Tag: Brazil coffee crop

Arabica Coffee Rebounds Amid Tight Spot Market Supplies

Posted on by Qahwa World
Source: Barchart (adapted) |
Author: Qahwa World |
Date: June 5, 2026

Recent trends show that arabica coffee has experienced a rebound in the spot market, drawing attention from both traders and coffee enthusiasts. In this article, we will examine the key developments and analysis surrounding the arabica coffee rebound spot market and what it means for industry stakeholders. If you are following arabica coffee rebound spot market news, understanding arabica coffee rebound spot market conditions is important for those looking to make sense of price fluctuations and opportunities in the industry.

Arabica Coffee Rebounds Amid Tight Spot Market Supplies

Key Highlights:

  • July arabica coffee futures rose 0.34% after hitting a 19-month low.
  • ICE arabica coffee inventories fell to a 3.75-month low on Thursday.
  • A record Brazil 2026/27 crop forecast is weighing on prices.
  • Rabobank raised its global arabica surplus estimate to 9.5 million bags.
  • Vietnam’s coffee exports rose 7.9% in the first five months of 2026.
  • El Niño could delay rains in Brazil and hurt next year’s crop.
  • The ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz disrupts global coffee supplies.

Arabica coffee futures rebounded from a 19-month low today. July arabica rose 0.34%, while July robusta fell 1.34%. The rebound was driven by short covering amid persistent tightness in the spot market. ICE monitored arabica coffee inventories dropped to a 3.75-month low on Thursday.

Therefore, the market remains mixed. Improved global supply expectations have pushed prices lower over the past six weeks. However, near-term supply tightness and geopolitical risks provide support.

Record Brazil Crop Forecast Weighs on Prices

On Wednesday, the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) forecast a record 2026/27 Brazil coffee crop of 71.9 million bags. This represents a 14% increase year on year. In addition, Rabobank raised its 2026/27 global arabica surplus estimate to 9.5 million bags, up from 7.0 million bags previously.

On May 7, the Coffee Trading Academy projected Brazil’s 2026/27 harvest would increase by 12% to 71.4 million bags. On March 19, Marex Group Plc projected a record 75.9 million bags, surpassing Sucafina‘s forecast of 75.4 million bags. StoneX raised its estimate to 75.3 million bags on March 12.

As a result, coffee prices have trended lower over the past six weeks. StoneX projects the 2026 global coffee surplus will expand to 10 million bags, up from 1.8 million bags in 2025. This would be the largest surplus in six years.

Source Brazil 2026/27 Crop Forecast (million bags)
USDA FAS 71.9
Coffee Trading Academy 71.4
Marex Group 75.9
Sucafina 75.4
StoneX 75.3

Strong Vietnam Exports Pressure Robusta; Inventories Fall

On Tuesday, Vietnam’s National Statistics Office reported that the country’s coffee exports from January to May 2026 rose 7.9% year on year to 922,000 metric tons. Moreover, Vietnam’s 2025 coffee exports jumped 17.5% to 1.58 million metric tons. Vietnam’s 2025/26 coffee production is projected to climb 6% to a four-year high of 1.76 million metric tons (29.4 million bags).

In contrast, ICE arabica coffee inventories fell to a 3.75-month low of 426,063 bags on Thursday. Meanwhile, ICE robusta inventories dropped to a two-year low of 3,631 lots on May 15. They are now slightly higher at 3,732 lots.

El Niño and Strait of Hormuz Threaten Supplies

Concerns are growing that an El Niño weather pattern could hurt Brazil’s coffee crop next year. Coffee trader Commercial stated that El Niño may delay rains in Brazil during September and October, when tree flowering normally occurs. This would damage the 2026/27 crop.

The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) estimates an 82% probability that El Niño conditions will emerge between May and July and persist through the end of the year. There is a 67% chance of a “Super El Niño.”

Furthermore, the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz has disrupted global coffee supplies and is bullish for prices. The closure has tightened supplies by increasing shipping rates, insurance, fertilizer, and fuel costs. This raises costs for coffee importers and roasters.

