Tag: Brazil Coffee

Weather Extremes Drive Coffee Prices to New Highs

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Coffee prices strengthened midweek as extreme weather patterns across major growing regions continued to fuel fears of reduced global supply. Arabica futures for December delivery climbed more than 2%, reaching their highest level in a week and a half, while January Robusta futures also recorded modest gains.

In Brazil — the world’s leading Arabica producer — unusually dry conditions have persisted in Minas Gerais, where rainfall reached only three-quarters of the seasonal average by the end of October. The prolonged dryness follows an even drier previous week and has raised concerns over the next crop’s development. Meanwhile, in Southeast Asia, Typhoon Kalmaegi is expected to make landfall in southern Vietnam, threatening coffee plantations in key Robusta-growing provinces.

Inventories monitored by the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) continued to shrink, adding upward pressure on prices. Arabica reserves dropped to their lowest point in over a year and a half, while Robusta stocks also declined. The drawdown follows reduced U.S. imports from Brazil, where a 50% tariff has sharply slowed trade. Since Brazil supplies nearly one-third of the unroasted coffee used in the U.S., buyers are now facing tighter availability. However, recent remarks by Presidents Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Donald Trump hint at possible progress toward resolving trade tensions, which could influence upcoming market movements.

The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) recently increased the probability of a La Niña event to 71% for the final quarter of 2025. Such conditions often bring hotter and drier weather to Brazil, potentially impacting the 2026/27 harvest if the pattern strengthens.

At the same time, Vietnam — the world’s largest Robusta exporter — continues to expand its output. Official data shows exports rising by more than 10% year-on-year in the first nine months of 2025. The Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association expects production for 2025/26 to reach a four-year high if favorable weather persists.

Global trade figures also suggest sufficient overall supply. The International Coffee Organization (ICO) recently reported a slight annual increase in coffee exports, while Brazil’s crop agency, Conab, revised its 2025 Arabica estimate downward due to dry weather.

According to projections from the U.S. Department of Agriculture, world coffee production for 2025/26 could hit a record level of nearly 179 million bags, driven mainly by higher Robusta yields. Arabica output, however, is expected to dip slightly. Ending stocks are projected to rise by almost 5%, suggesting that despite short-term volatility, the market remains well supplied — though increasingly sensitive to shifting weather patterns.

Falling Inventories and Trade Tensions Revive Momentum in Coffee Prices

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Coffee prices rose on Wednesday as shrinking ICE inventories and ongoing trade tensions between the United States and Brazil brought renewed momentum to the global coffee market.

December Arabica coffee (KCZ25) closed up +2.80 (+0.72%), while January Robusta coffee (RMF26) finished +145 (+3.25%) higher.

ICE-monitored Arabica inventories fell to a 1.5-year low of 446,475 bags, while Robusta stocks dropped to a 3.25-month low of 6,111 lots. This sharp decline follows the 50% tariffs imposed by the United States on imports of Brazilian coffee, prompting many American buyers to cancel new contracts. Brazil typically supplies about one-third of the U.S. unroasted coffee, tightening domestic supply.

Earlier this week, forecasts of rain in Brazil temporarily pressured prices. Meteorological agency Somar Meteorologia reported that Minas Gerais—the country’s largest Arabica-producing state—received only 0.3 mm of rainfall in the week ending October 24, or just 1% of the historical average. While upcoming rainfall could ease dry conditions, concerns remain about the impact on the critical flowering period for the 2026/27 crop.

Speculation is also mounting that the United States may lift tariffs on Brazilian coffee. Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva said he had a “surprisingly good” meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump on the sidelines of the ASEAN Summit in Malaysia, adding that a “definitive solution” on trade could be reached within days.

Last week, Arabica coffee prices hit an 8.5-month high amid fears that prolonged drought in Brazil’s growing regions could threaten the 2026/27 harvest. According to Bloomberg’s Brazil Weather Analysis, Minas Gerais has received only 70% of its average monthly rainfall over the past month.

Prices also gained support after the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) raised the probability of a La Niña weather pattern to 71% between October and December, a development that could intensify dry conditions across Brazil and further impact production.

