Category: Studies

Who Roasts Coffee in Kazakhstan – Poster Research

Posted on by Qahwa World

Dubai – Qahwa World

Just five years ago, Kazakhstan’s coffeehouses were supplied by only four or five local roasters. Today, there are more than twenty. The main driver is a clear shift in consumer behavior away from instant coffee and toward higher-quality roasted beans.

This research by the café and restaurant automation company Poster explains what a “typical” Kazakhstani roaster looks like, the equipment they use, and how they sell their coffee.

Audience and Methodology

The questionnaire was completed by 11 coffee roasting companies from cities across Kazakhstan, including Almaty and Karaganda. Together, they represent more than 50% of active roasters in the country.
Participants: Spectre Coffee, Barista Coffee, Local Coffee Company, Serikov Coffee Company, Choose Coffee, Flask Coffee, Grossa Coffee Roasters, Master Coffee Roasters, Cosmic Garden Coffee, Atyrau Coffee Roasters, Born Brave Coffee Roasters.
All results are presented using median values.

Prices and Product Range

On average, roasters offer 19 coffee SKUs (minimum 7; maximum 50+).
The lowest price averages ₸10,000 per kg, while the highest price averages ₸35,000 per kg. Exclusive specialty lots can reach ₸239,000 per kg.

Sales and Distribution

  • 64% of roasters operate their own cafés (about two per brand).

  • 100% sell retail to guests and wholesale to HoReCa.

  • 45% work with retail chains.

  • Retail sales account for a median 17.5% of revenue.

  • 64% have an online store.

  • 100% offer grind-on-demand and free delivery.

  • 73% produce their own blends.

  • 10% of roasting volume is dedicated to filter coffee.

Websites and Social Media

  • 73% have a website.

  • 100% have Instagram accounts, with a median of 2,169 followers.

  • 82% publish educational content about origins, brewing, and coffee culture.

Equipment and Productivity

All respondents own their roasters (not rented). The most popular brand is Giesen (~45%), followed by Probat, Stronghold, and others.
Typical monthly output per roastery is around 3,000 kg:

  • 22% produce < 3,000 kg

  • 56% produce 3,000–5,000 kg

  • 22% produce > 5,000 kg

Market Challenges

Roasters point to the following key challenges: tenge devaluation, rising raw-material prices, price-dumping by competitors, and low margins.

A note on logistics from Chikhun Jong, founder of Flask Coffee (Almaty): Kazakhstan is the world’s largest landlocked country; without a major seaport, logistics remain a serious issue and importing is very expensive.

Expert Comment

Rodion Yeroshek, CEO and Co-founder of Poster: In recent years, Kazakhstan has seen a real coffee boom. Dozens of cafés have opened, including high-quality specialty venues. Roasting is growing, barista communities are forming, and consumers are eager to explore — all of which position Kazakhstan as a potential specialty-coffee hub for Central Asia. Poster supports cafés and roasters with simple, integrated automation — POS, inventory, finance, and analytics — so teams can focus on product quality and people.

About Poster

Poster is the first cloud-based automation system for cafés and restaurants in Central Asia (founded in 2013). It covers POS, inventory, QR menus, AI assistants, delivery, finance, analytics, and CRM.
Today, Poster serves 28,000 businesses in 110 countries, including 2,000 clients in Kazakhstan, and processes about 1.8 million transactions daily.

When Coffee Helps and When It Hurts: What Science Reveals About the World’s Favorite Drink

Posted on by Qahwa World

Dubai – Qahwa World

Why can some people drink espresso like water while others end up sleepless and anxious? Scientists say it all comes down to biology, genetics, and how the body processes caffeine. A growing body of research shows that while coffee brings clear health benefits for many, it can also pose serious risks for others.

Mic the Vegan, a science communicator with a Master’s degree in Public Health, recently reviewed dozens of clinical studies exploring the full spectrum of coffee’s health effects—from heart health and mental well-being to dementia and gene-based metabolism. His analysis paints a nuanced picture of when coffee supports health—and when it does not. “I’m not a coffee hater or a coffee addict,” Mic said. “I just wanted to understand why I react so strongly to coffee, and the science behind it.”

The Stimulant Effect: Energy, Focus, and Anxiety

Caffeine blocks adenosine, the chemical that makes us sleepy, while boosting dopamine and adrenaline levels. This combination explains why coffee is the world’s most consumed stimulant. A randomized crossover trial found that participants walked an average of 1,000 more steps per day when drinking coffee, a behavioral boost that may partly explain why moderate coffee drinkers experience lower cardiovascular mortality. Coffee also improves reaction time, processing speed, and alertness—so much so that even e-sports players perform better after caffeine. Yet overstimulation has a cost. High caffeine doses can trigger anxiety or panic attacks in sensitive individuals. Mic himself admits to “a little spice of anxiety” after several cups. One promising solution is L-theanine, a calming amino acid found in green tea. In studies, combining 100 mg of L-theanine with caffeine reduced anxiety while preserving focus.

Heart Health: A Double-Edged Sword

Across large population studies, moderate coffee intake—typically two to three cups per day—is linked with a 10–20% reduction in overall mortality. Among people who have survived a heart attack, those drinking two or more cups daily saw up to a 40% lower risk of death. Scientists attribute this benefit to coffee’s high antioxidant content, which may reduce arterial inflammation. However, not everyone benefits. Cardiologists at the Cleveland Clinic note that a morning cup can raise blood pressure by up to 10 points, enough to push some hypertensive patients into a danger zone. For individuals with grade 2–3 hypertension, an American Heart Association study found that drinking two or three cups per day doubled cardiovascular mortality risk. Excess caffeine can also constrict blood vessels. A 250 mg dose (about a large café serving) can cut cerebral blood flow by 22–30%, though regular drinkers appear to adapt over time. Interestingly, caffeine withdrawal temporarily increases blood flow, which may explain caffeine-withdrawal headaches.

Mental Health and Brain Function

Coffee’s link with mental health is complex. On one hand, high caffeine intake can heighten anxiety; on the other, moderate consumption is consistently associated with lower rates of depression. Studies suggest that people who drink two or more cups daily have a 32% lower prevalence of depression compared with non-drinkers. When it comes to long-term brain health, the evidence is mixed. A major meta-analysis found no significant change in overall dementia risk, but coffee drinkers showed nearly a 30% lower risk of Alzheimer’s disease. Another study, however, linked six or more cups per day—both caffeinated and decaf—with a 50% higher risk of dementia. Scientists caution that very high consumption may have cumulative vascular effects.