On the bearish side, the International Coffee Organization (ICO) reported on November 7 that global coffee exports for the current marketing year (October to September) fell 0.3% to 138.658 million bags. The USDA FAS bi-annual report on December 18 projected that 2025/26 world coffee production will increase 2.0% to a record 178.848 million bags. Arabica production is expected to fall 4.7% to 95.515 million bags, while robusta production rises 10.9% to 83.333 million bags.

Type 2025/26 Forecast (million bags) Year-over-Year Change
Arabica 95.52 -4.7%
Robusta 83.33 +10.9%
Global Total 178.85 +2.0%

Ending Stocks Continue to Decline

The USDA FAS forecasts that 2025/26 ending stocks will fall 5.4% to 20.148 million bags, down from 21.307 million bags in 2024/25. This decline comes despite higher production expectations. It reflects strong global demand and continued supply chain pressures.

However, prices may face additional pressure if large surplus forecasts materialize, especially with recovering production in Brazil and Vietnam. Investors remain watchful of weather developments in South America and geopolitical tensions in the Arabian Gulf region.

Frequently Asked Questions About Coffee Price Movements

Q: Why did arabica coffee prices rebound despite record Brazil crop forecasts?

A: Due to short covering and tight spot market supplies. ICE monitored inventories fell to a 3.75-month low.

Q: How do Vietnam’s exports affect robusta prices?

A: Rising Vietnamese exports increase global robusta supply, putting downward pressure on prices. July robusta futures fell 1.34% today.

Q: What is the impact of El Niño on coffee prices?

A: El Niño could delay rains in Brazil, harming tree flowering and reducing next year’s crop. This would support higher prices.

Q: How does the Strait of Hormuz closure affect the coffee market?

A: The closure disrupts shipping routes and raises transport, insurance, and fuel costs. This increases costs for importers and roasters.

Q: What is the global coffee surplus forecast for 2026?

A: StoneX expects the surplus to reach 10 million bags, the largest in six years, driven by higher production in Brazil and Vietnam.

The coffee market remains torn between large surplus expectations on one hand and tight spot supplies, weather risks, and geopolitical tensions on the other. Investors continue to monitor exchange inventories and weather developments in Brazil closely.

Prepared and edited by: Qahwa World – Based on a Barchart report by Rich Asplund (adapted).

All rights reserved. Republication with attribution permitted.

Publication date: June 5, 2026

Robusta Coffee Rallies on Vietnam Dry Weather

Posted on by Qahwa World
Author: Qahwa World
Source: Barchart (Rich Asplund)
Date: May 23, 2026

Robusta Coffee Rallies on Vietnam Dry Weather

Executive Summary:

  • July robusta coffee closed up 1.68 percent on Friday, while July arabica fell 0.38 percent.
  • Dry weather in Vietnam’s Central Highlands raised concerns about the robusta crop, with forecasters calling for more rain to aid cherry growth.
  • El Niño weather patterns may delay rains in Brazil during flowering season (September-October), potentially hurting the 2026/27 crop.
  • NOAA estimates an 82 percent chance of El Niño conditions between May and July, with a 67 percent chance of a Super El Niño.
  • ICE robusta inventories recovered to a 6 week high of 3,968 lots on Friday, while arabica inventories fell to a 3 month low.
  • Brazil’s April green coffee exports fell 1.3 percent year on year to 2.76 million bags, supporting prices.
  • The closure of the Strait of Hormuz continues to disrupt global coffee supplies, adding bullish pressure.

Coffee prices settled mixed on Friday, May 22, 2026. July robusta coffee futures closed up 1.68 percent, rising sharply amid dry weather in Vietnam that is raising concerns about the country’s robusta coffee crop. July arabica coffee futures closed down 0.38 percent.

Weather forecaster Vaisala reported that recent showers in Vietnam’s Central Highlands, the country’s main growing region, have been spotty. More rain is needed to aid cherry growth. This supply concern helped drive robusta prices higher.

El Niño Risks and Brazil Crop Outlook

Concerns that an El Niño weather pattern could hurt Brazil’s coffee crop next year are also supporting prices. Coffee trader Commercial said El Niño may delay rains in Brazil during September and October, when tree flowering normally occurs, potentially damaging the 2026/27 coffee crop.

The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) estimates an 82 percent probability that El Niño conditions will emerge between May and July and persist through the end of the year, with a 67 percent chance of a Super El Niño.