Meanwhile, Robusta coffee faced pressure from an increase in Vietnamese supply. Vietnam’s National Statistics Office reported that coffee exports rose 10.9% year-on-year between January and September 2025 to 1.23 million metric tons. The Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association (Vicofa) forecasts that 2025/26 coffee production could rise 10% if weather conditions remain favorable, reaching 1.76 MMT (29.4 million bags) — a four-year high.

At the global level, the International Coffee Organization (ICO) reported that world coffee exports for the current marketing year (October–August) increased 0.2% year-on-year to 127.92 million bags, indicating adequate global supply.

In Brazil, crop forecasting agency Conab revised its 2025 Arabica coffee crop estimate down by 4.9% to 35.2 million bags, while lowering its total coffee production estimate by 0.9% to 55.2 million bags.

According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agriculture Service (FAS), global coffee production for 2025/26 is projected to increase 2.5% year-on-year to a record 178.68 million bags, with Arabica output expected to decline 1.7% to 97.02 million bags and Robusta production to rise 7.9% to 81.66 million bags. Brazil’s output is projected to increase 0.5% to 65 million bags, while Vietnam’s could grow 6.9% to 31 million bags.

Global ending stocks are forecast to rise 4.9% to 22.82 million bags, compared with 21.75 million bags in 2024/25.

Easing Weather Threats in Brazil and Vietnam Weigh on Coffee Prices

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Coffee prices dropped sharply on Thursday after giving up early gains, with December Arabica down 2.54% and November Robusta falling 3.9%.

The decline came as weather conditions improved in two of the world’s largest coffee-producing countries. Forecasts from Brazil’s Climatempo predicted weekend rains across the coffee-growing regions, while Vietnam’s weather office reduced the likelihood of heavy rainfall from Tropical Storm Fengshen over the Central Highlands—its main coffee belt—lessening the risk of crop damage.

In Brazil, prices had earlier rallied on concerns over severe drought during the flowering phase of coffee trees, which is critical for the 2026/27 harvest. The state of Minas Gerais, the country’s largest Arabica-producing region, received only about 70% of its average rainfall in the past month.

In contrast, Robusta prices faced downward pressure following data from Vietnam’s National Statistics Office showing that the country’s coffee exports from January to September 2025 rose +10.9% year-on-year to 1.23 MMT. Production for 2025/26 is forecast to rise +6% to 1.76 MMT (approximately 29.4 million bags), the highest level in four years.

Lower inventories on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) provided only partial support. ICE-monitored Arabica stocks fell to a 19-month low of 465,910 bags, while Robusta stocks hit a 3-month low of 6,141 lots.

Optimism surrounding trade talks between the United States and Brazil also weighed on prices. Reports suggest discussions may lead to the removal of the 50% tariffs currently imposed on Brazilian imports, a move that could ease supply constraints in the U.S. market.

Meanwhile, International Coffee Organization (ICO) data showed that global coffee exports for the current 2024/25 season (October–August) rose +0.2% to 127.92 million bags, indicating ample supply.

Brazil’s crop forecasting agency Conab lowered its 2025 harvest estimate to 55.2 million bags (-0.9% from May), reducing Arabica output to 35.2 million bags (-4.9%).

According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), global coffee production in 2025/26 is expected to rise +2.5% to a record 178.68 million bags, driven by a +7.9% increase in Robusta to 81.65 million bags, despite a -1.7% decline in Arabica output.

Trading company Volcafe projects a global Arabica deficit of 8.5 million bags for 2025/26—wider than the 5.5 million-bag shortfall recorded in 2024/25 and marking the fifth consecutive year of supply deficits.

Rains in Brazil and Tariff Hopes Shake Global Coffee Markets

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The global coffee market experienced another week of turbulence as changing weather conditions in Brazil and renewed hopes for a U.S.–Brazil trade deal sent Arabica prices on a volatile ride. December Arabica futures opened the week of October 13 at 373.20 cents per pound, marking the weekly low, climbed to 418.50 cents on Wednesday, and closed Friday at 397.45 cents per pound. The 45.30-cent range reflected a market increasingly driven by both climate and political signals.

