Tag: Arabica

Top Coffee Producers 2026

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As of April 2026, the global coffee market is undergoing a pivotal shift. Data from the International Coffee Organization (ICO) and the USDA show that the 2025/26 coffee year (October 2025–September 2026) has delivered record global supply, easing the extreme price pressures seen in 2024 and early 2025. World production is forecast at 178.8 million 60-kg bags (up 2% or +3.5 million bags year-on-year), while consumption reaches a record 173.9 million bags (+1.3%). Ending stocks remain tight at approximately 20.1 million bags, marking the fifth consecutive decline. Nevertheless, improved supply has caused ICO Composite Indicator Prices to drop sharply in early 2026 (February average: 267.57 US cents/lb, -9.9% month-on-month).

This supply surplus is driven by strong recoveries in Vietnam and Indonesia, record Ethiopian output, and steady performance in Brazil, despite drought impacts on key Arabica regions. National updates, including Brazil’s Conab first survey in February 2026, indicate an even stronger 2026 harvest, which could push global supply higher for 2026/27.

Top 10 Coffee-Producing Countries (2025/26 Forecast)

Data primarily from USDA December 2025 report, cross-verified with national sources and market analyses. Figures are green coffee equivalents. Percentages approximate global share.

Rank Country Production (M bags) % Global Main Variety YoY Change Key Notes
1 Brazil 63.0 ~35% Arabica (60%), Robusta/Conilon (40%) -2.0M (drought offset by Robusta gains) Record Robusta; Arabica hit by weather
2 Vietnam 30.8 ~17% Robusta (~95%) Recovery (+ higher yields) Fertilizer investment boosted output
3 Colombia 13.8 ~8% Arabica (100%, washed) -1.0M (excess rain/rust risk) Disease-resistant varieties helped
4 Indonesia ~12.5 ~7% Robusta (dominant) +1.7M (Robusta) Smallholder-dominated; favorable weather
5 Ethiopia 11.6 ~6.5% Arabica (specialty) Record (+0.5M) New varieties and pruning
6 Uganda ~6.9 ~3.9% Robusta Steady growth African Robusta leader
7 Honduras ~5.5–6.0 ~3% Arabica Part of Central America rebound Strong regional contributor
8 India ~5–6 ~3% Robusta (65%), Arabica (35%) Stable Specialty and organic focus
9 Peru ~4.2–5 ~2.5% Arabica (specialty/organic) Steady Premium export growth
10 Mexico / Guatemala ~3.8 each ~2% each Arabica Modest Central America/Mexico rebound

Total top 5: ~131.7M bags (~74% of world production). Latin America dominates Arabica; Asia leads Robusta.

Country Profiles: Drivers, Challenges, and 2026 Outlook

Brazil – World Leader (~35% of Global Supply)

Brazil remains the top producer. The 2025/26 crop saw Arabica decline to ~38M bags due to drought and high temperatures in Minas Gerais and São Paulo. Robusta surged to a record ~25M bags in Espírito Santo and Bahia thanks to better rainfall. Exports are forecast at ~37M bags.

  • Trends: Biennial cycle plus large-scale production with technology and irrigation. Funcafé funding supports the sector.
  • Challenges: Climate volatility, water stress, and EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) compliance.
  • 2026 Outlook: Conab’s February 2026 survey projects a record 66.2M bags (+17.1% YoY): Arabica +23.3% to 44.1M, Robusta +6.4% to 22.1M. This would surpass the 2020/21 record harvest.

Vietnam – Robusta Powerhouse

Nearly all output is Robusta, used in instant coffee and blends. Production rebounded due to favorable weather and higher input spending. Exports projected at 24.6M bags (+2.3M).

  • Trends: Export-oriented, rapid post-1990s expansion.
  • Challenges: Climate vulnerability in highlands; past dry spells.
  • 2026 Outlook: Continued recovery expected; early 2026 data shows strong export growth.

Colombia – Premium Arabica Specialist

100% washed Arabica. 2025/26 saw a modest decline due to excessive rains and cloud cover affecting flowering and rust risk. Disease-resistant varieties, such as Castillo, mitigated losses. Exports ~11.5M bags.

  • Trends: Focus on quality; yield improvements ongoing.
  • Challenges: Weather cycles, labor costs, altitude sensitivity.
  • 2026 Outlook: Rebound likely under normal conditions; key supplier to specialty markets.