Despite these risks, larger Brazilian crop forecasts have weighed on arabica prices. On May 7, the Coffee Trading Academy projected Brazil’s 2026/27 coffee harvest will increase 12 percent year on year to 71.4 million bags. On March 19, Marex Group projected a record Brazilian crop of 75.9 million bags.

On March 12, StoneX raised its estimate to a record 75.3 million bags. StoneX also projected the 2026 global coffee surplus will expand to 10 million bags from 1.8 million bags in 2025, the largest surplus in six years.

Vietnam Exports and Inventory Trends

Soaring coffee exports from Vietnam, the world’s largest robusta producer, are bearish for robusta prices. On May 9, Vietnam’s National Statistics Office reported that Vietnam’s coffee exports in the first four months of 2026 rose 15.8 percent year on year to 810,000 metric tons.

Vietnam’s 2025 coffee exports jumped 17.5 percent to 1.58 million metric tons. Production for the 2025/26 season is projected to climb 6 percent to a four year high of 1.76 million metric tons (29.4 million bags).

ICE coffee inventories have trended lower over the past two months, which is supportive of coffee prices. ICE robusta inventories fell to a two year low of 3,631 lots last Friday but recovered to a six week high of 3,968 lots on Friday. ICE arabica coffee inventories fell to a three month low of 449,567 bags on Friday.

Key Market Data

Indicator Value
July robusta coffee close (May 22) Up 1.68%
July arabica coffee close (May 22) Down 0.38%
Vietnam coffee exports (Jan-Apr 2026) 810,000 MT (+15.8% y/y)
ICE robusta inventories (May 22) 3,968 lots (6 week high)
ICE arabica inventories (May 22) 449,567 bags (3 month low)
Brazil April green coffee exports 2.76 million bags (-1.3% y/y)
El Niño probability (NOAA) 82% between May-July, 67% Super El Niño

Other Market Factors

Smaller exports from Brazil are supportive of coffee prices. Last Tuesday, Cecafe reported that Brazil’s April green coffee exports fell 1.3 percent year on year to 2.76 million bags. The ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz has disrupted global coffee supplies and is bullish for prices. The closure has increased shipping rates, insurance, fertilizer, and fuel costs, raising costs for importers and roasters.

As a bearish factor, the International Coffee Organization reported on November 7 that global coffee exports for the current marketing year (October to September) fell 0.3 percent year on year to 138.658 million bags.

The USDA Foreign Agriculture Service bi-annual report of December 18 projected world coffee production in 2025/26 will increase 2.0 percent year on year to a record 178.848 million bags, with a 4.7 percent decrease in arabica production to 95.515 million bags and a 10.9 percent increase in robusta production to 83.333 million bags.

The USDA forecast Brazil’s 2025/26 coffee production will decline 3.1 percent to 63 million bags and Vietnam’s output will rise 6.2 percent to a four year high of 30.8 million bags. Ending stocks for 2025/26 are projected to fall 5.4 percent to 20.148 million bags.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

1. Why did robusta coffee prices rally on Friday?

Robusta rallied on dry weather concerns in Vietnam’s Central Highlands, where spotty rains raised worries about cherry development.

2. What is the El Niño risk for Brazil coffee?

El Niño may delay rains in Brazil during September and October, the typical flowering period, potentially hurting the 2026/27 coffee crop.

3. How much did Vietnam’s coffee exports increase?

Vietnam’s coffee exports rose 15.8 percent in the first four months of 2026 to 810,000 metric tons.

4. What happened to ICE coffee inventories?

Robusta inventories recovered to a six week high of 3,968 lots, while arabica inventories fell to a three month low of 449,567 bags.

5. How did Brazil’s April coffee exports perform?

Brazil’s April green coffee exports fell 1.3 percent year on year to 2.76 million bags.

6. What is the global coffee production forecast for 2025/26?

The USDA projects record world production of 178.848 million bags, with arabica down 4.7 percent and robusta up 10.9 percent.