 

View this post on Instagram

 

A post shared by قهوة ورلد (@qahwaworld)

Genes That Decide Whether Coffee Helps or Hurts

The liver enzyme gene CYP1A2 determines how quickly the body breaks down caffeine. Slow metabolizers have a two-fold higher risk of heart attack if they drink two or more cups daily. They are also more prone to insomnia and anxiety. Mic analyzed his own DNA and found he is an intermediate metabolizer (AC variant)—not highly tolerant but not overly sensitive. Another gene, ADORA2A, influences how caffeine affects sleep and mood, further explaining why coffee tolerance varies widely among individuals.

Beyond the Cup: Other Health Findings

Despite popular belief, large population studies show no clear association between coffee and acid reflux. Increasing coffee intake by just one cup a day was associated with an 11% lower risk of developing type 2 diabetes. Results are mixed regarding obesity—some trials found coffee improved body composition, while others reported increased cravings for sweets. Adding cream or cow’s milk can reduce coffee’s antioxidant and longevity benefits; black or plant-based coffee maintains them. Early 2025 research observed higher levels of Locinobacter saccharolyticus, a beneficial butyrate-producing bacterium, in coffee drinkers, though findings remain preliminary.

The Verdict: It Depends on You

On average, moderate coffee consumption appears beneficial—boosting cognition, protecting against depression, and supporting longevity. But for people with high blood pressure, slow caffeine metabolism, or heavy daily intake, risks may outweigh rewards. The healthiest approach is simple: keep it black or plant-based, limit intake to two or three cups daily, enjoy it in the morning, and pair it with L-theanine if you’re sensitive to caffeine. “Twice the risk of heart disease if you don’t have the right caffeine metabolism genes—that just blows my mind,” Mic concludes. Coffee, it turns out, is not universally good or bad. It’s a potent, plant-based stimulant—one that rewards moderation, respect, and understanding of your own biology before you pour the next cup.

UAE Researchers Turn Coffee and Plastic Waste Into a Powerful Carbon Capture Material

Posted on by Qahwa World

Sharjah – Qahwa World

In a groundbreaking achievement, researchers at the University of Sharjah have developed and patented an innovative carbon capture technology that transforms used coffee grounds and plastic waste into a highly efficient material capable of absorbing carbon dioxide (CO₂) from industrial emissions before they reach the atmosphere.

The patent, filed in March 2025 and published in August, represents a major step forward in the UAE’s scientific contribution to climate innovation, tackling both carbon pollution and solid waste through a single, sustainable solution.

From Coffee Cup to Carbon Capture

The new method combines spent coffee grounds (SCG), polyethylene terephthalate (PET) — a widely used plastic in bottles and packaging — and potassium hydroxide (KOH) as a chemical activator.
Through co-pyrolysis at an eco-friendly activation temperature of 600 °C, the process yields activated carbon with an exceptionally high surface area and fine pore structure, making it highly effective in trapping CO₂ molecules.

“What begins with a Starbucks coffee cup and a discarded plastic water bottle can become a powerful tool in the fight against climate change through the production of activated carbon,”
said Dr. Haif Aljomard, lead inventor of the technology.

Dr. Aljomard emphasized that the process supports both waste valorization and climate change mitigation, turning two abundant waste streams into a high-performance carbon adsorbent that can reduce industrial emissions.

Circular and Cost-Effective

The researchers highlighted that the production cost of this material is remarkably low, thanks to the availability and affordability of its raw ingredients — coffee waste and post-consumer plastic.

Professor Chaouki Ghenai, co-inventor and expert in Sustainable and Renewable Energy at the University of Sharjah, said the invention exemplifies circular economy principles by giving waste a new life.

“Transforming spent coffee grounds and plastic waste into high-quality activated carbon delivers economic, social, and environmental benefits,” he said.
“This innovation not only prevents harmful waste from ending up in landfills but also provides a sustainable resource for carbon reduction technologies.”

Broad Industrial Applications

The patented activated carbon has diverse industrial uses, extending far beyond CO₂ capture. It can be applied in:

Water and air purification

Groundwater and wastewater treatment

Gas and solvent purification

Natural gas processing and emission control

Flue gas cleaning at waste incineration plants

Process and exhaust air filtration systems

According to the inventors, these wide-ranging applications make the material suitable for industries such as energy, steel, cement, petrochemicals, and environmental engineering, all of which are seeking cost-effective carbon reduction technologies.

Toward a Sustainable Future

The patent underscores the urgent need for sustainable carbon capture solutions, noting that CO₂ is one of the main greenhouse gases driving global warming and posing serious risks to both the planet and human health.

“There is an urgent need for effective and sustainable technologies to capture and reduce CO₂ emissions from fossil fuel combustion, industrial processes, and power generation,” the patent states.

By turning two global waste streams — coffee and plastic — into a practical, affordable carbon-capture solution, the University of Sharjah has shown that scientific innovation can transform even a humble coffee cup into a weapon against climate change.

 

The Cocoa Paradox: How Global Shocks and Dubai’s Trade Ambitions Are Reshaping a $26 Billion Industry

Posted on by Qahwa World

Dubai – Qahwa World

The global cocoa industry — long synonymous with indulgence and luxury — is undergoing a historic transformation. A sharp supply crunch, climate disruptions, and tightening regulations have exposed deep structural weaknesses in one of the world’s most beloved commodities. Yet, amid the volatility, new opportunities for diversification, innovation, and fairer value distribution are emerging — with Dubai positioning itself as a strategic bridge between producers and consumers in the new era of cocoa trade.

The Dubai Multi Commodities Centre (DMCC) has released a comprehensive report titled “The Future of Trade – Special Cocoa Edition,” part of its Agri Commodities Series. The report examines the global cocoa market’s critical challenges — from production shortages and price volatility to digital innovation, ethical sourcing, and shifting consumer demand toward wellness and sustainability. This news story is based on the key findings of the DMCC report, one of the most detailed and forward-looking analyses of the cocoa sector and Dubai’s growing role in it.