Indonesia – Diverse Robusta and Specialty

Robusta dominates Sumatra and Java; small Arabica areas in the north. Production rose due to favorable weather and labor availability. Smallholder plots average 1 ha. Exports: green coffee +1.7M to 7.8M bags.

  • Trends: Stable land area (~1.2M ha), significant soluble coffee exports.
  • Challenges: Minimal fertilizer use, climate extremes.
  • 2026 Outlook: Stable supply to EU, US, and emerging markets expected.

Ethiopia – Africa’s Specialty Arabica Leader

Record 11.6M bags driven by adoption of higher-yielding varieties and pruning. Exports ~7.8M bags.

  • Trends: Natural and semi-washed processing; heirloom varieties remain globally sought.
  • Challenges: Smallholder fragmentation, highland climate variability, infrastructure limits.
  • 2026 Outlook: Growth likely if variety upgrades continue; specialty segment driver.

Emerging/Other Notable Producers

Uganda, Honduras, India, Peru, Mexico, and Guatemala produce the remaining ~25%. They are critical for Robusta (Uganda) and specialty/organic Arabica (Peru, India, Honduras). Central America/Mexico region rebounded +1.1M bags. India emphasizes premium niches (Monsoon Malabar, organic). All face smallholder and climate challenges but benefit from growing specialty demand.

Broader Trends Shaping 2026 and Beyond

  • Climate Change & Resilience: Droughts and excessive rains highlight vulnerability. By 2050, suitable coffee land may shrink significantly without adaptation.
  • Sustainability & Regulation: EUDR deadlines pressure exporters on traceability. Certifications (Fairtrade, organic, Rainforest Alliance) are growing, especially in Ethiopia, Colombia, and Peru.
  • Market Dynamics: High prices in 2024–25 spurred investment and supply recovery. Robusta exports surged in early 2025/26. Specialty demand remains robust.
  • Economic Impact: Coffee supports ~12.5 million farming households. Brazil and Vietnam dominate exports. Smallholders remain most vulnerable to volatility.
  • 2026/27 Outlook: Early forecasts indicate potential production above 180M bags if Brazil’s record harvest occurs and recoveries hold. Emerging markets will continue driving consumption growth.

Summary

2026 marks a transition from shortage-driven high prices to a more balanced, though still tight-stocks, market. Brazil’s dominance is set to strengthen, while Vietnam, Indonesia, and Ethiopia solidify their positions in Robusta and specialty segments. Long-term success depends on climate adaptation, sustainability, and innovation in varieties and processing. Opportunities abound in premium positioning and supply-chain resilience amid record availability.

This report draws on official forecasts as of early 2026. Data may be refined with subsequent national surveys, including Conab updates. Customized analysis, including by variety, export flows, or price scenarios, can be provided upon request.

 

Coffee Prices Fall as Supply Outlook Improves

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Dubai – Qahwa World

Coffee futures declined sharply on Tuesday, with both arabica and robusta posting significant losses. Arabica reached its lowest level in about three weeks, while robusta dropped to its weakest nearby level in roughly eight months.

The recent downward trend is mainly linked to expectations of a large coffee harvest in Brazil. Updated projections for the 2026 to 2027 season indicate production exceeding 75 million bags, marking a strong increase compared to earlier estimates and last year’s output.

Global supply expectations are also shifting. Forecasts indicate a widening surplus in 2026, with estimates rising sharply from the previous year and pointing to the largest surplus in several years.

Vietnam, the world’s leading robusta producer, is adding further pressure on prices. Export volumes have increased notably, including strong growth in the first quarter of 2026 compared to the same period last year. Annual export data for 2025 also showed solid gains. Production is expected to rise as well, reaching the highest level in about four years.

Shipping disruptions linked to the Strait of Hormuz have created additional challenges for the market. Higher freight costs, insurance expenses, and fuel prices are raising costs for importers and roasters despite the overall improvement in supply expectations.

Weather conditions in Brazil are providing some support to prices. Key growing regions such as Minas Gerais have received less rainfall than usual, which may affect crop development if dry conditions continue.

Inventory data shows mixed signals. Robusta stock levels have declined to multi month lows, suggesting tighter short term availability. In contrast, arabica inventories have increased, adding pressure on prices.

Brazil’s export performance has also shown some weakness. Shipments of green coffee fell significantly in February compared to the previous year, and total exports also recorded a noticeable decline.

