reshaping expectations of traceability and environmental compliance. The Global Coffee Platform reports that certified sustainable coffee now accounts for roughly 21 per cent of global exports among participating members, and the share is climbing. Saudi Arabia has launched its own Coffee Sustainability Initiative, embedding traceability and eco-friendly standards into domestic policy. Climate adaptation programmes in Indonesia, including partnerships backed by USAID and private firms, aim to equip smallholders with shade-tree systems, improved irrigation and resilient varieties.

In this context, Ramadan’s coffee economy offers a microcosm of the broader transition. The surge in demand during fasting nights underscores both interdependence and fragility. Supply chains must flex across time zones and hemispheres. Ports, logistics firms and roasters coordinate around lunar calendars as much as market signals. The cup cradled after tarawih prayers is the endpoint of a chain that begins on a hillside vulnerable to climate stress.

There is, in this choreography, a subtle lesson for strategic policy. Economic diversification cannot be abstract. It must be anchored in lived culture. The success of Gulf coffee sectors lies partly in their ability to fuse heritage — UNESCO-listed rituals of hospitality — with hyper-modern retail ecosystems and global sourcing. Indonesia’s ascent reflects a similar fusion: smallholder traditions intersecting with urban start-ups and digital payment platforms.

For middle powers navigating an unsettled century, the lesson extends far beyond any single region. Coffee is no longer a peripheral commodity drifting quietly through global trade statistics. It has become a living artery of influence, binding Latin America to East Asia, Africa to the Gulf, and Europe to Southeast Asia. What looks like a simple supply chain is, in truth, a network of shared vulnerability and shared possibility.

Across continents, coffee sustains the livelihoods of roughly 120 million people. It anchors export revenues in producing nations and fuels vast consumer markets in cities that rarely see a coffee tree. It connects smallholder farmers on two-hectare plots to urban professionals in glass towers. It is traded in billions of dollars, regulated under tightening environmental standards, and scrutinised under new deforestation and traceability regimes. A bean grown in one hemisphere now carries the climate anxieties, labour politics and sustainability expectations of another.

In this sense, coffee has become a quiet instrument of geopolitical relevance. Commodity chains once dismissed as mundane are emerging as platforms of influence. Whoever shapes the standards shapes the market. Whoever finances climate adaptation secures a long-term supply. Whoever tells the story of origin and sustainability builds soft power. Development banks, multinational corporations and regional blocs are no longer bystanders; they are architects of the future of the cup.

There is something deeply human in this. Coffee houses have always been spaces of exchange — of ideas, of grievances, of ambition. Today, that exchange stretches across oceans. Muslim-majority societies share ritual and trade through coffee, but so too do communities divided by language, ideology or geography. From highland farms to cosmopolitan cafés, the chain weaves culture into commerce and development into daily habit.

In a fragmented world tempted by economic nationalism and strategic suspicion, such connective tissue matters profoundly. Climate shocks in one producing country reverberate through prices and politics elsewhere. Regulatory shifts in one bloc reshape farming practices across continents. Stability in rural regions abroad becomes inseparable from consumer confidence at home. Interdependence is no longer theoretical; it is brewed fresh each morning.

The deeper truth is this: power in the twenty-first century will not rest solely on military strength or technological supremacy. It will also rest on stewardship — of supply chains, of standards, of sustainability, of trust. Coffee offers a glimpse of that alternative grammar of power. It demonstrates that resilience can be cultivated, that influence can be infused through partnership rather than pressure.

A single cup, lifted at dawn or shared at dusk, carries more than aroma. It carries the labour of distant hands, the risk of changing climates, the weight of regulation and the promise of cooperation. In that humble ritual lies a quiet proposition for the global order: prosperity, like coffee, is strongest when grown together, traded fairly and shared across borders.

As the final sips are taken before dawn and cities quieten again, the economic ledger of Ramadan will show more than receipts. It will record an annual rehearsal of adaptation: of how societies bend time, commerce and ritual to coexist. In that rehearsal lies a model of strategic resilience. The steam rising from a small cup in the early hours carries with it more than aroma.

It carries the possibility that tradition, when aligned with innovation and sustainability, can anchor a region’s future — and quietly reshape the geopolitics of a global commodity.