Qahwa World – Based on Barchart commodity bulletin by Rich Asplund.
Published: May 23, 2026

Coffee Prices Fall on Improved Brazil Crop Prospects

Posted on by Qahwa World
Author: Qahwa World
Source: Barchart
Date: May 20, 2026
Executive Summary:

  • July arabica coffee closed down 0.68% on Wednesday, while July robusta fell 0.51% to a one month low.
  • Arabica hit a one and a half year low on Tuesday amid an improved global supply outlook.
  • The Coffee Trading Academy projects Brazil’s 2026/27 harvest will increase 12% year on year to 71.4 million bags.
  • Marex Group and StoneX both forecast record Brazilian crops above 75 million bags for 2026/27.
  • StoneX projects the 2026 global coffee surplus will expand to 10 million bags, the largest in six years.
  • Vietnam coffee exports rose 15.8% in the first four months of 2026, reaching 810,000 metric tons.
  • ICE robusta inventories hit a two year low last Friday but recovered slightly on Wednesday.

Coffee prices settled lower on Wednesday, May 20, 2026, with robusta falling to a one month low. Expectations of a larger Brazilian coffee crop continue to weigh on prices. July arabica coffee futures closed down 0.68%, and July ICE robusta coffee closed down 0.51%.

Prices have ratcheted lower over the past month, with arabica falling to a one and a half year near term low on Tuesday amid an improved global supply outlook. On May 7, the Coffee Trading Academy projected Brazil’s 2026/27 coffee harvest would increase 12 percent year on year to 71.4 million bags. On March 19, Marex Group projected a record Brazilian crop of 75.9 million bags, surpassing Sucafina’s forecast of 75.4 million bags. On March 12, StoneX raised its Brazil 2026/27 production estimate to a record 75.3 million bags, up from a November estimate of 70.7 million bags. StoneX also projected the 2026 global coffee surplus would expand to 10 million bags from 1.8 million bags in 2025, the largest surplus in six years.

Vietnam Exports and ICE Inventories

Soaring coffee exports from Vietnam, the world’s largest robusta producer, are bearish for robusta prices. On May 9, Vietnam’s National Statistics Office reported that the country’s coffee exports in the first four months of 2026 rose 15.8 percent year on year to 810,000 metric tons. Vietnam’s 2025 coffee exports jumped 17.5 percent to 1.58 million metric tons. Production for the 2025/26 season is projected to climb 6 percent to a four year high of 1.76 million metric tons, equivalent to 29.4 million bags.

ICE coffee inventories have trended lower over the past two months, which typically supports prices. ICE robusta inventories fell to a two year low of 3,631 lots last Friday, though they recovered to a two and a half week high of 3,845 lots on Wednesday. ICE arabica coffee inventories fell to a two and three quarter month low of 456,462 bags on Wednesday.

Brazil Exports and Supply Disruptions

Smaller exports from Brazil are supportive of coffee prices. Last Tuesday, Cecafe reported that Brazil’s April green coffee exports fell 1.3 percent year on year to 2.76 million bags. The ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz has disrupted global coffee supplies and is bullish for prices. The closure has tightened supplies by increasing shipping rates, insurance, fertilizer and fuel costs, raising costs for importers and roasters.

As a bearish factor, the International Coffee Organization reported on November 7 that global coffee exports for the current marketing year (October to September) fell 0.3 percent year on year to 138.658 million bags.

USDA Production Forecasts

Indicator 2025/26 Forecast
World coffee production 178.848 million bags (+2.0% y/y record)
Arabica production 95.515 million bags (-4.7% y/y)
Robusta production 83.333 million bags (+10.9% y/y)
Brazil production 63 million bags (-3.1% y/y)
Vietnam production 30.8 million bags (+6.2% y/y, 4 year high)
Ending stocks 20.148 million bags (-5.4% y/y)

The USDA’s Foreign Agriculture Service bi-annual report of December 18 projected that world coffee production in 2025/26 would increase 2.0 percent year on year to a record 178.848 million bags. Within that total, arabica production is expected to decrease 4.7 percent to 95.515 million bags, while robusta production is forecast to rise 10.9 percent to 83.333 million bags. The USDA also forecast Brazil’s 2025/26 coffee production would decline 3.1 percent to 63 million bags, while Vietnam’s output would rise 6.2 percent to a four year high of 30.8 million bags. Ending stocks for 2025/26 are projected to fall 5.4 percent to 20.148 million bags from 21.307 million bags in 2024/25.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

1. Why are coffee prices falling?

Coffee prices are under pressure mainly due to expectations of a larger Brazilian coffee crop for 2026/27 and surging exports from Vietnam, pointing to a global surplus.