Earlier in the year, coffee prices had already come under pressure. Arabica dropped sharply in February, reaching its lowest level in more than a year as expectations for strong production increased. Official forecasts in Brazil indicate higher output for both arabica and robusta.

At the global level, production is expected to reach a record in the 2026 to 2027 season, increasing by several million bags compared to the previous year.

Despite the overall bearish outlook, some tightening factors remain. Global export data shows a slight decline during the current marketing year, while ending stocks are expected to decrease modestly by the end of the 2025 to 2026 season.

The coffee market remains driven by the balance between strong supply expectations and localized constraints, with attention focused on weather conditions, export trends, and inventory levels.

Brazilian Real Boosts Arabica Coffee Prices

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Arabica coffee prices rose on Monday, supported by a stronger Brazilian real, while expectations of a growing global surplus continued to limit gains.

Futures posted modest increases, while robusta trading remained inactive due to a market holiday in the United Kingdom.

The main support came from the Brazilian currency, which climbed to its highest level in several weeks against the US dollar. A stronger real typically reduces export incentives for Brazilian producers, the world’s largest coffee growers, tightening supply in international markets.

However, price gains remained capped by projections pointing to a widening global coffee surplus, expected to reach around 10 million bags in 2026, significantly higher than the previous year and marking the largest surplus in several years.

At the same time, expectations of a strong crop in Brazil continued to weigh on the market, with estimates suggesting production could exceed 75 million bags in the upcoming season, reinforcing global supply.

Despite these pressures, prices found some support from disruptions in global supply chains following the closure of a key maritime route, which led to higher shipping and insurance costs.

Weather conditions in Brazil also contributed to market support, as key arabica-growing regions recorded below-average rainfall, raising concerns about potential impacts on crop development.

Meanwhile, inventory data showed mixed signals, with robusta stocks declining while arabica inventories increased, reflecting an uneven balance in the market.

Brazil’s coffee exports also declined on a yearly basis, providing additional support to prices.

Overall, expectations of rising global production, along with increasing robusta output and higher exports from major producers such as Vietnam, continue to act as key downward pressures on the market in the period ahead.

 

Vietnam Sets the Stage for a Record-Breaking Coffee Export Year

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Dubai – Qahwa World

Vietnam has entered 2026 with remarkable momentum, signaling a potential record year for coffee exports. Early data from Vietnam Customs points to a rapid acceleration in shipments of green coffee, processed products, and various bean varieties, surpassing activity from the same period last year. Export values have also climbed sharply, solidifying coffee as one of Vietnam’s top agricultural earners and highlighting the country’s growing influence in the global coffee market.

The surge is driven not only by higher volumes but also by expanding international demand. Key markets, including Germany, Spain, Italy, Algeria, and Japan, have reported stronger imports in the early weeks of the year. Vietnam’s coffee is increasingly recognized across Europe, North Africa, and Asia as an essential supplier, with both import value and volume showing steady growth.

Within Vietnam’s export portfolio, robusta remains the backbone of the trade, generating substantial earnings. Arabica, though a smaller portion of production, has seen notable gains due to rising global interest in specialty origins and Vietnam’s strategic focus on diversifying its offerings. Meanwhile, processed coffee products are showing strong performance, reflecting a shift toward value-added exports. Industry experts view this as evidence that Vietnam is moving beyond commodity-based trade toward a more vertically integrated model capable of competing in premium markets.

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The strong start to 2026 builds on an already exceptional 2025, when Vietnam achieved its highest-ever coffee export volumes and revenues. The Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association predicts that the current harvest could exceed these records, aided by improved growing conditions, increased investment in farm inputs, and higher market prices—all contributing to stronger yields and production potential.

International observers echo this optimism. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) projects substantial growth in Vietnam’s coffee production, citing farmers’ responsiveness to global price increases and enhanced crop management practices. USDA forecasts also point to rising exports across multiple categories, including roasted and soluble coffee, with Asian markets expected to drive significant demand.

According to the USDA’s December revision, Vietnam’s 2025/26 coffee exports are expected to reach 27.3 million bags GBE, up 8% from the previous year. Early customs data indicate actual shipments of green beans, roasted, and soluble coffee may already be higher, supported by increased sales to international tourists.

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Global trends, however, are shaping a more competitive landscape. Analysts warn that supply may increase across traditional coffee-producing regions, potentially pressuring prices. Vietnam’s efficiency, productivity, and diversified product offerings, along with investments in quality control and traceability, position its coffee sector to navigate these shifts with resilience.