 

Italy Coffee Market Outlook 2026–2031

Tradition Anchors Growth as Pods, Specialty and RTD Gain Ground

DUBAI – QAHWA WORLD

Italy’s coffee sector is projected to expand steadily through 2031, supported by strong domestic consumption, product innovation and premiumisation trends, even as competition from alternative beverages intensifies.

According to a recent industry analysis published by Research and Markets, the Italian coffee market is estimated at USD 5.92 billion in 2026, up from USD 5.61 billion in 2025. The market is forecast to reach USD 7.71 billion by 2031, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.44% between 2026 and 2031.

A Market Rooted in Culture

Coffee consumption remains deeply embedded in Italy’s daily life and social fabric. Espresso culture, regional roasting traditions and the central role of cafés continue to sustain stable demand across retail and foodservice channels.

Data from the European Coffee Federation shows European coffee sales rising from EUR 2.45 billion in 2022 to EUR 2.57 billion in 2023, reflecting consistent consumption patterns in mature markets such as Italy. The country continues to shape broader European coffee dynamics through its heritage brands and café culture.

Ground coffee remains the backbone of the market, reflecting traditional brewing habits in both households and professional settings.

Segment Performance: Leaders and Fastest Growers

Ground Coffee: Market Leader

Ground coffee accounted for 34.10% of market share in 2025, maintaining its leadership due to Italy’s strong preference for authentic espresso preparation. Its versatility across brewing methods and wide range of blends and roast profiles reinforce its dominance.

Pods and Capsules: Fastest Growth

Coffee pods and capsules represent the fastest-growing segment, with a projected CAGR of 6.31% through 2031. Growth is driven by convenience, single-serve machine adoption and demand for consistent quality in homes and offices. Innovation in cross-compatible systems and flavor diversification continues to support expansion.

Plain Coffee: Cultural Mainstay

Plain coffee holds a commanding 78.20% market share in 2025, underscoring consumer preference for traditional, unflavored coffee that highlights bean quality and roasting craftsmanship.

Flavored Coffee: Emerging Momentum

Flavored coffee is projected to grow at a 7.02% CAGR through 2031, reflecting changing tastes among younger consumers and urban markets seeking diversified flavor experiences.

Innovation and Premiumisation

Italian consumers remain loyal to tradition but increasingly embrace innovation that blends heritage with modern preferences. Product development is expanding into:

  • Specialty and single-origin offerings

  • Ready-to-drink (RTD) coffee

  • Sustainable and ethically sourced products

  • Smart brewing systems

  • E-commerce and digital sales channels

International brands are also adapting to the Italian market. In February 2023, Starbucks Corporation introduced its Oleato olive oil coffee range in Italy, combining espresso with olive oil in beverages designed to align with local culinary identity while offering a differentiated experience.

Sustainability and ethical sourcing are increasingly important purchase drivers, while climate volatility remains a structural risk factor affecting global green coffee supply.

Competitive Pressures from Alternative Beverages

The broader beverage landscape in Italy is evolving. Functional teas, energy drinks, matcha, kombucha and plant-based beverages are gaining visibility, particularly among younger consumers. Specialty tea shops and bubble tea outlets are expanding in major cities, competing with traditional coffee bars as social spaces.

In response, coffee companies are diversifying portfolios to include tea, functional drinks and wellness-oriented beverages, leveraging established distribution networks and brand recognition.

Corporate Spotlight: Illycaffè Expands U.S. Production

Premium Italian roaster Illycaffè plans to begin production in the United States in 2026 as part of its international growth strategy.

Chief Executive Officer Cristina Scocchia stated that between 15% and 20% of the company’s U.S. sales volume will be produced locally starting early next year. The move aims to improve supply chain flexibility and enhance proximity to consumers.

Illycaffè expects overall turnover to rise approximately 10% year-on-year to around €690 million, with reported growth of 11% in Italy and 19% in the United States at constant exchange rates. However, the company faces continued cost pressure from elevated green coffee prices, which rose significantly in 2025 due to weather-related supply disruptions and global market volatility.

Founded in 1933 in Trieste, Illycaffè operates in more than 140 countries and remains a key player in the premium espresso segment.

Market Structure and Key Players

The Italian coffee market is segmented by:

  • Product Type: Whole bean, ground coffee, instant coffee and others

  • Flavor: Plain and flavored

  • Category: Conventional and specialty

  • Bean Type: Arabica, Robusta and others

  • Distribution Channel: On-trade and off-trade

Major companies operating in the market include:

  • Luigi Lavazza S.p.A.

