Category: News

Dubai – Qahwa World

Coffee futures recorded a broad decline on Tuesday, with both arabica and robusta ending the session lower as expectations for stronger global supply grew. The market reacted notably to the European Parliament’s decision to postpone enforcement of its deforestation regulation for one year, a move that keeps coffee shipments flowing from major producing regions in Africa, Indonesia and South America. This delay helped ease concerns about restricted supplies and contributed to the price drop.

Additional downward pressure came from Vietnam, where industry officials indicated that the new robusta harvest is progressing smoothly and exports are set to rise. Early-season dry weather has allowed farmers to speed up harvesting, adding to expectations of increased availability from the world’s largest robusta producer.

In Brazil, rainfall in Minas Gerais remained well below historical averages, a factor that continues to influence sentiment around arabica crops. At the same time, exchange-certified stocks monitored by ICE continue to decline. The reduction is partly attributed to lower U.S. imports of Brazilian coffee following recently imposed tariffs, which have led to a significant drawdown in warehouse inventories.

However, the market also weighed future supply expectations. A recent outlook suggested that Brazil could see a substantial increase in production for the 2026/27 season, particularly in arabica. Vietnam’s export performance has already strengthened this year, and early projections for the upcoming season indicate another increase if favorable weather persists.

Global export figures from the International Coffee Organization showed a slight fall in shipments for the current marketing year, providing some support to prices. Earlier in the season, Brazil’s crop agency also revised downward its estimates for arabica and total coffee output in 2025.

Long-term projections from the U.S. Department of Agriculture point to record global coffee production in 2025/26, driven primarily by robusta, while arabica may see a small decline. The agency also expects global ending stocks to grow compared with the previous year.

Dubai – Qahwa World

Following the repeal of coffee tariffs imposed by the former U.S. administration, the specialty coffee scene in Portland, Oregon, has seen little immediate recovery, as high operational costs continue to pressure independent cafés and roasters.

Portland, often cited as a cornerstone of America’s coffee culture, is grappling with a steep rise in coffee prices, compounding financial strain on small businesses. Even with the official removal of the 10% reciprocal tariff—initially imposed in April—the lag time in the global supply chain means high costs will persist for months.

Laila Ghambari, who owns Guilder Coffee Company, highlighted the immediate pressure, noting that specialty coffee bags on their shelves retail for as much as $28.50. “That is a significant price point for a bag of coffee,” she stated, explaining that although the duty has been revoked, all inventory already imported into the U.S. remains subject to the prior tariff structure. For her business, this small duty added approximately fifty cents to the cost of each bag.

This tariff burden arrived amid an already turbulent market. Global coffee prices were already climbing due to intense demand for high-quality beans and severe weather events, such as crop-damaging frost in key growing regions. The U.S. retail price for 100% ground roast coffee reached a historic peak of $9.14 per pound in September, according to figures released by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis—a stark contrast to the pre-pandemic average of just over $4.00 per pound in late 2019.

Christopher Hendon, a chemistry professor at the University of Oregon and a respected coffee industry analyst, suggested that the tariffs disproportionately affect small operators. While the slight cost increase may not deter the average consumer, he cautions that the tariffs threaten the viability of local establishments. “The consumer probably isn’t feeling a huge difference right now,” Hendon commented. “But they will certainly notice if their neighborhood café is forced to close its doors.”

For local roasters, the financial impact has been severe. Charlie Wicker, who runs Trail Head Coffee, described the toll the tariffs took on his roasting operation. He was forced to downsize his staff, reducing his workforce to just himself and one part-time employee. “The fact that we are still operating is solely a result of having some accumulated savings to keep the lights on,” Wicker shared.

The coffee supply chain, which often requires roasters and cafés to place orders many months in advance, means that economic recovery will be slow to materialize. Ghambari estimates that Guilder Coffee will not see its first shipment of genuinely tariff-free coffees arrive at their warehouse until February.

For business owners like Wicker, the eventual arrival of these lower-cost imports is crucial. The reversal of the duties represents a much-needed lifeline that will allow small businesses to reinvest and stabilize their operations in the coming year.