The week began with upward momentum, supported by a stronger Brazilian Real and dry weather forecasts across southeastern Brazil. However, optimism faded midweek as rainfall finally reached the coffee-growing regions. Brazil’s Somar Meteorologia reported significant precipitation in Minas Gerais, the country’s largest Arabica-producing state, with further showers expected through the week. The long-awaited rains prompted traders to liquidate long positions, easing the price rally that had dominated previous sessions.

Market sentiment shifted further when U.S. President Donald Trump announced plans to meet Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva to discuss trade cooperation. The news sparked speculation that the two countries might resolve the ongoing tariff dispute affecting coffee exports. Brazilian coffee currently faces a 50% import tariff in the U.S., and even the prospect of relief was enough to trigger additional selling pressure. Analysts cautioned that, while both governments have expressed willingness to negotiate, no official policy change has yet been confirmed, leaving American buyers facing the same challenges in securing Brazilian coffee.

In Brazil, farmers welcomed the long-awaited rainfall after weeks of drought, though experts noted that one week of showers will not immediately reverse months of stress endured by coffee trees. The timing and consistency of upcoming rainfall will be critical to support flowering and the next harvest cycle. While weather conditions dominated origin discussions, another noteworthy development came from West Africa. Liberia announced plans to introduce Coffee Liberica as its national flagship crop under the FAO’s One Country One Priority Product initiative, expected to launch in December 2025. The program aims to elevate the indigenous Liberica species to global recognition alongside Arabica and Robusta, potentially revitalizing Liberia’s agribusiness sector by creating jobs, attracting investment, and expanding its international presence. Although Liberica remains unfamiliar to many consumers, industry observers believe this move could generate renewed curiosity and demand for the rare variety.

In currency markets, the U.S. Dollar Index traded within a narrow range as traders monitored political developments and awaited signals from the Federal Reserve, which entered its communication blackout period ahead of its next policy meeting. Concerns about a potential government shutdown in the United States persisted but lacked the urgency seen earlier in the month. Both the British Pound and the Euro strengthened modestly against the Dollar as global markets remained steady. By the end of the week, GBP/USD stood at 1.34 and EUR/USD at 1.165, marking a calm close to an otherwise eventful week in the coffee and currency markets.

Tightening ICE Stocks Push Coffee Futures Higher

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Global coffee futures climbed as stocks registered on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) continued to shrink, tightening availability and pushing traders to reprice risk. December Arabica (KCZ25) rose about 1.78%, while November Robusta (RMX25) gained roughly 1.9%, reflecting increased buying interest across both contracts.

The market has been reacting to a notable decline in ICE-tracked inventories: Arabica holdings dropped to roughly 534,665 bags, a low not seen in about 18 months, and Robusta balances fell to near 6,237 lots, the lowest in a few months. A major contributor to tighter U.S. supplies has been new trade barriers: a 50% tariff on Brazilian coffee imports has prompted some American buyers to cancel or delay contracts, and because Brazil supplies about one-third of U.S. unroasted coffee, the effect has been pronounced.

Weather worries have compounded supply concerns. Key Arabica zones in Brazil — notably Minas Gerais — received barely measurable rainfall in early October, raising alarms about the crop’s flowering stage for 2026/27. Forecasters have also increased the odds of a La Niña episode through the October–December window, a pattern that can bring drier conditions to Brazil and add further downside pressure to yields.

Still, the global picture contains mixed signals. The International Coffee Organization reported a small year-on-year rise in exports for the current marketing window, pointing to continuing flows of coffee around the world. At the same time, Vietnam’s strong Robusta shipments — up double digits year-to-date — are helping keep robusta markets supplied.

Brazilian crop agencies and exporters have trimmed recent estimates or recorded export slowdowns: domestic forecasts for Arabica output have been revised lower and export volumes in some months have fallen sharply from year-earlier levels. Conversely, U.S. Department of Agriculture outlooks point to a modest increase in total world production for 2025/26, driven largely by a stronger Robusta harvest, while some trade houses continue to flag an Arabica shortfall.

The interplay of shrinking registered stocks, tariff-driven trade shifts and weather risks leaves prices vulnerable to swings — and keeps market attention trained on inventories, crop forecasts and buyer behavior in the coming weeks.