A Crisis of Supply and Unequal Returns

The global cocoa market is valued at around US$16.6 billion in 2025 and is expected to reach US$26.2 billion by 2035. However, behind this growth lies a deep imbalance. The 2023/24 crop year recorded one of the steepest production declines in decades — down 13% to 4.4 million tonnes — resulting in a deficit of nearly half a million tonnes and pushing prices to record highs. Cocoa grindings also fell by 5% to 4.8 million tonnes, according to the International Cocoa Organization (ICCO).

The roots of the crisis lie in West Africa, which produces over 60% of the world’s cocoa from Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, Nigeria, and Cameroon. Devastating outbreaks of black pod and swollen shoot disease, erratic rainfall, and ageing trees have crippled production. Ghana’s regulator has already warned that output could drop another 10% in the 2025/26 season.

“Our cocoa plantations are ageing and have suffered from years of underinvestment,” says Kwadwo Boachie-Adjei, founder of Kumbi Cocoa. “Farmers lack access to quality fertilizers and seedlings because the financial resources needed to reinvest in their communities have not been flowing back at the scale required. The cycle of low productivity and limited incomes must change.”

Despite record-high international prices, farmers in Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire still receive fixed farmgate rates set by governments — too low to cover replanting or disease control. “For every one-dollar chocolate bar, farmers receive just two cents,” notes Mauro Danilo Ribezzi, founder of the Ribezzi Group. “The economics of cocoa are fragile — people will simply walk away.”

Meanwhile, processors and brands are struggling with soaring energy, transport, and financing costs. Companies are resorting to shrinkflation and reformulation: Mars Inc. cut 10 grams from its Galaxy bar, while Nestlé dropped the word “chocolate” from some UK products that now fall below the 20% cocoa-content threshold.

Although chocolate still dominates around 85% of cocoa demand, consumer preferences are shifting toward functional, ethical, and health-oriented products. The premium chocolate market is projected to grow from US$31.9 billion in 2024 to US$40.6 billion by 2030, while demand for raw cacao — marketed as a superfood rich in antioxidants — is forecast to surge from US$14.3 billion in 2024 to US$23.6 billion by 2033. Cocoa butter, a staple in cosmetics and pharmaceuticals, is set to nearly double in value to US$9.37 billion by 2032.

At the same time, the industry faces new compliance pressures. The European Union’s Deforestation-Free Products Regulation and Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence Directive require companies to prove that their cocoa is not sourced from deforested areas and that human rights are upheld throughout supply chains. Cocoa cultivation has caused over 37% forest loss in Côte d’Ivoire’s protected areas and 13% in Ghana, making traceability and digital monitoring essential for market access and premium pricing.

Dubai: A New Global Nexus for Cocoa Trade

Amid these structural pressures, Dubai is emerging as a stabilizing force in global commodity flows. Leveraging its strategic location between Africa, Asia, and Europe, the UAE has built a resilient trade ecosystem capable of absorbing global shocks. According to the DMCC report, the UAE imported US$17.3 million worth of cocoa beans in 2023 — 96% of which came from Côte d’Ivoire — and exported US$16.4 million, mainly to Iran, Malaysia, and Saudi Arabia. While modest compared to European hubs, these figures highlight Dubai’s growing relevance in both upstream and downstream cocoa trade.

Building on the success of the DMCC Coffee Centre and Tea Centre, Dubai is now planning to launch a DMCC Cacao Centre that will offer integrated services including grading, blending, storage, branding, and structured trade finance — all under one roof. The initiative aims to transform Dubai into a full-service hub for cocoa trade and value addition in the Middle East.

“The DMCC provides African producers with what they have long lacked — direct access to markets and capital,” says Boachie-Adjei.

“The beauty of the DMCC ecosystem,” adds Ribezzi, “is that we don’t just operate as traders but as facilitators connecting farmers, financiers, and buyers across borders.”

The report also underscores how technology is redefining cocoa trade. Blockchain-enabled traceability ensures regulatory compliance and transparency, while mobile-first fintech platforms allow farmers to receive payments directly — cutting out intermediaries and ensuring faster, fairer compensation. Emerging models such as tokenized assets and decentralized finance (DeFi) could soon unlock new credit channels for smallholders historically excluded from the banking system.

Looking further ahead, the industry is experimenting with lab-grown cocoa to overcome climate and disease risks. Startups are cultivating cocoa cells that yield mass without farms, a concept already supported by major players such as Barry Callebaut and Japan’s Meiji. Other innovators are developing cocoa-free chocolate alternatives using ingredients like carob and upcycled fibers to reduce dependency on volatile bean supply. Meanwhile, West African research programs are advancing disease-resistant and high-yield varieties through genetic innovation and agroforestry models.

The DMCC report concludes that the future of cocoa rests on five pillars: climate-adapted farming, transparent supply chains, diversified production, financial innovation, and equitable participation. It calls for producer nations to move beyond being raw suppliers and instead become true partners in global value creation.

With its neutral trade infrastructure and forward-looking policies, Dubai is poised to redefine the cocoa economy — shifting it from a system marked by inequality and volatility to one built on sustainability, inclusivity, and shared prosperity.

Which Coffee Is Healthiest for You? Harvard University Ends the Debate

Posted on by Qahwa World

Dubai – Qahwa World 

Coffee lovers around the world have long debated the healthiest way to enjoy their daily cup. While taste and aroma often take center stage, science suggests that how you brew your coffee can make a big difference to your health. Now, researchers at Harvard University have come forward with a clear conclusion: filtered coffee is the healthiest choice for both the heart and overall well-being.

According to Harvard experts, the benefits of coffee extend far beyond the type of bean or roast — the brewing method itself plays a crucial role. Brewing coffee through a paper filter allows it to retain antioxidants and beneficial compounds, while removing natural oils known as cafestol and kahweol. These oils, when consumed regularly, may raise levels of LDL (“bad”) cholesterol. The simple act of filtering, therefore, turns an everyday habit into a heart-healthy one.

For millions of people, coffee is more than a drink — it’s a ritual. Yet, it has often been the subject of controversy. Some worry about caffeine-related side effects such as anxiety, restlessness, or poor sleep. However, researchers emphasize that the real issue isn’t coffee itself, but overconsumption and the addition of sugar, artificial syrups, and heavy cream.

