Category: News

Meals On Me Launches First Permanent Café at Padel Pro Dubai

Posted on by Qahwa World

DUBAI, UAE — Qahwa World

Meals On Me, a prominent UAE-based meal plan provider, has officially entered the physical retail market with the opening of its first permanent café located at Padel Pro in the Dubai World Trade Centre.

The new facility marks a strategic expansion for the brand, moving beyond its traditional subscription-based delivery model to offer on-the-go nutritional options. The café’s menu features a selection of the brand’s “Protein+” dishes, alongside healthy breakfast options, salads, sandwiches, and protein-enriched smoothies.

As part of the launch, Meals On Me has partnered with Nyala Coffee, a community-driven organization that sources coffee from African farmers and reinvests profits into vocational training for marginalized youth. This partnership integrates a social impact element into the café’s beverage offerings.

The official opening on November 27 was preceded by an exclusive community event featuring friendly padel matches and product tastings. To encourage engagement with its broader services, the company is offering a 15% discount on its long-term meal plans for customers who book a court at Padel Pro through December 31.

The café operates daily from 6:00 AM to midnight, catering to athletes, local professionals, and commuters looking for health-conscious dining options in the World Trade Centre area.

Arabica Coffee Drives Economic Development in Tiengan Ward

Posted on by Qahwa World

Vietnam—Qahwa World

Ward in Son La Province, northern Vietnam, is gradually becoming a center for high-quality Arabica coffee production. Coffee plantations are helping local residents increase their incomes and escape poverty. In 2025, the area is focusing on high-yield varieties, modern technologies, and cooperative farming models.

Just a few minutes from the provincial center, the green and productive Arabica coffee plantations of Tiengan Ward thrive. Thanks to an elevation of over 900 meters above sea level and a mild climate, the local coffee is known for its rich aroma and light acidity, making it suitable for specialty coffee production.

As of 2025, coffee plantations in Tiengan cover more than 350 hectares, with over 80% planted with high-yield Arabica. Yields reach 15–18 tons per hectare, 10–12% higher than during 2020–2023, reflecting changes in approaches to rural economic development.

Nguyen Van Tuan, Chairman of the People’s Committee of Tiengan Ward, Son La Province, stated: “Arabica is regarded as a key crop, with a focus on organic production and the renewal of varieties to improve both quality and local incomes.”

Ka Thi Thuong, the head of Tam Quynh Village in Tiengan Ward, was among the first to successfully switch to high-yield Arabica. She said: “The village covers 772 hectares. On average, about 8 tons of Arabica are harvested per hectare. This year’s yield was particularly high: the majority of families earned more than USD 3,800, while some earned over USD 38,000.”

Beyond Thuong’s family, more than 700 households in Tiengan rely on coffee for income, earning 120–150 million VND annually, contributing significantly to the local economy.

Today, Son La Province is the largest center for Arabica coffee in Vietnam, with over 20,000 hectares of plantations, representing nearly 60% of all Arabica-growing areas in the country. The “Son La Arabica” brand is gradually gaining national recognition, from coffee competitions to exports.

Vuong Van Hai, chairman of the provincial tea association, said:

“Son La focuses on producing high-quality specialty coffee and developing the sector according to geographical indications, while strictly adhering to quality standards and environmental requirements.”

Coffee not only generates income but also drives the development of primary and advanced processing, trade, and agrotourism, creating stable jobs for local residents.

Tiengan Ward aims to build a closed-loop “coffee economy” that combines environmental protection with sustainable development. One of the key initiatives in 2025 is the adoption of modern technologies in coffee cultivation: smart drip irrigation systems, the use of organic biofertilizers, and selective harvesting. These measures help achieve more uniform bean quality, higher sugar content, and consistent flavor.

From the first coffee trees planted on hillside slopes to today, Tiengan Ward is steadily moving toward a more prosperous economic future. Coffee beans have become a symbol of renewed thinking and confidence in modern agricultural development. As local farmers continue to tie their future to Arabica, the story of “prosperity from the mountains” is increasingly visible in the lush greenery of Tiengan’s coffee plantations.