  • Nestlé S.A.

  • Kimbo S.p.A.

  • Starbucks Corporation

  • Gruppo Illy S.p.A.

  • Tchibo GmbH

  • JDE Peet’s N.V.

  • Segafredo Zanetti S.p.A.

  • Massimo Zanetti Beverage Group

Outlook

Italy’s coffee market remains mature but dynamic. Traditional espresso culture continues to anchor demand, while growth is increasingly concentrated in pods, capsules, specialty formats and ready-to-drink beverages.

As sustainability priorities, technological integration and premium positioning reshape the competitive landscape, Italy is expected to maintain its dual role as both a heritage-driven coffee market and a hub for innovation within Europe’s broader coffee industry.

University of Kentucky Launches Coffee Science and Culture Certificate

DUBAI – QAHWA WORLD

The University of Kentucky is set to introduce its first academic certificate dedicated entirely to coffee, marking a notable step in the growing recognition of coffee as both an agricultural system and a global cultural force.

The new Coffee, Science and Culture Certificate is led by David Gonthier, associate professor in the Department of Entomology at the Martin-Gatton College of Agriculture, Food and Environment. The program is designed for undergraduate students and aims to explore coffee from farm production and global trade to roasting, sensory evaluation and cultural history.

  • From Origin to Academia

Gonthier’s connection to coffee began through family ties in Honduras, one of the world’s leading coffee-producing countries. Time spent with relatives involved in coffee farming provided early insight into the realities of production and the economic pressures facing smallholder growers.

His academic path later focused on coffee systems in southern Mexico, alongside continued involvement in a small coffee operation in Honduras. He also earned certification as a Q Grader, a professional credential that qualifies specialists to assess and score coffee quality through standardized sensory evaluation.

Recognizing that few U.S. universities offer structured coffee education, Gonthier developed a program that integrates agriculture, economics, science and culture into a unified academic framework.

  • A Multidisciplinary Approach to Coffee Education

The Coffee, Science and Culture Certificate provides students with a comprehensive view of the coffee value chain. Coursework addresses:

The history and cultural significance of coffee

Global trade and smallholder production systems

Roasting science and brewing techniques

Sensory analysis and flavor evaluation

Two core undergraduate courses anchor the program:

Not Just Coffee, which examines coffee’s historical roots and cultural impact

Coffee Sensory Science, focused on flavor perception, tasting methodology and quality assessment

  • The UK Coffee Lab: Hands-On Training

Practical learning takes place at the UK Coffee Lab roastery, located at the university’s Horticulture Research Farm (South Farm). There, students observe roasting in action, study coffee varieties and analyze how roast profiles influence aroma, acidity, body and overall cup character.

The lab and curriculum were developed with the support of Briana Bazile, part-time instructor and graduate fellow in the Gonthier Agroecology Lab, and Viktor Halmos, research analyst at Martin-Gatton CAFE and alumnus of the Department of Natural Resources and Environmental Science.

  • Launch Timeline

Pending final approval, undergraduate students are expected to begin enrolling in the Coffee, Science and Culture Certificate in Fall 2026.

For more information about the certificate program or the UK Coffee Lab, inquiries can be directed to David Gonthier at [email protected]
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Exclusive: Tobbi Vu on Launching Dubai’s First Vietnamese Specialty Coffee

DUBAI – ALI ALZAKARY

When Tobbi Vu opened Caphin in JLT, she wasn’t simply launching another café in Dubai’s crowded coffee market. She was bringing a piece of Vietnam with her — its flavors, its rhythm, its street culture, and its way of gathering.

For Tobbi, Vietnamese coffee is not about beige interiors or perfectly styled drinks. “In Vietnam, coffee is a daily thing,” she says. “You sit on the road with friends. It doesn’t need to be so fancy.”

Just one month after opening quietly, without a grand announcement, Caphin is already drawing curious office workers, returning travelers, and coffee lovers eager to try something different. In this conversation, Tobbi shares why she shifted from bean trading to building an experience, the challenges of launching in Dubai’s F&B sector, and why quality — not franchising — is at the heart of her expansion plans.

  • “We didn’t even plan to open a café.”

At first, Tobbi’s plan was straightforward: bring Vietnamese specialty coffee beans to Dubai.