When consumed in moderation, coffee offers a range of scientifically supported benefits. It is naturally rich in antioxidants, which help protect cells from damage and reduce inflammation. Regular coffee drinkers, studies suggest, may have a lower risk of developing type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular disease, and neurodegenerative disorders such as Alzheimer’s and Parkinson’s. Coffee can also boost alertness, improve focus, and enhance metabolism, making it one of nature’s most effective stimulants.

Harvard’s findings suggest that drinking three to four cups of filtered coffee per day provides an ideal balance between health benefits and caffeine intake. In contrast, unfiltered brewing methods — including French press, Turkish coffee, and espresso — allow cholesterol-raising oils to pass into the cup. Over time, this could affect heart health, particularly in individuals with elevated cholesterol levels.

To keep your daily brew on the healthy side, experts recommend a few simple habits: enjoy your coffee black or with a small amount of milk, and replace sugar or flavored syrups with natural alternatives like cinnamon or a touch of honey. These small adjustments can transform coffee from a guilty pleasure into a nourishing daily ritual.

Coffee is more than a source of energy — it’s a reflection of culture, comfort, and community. When prepared with awareness and balance, it can also be a pillar of a healthier lifestyle. As Harvard researchers note, the secret isn’t giving up coffee; it’s brewing it smarter.

Unprecedented Scientific Discovery: Coffee Reduces the Risk of Head and Neck Cancers

Posted on by Qahwa World

Dubai – Qahwa World

A new global study has revealed that drinking coffee, particularly in higher amounts, may significantly reduce the risk of developing head and neck cancers, one of the most common forms of cancer worldwide. Published in the Cancer journal by the American Cancer Society, the research represents one of the largest analyses ever conducted on this topic and offers new insights into how coffee and tea consumption affect cancer risk.

The study was carried out by an international team of researchers from the International Head and Neck Cancer Epidemiology Consortium (INHANCE), bringing together data from fourteen large-scale case-control studies conducted across Europe, North America, and Latin America. In total, the analysis included 9,548 individuals diagnosed with head and neck cancers and 15,783 individuals without cancer, making it the most comprehensive dataset of its kind. Researchers used advanced statistical models to assess associations between beverage consumption and cancer risk, taking into account known influencing factors such as age, smoking, alcohol intake, diet, and education level.

According to the results, people who drank more than four cups of caffeinated coffee per day had a 17 percent lower risk of developing any form of head and neck cancer compared to non-coffee drinkers. The protective effect was even stronger for certain cancers: the risk of oral cavity cancer was 30 percent lower, and the risk of oropharyngeal cancer—the type that develops in the area behind the mouth—was 22 percent lower among heavy coffee drinkers. The study also found that drinking three to four cups of coffee daily was associated with a 41 percent reduction in hypopharyngeal cancer, which affects the lower part of the throat. These findings suggest a clear dose-response relationship, where higher coffee consumption corresponds to a lower likelihood of developing these cancers.

Interestingly, the study also observed that decaffeinated coffee showed similar protective trends, particularly against oral cavity cancer. Individuals who consumed even small amounts of decaffeinated coffee had a significantly reduced risk, suggesting that the beneficial compounds in coffee are not limited to caffeine. Researchers highlighted that coffee contains a complex mix of bioactive substances, including polyphenols, chlorogenic acids, trigonelline, cafestol, and kahweol—compounds that have demonstrated antioxidant and anti-inflammatory properties known to inhibit cancer cell growth and reduce oxidative stress.

Tea, on the other hand, showed a more complex relationship. Moderate tea consumption of up to one cup per day was linked to a small protective effect, reducing overall head and neck cancer risk by around 9 percent and hypopharyngeal cancer risk by 27 percent. However, participants who drank more than one cup of tea daily appeared to have a 38 percent higher risk of developing laryngeal cancer, which affects the voice box. The authors of the study suggested that this could be due to tea’s content of theophylline, a compound known to relax the lower esophageal sphincter and potentially increase acid reflux, a condition associated with a higher risk of laryngeal cancer.

Head and neck cancer encompasses malignancies of the oral cavity, oropharynx, hypopharynx, and larynx, and remains a serious global health concern. According to global cancer statistics, these cancers accounted for approximately 745,000 new cases and 364,000 deaths in 2020. Although incidence rates have declined in some high-income countries, oropharyngeal cancers have increased, largely linked to human papillomavirus (HPV) infections. Meanwhile, low- and middle-income nations continue to bear a growing burden due to limited access to early diagnosis and treatment. Given this backdrop, the discovery of potential protective lifestyle factors such as coffee consumption could have important implications for prevention efforts worldwide.

The research team, led by Dr. Yuan-Chin Amy Lee from the University of Utah School of Medicine and the Huntsman Cancer Institute, emphasized that while the study establishes strong associations, it does not prove direct causation. The findings are observational and should be interpreted with caution, as factors such as the type of coffee, brewing method, and geographic differences in beverage habits could influence results. Nonetheless, the consistency of the associations across multiple populations and cancer subsites strengthens the evidence that coffee may play a beneficial role in reducing cancer risk.

The authors also pointed out that coffee’s health benefits are not limited to its caffeine content. Laboratory studies have shown that the natural compounds found in both caffeinated and decaffeinated coffee can inhibit cancer cell proliferation, trigger apoptosis (cell death), and reduce inflammation, all of which are key mechanisms in preventing tumor growth. They noted that these effects were evident regardless of participants’ age, gender, or smoking and drinking habits. Even after controlling for major risk factors such as tobacco and alcohol use—both of which are strongly linked to head and neck cancers—the protective pattern of coffee consumption remained.

However, the researchers called for more in-depth investigations to understand regional differences, especially in countries where coffee and tea types and preparation methods vary significantly. For instance, green tea, widely consumed in Asia, has shown different biological properties compared to black tea, which is more common in Europe and North America. The oxidation process used in black tea production lowers its catechin content, potentially diminishing its antioxidant capacity. Future studies, they added, should explore these nuances and include populations from underrepresented regions such as South America, Africa, and Asia.

Despite the need for further research, the study adds substantial weight to the growing body of scientific evidence suggesting that coffee, when consumed in moderation or more, may be one of the most health-promoting beverages available. Its combination of antioxidants, polyphenols, and other natural compounds appears to contribute not only to energy and alertness but also to long-term health protection. For millions of coffee drinkers around the world, the morning ritual of brewing a cup may now carry even greater significance—offering comfort, focus, and perhaps a measure of protection against one of the world’s most challenging diseases.

