Author: Qahwa World

Lablibell Crowned UAE Lavazza Barista Champion

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Dubai – Qahwa World

Lablibell has been crowned the UAE Lavazza Barista Champion for this year, achieving a well-deserved victory that qualifies her to represent the nation at the Lavazza World Barista Championships in Italy in February 2026.

The finals were held on Thursday, December 11th, at the Grosvenor House Hotel in Dubai Marina, where the competition showcased the talent and passion of the nation’s top baristas.

Lablibell impressed the judges with her signature drink titled “Beyond Times,” inspired by her professional journey and continuous development in the art of coffee preparation. The champion used the distinguished Lavazza Kafa Forest Beans as the base for her espresso, presenting a winning cup that combined heritage, passion, and high skill.

The champion expressed her delight and deep gratitude to everyone who contributed to supporting her throughout the intense competition journey. Lablibell affirmed that the road to the title was filled with challenges and learning, which only deepened her passion for the craft she loves. She also commended the strong spirit of competition among all participants, appreciating their creativity and commitment.

This victory is the culmination of significant effort. Lablibell extended her thanks to everyone who assisted her in training and refining her skills, highlighting the support received from the local coffee community and the competition organizers.

Global Coffee Market: Collapsing Inventories and a Fragile Price Truce

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Dubai – Qahwa World

The global coffee market is currently resting in a precarious calm, according to the International Coffee Organization’s (ICO) November 2025 Market Report. Despite major geopolitical and climatic events, the ICO Composite Indicator Price (I-CIP) showed only a marginal rise of 1.2%, averaging 330.44 US cents/lb.

This unexpected stability is not a sign of market health, but rather the result of a dramatic “offsetting effect” between two powerful, opposing forces: a historical US decision to soften tariffs on Brazilian coffee imports (a bearish signal), and devastating floods that struck Vietnam’s Central Highlands (a bullish factor).

  • The Damp Squib of US Tariff Relief

The most significant political event of the month was the US administration’s move to phase out the additional 40% tariff previously imposed on Brazilian coffee imports. This action should have triggered a sharp price correction downward, given Brazil’s status as the world’s largest producer.

The Professional Read: The market reaction was surprisingly muted. The I-CIP did dip to its monthly low (320.39 cents/lb) following the announcement, but the effect dissipated within three days. Analysts concur that the market had “priced in” the removal of the tariffs beforehand, drastically reducing the impact.

Compounding the lack of immediate bearish pressure, Brazil’s export performance remains subdued. Exports of Brazilian Naturals declined by 8.2% in October, marking the eighth consecutive month of negative growth for this key group, highlighting underlying challenges linked to the Arabica production cycle and not just trade barriers.

  • Vietnam’s Catastrophe: The Unlikely Price Stabilizer

As the US news failed to exert sustained downward pressure, a major climatic shock in Asia provided the necessary counter-balance. Severe flooding hit Vietnam’s Central Highlands, the global nucleus for Robusta coffee production.

• Destruction Estimates: Initial reports from Dak Lak indicated that an estimated 10% to 15% of the 2025/26 coffee crop, which was already harvested and undergoing the drying process, was significantly damaged.
• Price Resilience: This dire news provided crucial support, preventing Robusta coffee prices from sliding (they contracted only a negligible 0.1%). Furthermore, the supply concerns emanating from Asia helped push all Arabica groups (including Brazilian Naturals and Colombian Milds) higher, with increases ranging from 1.4% to 1.8%, contributing strongly to the overall I-CIP stability.

  • The Red Flag: Global Inventory Collapse

The most alarming data point in the ICO report is the state of exchange-certified stocks, which are rapidly depleting and indicate a severe structural vulnerability in the global supply chain.

• Robusta Stocks Crash: Certified Robusta coffee stocks at the London exchange plunged by a dramatic 28.3% in November, settling at a precarious 0.73 million bags.
• Arabica Drawdown: Arabica stocks in New York also drew down by 5.9%.