Russia Sets Record for Brazilian Coffee Imports

Posted on by Qahwa World

Moscow – Qahwa World

Russia significantly increased its imports of coffee from Brazil between January and November, with the total value reaching nearly $390 million — the highest level recorded to date, according to official Brazilian statistics.

Since the beginning of the year, Brazilian coffee shipments to Russia amounted to approximately $392.6 million, compared with about $232.3 million over the same period last year, highlighting a sharp expansion in bilateral trade within this segment.

Import volumes also rose in physical terms, totaling 62.3 thousand tonnes, which represents a 13% year-on-year increase.

As a result of the higher purchases, Russia ranked 11th among the world’s largest importers of Brazilian coffee. Germany remained the leading destination with imports worth around $2.1 billion, followed by the United States at $1.8 billion and Italy at approximately $1.2 billion.

Other major markets for Brazilian coffee during the period included Japan and Belgium, as well as the Netherlands, Türkiye, and Spain, while China also featured among the top ten importing countries.

Luckin Coffee Explores Potential Acquisition of Blue Bottle Coffee

Posted on by Qahwa World

Dubai – Qahwa World

Chinese coffee chain Luckin Coffee is reportedly evaluating a potential acquisition of Blue Bottle Coffee, the specialty coffee brand majority-owned by Nestlé, as part of its strategy to strengthen its presence in the premium coffee segment.

Sources indicate that Luckin and its main investor, Centurium Capital, are pursuing moves to build a portfolio of premium coffee brands and expand their global footprint. This potential bid follows reports that Nestlé was considering selling its stake in the California-based Blue Bottle, which it acquired in 2017 for $425 million, valuing the company at roughly $700 million. Current estimates suggest the brand could now be sold at a lower price.

Blue Bottle Coffee operates over 100 boutique cafés in the United States and East Asia, including 12 locations in mainland China and four in Hong Kong.

In addition to Blue Bottle, Luckin and Centurium are said to be exploring a bid for Lucky Ace International Ltd., the holder of master franchise rights for Japanese specialty chain % Arabica in China and Hong Kong. % Arabica currently runs 84 outlets in mainland China and 15 in Hong Kong.

Centurium Capital, which had previously shown interest in Coca-Cola’s Costa Coffee, appears to have shifted focus toward the Luckin expansion strategy.

Luckin Coffee, China’s largest coffee chain with more than 29,000 stores nationwide, significantly outpaces its nearest competitor, Cotti Coffee. Centurium became Luckin’s controlling shareholder in January 2022, holding over 50% of voting rights, following previous investments that helped the company recover from accounting issues and restructure debt.

Beyond China, Luckin has expanded internationally with 68 stores in Singapore, 45 in Malaysia, and five in the United States. CEO Jinyi Guo announced in November 2025 that the company is preparing for a new public listing in the United States.

Historic Sale at Cerrado Mineiro: Coffee Bag Fetches $38,500

Posted on by Qahwa World

Patrocínio, Brazil – Qahwa World

A bag of specialty coffee from Brazil’s Cerrado Mineiro region has reached a record price of US$38,500 at the 13th Cerrado Mineiro Regional Award in Uberlândia, Minas Gerais. The lot, winning the Pulped Cherry category, was cultivated by Eduardo Pinheiro Campos of Fazenda Dona Nenem in Presidente Olegário and purchased by a consortium led by Expocacer, in collaboration with Veloso Green Coffee, Marex, and Nucoffee.

The runner-up bid of US$19,250 went to Louis Dreyfus Company for the champion of the Natural category. The strong competition reflects growing worldwide interest in Cerrado Mineiro coffees.

The Cerrado Mineiro Coffee Growers Federation confirmed that this is the highest amount ever paid for a coffee bag at an auction in Brazil. The auction raised a total of US$108,500 across nine lots, averaging US$12,000 per bag.

Eduardo Pinheiro Campos commented: “This achievement honors our hardworking team. It reflects years of dedication, awards, and excellence. Over the thirteen editions of this competition, we have reached the podium eleven times, showing consistent quality and commitment.”

Simão Pedro, President of Expocacer, added: “When buyers compete at this level, it demonstrates the global recognition of our quality, sustainability, and innovation. Expocacer is proud to lead Brazil’s coffee sector, proving that our specialty coffee sets benchmarks internationally.”