Historic Drop in Certified Coffee Stocks Threatens Global Market Stability

Posted on by Qahwa World

Dubai – Qahwa World

The global coffee market is entering a period of heightened uncertainty as certified coffee stocks fall to their lowest level in years, signaling tightening supply chains and growing pressure on prices. According to the International Coffee Organization’s (ICO) September 2025 Coffee Market Report, both Arabica and Robusta certified inventories saw steep declines, raising alarm among traders and producers about the sustainability of global coffee flows.

The ICO reported that certified Arabica stocks in the United States dropped by 19.3%, falling to 0.66 million 60-kg bags, while certified Robusta stocks in London declined by 4.3% to 1.08 million bags. The organization described these figures as a “clear indicator of tightening supply,” warning that if this trend continues, it could lead to further market volatility and stronger upward pressure on coffee prices into 2026.

The decline in certified stocks comes at a time when global coffee prices are already at a two-year high. The ICO Composite Indicator Price (I-CIP) averaged 324.62 US cents per pound in September — up 9.3% from August and 25.4% year-on-year. This sustained rally reflects a combination of supply shortages, export delays, and speculative momentum, according to the report. Analysts also note that the depletion of certified stocks is a major driver behind the surge, as roasters and traders draw down existing inventories to meet ongoing demand.

In Brazil, the world’s largest coffee producer and exporter, the situation remains complex. Despite a healthy harvest, export performance continues to weaken, with the Brazilian Coffee Exporters Council (Cecafé) reporting a tenth consecutive monthly decline. Shipments have been slowed by logistical congestion at the Port of Santos and delayed customs procedures, resulting in slower replenishment of certified stocks. Much of the crop, although harvested, remains stored domestically awaiting transport — a factor that continues to strain global availability.

Colombia, the world’s top producer of washed Arabica, is also struggling with weather disruptions in key coffee-growing regions and infrastructure setbacks that have limited its export capacity. Meanwhile, Vietnam, the largest Robusta supplier, has maintained stable production but faces supply chain bottlenecks that delay shipments to major consuming markets, particularly Europe and North America.

The ICO emphasized that these combined factors have created a fragile equilibrium in which global coffee demand remains resilient, but the flow of physical supply is insufficient to keep inventories stable. “The rate of certified stock depletion is now nearing levels not seen since 2021,” the report warned, adding that the balance between consumption and production is increasingly difficult to maintain amid logistical and policy-related challenges.

Trade policies are adding further complications. The United States’ 50% import tariff on coffee, still in place as of September 2025, continues to weigh heavily on trade volumes. Many importers have avoided purchasing new shipments at elevated costs, instead relying on existing certified reserves. This has accelerated the drawdown of available stock, pushing certified inventories closer to critical thresholds.

At the same time, monetary policy decisions have influenced speculative activity across commodity markets. The Federal Reserve’s recent 25-basis-point rate cut — its first since 2024 — triggered renewed investor interest in coffee futures, pushing prices even higher. The report noted that this speculative demand has intensified the pressure on physical stocks, as traders anticipate continued price gains and hedge against potential shortages.

The ICO also pointed to regulatory uncertainty in Europe as a factor contributing to the decline in certified inventories. Exporters are recalibrating their shipment schedules due to the forthcoming EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR), which mandates traceability and geolocation data for coffee imports. While the European Commission has signaled a potential one-year delay in enforcement, many traders are opting to postpone shipments until compliance frameworks are clarified, further limiting short-term supply availability.

Market analysts caution that the combination of depleted stocks, policy delays, and persistent trade restrictions could lead to supply shortages in early 2026 if current trends persist. “The market is walking a fine line,” one analyst cited by the ICO noted. “With certified inventories at record lows, even minor disruptions — whether from weather, logistics, or policy shifts — could have an outsized impact on prices.”

This tightening supply scenario has already been reflected in the futures markets. ICE Arabica prices in New York rose by 11.5% in September, averaging 366.31 US cents per pound, while ICE Robusta prices in London climbed 8.9% to 197.56 US cents per pound. The price differential between the two markets widened by 14.7% to 168.75 US cents per pound, the highest level recorded in 2025. The ICO said the widening gap highlights uneven stock conditions and structural imbalances between Arabica and Robusta markets.

Furthermore, intra-day price volatility increased to 13.8%, compared to 10.6% in August, underscoring how thin inventories amplify market sensitivity to short-term developments. The report noted that low stock levels make the market more reactive to speculative trading, currency fluctuations, and export data releases.

Despite these challenges, some optimism remains tied to upcoming harvests in Central America and East Africa, which could provide temporary relief to global supplies. However, the ICO cautioned that recovery will likely be slow, as high fertilizer and labor costs continue to limit farm investment and productivity gains across several producing countries.

Ultimately, the ICO concluded that the historic decline in certified coffee stocks represents more than a temporary fluctuation — it reflects a deep structural imbalance in the global coffee economy. Persistent trade barriers, logistical delays, and delayed regulatory decisions have combined to restrict availability at a time when global demand remains robust. The report warned that unless export performance and stock replenishment improve by early 2026, the market could face an extended period of high prices and intensified volatility.

As the global coffee sector navigates this critical juncture, the ICO urged stakeholders — from producers to importers — to focus on efficient supply chain management, sustainable farming practices, and regulatory coordination to restore stability to the market. Without such measures, the world’s coffee supply chain risks remaining on edge well into the coming year.

Global Coffee Market Reacts to Tariffs, Rate Cuts, and EU Regulation Uncertainty

Posted on by Qahwa World

Dubai – Qahwa World

The global coffee market navigated a turbulent September as trade tensions, monetary policy shifts, and regulatory uncertainty reshaped investor sentiment and price dynamics. According to the International Coffee Organization’s (ICO) latest Coffee Market Report for September 2025, the sector was influenced by a combination of U.S. tariff policy, an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, and developments surrounding the European Union’s Deforestation Regulation (EUDR). Together, these factors created a complex environment of both optimism and caution across producing and consuming regions.