“There were no Vietnamese specialty beans here,” she explains. “In the beginning, we just wanted to bring the beans.”

She considered trading green beans or roasted beans, but something didn’t feel complete.

“How do we get Vietnamese coffee to approach people? How can they understand it?” she says. “That’s why we started making drinks.”

Vietnamese coffee, as she describes it, isn’t another version of an American latte. It’s coffee with condensed milk, coconut, egg — combinations that are everyday in Vietnam but new to many in Dubai.

“It’s basically what we drink in Vietnam,” she says. “We don’t drink American style there.”

Before committing to a permanent location, Tobbi launched a series of pop-ups. The reaction surprised her.

“We opened several pop-ups, and after they ended, people kept asking where we were located,” she recalls. “That’s when we realized we needed a place.”

  • A Café Designed for Connection

Caphin stands apart not only in flavor but also in atmosphere.

“To be fair, here you see a specific aesthetic — clean, beige, white, everything fancy and posh,” Tobbi says. “But in Vietnam, coffee is different. It’s casual. You sit outside, you talk for hours.”

She intentionally created a space that encourages socializing rather than working long hours on laptops.

“We have a small area if you need to work,” she explains. “But it’s not really a laptop-friendly café. You don’t need to work overtime every day. You need a social life. Come here, meet friends, talk.”

For Tobbi, the goal is simple: create a place where people feel relaxed, not rushed.

“It’s not just for photos,” she says. “It’s for you to have your moment.”

  • The Drinks People Keep Coming Back For

Although Caphin has only been open for a month, some drinks are already clear favorites.

“Our best-selling drink is Salted Coffee,” Tobbi shares. “People try it, then tell other people.”

The second best-seller is Sapa Coffee, a dessert-style coffee served in a small cup.

“It’s very small,” she says with a smile. “A lot of people order a second cup immediately. Some ask us to make it bigger, but if we increase the size, maybe they won’t like it anymore.”

Caphin also serves Coconut Coffee and the well-known Vietnamese Egg Coffee.

“A lot of people have heard about egg coffee but never tried it,” she says. “We use pasteurized eggs because of regulations.”

Each drink reflects what she describes as real Vietnamese coffee culture — not adapted trends, but authentic habits.

  • Learning the F&B Industry from Scratch

Opening in Dubai’s food and beverage sector came with unexpected complexity.

“This is the first time we do F&B,” Tobbi admits. “We didn’t know anything. Even how to design the bar or kitchen.”

Regulations, inspections, and adjustments became part of the journey.

“It’s a learning curve,” she says. “There are so many regulations you need to follow and understand.”

Despite the challenges, she views the experience positively — as preparation for future growth.

  • Strength in Concept, Challenge in Awareness

In a competitive market like Dubai, Tobbi sees both strengths and weaknesses clearly.

“Our power is the concept,” she says. “We have something new.”

Many customers who have traveled to Vietnam come looking for the flavors they experienced there. Caphin offers that familiarity — but also surprises, since drinks can vary from region to region.

At the same time, she acknowledges the need for stronger visibility.

“We opened very quietly,” she says. “So now it’s mostly organic. Marketing and awareness — that’s something we need to build.”

  • Expansion — But Not Franchising

When asked what success looks like after the first year, Tobbi answers honestly.

“First, you check the account,” she says. “If the numbers are there, that’s success.”

But growth is also part of the vision. She plans to open more branches — just not through franchising.

“It’s very hard to control quality in a franchise,” she explains. “I go every day to check quality.”

She describes a regular customer who orders the same drink daily and immediately notices if anything changes.

“That’s why consistency is important. Everything needs to be perfect.”

Future locations will still focus on Vietnamese specialty coffee, but each one will have a slightly different concept tailored to its location.

“I don’t want copies,” she says. “Each location should have something unique.”

  • One Month In — and Just Beginning

Caphin has been open for just one month. Mornings bring office workers from nearby buildings in JLT. Evenings bring diners discovering the café after visiting neighboring restaurants.

The journey has been slower and more complex than she first imagined.

“At the beginning, we thought we could open three shops quickly,” she says. “But we didn’t know anything. There are so many things that happen.”

Now, with experience on her side, Tobbi is taking careful steps forward.

At its heart, Caphin is more than a café. It is a cultural statement — one that invites Dubai to slow down, sit together, and experience Vietnamese coffee the way it is meant to be shared.