Taken together, the early 2026 developments suggest Vietnam is entering a defining phase in its coffee-export story. Strong demand, recognition in global markets, expansion into processed coffee, and robust domestic and international support all point to a landmark year ahead. If these trends continue, Vietnam is poised to reinforce its position as a global coffee powerhouse while setting new benchmarks for high-volume, value-added exports.

Dollar Strength and Brazil Crop Pressure Coffee Prices

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Coffee prices moved lower as a stronger dollar and expectations of a record Brazilian crop continued to weigh on the market, while a mix of supply, weather, and trade factors shaped overall sentiment.

May arabica coffee fell by 0.95 points, or 0.32%, while May robusta declined by 48 points, or 1.36%, reflecting pressure linked to currency strength and improving supply expectations.

The outlook for Brazil’s next crop remains a central driver. Marex Group projected the country’s 2026 and 2027 coffee production at a record 75.9 million bags, exceeding Sucafina’s estimate of 75.4 million bags, which represents a 15.5% increase year on year. Earlier in the month, StoneX raised its forecast to 75.3 million bags, up from a previous estimate of 70.7 million bags.

Despite this pressure, tight supplies of robusta coffee provided some support. Inventories monitored by the exchange fell to 4,093 lots, the lowest level in three and a half months. In contrast, arabica inventories rose to 585,621 bags, marking a six and a quarter month high and adding further downward pressure on prices.

Global logistics disruptions added complexity to the market. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has affected shipping flows, increasing freight rates, insurance costs, and fuel expenses, raising costs for importers and roasters while tightening supply chains.

Weather conditions in Brazil also played a role. Rainfall in Minas Gerais, the country’s largest arabica-producing region, reached 11.7 millimeters last week, or 47% of the historical average, according to Somar Meteorologia. Below-normal rainfall typically supports prices, though this effect has been offset by broader supply expectations.

Trade data provided mixed signals. Brazil’s green coffee exports in February fell by 27% year on year to 2.3 million bags, according to Cecafe. Meanwhile, the country’s Trade Ministry reported that total coffee exports declined by 17.4% over the same period to 142,000 metric tons, offering some underlying support.

Earlier this year, coffee prices had already faced significant pressure. In February, arabica dropped to a 16.25-month low as expectations of a large Brazilian crop strengthened the global supply outlook. Brazil’s crop agency Conab said production in 2026 is expected to rise by 17.2% year on year to a record 66.2 million bags, including a 23.2% increase in arabica to 44.1 million bags and a 6.3% rise in robusta to 22.1 million bags.

At the global level, Rabobank projected that coffee production will reach a record 180 million bags in the 2026 and 2027 season, up by about 8 million bags from the previous year.

Vietnam, the world’s largest producer of robusta coffee, added to bearish sentiment. The country reported a 14% increase in exports during the first two months of 2026 to 366,000 metric tons. Exports for 2025 rose by 17.5% to 1.58 million metric tons, while production for the 2025 and 2026 season is expected to increase by 6% to a four-year high of 29.4 million bags.

Additional data from the International Coffee Organization showed that global coffee exports for the current marketing year edged down by 0.3% to 138.658 million bags.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agriculture Service projected that global coffee production for the 2025 and 2026 season will increase by 2% to a record 178.848 million bags. The report also indicated a 4.7% decline in arabica production to 95.515 million bags and a 10.9% increase in robusta output to 83.333 million bags.

The agency expects Brazil’s production for the same season to fall by 3.1% to 63 million bags, while Vietnam’s output is forecast to rise by 6.2% to 30.8 million bags. Ending stocks are projected to decline by 5.4% to 20.148 million bags, down from 21.307 million bags in the previous season.

Together, these factors highlight a market caught between rising global supply expectations and ongoing logistical disruptions, weather concerns, and shifting inventory levels, leaving coffee prices under continued pressure.

Brazil Breeds New Coffee to Face Climate Threat

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A recent report published by Reuters highlights growing efforts by Brazilian researchers to safeguard the future of arabica coffee as climate pressures intensify worldwide.

At the Campinas Agronomy Institute in southeastern Brazil, agronomist Oliveiro Guerreiro Filho is working among a diverse collection of coffee plants that differs sharply from the uniform rows seen across most commercial farms. The site brings together a wide range of species, including 15 rare and non-commercial varieties such as racemosa, liberica and stenophylla.