Coffee Prices Retreat on Rain Forecasts for Brazil

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Coffee prices fell for the second consecutive day on Tuesday as forecasts pointed to rain across key coffee-growing regions in Brazil, easing previous concerns over dry conditions.

December arabica coffee (KCZ25) closed down 1.56% at –5.95, while November ICE robusta (RMX25) slipped 1.27% to –57. According to Climatempo, rainfall is expected to spread from São Paulo to Minas Gerais this week, with some regions receiving over 30 mm of precipitation — a welcome relief for farmers during the critical flowering stage of the 2026/27 crop.

The decline follows Monday’s report from the International Coffee Organization (ICO) showing that global coffee exports between October 2024 and August 2025 rose 0.2% year-on-year to 127.92 million bags, signaling abundant global supply.

Robusta prices also faced pressure from Vietnam, where the National Statistics Office reported that coffee exports from January to September 2025 surged 10.9% to 1.23 million metric tons (MMT), reinforcing supply-driven headwinds.

Just days earlier, coffee prices had hit two-week highs on worries about dry weather in Brazil. Somar Meteorologia reported that Minas Gerais — the nation’s largest arabica region — received only 0.9 mm of rain in the week ending October 4, representing just 3% of the historical average.

Adding to the market’s complexity, U.S. tariffs on Brazilian imports have tightened supply in the American market. The 50% tariff, imposed earlier this year, has led to a sharp drawdown in ICE-monitored inventories, with arabica stocks dropping to a 1.5-year low of 534,665 bags, and robusta stocks to a 2.5-month low of 6,293 lots. Roughly one-third of unroasted coffee consumed in the U.S. originates from Brazil, intensifying the domestic supply strain.

Meanwhile, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) raised the likelihood of a La Niña event in the southern hemisphere to 71% for October–December 2025, potentially signaling drier conditions in Brazil later this year.

Brazil’s national crop forecasting agency Conab recently trimmed its 2025 arabica estimate by 4.9%, down to 35.2 million bags, and revised its total coffee production forecast to 55.2 million bags — a modest decrease from 55.7 million in May.

Earlier, Cecafé, Brazil’s coffee exporters’ council, reported that the country’s July exports fell 28% to 2.7 million bags, bringing total shipments for January–July 2025 down 21% year-on-year to 22.2 million bags.

On the other hand, Vietnam — the world’s largest producer of robusta — is expected to harvest a 4-year-high crop of 1.76 MMT (29.4 million bags) in the 2025/26 season, up 6% year-on-year.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) projects global coffee production for 2025/26 to grow 2.5% year-on-year to a record 178.68 million bags, driven by a 7.9% increase in robusta output to 81.66 million bags, while arabica output is forecast to decline 1.7% to 97.02 million bags. FAS expects ending stocks to climb 4.9% to 22.82 million bags.

Despite these figures, Volcafe foresees a global arabica deficit of 8.5 million bags for 2025/26 — the fifth consecutive year of shortage — widening from 5.5 million bags last season.

Coffee Prices Mixed as Robusta Surges and Arabica Faces U.S. Tariff Pressure

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Coffee futures ended Monday in mixed territory as robusta prices climbed on concerns over heavy rains in Vietnam, while arabica remained under pressure from uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariff policy and ongoing harvest progress in Brazil. December arabica (KCZ25) fluctuated during the session and ultimately closed down -1.50 (-0.41%), while November robusta (RMX25) gained +121 (+2.93%).

The sharp rise in robusta was fueled by forecasts of heavy rainfall across Vietnam’s Central Highlands, the country’s key growing area, which could damage cherries entering their final stage of development before harvest. Vietnam, the world’s largest producer of robusta, continues to play a decisive role in global market movements. Despite the short-term weather risks, the country is still expected to deliver a bumper crop, with 2025/26 production projected to climb 6% year-on-year to 1.76 million metric tons, or 29.4 million bags, the highest level in four years. Export momentum remains strong as well, with shipments from January to August up 7.8% compared with the previous year, reaching 1.141 million metric tons.