The 13th Cerrado Mineiro Regional Award showcased the best coffees of the 2025–2026 harvest in four categories: Natural, Pulped Cherry, Fermented, and Sweet Cerrado Mineiro. Expocacer members won first place in Pulped Cherry and shared first place in Sweet Cerrado Mineiro.

Forty percent of the auction proceeds (US$43,400) will benefit the Escola de Atitude project, which supports youth education and personal development in coffee-growing communities.

Highlights of Expocacer at the 13th Cerrado Mineiro Regional Award

Eduardo Pinheiro Campos – First place, Pulped Cherry (90.59 points)

Maria Soraia Guimarães – Third place, Pulped Cherry (89.18 points)

Guima Café – First place (shared), Sweet Cerrado Mineiro

About Expocacer
Founded in 1993 in Patrocínio, Minas Gerais, Expocacer is a cooperative of coffee producers supporting over 740 members. With modern facilities, including warehouses holding over one million coffee bags, the cooperative exports specialty coffee to more than 35 countries while promoting social and environmental initiatives.

UK Becomes Joe & The Juice’s Largest Global Market, Surpassing Denmark

Posted on by Qahwa World

Dubai – Qahwa World

Joe & The Juice has positioned the United Kingdom as its biggest market worldwide after an accelerated store rollout over the past year, overtaking its home market of Denmark.

The Copenhagen-founded brand added 16 new locations across the UK in 2025, bringing its total to 89 outlets nationwide. This places the UK ahead of Denmark, where the company operates 78 stores, and the United States with 74 locations.

The expansion includes a new flagship store in Manchester, along with first-time openings in cities such as Cambridge, Bath, and Bristol. Since entering the UK market in 2009 with a debut store on London’s Regent Street, the brand has steadily strengthened its presence across the country.

Jon James, Managing Director for the UK, said customer demand has exceeded expectations, with newly opened stores delivering strong performance. He noted that the positive response has reinforced confidence in further regional expansion across the UK.

Joe & The Juice now operates more than 460 stores in 23 international markets. In 2024, CEO Thomas Nørøxe stated that the UK could ultimately support up to 500 locations as part of the company’s broader ambition to reach 1,000 global outlets by 2029. Recent market entries include Turkey, Morocco, and Mexico.

The company has been majority-owned by New York–based investment firm General Atlantic since November 2023. Reports indicate that the firm is assessing the possibility of a US stock market listing for Joe & The Juice as early as 2026.

Coca-Cola Makes Last-Minute Effort to Revive Costa Coffee Sale Talks

Posted on by Qahwa World

London – Qahwa World

Coca-Cola is reportedly making a final attempt to keep negotiations alive over the potential sale of Costa Coffee, as discussions with its preferred buyer have slowed due to disagreements on valuation.

According to international media reports, talks between the US beverage group and London-based private equity firm TDR Capital have reached an impasse. TDR, the owner of UK supermarket chain Asda, was recently named the leading contender to acquire Costa Coffee. The proposed transaction would reportedly cover Costa’s UK and global operations, while excluding its approximately 300 stores in China.

Sources familiar with the matter indicate that Coca-Cola is seeking a valuation close to $2 billion for the 4,200-store coffee chain. This figure represents a significant reduction from the $4.9 billion the company paid when it acquired Costa Coffee in early 2019. A final decision on the future of the brand is expected before December 21, 2025.

In an effort to secure an agreement, Coca-Cola is said to be open to alternative deal structures, including the sale of a controlling stake rather than a complete exit.

The company began formally reviewing strategic options for Costa Coffee in August 2025. The move followed comments from outgoing Chief Executive James Quincey, who acknowledged to investors that the performance of the coffee business had fallen short of expectations and had not delivered the returns initially anticipated.

Several investment groups have previously expressed interest in Costa Coffee. These include US-based Bain Capital and China’s Centurium Capital, which owns Luckin Coffee. Other major private equity firms, including Apollo and KKR, are understood to have withdrawn from the process in recent months.