Researchers believe these lesser-known species may hold the genetic traits needed to strengthen arabica, which remains the most widely consumed coffee in the world.

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Scientists warn that arabica is increasingly vulnerable to rising temperatures and shifting weather patterns. Production in key countries, including Brazil, is expected to face mounting pressure in the coming decades.

According to a report by Rabobank, up to 20 percent of current arabica-growing areas could become unsuitable for cultivation by 2050.

In response, researchers are working to introduce genetic material from more resilient species into arabica plants. The goal is to develop new varieties that can better tolerate heat, drought and disease.

Liberica has attracted particular attention due to its ability to withstand hotter and drier conditions. Farmers in Southeast Asia, especially in Indonesia and Malaysia, have already begun testing the species on a small scale.

Jason Liew, founder of a coffee plantation in Malaysia’s Johor state, said liberica performs well in high temperatures and shows strong resistance to disease.

Brazilian researchers are focusing on transferring such traits into arabica, given its dominant position in global markets.

Guerreiro Filho said the institute has spent years working to transfer drought-tolerance genes from racemosa into arabica in an effort to produce more resilient plants.

The process is long and complex. It involves cross-breeding and exposing new hybrids to harsh conditions to identify the strongest varieties. This work can take between 20 and 30 years.

You may like to read: Coffee Pulp in Brazil: When the Coffee Cherry Refuses to Be Waste

Beyond climate resilience, researchers are also testing hybrids for improved resistance to pests and diseases while maintaining quality. Some crosses have shown stronger resistance to coffee rust, while others perform better against leaf miner larvae.

Rodolfo Oliveira of Brazil’s agricultural research agency emphasized that working with alternative coffee species is essential, noting that arabica has a very narrow genetic base, which increases its vulnerability to environmental threats.

As climate challenges continue to grow, efforts like those underway in Campinas may play a critical role in securing the future of coffee production.

Arabica Drops, Robusta Rises Amid Global Coffee Supply

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Global coffee prices showed mixed trends this week. Arabica coffee declined to a one-and-a-half-week low, while Robusta coffee gained support from tight supply conditions.

The main pressure on Arabica prices comes from forecasts of a record Brazil coffee crop, the world’s largest coffee producer. Several international agencies raised estimates for the 2026/27 season to around 75 million bags, a strong year-on-year increase boosting the global supply outlook.

Despite climatic challenges, such as below-average rainfall in key regions like Minas Gerais, Brazilian production continues to rise.

The strength of the Brazilian real limited Arabica losses by reaching a three-week high against the U.S. dollar, reducing exporters’ incentives to sell.

Meanwhile, Robusta coffee prices were supported by falling ICE-certified inventories to a 3.5-month low, reflecting tight supply amid strong demand, especially for instant coffee production.

Global logistics disruptions, including the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, increased shipping, insurance, and fuel costs, affecting importers and roasters worldwide.

Market pressures persist due to rising Arabica inventories and declining Brazilian green coffee exports, reflecting fluctuations in the global coffee market.

Globally, coffee production is expected to reach record levels in 2026/27, driven mainly by Robusta growth. Vietnam, the largest Robusta producer, continues to expand exports and output, adding downward pressure on prices.

Overall, the global coffee market reflects a delicate balance between abundant Arabica supplies and relatively tight Robusta stocks, along with climate effects, currency fluctuations, and logistical challenges, keeping prices volatile in the near term.

Coffee Slides on Supply Surge Signals

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Coffee futures dropped notably, with arabica hitting its lowest level in about a week and robusta sinking to a multi-month low. The decline comes as expectations grow for a significantly larger global supply, led by Brazil.

Forecasts from multiple analysts point to a record-breaking Brazilian harvest in the 2026/27 season, with estimates clustering around the mid-70 million bag range—marking a strong year-over-year increase. This optimistic outlook has weighed heavily on prices in recent sessions.

The downturn intensified as the U.S. dollar strengthened to its highest level in over ten months, adding further pressure to commodity markets, including coffee.

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Despite the broader bearish tone, some factors are offering support—particularly for robusta. Exchange-monitored inventories have tightened recently, signaling short-term supply constraints.

Logistical challenges have also emerged as shipping disruptions in key global routes have pushed up freight, insurance, and fuel costs, indirectly impacting coffee trade flows and pricing dynamics.