Arabica, meanwhile, faced renewed selling pressure linked to the policy debate in Washington, where lawmakers are considering a bill that would exempt coffee imports from tariffs. The United States currently maintains a 50% tariff on Brazilian imports, a measure that has disrupted traditional trade flows and forced buyers to cancel contracts. This has tightened U.S. supplies significantly, with ICE-monitored arabica inventories falling to a 17-month low of 643,341 bags. Robusta inventories also dropped to a 1.75-month low of 6,464 lots. The trade impact is considerable, since Brazil accounts for roughly one-third of America’s unroasted coffee imports.

While tariffs weigh on demand for arabica, supply-side pressures in Brazil are offering a degree of support. Somar Meteorologia reported that Minas Gerais, Brazil’s largest arabica-producing state, received only 10.5 millimeters of rain during the week ending September 20, representing just 73% of the historical average. September is a critical flowering month for coffee trees, and any shortage of rain could compromise the next crop cycle. Earlier this month, Brazil’s crop agency Conab cut its forecast for the 2025 arabica harvest by 4.9% to 35.2 million bags and lowered total coffee production to 55.2 million bags, reinforcing concerns about supply.

Globally, the balance remains tight despite expectations of record output. The USDA’s Foreign Agriculture Service projects that world coffee production will increase by 2.5% in 2025/26 to reach 178.68 million bags. Arabica output, however, is forecast to decline 1.7% to 97 million bags, while robusta is expected to rise by nearly 8% to 81.6 million bags. This uneven growth underlines the structural imbalance in the market. Commodity trader Volcafe has warned that the arabica deficit will widen to 8.5 million bags in 2025/26, compared with 5.5 million bags in the previous cycle, marking the fifth consecutive year of shortfalls.

Export figures add further weight to bullish sentiment. The International Coffee Organization reported earlier this month that global shipments in July fell 1.6% year-on-year to 11.6 million bags, while cumulative exports for the first ten months of the current season declined 0.3%. Brazil’s shipments saw particularly sharp declines. Data from the Trade Ministry showed that unroasted coffee exports in July plunged 20.4% to 161,000 metric tons, while exporter group Cecafe reported green coffee shipments down 28% to 2.4 million bags. Robusta exports collapsed by nearly half. In total, Brazil’s shipments between January and July dropped 21% to 22.2 million bags.

In the short term, harvest pressure continues to weigh on arabica prices. Brazil’s Cooxupe cooperative, the country’s largest exporter group, reported that its members had completed 98.9% of the harvest by September 12, signaling that near-term supply remains ample. Yet market participants remain cautious about the months ahead, with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecasting a 71% chance of La Niña developing between October and December. Such a weather pattern could intensify drought conditions in Brazil and place the 2026/27 crop at risk.

The global coffee market thus finds itself pulled in opposite directions. On one side, robusta prices are supported by immediate weather risks in Vietnam, while arabica is weighed down by trade policy uncertainty and harvest dynamics in Brazil. On the other, tightening inventories, shrinking exports, and the prospect of continued arabica deficits provide a strong bullish undertone. With weather volatility and geopolitical trade policies both in play, analysts expect price swings to remain a defining feature of the market for months to come.

Coffee Prices Plunge on Rain Forecasts for Brazil

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Dubai, September 18, 2025 – (Qahwa World) – Global coffee markets faced a sharp downturn on Wednesday as prices tumbled amid forecasts of long-awaited rainfall in Brazil, the world’s largest coffee producer. December arabica futures (KCZ25) closed down -33.70 cents, a steep -8.23%, marking a one-week low. November ICE robusta futures (RMX25) also plunged by -331 points, or -6.92%.

The sudden reversal came just a day after arabica reached a contract high and robusta hit a three-week peak, driven by drought conditions. Forecasts now indicate showers in Brazil’s key coffee-growing regions beginning next week, triggering heavy long liquidation in the market.

Brazil’s Cooxupe cooperative, the largest in the country, announced that the harvest among its members was 98.9% complete as of September 12, adding further bearish pressure. The completion of the harvest, coupled with improved weather outlooks, weighed heavily on investor sentiment.

Yet underlying fundamentals remain tense. Earlier this month, Brazil’s crop forecasting agency Conab revised its 2025 arabica production estimate down by -4.9% to 35.2 million bags, while total coffee output was trimmed to 55.2 million bags. Global supply challenges also persist: the International Coffee Organization (ICO) reported that July exports fell -1.6% year-on-year, while cumulative exports from October to July slipped -0.3%.