Coffee Quality Institute CEO Delivers Key Message to Global Coffee Community

Posted on by Qahwa World

DUBAI – Qahwa World

Michael Sheridan, CEO of the Coffee Quality Institute (CQI), delivered an important message to the coffee community and CQI members, reviewing the organization’s key achievements during 2025 and outlining future plans for 2026.

In his message, which coincides with the approaching year-end, Michael Sheridan highlighted a busy fourth quarter of 2025, marked by extensive educational outreach and strategic planning for the organization’s future.

Sheridan noted that the closing quarter was highly active, emphasizing CQI’s role in supporting a growing network of CQI Educators who are conducting coffee processing courses worldwide. The primary focus was on collaborating with both long-time and new partners on projects specifically designed to empower coffee producers.

Sheridan stated: “The three initiatives highlighted below delivered coffee education to more than 350 women coffee producers in Mexico and Colombia, and they don’t even tell the full story of our Q4 project work.”

These efforts underscore CQI’s core mission of creating educational opportunities for the producers who represent the heart of the industry.

Behind the scenes, the CQI team has been intensely focused on strategic planning for the next phase of its work. The organization expressed deep gratitude to its community for generous contributions, which are critical in determining the course for the future.

Consultation efforts spanned the globe, including:

Conversations with producers in El Salvador, Indonesia, Mexico, and Peru.

Hundreds of online surveys completed by producers, processors, traders, roasters, Q Graders, CQI Educators, and other stakeholders.

Dozens of personal interviews.

Sheridan affirmed: “We look forward to reporting back to you on what we heard and how we believe we can best serve CQI’s worthy mission together.”

Despite historic market volatility and massive disinvestment in economic development in coffee-growing regions, Sheridan reaffirmed CQI’s unwavering commitment to its foundational mission.

He said: “The year behind us has been marked by plenty of change and disruption in the coffee sector, and it hasn’t always been easy… Through it all, we have returned again and again for inspiration and orientation to our mission to improve the quality of coffee and the lives of the people who produce it. Against this backdrop, this work has never felt more important.”

Sheridan announced that the team will take a necessary rest period at the end of this month but plans to “hit the ground running in the New Year.”

Sheridan concluded the message by extending warm wishes on behalf of the Institute’s staff and board, saying: “I want to wish you all joy, good health, and peace this holiday season, and a great start to the New Year. And I know I also speak for everyone on the team when I say that I look forward to seeing you and working with you in 2026 to advance our mission together.”

It is worth noting that the Coffee Quality Institute is a non-profit organization dedicated to improving the quality of coffee and the lives of the people who produce it.

CQI CEO Michael Sheridan: 2026 Plans & 350 Women Producers Trained in 2025

World of Coffee Dubai 2026 Announces Largest Origin Participation in Event History

Posted on by Qahwa World

Key Highlights

  • Record-Breaking Participation: A record 76 producers are confirmed for the 2026 edition, marking the largest origin participation in the event’s history.

  • Most Diverse International Line-Up: Eight national pavilions will headline the most internationally diverse World of Coffee Dubai to date, including first-time participation from Kenya and Peru.

  • Export Growth Momentum: The announcement follows strong export performance, with Kenya’s coffee export volumes rising by 12% and Ethiopia generating USD 2.65 billion in revenue, reflecting strengthening Middle Eastern demand.

Dubai – Qahwa World

World of Coffee Dubai 2026 is set to deliver its most diverse and internationally representative edition to date, welcoming an expanded roster of origins, national pavilions, and producer organisations from across Africa, Latin America, and Asia.

Taking place from 18–20 January 2026 at Dubai World Trade Centre (DWTC), the fifth edition—organised by DXB LIVE, DWTC’s integrated event management and experiential agency, in collaboration with the Specialty Coffee Association (SCA)—reinforces Dubai’s position as the MENA region’s leading specialty coffee hub.

The 2026 event will host eight national pavilions, including Ethiopia, India, Saudi Arabia, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Panama, and Brazil, with Kenya and Peru joining the show for the first time. Returning origins such as Colombia, Guatemala, Indonesia, Mexico, and Rwanda will also participate with strengthened delegations, underscoring the event’s reputation as one of the world’s most comprehensive showcases of global coffee origins.