The month began with heightened uncertainty following the decision by the United States to maintain its 50% import tariff on coffee. This came despite a presidential executive order, issued on 8 September, that excluded several commodities from the existing tariff regime. Coffee, however, remained absent from the exemption list, as it is not considered a product that can be sufficiently produced within the U.S. to meet domestic demand. The policy stance kept traders and importers on edge, particularly in light of already tight global supplies and rising domestic roasting costs.

The ICO report noted that the continued imposition of tariffs has dampened export momentum from major producing countries, particularly Brazil, which remains the world’s largest coffee supplier. Exporters faced not only the direct cost of tariffs but also indirect consequences such as higher insurance premiums and delayed shipments. The United States, typically the second-largest destination for Brazilian coffee after Germany, saw imports fall sharply in August — down 46% year-on-year and 26% month-on-month, according to data from Cecafé.

However, as the month progressed, a diplomatic thaw between Washington and Brasília offered a glimmer of optimism. Meetings between senior officials from both countries, held on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly in New York, were interpreted by market analysts as a potential first step toward resolving trade tensions. Though no formal changes were announced, the dialogue provided reassurance to traders that punitive tariffs might be reviewed later in the year, especially if inflationary pressure continues to ease in the United States.

Adding to the month’s market developments, the U.S. Federal Reserve cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points on 17 September — its first such move since early 2024. The decision aimed to support economic growth amid signs of slowing consumer spending and lower manufacturing output. For coffee traders, the rate cut brought mixed implications. On one hand, cheaper borrowing encouraged speculative activity in commodity markets, which helped lift prices. On the other, the stronger U.S. dollar that followed the announcement increased costs for buyers using other currencies, especially in emerging markets.

The ICO observed that the daily volatility of the ICO Composite Indicator Price (I-CIP) rose to 13.8% in September, up from 11% the previous month, partly driven by the interplay of monetary and trade factors. The organization emphasized that such fluctuations reflect not only speculation but also genuine uncertainty about the future of trade flows and regulatory frameworks that govern the industry.

In Europe, a different kind of uncertainty unfolded. The European Commissioner for Environment, Oceans, and Fisheries, responsible for overseeing the Deforestation Regulation (EUDR), expressed concern over the readiness of the EU’s technical system for tracing commodities such as coffee, cocoa, and palm oil. The Commissioner admitted that the digital platform designed to monitor compliance might not be fully operational in time for the regulation’s official start date in January 2026. As a result, Brussels is now considering a one-year postponement of the EUDR’s implementation.

This potential delay was met with relief from coffee-producing nations and exporters, many of whom have voiced apprehension over the costs and logistical burdens of compliance. The regulation, adopted in 2023, requires companies importing into the EU to prove that their products do not contribute to deforestation or forest degradation. For coffee, that means exporters must provide precise geolocation data for every farm and ensure traceability across the supply chain. While the regulation aims to promote sustainable trade, several producing countries, including Ethiopia, Uganda, and Honduras, have warned that smaller farmers could be excluded from the European market if compliance deadlines remain too strict.

Market participants see the proposed delay as a temporary reprieve. “It gives exporters and cooperatives valuable time to adjust and strengthen traceability systems,” the ICO noted. However, the organization also cautioned that postponement does not remove the long-term challenge of compliance. Producers who fail to invest in sustainable certification and farm-level data systems risk losing access to the world’s most regulated and high-value coffee market.

By the end of September, the combined effects of tariffs, monetary easing, and policy uncertainty continued to shape market sentiment. The ICO Composite Indicator Price averaged 324.62 US cents per pound, up 9.3% from August, marking the highest level in two years. Yet, behind the price surge lay diverging regional realities: while exporters in Vietnam and Colombia benefited from strong demand and competitive logistics, producers in Brazil and Central America faced rising export costs and political tension around trade access.

The report concluded that these intersecting economic and regulatory developments have pushed the coffee industry into a phase of structural adaptation. With monetary policy softening in the United States, trade negotiations cautiously reopening, and the EU potentially adjusting its sustainability timeline, the final quarter of 2025 is expected to test the industry’s resilience. Analysts agree that while prices may remain high in the short term, long-term stability will depend on how swiftly producers, traders, and regulators can align under a more predictable and sustainable framework.

As the ICO noted, the coffee market of late 2025 is no longer defined solely by supply and demand but by the policies, regulations, and economic instruments that govern it. The cup of coffee on the global stage has never been more entangled with diplomacy, finance, and environmental accountability.

Global Coffee Prices Surge to 2-Year High

Posted on by Qahwa World

Dubai – Qahwa World

The global coffee market witnessed a significant price surge in September 2025, marking one of the strongest monthly performances in recent years. According to the latest Coffee Market Report issued by the International Coffee Organization (ICO), the ICO Composite Indicator Price (I-CIP) averaged 324.62 US cents per pound, representing a 9.3% increase compared to August 2025 and a striking 25.4% rise year-on-year. The report reveals that while prices rose across all coffee groups, tightening certified stocks and persistent trade uncertainties continue to define the market’s volatile landscape.

The ICO noted that Arabica varieties led the monthly increase, with Colombian Milds climbing 10.1% to 403.77 US cents/lb, Other Milds advancing 9.3% to 400.21 US cents/lb, and Brazilian Naturals gaining 11.3% to 374.91 US cents/lb. Robusta, meanwhile, registered a more moderate yet notable 5.9% increase to 210.85 US cents/lb. The rise was mirrored on both major futures exchanges, with New York ICE prices up 11.5% to 366.31 US cents/lb, and London ICE prices increasing by 8.9% to 197.56 US cents/lb. The I-CIP fluctuated between 298.14 and 360.74 US cents/lb during the month, maintaining a median value of 323.44.

The report attributes much of September’s price escalation to several interconnected macroeconomic and policy-related developments that placed upward pressure on the market during the first half of the month. Among these, concerns over the long-term supply of coffee to the United States stood out, especially given the continued uncertainty surrounding import tariffs. Although on 8 September the U.S. administration issued an executive order revising tariffs for “aligned partners” with established trade agreements, coffee remained excluded from the list. The commodity continues to face a 50% import tariff imposed earlier in the year, as it is not yet categorized among products that the U.S. cannot sufficiently produce domestically. This policy has led to sustained apprehension among traders and exporters, particularly as U.S. certified Arabica stocks continue to decline.