2. How low did arabica coffee prices go?

July arabica coffee futures fell to a one and a half year low on May 19, 2026, closing down 0.68% on May 20.

3. What is the projected Brazilian coffee crop for 2026/27?

The Coffee Trading Academy projects 71.4 million bags, while Marex Group and StoneX project record crops above 75 million bags.

4. How much did Vietnam’s coffee exports increase?

Vietnam’s coffee exports rose 15.8 percent in the first four months of 2026 compared to the same period last year, reaching 810,000 metric tons.

5. What is the expected global coffee surplus for 2026?

StoneX projects the 2026 global coffee surplus will expand to 10 million bags, the largest surplus in six years.

6. How does the Strait of Hormuz closure affect coffee prices?

The closure disrupts global coffee supplies by increasing shipping rates, insurance, and fuel costs, which is a bullish factor supporting prices.

Qahwa World – Based on Barchart commodity bulletin.
Published: May 20, 2026

Coffee Prices Decline as Expectations of Ample Brazilian Crop Weigh on Market

Posted on by Qahwa World
Author: Qahwa World
Source: Barchart (Rich Asplund)
Date: May 18, 2026 Coffee prices decline ample supplies is the main story as the market experiences significant changes.
Executive Summary:

  • July arabica coffee fell to a 1.5 year low on Monday, closing down 1.01 percent. July robusta posted a 4 week low, closing down 1.75 percent.
  • The Coffee Trading Academy projects Brazil’s 2026/27 harvest will increase 12 percent year on year to 71.4 million bags.
  • Marex Group and StoneX both forecast record Brazilian crops exceeding 75 million bags for 2026/27.
  • StoneX projects the 2026 global coffee surplus will expand to 10 million bags, the largest in six years.
  • Vietnam coffee exports rose 15.8 percent in the first four months of 2026 compared to the same period last year.
  • ICE robusta inventories fell to a two year low last Friday, while arabica inventories dropped to a 2.75 month low.
  • The closure of the Strait of Hormuz continues to disrupt global coffee supplies, supporting prices.

Coffee prices extended their sharp losses from last Friday on May 18, 2026. July arabica coffee futures closed down 1.01 percent, reaching a one and a half year low. July robusta coffee fell 1.75 percent, hitting a four week low. The declines were driven largely by expectations of a larger Brazilian coffee crop and surging exports from Vietnam.

Market analysts are forecasting a record harvest in Brazil for the 2026/27 season. On May 7, the Coffee Trading Academy projected Brazil’s crop would increase 12 percent year on year to 71.4 million bags. Earlier forecasts from Marex Group and StoneX were even higher. Marex projected a record 75.9 million bags, while StoneX raised its estimate to 75.3 million bags. StoneX also predicted that the global coffee surplus would expand from 1.8 million bags in 2025 to 10 million bags in 2026, the largest surplus in six years.

Vietnam, the world’s largest robusta producer, is also adding to supply pressure. According to Vietnam’s National Statistics Office, coffee exports in the first four months of 2026 rose 15.8 percent year on year to 810,000 metric tons. For the full year 2025, Vietnam’s coffee exports jumped 17.5 percent to 1.58 million metric tons. Production for the 2025/26 season is projected to climb 6 percent to a four year high of 1.76 million metric tons, equivalent to 29.4 million bags.

Inventories and Supply Disruptions

ICE coffee inventories have trended lower over the past two months, which typically supports prices. ICE robusta inventories fell to a two year low of 3,631 lots last Friday. ICE arabica coffee inventories dropped to a 2.75 month low of 462,777 bags on Monday. Despite these declines, the broader supply outlook remains bearish.

Meanwhile, smaller exports from Brazil are providing some support. On May 12, Cecafe reported that Brazil’s April green coffee exports fell 1.3 percent year on year to 2.76 million bags. Additionally, the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz has disrupted global coffee supplies. The closure has increased shipping rates, insurance costs, fertilizer and fuel prices, raising costs for coffee importers and roasters. This factor remains bullish for prices.