Record Producer Engagement and Direct Trade Focus

This year’s edition will welcome more than 76 producers, the highest number in the event’s history, reflecting the growing importance of Middle Eastern markets in shaping global coffee trade.

The Producers Village, a dedicated meeting hub where farmers, buyers, roasters, and importers connect directly, will feature 14 curated spaces highlighting a wide range of terroirs, processing methods, and farm-level perspectives from across the coffee belt. Several of these producers will also be featured in three daily coffee auctions, offering buyers access to rare micro-lots, experimental processes, and distinctive coffees not previously available in the region.

Complementing this strong producer presence, the exhibition will also welcome participation from leading national coffee boards and export bodies, including:

  • Associação Brasileira de Cafés Especiais

  • Instituto del Café de Costa Rica

  • Specialty Coffee Association of Panama

  • PROMPERÚ

  • Ethiopian Coffee and Tea Authority

  • Kenya Coffee Directorate

  • Saudi Coffee Company

Their involvement further enriches the show’s depth of origin representation and reflects growing global interest in the GCC’s specialty coffee landscape.

Middle East Demand Reshaping Global Export Trends

Across several producing nations, recent export trends show increasing alignment with Middle Eastern buyer preferences.

Kenya recorded a 12% rise in coffee export volumes in 2024, one of its strongest-performing seasons in recent years, with exporters reporting increased demand from Gulf-based roasters for both washed and naturally processed Kenyan coffees.

Ethiopia, Africa’s largest coffee producer, generated USD 2.65 billion (approximately AED 10 billion) in coffee export revenues during the 2024/2025 fiscal year, driven by growing demand for naturally processed and honey-processed coffees in both the UAE and Saudi Arabia.

Across Africa, coffee export volumes increased by 8% year-on-year in late 2024, reflecting broader international momentum behind the continent’s specialty-grade offerings.

These developments mirror the maturation of the region’s specialty coffee ecosystem, where roasters are increasingly embracing lighter roasting styles, seasonal single origins, and fermentation-led flavour profiles. This evolution has encouraged producers to prioritise Dubai as a long-term entry point into the Middle East, reinforcing the event’s role as a strategic platform where relationships, discovery, and direct trade meaningfully intersect.

Industry Perspectives

Shouq Bin Redha, Exhibition Manager of World of Coffee Dubai, said: “The scale and diversity of origin participation this year reflects a fundamental shift in the global coffee movement. Producers are no longer viewing the Middle East as a peripheral market; they are actively shaping their export strategies around it. The presence of first-time pavilions from Kenya and Peru, alongside expanded delegations from long-established origins, demonstrates how Dubai has become a true crossroads for global coffee trade—where quality, sourcing strategy, and business opportunity converge.”

Khalid Al Mulla, CEO of the Speciality Coffee Association UAE Chapter, added: “The specialty coffee community in the region has grown more sophisticated, more curious, and far more quality-driven. Roasters are seeking meaningful, long-term relationships with origin, while consumers are looking for diversity in flavour and story. Producers are responding with a level of engagement and investment we have never seen before. World of Coffee Dubai 2026 captures this moment, where global origin culture and regional demand are aligning in ways that are reshaping the future of the specialty coffee market across the Middle East.”

With strengthened origin representation, a record number of producers, and rising interest from both heritage and emerging producing regions, World of Coffee Dubai 2026 stands as a defining edition in the Middle East’s growing influence on the global specialty coffee landscape. The event continues to advance a more interconnected future for producers, buyers, and roasters across the value chain, reinforcing Dubai’s position as one of the world’s most significant destinations for specialty coffee.

Exhibitors can now secure their spaces for World of Coffee Dubai 2026, while early bird tickets for visitors are available through the official website.

About World of Coffee Dubai

World of Coffee Dubai (WOC Dubai) is the region’s premier coffee trade show, serving exhibitors and visitors seeking to engage with the Middle East’s rapidly growing coffee industry. The event features flagship attractions such as the Roaster Village, Cupping Room, SCA UAE National Championships, and Producers Village, bringing together producers, roasters, importers, coffee shops, hotels, and industry professionals from around the world.