On the demand side, U.S. buyers continue to face supply strain due to 50% tariffs on Brazilian coffee, effectively tightening the American market, where one-third of unroasted coffee imports come from Brazil. Meanwhile, ICE-monitored inventories continue to dwindle, with arabica stocks dropping to a 16.5-month low of 659,949 bags and robusta inventories falling to a 1.5-month low of 6,551 lots.

Vietnam, the world’s second-largest coffee producer, is also under scrutiny. Severe drought reduced the 2023/24 crop by -20% year-on-year to 1.472 million metric tons, the smallest harvest in four years. Exports in 2024 declined -17.1%, though shipments from January to August 2025 were up +7.8% year-on-year, showing signs of recovery.

Looking ahead, the USDA’s Foreign Agriculture Service projects global coffee production in 2025/26 will reach a record 178.68 million bags, up +2.5% year-on-year, supported by strong robusta output. However, research firm Volcafe warns that arabica will face a deficit of -8.5 million bags in 2025/26, the fifth consecutive year of shortage.

For now, rain forecasts in Brazil have calmed fears of immediate supply disruption, but the broader picture of tightening inventories, tariffs, and shifting climate risks ensures that volatility will remain a defining feature of the global coffee market.

Brazil Dryness Ahead of Flowering Period Boosts Coffee Prices

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Dubai, September 8, 2025 (Qahwa World) – Coffee prices surged today, with December arabica futures rising by +9.65 cents per pound (+2.58%) and November robusta contracts climbing +$119 per ton (+2.76%). The rally comes as severe dryness in Brazil’s coffee-growing regions raises concerns about yields ahead of the critical flowering period. Meteorology agency Somar reported that Minas Gerais, Brazil’s largest arabica-producing state, received no rainfall during the week ending September 6.

Additional support came from Brazil’s crop forecasting agency Conab, which cut its 2025 arabica crop estimate by -4.9% to 35.2 million bags, down from 37 million bags projected in May. Conab also lowered its total coffee production forecast for 2025 by -0.9% to 55.2 million bags.

Meanwhile, the International Coffee Organization (ICO) reported that global coffee exports in July fell -1.6% year-on-year to 11.6 million bags, while cumulative exports for October through July were down -0.3% at 115.6 million bags.

Tighter stocks at the ICE exchange are also supporting prices. ICE-monitored arabica inventories dropped to a 1.25-year low of 686,863 bags last week before slightly rebounding to 692,766 bags. Robusta inventories remain close to a 1.5-month low at 6,552 lots.

U.S. supplies are under additional pressure from trade measures. American buyers have begun canceling contracts for Brazilian beans following the imposition of 50% tariffs on imports, tightening supply as about one-third of U.S. unroasted coffee comes from Brazil.

Harvest progress in Brazil is also influencing prices. Cooxupé, the country’s largest coffee cooperative, reported that its members’ harvest was 94.9% complete by August 29. Separately, Safras & Mercado estimated the national 2025/26 crop at 99% complete by August 20, with robusta fully harvested and arabica 98% complete.

Export data shows a sharp decline. Brazil’s Trade Ministry reported that unroasted coffee exports in July fell -20.4% year-on-year to 161,000 tons. Exporter group Cecafe said green coffee exports were down -28% to 2.4 million bags, with arabica shipments falling -21% and robusta plunging -49%. Total shipments from January through July dropped -21% to 22.2 million bags.

Vietnam, the world’s second-largest coffee producer, also faces challenges. Its 2023/24 crop fell -20% to 1.472 million tons, the smallest in four years, while 2024 exports dropped -17.1% to 1.35 million tons. However, January–August 2025 exports rose +7.8% year-on-year to 1.141 million tons. The Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association reduced its 2024/25 output estimate to 26.5 million bags, down from 28 million bags.

Looking ahead, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) projects global coffee production for 2025/26 to rise +2.5% to a record 178.7 million bags. Arabica output is expected to fall -1.7% to 97 million bags, while robusta production is forecast to grow +7.9% to 81.6 million bags. Ending stocks are projected to climb +4.9% to 22.8 million bags. However, trading group Volcafe warns of an -8.5 million bag global arabica deficit in 2025/26, compared with a -5.5 million bag deficit in 2024/25—marking the fifth consecutive year of shortages.