Key Market Data

Indicator Value
July arabica coffee close (May 18) Down 1.01% to 1.5 year low
July robusta coffee close (May 18) Down 1.75% to 4 week low
Brazil 2026/27 crop forecast (Coffee Trading Academy) 71.4 million bags (+12% y/y)
Brazil 2026/27 crop forecast (Marex Group) 75.9 million bags (record)
Brazil 2026/27 crop forecast (StoneX) 75.3 million bags (record)
Projected 2026 global coffee surplus 10 million bags (largest in 6 years)
Vietnam coffee exports (Jan-Apr 2026) 810,000 MT (+15.8% y/y)
ICE robusta inventories (May 15) 3,631 lots (2 year low)
ICE arabica inventories (May 18) 462,777 bags (2.75 month low)

Global Export and Production Outlook

On November 7, the International Coffee Organization reported that global coffee exports for the current marketing year (October to September) fell 0.3 percent year on year to 138.658 million bags. This decline is a bearish factor for prices.

The USDA Foreign Agriculture Service released a bi-annual report on December 18 projecting that world coffee production in 2025/26 would increase 2.0 percent year on year to a record 178.848 million bags. Within that total, arabica production is expected to decrease 4.7 percent to 95.515 million bags, while robusta production is forecast to rise 10.9 percent to 83.333 million bags. The USDA also forecast that Brazil’s 2025/26 coffee production would decline 3.1 percent to 63 million bags, while Vietnam’s output would rise 6.2 percent to a four year high of 30.8 million bags. Ending stocks for 2025/26 are projected to fall 5.4 percent to 20.148 million bags from 21.307 million bags in 2024/25.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

1. Why are coffee prices falling?

Coffee prices are under pressure mainly due to expectations of a larger Brazilian coffee crop for 2026/27 and surging exports from Vietnam, which point to a global surplus.

2. How low did arabica coffee prices go?

July arabica coffee futures fell to a one and a half year low on May 18, 2026, closing down 1.01 percent.

3. What is the projected Brazilian coffee crop for 2026/27?

Forecasts vary, but the Coffee Trading Academy projects 71.4 million bags, while Marex Group and StoneX project record crops above 75 million bags.

4. How much did Vietnam’s coffee exports increase?

Vietnam’s coffee exports rose 15.8 percent in the first four months of 2026 compared to the same period last year, reaching 810,000 metric tons.

5. What is the expected global coffee surplus for 2026?

StoneX projects the 2026 global coffee surplus will expand to 10 million bags, the largest surplus in six years.

6. How does the Strait of Hormuz closure affect coffee prices?

The closure disrupts global coffee supplies by increasing shipping rates, insurance, and fuel costs, which is a bullish factor supporting prices.

Qahwa World – Based on market reports from Barchart by Rich Asplund.
Published: May 18, 2026

Arabica Drops, Robusta Rises Amid Global Coffee Supply

Posted on by Qahwa World

Dubai – Qahwa World

Global coffee prices showed mixed trends this week. Arabica coffee declined to a one-and-a-half-week low, while Robusta coffee gained support from tight supply conditions.

The main pressure on Arabica prices comes from forecasts of a record Brazil coffee crop, the world’s largest coffee producer. Several international agencies raised estimates for the 2026/27 season to around 75 million bags, a strong year-on-year increase boosting the global supply outlook.

Despite climatic challenges, such as below-average rainfall in key regions like Minas Gerais, Brazilian production continues to rise.

The strength of the Brazilian real limited Arabica losses by reaching a three-week high against the U.S. dollar, reducing exporters’ incentives to sell.

Meanwhile, Robusta coffee prices were supported by falling ICE-certified inventories to a 3.5-month low, reflecting tight supply amid strong demand, especially for instant coffee production.

Global logistics disruptions, including the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, increased shipping, insurance, and fuel costs, affecting importers and roasters worldwide.

Market pressures persist due to rising Arabica inventories and declining Brazilian green coffee exports, reflecting fluctuations in the global coffee market.

Globally, coffee production is expected to reach record levels in 2026/27, driven mainly by Robusta growth. Vietnam, the largest Robusta producer, continues to expand exports and output, adding downward pressure on prices.

Overall, the global coffee market reflects a delicate balance between abundant Arabica supplies and relatively tight Robusta stocks, along with climate effects, currency fluctuations, and logistical challenges, keeping prices volatile in the near term.