About the Specialty Coffee Association (SCA)

The Specialty Coffee Association (SCA) is the world’s largest nonprofit, membership-based trade association for the coffee industry. Representing thousands of professionals globally, the SCA works to foster a thriving, equitable, and sustainable specialty coffee sector through collaboration, education, and innovation across the entire value chain.

About DXB LIVE

DXB LIVE is the integrated event management and experiential agency of Dubai World Trade Centre. Leveraging its creative, technical, and operational expertise, DXB LIVE delivers world-class exhibitions, conferences, festivals, and major corporate events, providing services for more than 100 major events annually and reinforcing its position among the world’s leading event companies

Arabica Coffee Prices Rise as Brazil Ships Fewer Beans

Posted on by Qahwa World

Dubai – Qahwa World

Arabica coffee futures finished the session higher, supported by a notable slowdown in Brazilian export activity and limited rainfall in major producing regions. Meanwhile, robusta prices edged lower as strong supply expectations continued to weigh on the market.

Market support for arabica strengthened after Brazil’s coffee export sector reported a sharp contraction in outbound shipments during November. Export volumes of green coffee dropped significantly compared with the same period last year, signaling tighter near-term availability from the world’s largest producer.

Weather conditions in Brazil added to price support. Rainfall in Minas Gerais, the country’s primary arabica-growing state, remained well below seasonal norms in early December, raising concerns about moisture levels during a critical stage of crop development.

In contrast, robusta prices faced downward pressure amid rising supply from Southeast Asia. Vietnam recorded a substantial increase in coffee exports in November, with cumulative shipments for the year also showing solid growth. These figures reinforced expectations of abundant robusta availability in the global market.

Recent price weakness earlier in the week was driven by revised production forecasts. Brazil’s official crop agency increased its outlook for the 2025 coffee harvest, pointing to higher overall output compared with earlier estimates.

Regulatory developments in Europe also influenced sentiment. Lawmakers approved a postponement of the European Union’s deforestation-related import rules, a move that is expected to allow continued coffee flows from several producing regions and ease short-term supply constraints for European buyers.

Stock movements offered mixed signals. Certified arabica inventories monitored by the ICE exchange rebounded from recent lows, while robusta stock levels declined further. In the United States, coffee inventories remain tight following reduced purchases of Brazilian coffee earlier in the year during a period of trade disruptions.

Looking ahead, production forecasts suggest robusta supplies will remain ample. Vietnam’s coffee output is projected to rise in the upcoming season, potentially reaching its highest level in several years if weather conditions remain favorable.

At the global level, export data indicate a slight slowdown in shipments for the current marketing year. However, international agricultural forecasts continue to point toward record worldwide coffee production in the next season, driven by expanding robusta output despite a modest decline in arabica production.

Lablibell Crowned UAE Lavazza Barista Champion

Posted on by Qahwa World

Dubai – Qahwa World

Lablibell has been crowned the UAE Lavazza Barista Champion for this year, achieving a well-deserved victory that qualifies her to represent the nation at the Lavazza World Barista Championships in Italy in February 2026.

The finals were held on Thursday, December 11th, at the Grosvenor House Hotel in Dubai Marina, where the competition showcased the talent and passion of the nation’s top baristas.

Lablibell impressed the judges with her signature drink titled “Beyond Times,” inspired by her professional journey and continuous development in the art of coffee preparation. The champion used the distinguished Lavazza Kafa Forest Beans as the base for her espresso, presenting a winning cup that combined heritage, passion, and high skill.

The champion expressed her delight and deep gratitude to everyone who contributed to supporting her throughout the intense competition journey. Lablibell affirmed that the road to the title was filled with challenges and learning, which only deepened her passion for the craft she loves. She also commended the strong spirit of competition among all participants, appreciating their creativity and commitment.

This victory is the culmination of significant effort. Lablibell extended her thanks to everyone who assisted her in training and refining her skills, highlighting the support received from the local coffee community and the competition organizers.