Weather conditions in Brazil remain another point of concern. Key growing regions have received less rainfall than usual, which could affect crop development if dryness persists.

On the inventory front, Arabica stocks tracked by exchanges have been rising, contributing to downward pressure on prices.

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Export data adds a mixed picture. Brazil reported a sharp decline in green coffee shipments in February compared to last year, alongside a broader drop in total coffee exports.

Earlier in the year, prices had already come under pressure following projections of a bumper crop in Brazil. Government and private forecasts have consistently pointed to strong production growth, especially in arabica output.

Globally, coffee supply is expected to expand further. Estimates suggest total production could reach new highs in the upcoming season, supported by gains in both Brazil and Vietnam.

Vietnam, the leading robusta producer, continues to boost exports, with shipments rising in the early months of the year. Production is also expected to increase, adding to global availability.

Meanwhile, some international data indicates only a slight dip in global exports so far this season, while overall production forecasts remain strong. However, ending stock levels are expected to tighten modestly, reflecting steady demand.

Coffee rallies hard as supply tightens and money flows back into the market

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You can feel it again—the market is tightening, and coffee is responding exactly the way it tends to when physical supply starts to disappear.

Over the past week, coffee prices pushed sharply higher, and this wasn’t just a technical move. It’s a combination the industry knows well: weaker exports from origin countries and fresh speculative money stepping back in. That mix rarely stays quiet for long.

Arabica for May delivery jumped 8.6% to around $6,828 per tonne, while robusta added another 6%, reaching $6,664. Both markets are moving in sync, which usually tells you this isn’t a localised issue—it’s systemic.

You may like to read: Indonesia’s Top 9 Coffees in 2026

At the same time, the broader commodity space is sending mixed signals. Silver dropped heavily under the weight of high interest rates, while coffee moved the other way. That divergence says a lot about where capital is going: away from passive holdings and into markets where supply risk is real and immediate.

  • And right now, coffee has plenty of that.

The geopolitical backdrop isn’t helping. Tensions in the Middle East have started to interfere with shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, pushing oil prices higher. For coffee producers, that translates directly into higher costs — fuel, fertilisers, transport — everything gets more expensive. Eventually, those costs show up in the price of coffee.

But the bigger story is still supply.

Exports from the major producers are clearly slowing:

Brazil saw green coffee exports drop 27% year-on-year in February
Vietnam was down 20%
Colombia fell even harder, down 32%

Those are not small adjustments — that’s a meaningful contraction across all key origins at the same time.

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What’s more telling is what’s happening on the exchange. ICE stocks — the market’s safety cushion — are still about 30% below last year, sitting just above 552,000 bags. And Brazilian coffee makes up only a tiny share of that, roughly 4%.

That’s important. When Brazil isn’t showing up in exchange stocks, it usually means producers aren’t satisfied with current price levels — or simply don’t feel pressure to sell. Either way, it tightens the market further.

On top of that, funds are coming back in. Managed money increased its net long position in arabica by nearly 30% in just one reporting period. That kind of move doesn’t happen unless confidence — or urgency — is building.

Locally, in Vietnam’s Central Highlands, prices followed the global trend, climbing to around 94,000 dong per kilo. That’s a strong move in a short time, and it reflects how quickly international pressure feeds into domestic markets.

Read also: 43 Years of Data: How Coffee Affects the Brain and Memory

  • Meanwhile, silver drops — and capital rotates

While coffee is climbing, silver is going through the opposite cycle.

Prices fell more than 14% last week, extending a steady run of losses. The main driver here isn’t supply — it’s macroeconomics.

With inflation in the U.S. still stubborn, interest rates remain elevated. That pushes bond yields higher and makes non-yielding assets like silver less attractive. Money simply moves elsewhere.

You can also see it in ETF flows. Holdings dropped by 225 tons in a single week — a clear sign that institutional investors are reducing exposure.

What’s interesting, though, is that the physical market is telling a different story. China imported over 790 tons of silver in the first two months of the year, with February hitting a record. At the same time, exchange inventories in both Shanghai and COMEX are shrinking fast.

So, while paper markets are selling, physical demand hasn’t gone away.

  • The bigger picture

What we’re seeing now is a classic divergence.

Coffee is being driven by real-world constraints — supply, logistics, and producer behavior.
Silver is being driven by financial conditions — rates, yields, and capital flows.