The ICO underlined that certified stocks—used as a short-term substitute for coffee imports—are shrinking at an alarming rate, reinforcing market tightness. U.S. certified stocks of Arabica fell 19.3% in September to 0.66 million 60-kilogram bags, while London-certified Robusta stocks decreased 4.3% to 1.08 million bags. These drawdowns, the report states, indicate that the market is “starting to feel the squeeze,” signaling a bullish outlook for prices if replenishment remains weak.

However, the latter half of September brought developments that introduced downward pressure and tempered speculative enthusiasm. On 15 and 17 September, the ICE Futures U.S. exchange raised margin requirements for Arabica contracts twice in a single week. Higher margin requirements force investors to deposit more capital with brokers to cover increased credit risk, thus raising borrowing costs for both new and existing positions. The ICO explained that such moves can reduce liquidity and limit speculative demand, potentially stabilizing prices in overheated markets.

At the same time, discussions at the United Nations General Assembly between U.S. and Brazilian officials provided a momentary boost to market optimism. As the world’s largest coffee producer and the largest destination market sought to improve bilateral trade relations, investors interpreted the talks as a signal that tariff détente might eventually follow. Brazil’s exports have been under severe strain, declining for ten consecutive months due to both cyclical production factors and logistical issues at the port of Santos.

On the monetary front, the U.S. Federal Reserve’s 25-basis-point interest rate cut on 17 September had a nuanced impact. While the policy was intended to lower borrowing costs across the economy, it indirectly affected coffee prices by making speculative trading less expensive. The ICO noted that cheaper credit may have helped sustain trading volumes, adding volatility to a market already under pressure from tightening supplies.

The European Union also entered the spotlight in September after the EU Commissioner for Environment, Water Resilience and a Competitive Circular Economy raised concerns over the readiness of the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) IT system. The Commissioner indicated that the system might not be able to handle the expected transaction volume, suggesting a possible one-year extension before enforcement begins. The EUDR, which aims to ensure that coffee and other commodities imported into the EU are deforestation-free, has been a major topic of concern among exporters since its adoption, and any delay could temporarily ease compliance-related pressures on coffee-producing nations.

Despite these counterbalancing developments, overall volatility continued to rise. The ICO reported that intra-day volatility of the I-CIP increased by 2.8 percentage points compared to August, averaging 13.8% in September. By category, Colombian Milds and Other Milds showed volatility of 14.0% and 13.7%, respectively, Brazilian Naturals 14.7%, and Robustas 15.0%. At the futures level, New York volatility stood at 15.2%, while London measured 16.2%, reflecting a minor uptick in speculative activity.

Price differentials also widened notably. The Colombian Milds–Other Milds differential expanded from 0.41 to 3.56 US cents/lb, while the Colombian Milds–Robustas differential rose 15.1% to 192.92 US cents/lb. The arbitrage between the London and New York markets, a key indicator of the spread between Arabica and Robusta, widened by 14.7% to 168.75 US cents/lb, the highest level of the year.

Overall, the ICO described September as a month defined by tightening supplies, speculative activity, and geopolitical uncertainty. The consistent decline in certified stocks, combined with unresolved tariff tensions and potential EUDR delays, continues to reinforce a bullish sentiment across the market. As the fourth quarter of 2025 begins, analysts expect coffee prices to remain elevated, with volatility likely to persist until structural issues—such as logistics bottlenecks, regulatory clarity, and weather-related production concerns—are addressed.

In summary, the ICO’s latest data depict a coffee market under strain but also opportunity. Prices are buoyed by constrained supply and investor sentiment, while trade policies and financial dynamics continue to influence short-term movements. With the I-CIP climbing above 320 US cents/lb for the first time in over two years and certified stocks hitting new lows, September 2025 may well be remembered as a turning point in the evolving balance between global coffee supply and demand.

Brazil Set to Overtake Vietnam as the World’s Largest Robusta Coffee Producer

Posted on by Qahwa World

Dubai – Qahwa World

Brazil is on track to surpass Vietnam as the world’s leading producer of robusta coffee, according to a new report by Dutch bank Rabobank. The report highlights Brazil’s growing advantage due to robusta’s resilience to heat, drought, and disease — key traits as climate change increasingly threatens arabica production.

Rabobank estimates Brazil’s robusta output will reach 24.7 million 60-kg bags in 2025, up from 19 million bags in 2020. Meanwhile, Vietnam is projected to produce around 30 million bags in 2025/26, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

Unlike arabica, which offers a milder flavor and is favored by premium brands such as Starbucks and Nespresso, robusta has a stronger taste and higher caffeine content. It is mainly used in instant coffee, espresso blends, and iced beverages.

Over the past five decades, temperatures in Brazil’s key coffee regions have risen by 1.3 to 1.6°C, while rainfall has decreased by up to 211 millimeters. To adapt, Brazilian farmers have increasingly relied on irrigation — now covering 71% of robusta farms — with this figure projected to reach 363,800 hectares by 2040.

Although the initial investment in robusta plantations is high (around $15,700 per hectare), its productivity is 170% higher per hectare than arabica, enabling cost recovery in about four years, Rabobank said.

The report also noted that Brazil has about 28 million hectares of degraded pastureland suitable for deforestation-free agricultural expansion, creating significant room for robusta growth.

Additionally, the EU’s exemption of instant coffee from deforestation regulations could boost global demand for robusta-based products, further accelerating Brazil’s rise in production.

August Export and Market Update

In August 2025, Brazil exported 3.1 million bags (60kg) of coffee — down 17.5% year-on-year (YOY) but up 14.3% compared to July, according to data from Cecafé. Despite the monthly recovery, exporters continue to face difficulties due to adverse weather conditions affecting the arabica harvest and the 50% U.S. tariff introduced in August. Moreover, even with a good harvest pace, coffee has been taking longer to reach exporters this year.

Exports to the United States dropped 46% YOY and 26% from July, totaling 301,000 bags. Despite the sharp decline, the U.S. remained Brazil’s second-largest destination, behind Germany, and continues to be the world’s top coffee importer in 2025.

The barter ratio — the amount of coffee needed to purchase one metric ton of fertilizer — improved significantly in August. Only 1.2 bags (60kg) were required to buy one ton of fertilizer (blend 20-05-20), down 29% from August 2024 (1.7 bags) and 26% from July (1.6 bags). The improvement was driven by rising coffee prices and falling fertilizer prices, particularly for urea, boosting producer profitability.