Brazil Estimates Coffee Export Losses at $196.5 Million

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Cecafé: Brazilian coffee exporters lost nearly $200 million in July 2025

Dubai, September 3, 2025 (Qahwa World) – Brazil, the world’s largest coffee producer and exporter, has faced severe challenges due to disruptions in its port infrastructure. According to the Brazilian Coffee Exporters Council (Cecafé), total exporter losses in July 2025 amounted to $196.5 million.

Cecafé reported that overloaded and strained port facilities caused massive delays and forced changes in shipping routes. As a result, more than 598.7 thousand 60-kg bags of coffee could not be shipped in July. The average value of a bag was $385.4, while the longest idle period reached 35 days. In total, exporters lost the equivalent of 1.1 billion reals ($196.5 million), and shipments to the global market fell by 27%, dropping to 164 thousand tons.

Beyond logistical problems, Brazilian farmers also faced prolonged frosts. Experts warned that these unfavorable weather conditions triggered stress flowering, which could negatively impact not only the 2025 harvest but also next year’s production.

The disruptions in Brazil and Vietnam have already intensified pressure on the global coffee market. In New York, arabica prices rose to a two-month high in July, while in London, on November 27, the January futures price for robusta reached $5,547.5 per ton (+7.55%), setting a record since at least January 2008, according to ICE Futures.

Luza Baiguzina, Associate Professor at IMES, previously warned that difficulties with exports from Brazil and Vietnam could push coffee prices in Russia up by as much as 20% in 2026.

Global Coffee Prices Surge as Brazil Faces Weather Woes and US Tariffs

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São Paulo, August 25, 2025 (Qahwa World) – Coffee markets remain under heavy pressure from climate shocks in Brazil and trade tensions with the United States, pushing prices sharply higher in recent weeks, even as a stronger U.S. dollar triggered modest profit-taking on Monday.

Arabica futures in New York had surged to a 3.5-month high earlier in the day but ended lower, with December contracts closing down 0.15% after investors booked profits. September robusta contracts were idle due to a UK holiday. Analysts said the dollar’s strength spurred liquidation, though underlying supply concerns continue to dominate the market.

In Brazil, retail coffee prices that had fallen an average of 12% earlier in August are now expected to reverse course. According to the Brazilian Coffee Industry Association (ABIC), raw coffee prices rose almost 25% between July and August, reaching 2,191 reais ($395) per 60-kilogram bag. Despite this surge, supermarket prices in August averaged 58.99 reais (around $10) per kilogram, still below May’s peak of 70 reais/kg. ABIC’s executive director, Celirio Inacio, warned that if futures remain elevated, higher shelf prices are “inevitable.”

The main external factor driving the rally remains the 50% tariff imposed by the U.S. government on Brazilian goods, including coffee. Brazil normally supplies about one-third of U.S. unroasted coffee imports, and American buyers have already begun canceling contracts. Marcio Ferreira, president of Brazil’s Coffee Exporters Council (Cecafé), called the tariffs “the main driver” of the sharp price increases in New York.

Weather concerns add another layer of pressure. Somar Meteorologia reported that Minas Gerais, Brazil’s largest arabica-producing state, received no rainfall in the week ending August 23. Frost damage earlier in the month has also raised fears of reduced yields. Despite this, Brazil’s 2025/26 harvest is almost complete: Safras & Mercado estimated 99% of the crop had been gathered by August 20, with robusta fully harvested and arabica at 98%. Cooxupé, the country’s largest cooperative, reported its members’ harvest at 86.1% by mid-August.

Exports are slowing dramatically. Brazil’s July shipments of unroasted coffee dropped 20.4% year-on-year to 161,000 metric tons, while Cecafé data showed green coffee exports fell 28% to 2.4 million bags. Arabica exports fell 21%, robusta plunged 49%, and total shipments from January through July were down 21% from last year at 22.2 million bags. Meanwhile, inventories tracked by ICE remain at multi-year lows: arabica stocks hit a 15-month low of 726,661 bags in mid-August, while robusta fell to its lowest in four weeks.