For coffee, the key question isn’t whether prices can move — they already are. The real question is how long supply remains tight and whether producers step in at these levels.

Until that happens, the market stays vulnerable to further upside.

Indonesia’s Top 9 Coffees in 2026

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New ranking highlights leading producers and coffee traditions

Dubai – Qahwa World

A newly updated ranking published on March 18, 2026 by TasteAtlas highlights nine of the most notable coffees and producers across Indonesia, offering a snapshot of one of the world’s most diverse coffee landscapes.

Spanning regions such as Sumatra, Bali, Java, and Sulawesi, the list reflects a wide range of production methods, flavor profiles, and traditions—from high-end civet coffee to everyday robusta staples.

The Top 9 Indonesian Coffees

1. Gayo Kopi – Wild Kopi Luwak (Sumatra)
Topping the list is Gayo Kopi, known for its wild-sourced Kopi Luwak from the highlands of northern Sumatra. The coffee is often associated with a smooth texture and reduced bitterness, with deep, earthy flavor characteristics.

2. Akasa Coffee – Honey Process (Bali)
From the Kintamani region, Akasa Coffee focuses on full control over production. Its honey-processed Arabica is typically described as balanced, with gentle sweetness, floral notes, and a clean finish.

3. Wahana Estate – Sidikalang (North Sumatra)
Situated at elevations between 1,300 and 1,500 meters, Wahana Estate is recognized for its focus on experimentation and variety development, contributing to layered and complex flavor profiles.

4. Seven Bika Coffee – Java Preanger
This brand draws from several Indonesian coffee regions, offering both single-origin Arabica and blends. Its small-batch approach aims to preserve the character of each origin.

5. Toarco Toraja – Sulawesi
Produced in the Toraja Highlands, this coffee is processed using washed methods that highlight clarity and balance, often resulting in a refined and structured cup.

6. Puntang Coffee – Arabica Wine Process (West Java)
Grown on Mount Puntang, these coffees benefit from volcanic soil and high elevations. The use of experimental processing methods contributes to fruit-forward and aromatic profiles.

7. El’s Coffee – Lampung
Based in southern Sumatra, this brand focuses on locally grown beans, including robusta from Lampung, known for its full body and strong flavor.

8. Kopi Luwak Coffee – Central Java
A long-established producer of civet-processed coffee, offering cups commonly associated with smoothness and notes of chocolate and caramel.

9. Mandailing Estate Coffee – Sumatra
Originating from northern Sumatra, this coffee reflects a traditional profile with a full body and flavors often described as dark chocolate, spice, and dried fruit.

Traditional Coffee Styles Still Shape the Culture

Alongside these producers, Indonesia’s coffee culture remains deeply connected to traditional preparation methods.

Kopi luwak continues to attract global attention for its unique processing method. Kopi tubruk remains a daily staple, prepared by mixing ground coffee directly with hot water and allowing it to settle in the cup. In Yogyakarta, kopi joss is known for its unusual preparation involving hot charcoal, while kopi terbalik from Aceh is served upside down as part of a distinctive local ritual. Ginseng coffee represents a more modern variation, blending coffee with herbal elements.

A Snapshot of a Changing Industry

The ranking reflects broader developments in Indonesia’s coffee sector, where traditional practices continue to coexist with modern approaches to cultivation and processing. Specialty Arabica is gaining international attention, while robusta remains essential to local consumption and identity.

TasteAtlas notes that its rankings are based on audience ratings, with systems designed to identify reliable input and reduce bias. The list is intended to highlight notable local products and encourage exploration, rather than serve as a definitive global classification.

Source

This article is adapted from a ranking published by TasteAtlas (March 18, 2026):
https://www.tasteatlas.com/best-rated-coffees-in-indonesia

Coffee Prices Rise on Supply Concerns

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Coffee futures rose on Monday, recovering from earlier losses as concerns over global supply disruptions supported the market.

May arabica gained 2.52 percent, rising 7.20 points, while May robusta edged up 0.46 percent, adding 16 points.

The rebound followed reports that the Strait of Hormuz has been closed, disrupting a key global shipping route. The development has pushed up freight rates, insurance costs, and fuel prices, increasing pressure on coffee importers and roasters worldwide.

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Earlier in the session, prices had moved lower as improved weather conditions in Brazil eased concerns about crop stress. Rainfall in Minas Gerais, the country’s main arabica-growing region, reached 57.7 millimeters last week, about 139 percent of the historical average.