Global Coffee Market: Collapsing Inventories and a Fragile Price Truce

Posted on by Qahwa World

Dubai – Qahwa World

The global coffee market is currently resting in a precarious calm, according to the International Coffee Organization’s (ICO) November 2025 Market Report. Despite major geopolitical and climatic events, the ICO Composite Indicator Price (I-CIP) showed only a marginal rise of 1.2%, averaging 330.44 US cents/lb.

This unexpected stability is not a sign of market health, but rather the result of a dramatic “offsetting effect” between two powerful, opposing forces: a historical US decision to soften tariffs on Brazilian coffee imports (a bearish signal), and devastating floods that struck Vietnam’s Central Highlands (a bullish factor).

  • The Damp Squib of US Tariff Relief

The most significant political event of the month was the US administration’s move to phase out the additional 40% tariff previously imposed on Brazilian coffee imports. This action should have triggered a sharp price correction downward, given Brazil’s status as the world’s largest producer.

The Professional Read: The market reaction was surprisingly muted. The I-CIP did dip to its monthly low (320.39 cents/lb) following the announcement, but the effect dissipated within three days. Analysts concur that the market had “priced in” the removal of the tariffs beforehand, drastically reducing the impact.

Compounding the lack of immediate bearish pressure, Brazil’s export performance remains subdued. Exports of Brazilian Naturals declined by 8.2% in October, marking the eighth consecutive month of negative growth for this key group, highlighting underlying challenges linked to the Arabica production cycle and not just trade barriers.

  • Vietnam’s Catastrophe: The Unlikely Price Stabilizer

As the US news failed to exert sustained downward pressure, a major climatic shock in Asia provided the necessary counter-balance. Severe flooding hit Vietnam’s Central Highlands, the global nucleus for Robusta coffee production.

• Destruction Estimates: Initial reports from Dak Lak indicated that an estimated 10% to 15% of the 2025/26 coffee crop, which was already harvested and undergoing the drying process, was significantly damaged.
• Price Resilience: This dire news provided crucial support, preventing Robusta coffee prices from sliding (they contracted only a negligible 0.1%). Furthermore, the supply concerns emanating from Asia helped push all Arabica groups (including Brazilian Naturals and Colombian Milds) higher, with increases ranging from 1.4% to 1.8%, contributing strongly to the overall I-CIP stability.

  • The Red Flag: Global Inventory Collapse

The most alarming data point in the ICO report is the state of exchange-certified stocks, which are rapidly depleting and indicate a severe structural vulnerability in the global supply chain.

• Robusta Stocks Crash: Certified Robusta coffee stocks at the London exchange plunged by a dramatic 28.3% in November, settling at a precarious 0.73 million bags.
• Arabica Drawdown: Arabica stocks in New York also drew down by 5.9%.

This inventory collapse means the market is quickly losing its buffer capacity. It is becoming almost entirely reliant on continuous, smooth flows of new harvests, making it exceptionally sensitive to any disruptions (like the future fallout from the Vietnam floods) and highly susceptible to sharp, upward price spikes.

  • Shifting Tides: The Decline of Latin American Dominance

While total global green coffee exports saw a slight rise of 1.9% in October 2025, the geographical distribution reveals a critical strategic shift.

• South America Retreats: Exports from South America (driven mainly by Brazil) declined by 13.0%, marking the eleventh consecutive month of negative growth for the region.
• Africa and Asia Surge: This gap was aggressively filled by other origins: Asia and Oceania exports jumped 23.9% (fueled by Vietnam), and African exports soared by 21.9% (led by Ethiopia and Uganda).
• Arabica Share Shrinks: The total share of Arabica coffee in green exports fell to 68.8% from 70.2% the previous year, underscoring the market’s increasing dependence on Robusta coffee to meet overall global demand.

  • The Bottom Line

The price stability observed in November was a fluke, a result of powerful forces cancelling each other out. The true economic background—collapsing exchange inventories and the sustained export decline from the world’s largest producer—suggests the market is in a highly precarious state of “active waiting.

The coffee sector is now dangerously exposed. Any further negative climate report or logistical disruption will likely shatter the current equilibrium, immediately unleashing a sharp, acute wave of price volatility. Buyers should prepare for potential supply shocks and the associated upward pricing pressure in the coming months.