After several months of decline, coffee prices rebounded sharply in August, with arabica up 31% and conilon (robusta) up 32%. The price rally was fueled by slower Brazilian exports and low global inventories, while the new U.S. tariffs added further volatility. The move has prompted U.S. roasters to seek alternative supply sources. In the short term, the U.S. industry is expected to rely on existing inventories while awaiting potential tariff renegotiations. One immediate workaround has been the use of bonded warehouses, which allow coffee storage without immediate tariff payments. Since the tariff announcement on July 9, certified stocks in New York have fallen by 157,000 bags.

The EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) has also influenced trade flows. Anticipating compliance challenges, European buyers increased imports early in 2024, and a similar pattern is expected in the second half of 2025. Data shows that European coffee inventories have been building in recent months.

Weather conditions in August were seasonally dry, which supported the near-complete harvest. However, frost affected some arabica-producing regions, particularly in Cerrado Mineiro, where local cooperatives estimate potential losses of around 412,000 bags for the 2026 crop. While this raises concerns for the next harvest, analysts say the 2026/27 arabica and conilon cycle remains positive overall. In the coming weeks, market attention will turn to rainfall and flowering, as any threat to crop potential could further support coffee price gains.

Worth $58.5 Billion: US Coffee Market Slows Under Cost Pressures

Posted on by Qahwa World

Dubai – Qahwa World

The US branded coffee shop industry, one of the largest in the world, is showing signs of strain as growth slows amid rising costs and a tough economic climate. According to new industry research, the market is now worth around $58.5 billion, achieving 6.6% annual sales growth — a dip from last year’s 7%.

Despite the cooling pace, the market continues to expand in size and scale. Net outlet growth reached 4.2% in 2025, bringing the total to more than 45,200 stores across 588 brands, although this marks a slowdown from the 5.1% growth recorded in 2024.

Expansion Meets Resistance

Big players are still adding stores. Starbucks, Dunkin’, Dutch Bros, and 7 Brew each expanded by more than 100 outlets over the past year. Yet, broader growth has been curbed by record-high green coffee costs, persistent inflation, and a 50% tariff on Brazilian imports, which together create unprecedented pressure on operators.

Drive-thru coffee chains are leading the charge. Dutch Bros surpassed 1,000 locations, while Arkansas-based 7 Brew posted the fastest expansion rate in the sector. Black Rock Coffee Bar, following its $294 million IPO in September 2025, is also preparing for nationwide growth.

Adding to the competitive landscape, China’s Luckin Coffee and Cotti Coffee have entered the US market. At the same time, more than 50 independent café businesses grew to five or more outlets, officially stepping into the branded chain category.

Consumers Pay More, Confidence Drops

Sales figures were propped up by higher menu prices. Over the last year, the average cost of a 16oz latte, cappuccino, or filter coffee rose by 3%, while iced coffee went up by nearly 5%.

Although more than half of US industry leaders reported positive sales, fewer than a third described overall trading conditions as favorable — down sharply from 2024. Just 20% of executives expect conditions to improve in the coming year, and more than one-third now predict that coffee shop sales will lag behind US GDP growth.

Non-Dairy Options Go Mainstream

One of the most notable shifts in consumer trends has been the removal of surcharges for plant-based milks. Eighteen of the 20 largest coffee chains — including Starbucks, Dunkin’, and Dutch Bros — now serve oat, almond, and other dairy alternatives without extra charges.

Still, nearly two-thirds of industry leaders believe that surcharges remain justified due to higher costs, and more than half of customers indicated they would pay extra for their preferred alternative milk. Almond milk continues to dominate demand.

Outlook to 2030: Resilience and Adaptation

Even with mounting headwinds, the sector shows long-term resilience. Market forecasts project that the US branded coffee shop industry will exceed $63 billion within a year and reach $82.4 billion by 2030, supported by outlet growth to more than 57,700 stores nationwide.

Industry experts say growth will increasingly depend on portfolio adjustments and new strategies to meet evolving customer expectations in a challenging economy.

Health Differences Between Hot, Cold, and Iced Coffee

Posted on by Qahwa World

Dubai – Qahwa World

A recent study, drawing on data from Free Well Health and scientific research published in the journal Foods (Thomas Jefferson University – 2020), revealed clear differences between hot, cold, and iced coffee in terms of health value, flavor profile, and caffeine levels.

The study noted that all three types contain important antioxidants, but choosing the most suitable one depends on individual factors such as caffeine tolerance, preparation method, and additives like sugar and milk, which can increase calorie content and turn coffee into something closer to a liquid dessert.

Acidity and Nutritional Value

The research showed that cold brew coffee is slightly less acidic than hot brew at the same roast level, but the difference did not exceed 0.2 to 0.34 pH units. Darker roasts had the most significant effect in reducing acidity, making them a better choice for those sensitive to acids.

Hot coffee was also found to be richer in antioxidants, with levels remaining stable even with darker roasts. In contrast, antioxidant capacity in cold brew decreased as roast levels darkened. The study also revealed that hot coffee contained higher total dissolved solids (TDS), giving it a fuller body and more pronounced flavors, while cold brew offered a smoother texture and lower acidity, making it gentler on the stomach and teeth. Iced coffee, meanwhile, is essentially hot coffee that has been cooled and served with ice, offering refreshment without major changes in nutritional value.

Caffeine content remained similar across all three types when brewed in the same proportions, with averages of about 205 mg in a large cold brew compared to roughly 165 mg in iced coffee, while hot coffee was closer to the iced version. This indicates that cup size and coffee-to-water ratio play a bigger role in caffeine strength than the brewing method itself.

What Does This Mean for Coffee Lovers?

For those who want less acidity: A medium or dark roast is the best option, with cold brew providing a slightly lower acidity than hot.

For those focused on antioxidants: Hot brewing remains more consistent across roast levels.

For those seeking smoothness and mildness: Cold brew delivers a softer texture and lower acidity but is generally less concentrated.

For those worried about caffeine: There’s no major difference between hot and cold brews; cup size and ratio matter more.

In conclusion: The main differences among hot, cold, and iced coffee lie in acidity, antioxidant content, and texture, while caffeine remains largely unchanged — giving consumers the freedom to choose based on taste preference and health needs.