Global dynamics reflect the same strain. The USDA’s Foreign Agriculture Service (FAS) projects world coffee production in 2025/26 will rise 2.5% year-on-year to a record 178.7 million bags, with robusta up nearly 8% but arabica slightly down. Brazil’s production is forecast to rise only 0.5% to 65 million bags, while Vietnam could rebound 6.9% to 31 million bags, its largest in four years. Yet despite the higher output, trading house Volcafe predicts an arabica deficit of 8.5 million bags for 2025/26 — the fifth consecutive year of shortfalls.

Brazil, as the world’s top coffee producer and exporter and the second-largest consumer after the United States, stands at the center of these global shifts. With tariffs restricting trade, exports slowing, inventories tightening, and weather threats mounting, analysts warn that consumers should brace for rising retail coffee prices both domestically and worldwide — even if day-to-day trading sometimes pulls prices lower.

Coffee Prices Surge on Brazil Weather Concerns and Supply Tightness

Posted on by Qahwa World

Dubai, 23 August, 2025 (Qahwa World) – Coffee futures surged sharply on Friday, reaching multi-month highs as weather concerns in Brazil and tightening global supplies continued to fuel bullish momentum. December arabica coffee (KCZ25) closed up +13.30 cents (+3.64%), marking a 3.5-month high, while September ICE robusta (RMU25) gained +108 points (+2.27%), its strongest level in three months. The rally extended a three-week upward trend, with traders reacting to reports of dry conditions and frost damage in Brazil, the world’s largest coffee producer.

According to Somar Meteorologia, Minas Gerais, Brazil’s leading arabica coffee-growing region, recorded no rainfall during the week ending August 16. This lack of precipitation, coupled with recent frost damage, raised concerns over crop yields and pushed prices higher. Additional upward pressure came from the United States, where coffee supplies are tightening as buyers void new Brazilian contracts in response to a 50% tariff on Brazilian exports. With nearly one-third of U.S. coffee imports traditionally sourced from Brazil, the restrictions have intensified market concerns over availability.

Brazil’s Trade Ministry reported that July unroasted coffee exports fell by 20.4% year-on-year to 161,000 metric tons. Exporter group Cecafe confirmed an even steeper decline in green coffee shipments, which dropped 28% in July to 2.4 million bags. Arabica exports fell 21%, robusta plunged 49%, and overall shipments for the January–July period slipped 21% to 22.2 million bags. Meanwhile, ICE-monitored arabica inventories fell to a 1.25-year low of 726,661 bags before recovering slightly to 729,606 bags on Friday. Robusta inventories also dropped to a four-week low of 6,642 lots, down from a two-year high of 7,029 lots at the end of July.

On the other hand, progress in Brazil’s harvest is adding a bearish element. Safras & Mercado reported that 99% of the 2025/26 crop was harvested as of August 20, with the robusta harvest completed and 98% of arabica finished. Brazil’s largest cooperative, Cooxupé, announced that its members had completed 86.1% of their harvest by August 15.

Global developments continue to influence sentiment. The International Coffee Organization reported that world coffee exports rose 7.3% in June to 11.69 million bags, although cumulative shipments from October through June were slightly lower at 104.14 million bags. In Vietnam, drought reduced 2023/24 production by 20% to 1.472 million metric tons, the smallest crop in four years, while 2024 exports dropped 17.1%. The Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association has since lowered its 2024/25 production forecast to 26.5 million bags. However, government data showed that exports from January to July 2025 rose 6.9% to 1.05 million metric tons.

The USDA’s Foreign Agriculture Service projects that global coffee production in 2025/26 will rise by 2.5% to a record 178.68 million bags, with robusta output increasing by 7.9% to 81.66 million bags and arabica output slipping 1.7% to 97.02 million bags. Ending stocks are forecast to climb 4.9% to 22.82 million bags. Despite these figures, trader Volcafe projects a widening arabica deficit of 8.5 million bags for 2025/26, compared with 5.5 million in 2024/25, marking the fifth consecutive year of shortages.

Coffee markets are now navigating the opposing forces of immediate weather-driven supply risks and harvest progress in Brazil against longer-term forecasts of record global output, leaving traders alert to further volatility in the weeks ahead.