Expectations of a large Brazilian harvest also continue to weigh on the market. StoneX recently raised its forecast for Brazil’s 2026 to 2027 coffee production to a record 75.3 million bags, up from 70.7 million.

Export data, however, provided some support. Figures from Cecafé showed Brazil’s green coffee exports fell 27 percent year on year in February to 2.3 million bags. Data from the country’s Trade Ministry also showed total coffee exports declined 17.4 percent to 142,000 metric tons.

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At the same time, rising inventories continue to weigh on prices. Arabica stocks monitored by Intercontinental Exchange climbed to 572,004 bags last week, the highest level in five and a half months. Robusta inventories also reached a three and a half month high earlier this month before easing slightly.

Coffee markets have been under pressure in recent weeks. In February, arabica fell to its lowest level in more than 15 months, while robusta dropped to a seven month low, largely due to expectations of a strong Brazilian crop.

Brazil’s crop agency Conab estimates 2026 production will rise 17.2 percent to 66.2 million bags. Arabica output is expected to increase 23.2 percent, while robusta production may grow 6.3 percent.

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Globally, Rabobank projects coffee production will reach a record 180 million bags in the 2026 to 2027 season, up by around 8 million bags from the previous year.

Strong supply from Vietnam has also added pressure to the market. Coffee exports from the country rose 14 percent in the first two months of 2026 to 366,000 metric tons, while full-year 2025 exports increased 17.5 percent. Production is expected to rise 6 percent to 1.76 million metric tons.

According to the International Coffee Organization, global coffee exports for the current season edged down 0.3 percent to 138.66 million bags. Meanwhile, the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service forecasts global production will increase 2 percent to a record 178.85 million bags, even as ending stocks are expected to decline by 5.4 percent to 20.15 million bags.

Coffee Prices Drop on Brazil Weather and Rising Stocks

Posted on by Qahwa World

Dubai – Qahwa World

Coffee markets fell on Wednesday amid favorable weather forecasts in Brazil and rising inventories monitored by the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE).

May arabica futures (KCK26) were down 8.70 points (-2.94%), while May ICE robusta (RMK26) declined 137 points (-3.71%). Showers expected in key Brazilian coffee-growing regions supported the recent price drop.

ICE data shows that arabica inventories, which fell to a 1.75-year low of 396,513 bags in November, recovered to a five-month high of 564,626 bags on Tuesday. Robusta inventories also rose to a 3.5-month peak before falling slightly to 4,563 lots as of Wednesday.

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Coffee prices had partially retraced last week’s rally triggered by the Iran conflict and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which increased global shipping rates, fuel, and insurance costs.

Brazil’s exports also influenced the market. According to Cecafe, February green coffee shipments fell by 27% year-on-year, while the Trade Ministry reported a 17.4% decline to 142,000 metric tons. Conversely, recent rains in Minas Gerais—the country’s largest arabica-producing state—amounted to 14.9 mm last week, about 35% of the historical average, offering some support to crop expectations.

Earlier in February, coffee prices hit multi-month lows amid forecasts of a record Brazilian crop. Conab projected Brazil’s 2026 coffee output at 66.2 million bags, with arabica rising 23.2% to 44.1 million bags and robusta up 6.3% to 22.1 million bags. Global production for 2026/27 is expected to reach 180 million bags, according to Rabobank.

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Vietnam’s coffee exports further pressured robusta prices. The National Statistics Office reported a 14% year-on-year rise to 366,000 MT for January–February 2026, while 2025 exports jumped 17.5% to 1.58 million MT. Production in 2025/26 is forecast to reach 1.76 million MT, a four-year high.

Despite these factors, the International Coffee Organization (ICO) noted a slight 0.3% year-on-year decline in global coffee exports for the current marketing year. The USDA’s Foreign Agriculture Service projects 2025/26 global production at 178.848 million bags, with arabica down 4.7% to 95.515 million bags and robusta up 10.9% to 83.333 million bags. Brazil’s production is expected to fall 3.1% to 63 million bags, while Vietnam rises 6.2% to 30.8 million bags. Ending stocks are forecast to decline 5.4% to 20.148 million bags.

Analysts say the combination of Brazilian rainfall, rising ICE inventories, and record production in Vietnam is likely to maintain downward pressure on coffee prices in the near term.