This inventory collapse means the market is quickly losing its buffer capacity. It is becoming almost entirely reliant on continuous, smooth flows of new harvests, making it exceptionally sensitive to any disruptions (like the future fallout from the Vietnam floods) and highly susceptible to sharp, upward price spikes.

  • Shifting Tides: The Decline of Latin American Dominance

While total global green coffee exports saw a slight rise of 1.9% in October 2025, the geographical distribution reveals a critical strategic shift.

• South America Retreats: Exports from South America (driven mainly by Brazil) declined by 13.0%, marking the eleventh consecutive month of negative growth for the region.
• Africa and Asia Surge: This gap was aggressively filled by other origins: Asia and Oceania exports jumped 23.9% (fueled by Vietnam), and African exports soared by 21.9% (led by Ethiopia and Uganda).
• Arabica Share Shrinks: The total share of Arabica coffee in green exports fell to 68.8% from 70.2% the previous year, underscoring the market’s increasing dependence on Robusta coffee to meet overall global demand.

  • The Bottom Line

The price stability observed in November was a fluke, a result of powerful forces cancelling each other out. The true economic background—collapsing exchange inventories and the sustained export decline from the world’s largest producer—suggests the market is in a highly precarious state of “active waiting.

The coffee sector is now dangerously exposed. Any further negative climate report or logistical disruption will likely shatter the current equilibrium, immediately unleashing a sharp, acute wave of price volatility. Buyers should prepare for potential supply shocks and the associated upward pricing pressure in the coming months.

 

Demand for Home Coffee Machines in Russia Rises by 10% in 2025

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Moscow – Qahwa World

The market for home coffee machines and brewers in Russia saw significant growth during the first nine months of 2025. The number of appliances sold increased by 10% compared to the same period in 2024, reaching approximately 1.7 million units. However, the total market value grew more modestly by 7%, totaling 25.5 billion rubles, according to data shared with “Vedomosti” by Nikolai Semenov, head of the small household appliances department at the retailer “M.video.”

This growth, which confirms Russia’s transition from a traditionally “tea” country to a “coffee” country, is attributed to the rising trend of preparing coffee at home. A representative for “Wildberries” noted that the turnover of coffee makers on their platform doubled (+107%) during the first three quarters of the current year compared to the previous year, with an average price of about 4,000 rubles per device.

The majority of sales are concentrated in budget-friendly devices, with appliances costing up to 5,000 rubles accounting for about half of all unit sales. Overall, the average price of coffee machines dropped by 13% in 2025 compared to 2024. Experts explain this shift by consumers opting for cheaper models, the increased share of sales through online marketplaces offering competitive prices, and the proliferation of various Chinese brands.

In terms of market share by brand, the Italian brand Delonghi remains the leader in terms of revenue, capturing about a third of total revenue and 15% of units sold. The mass segment is dominated by Russian brands such as Vitek, Kitfort, Lumme, and Redmond, as well as the American brand Polaris, with models typically priced up to 10,000 rubles.

By appliance type, automatic coffee machines account for about 25% of all sales. Espresso portafilter machines hold a share of 20–22%, while traditional filter coffee makers form 21–23% of the market. Capsule coffee makers maintain a stable share of about 14–15%.

It is worth noting that prices for natural coffee (beans and ground) have also risen sharply, increasing by 29.4% compared to the previous year, reaching 2030 rubles per 1 kg, according to “Izvestia.” However, this increase has not deterred consumers from continuing to consume coffee. Instead, it has encouraged many to invest in home machines as a more economical long-term alternative to purchasing beverages at coffee shops, where the prices for ready-made coffee have increased by 13–25%.

Henrique Braun Appointed CEO of The Coca-Cola Company

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Dubai – Qahwa World

Henrique Braun, currently Chief Operating Officer, is set to become the new CEO of The Coca-Cola Company, succeeding James Quincey, effective 31 March 2026.

The leadership transition comes at a critical time for the US beverage giant as it grapples with the future of its Costa Coffee business, which it is reportedly considering selling at a deep discount.

Braun, who joined Coca-Cola in 1996, will take the helm following James Quincey’s successful tenure, which began in May 2017. Quincey, who is credited with adding more than 10 billion-dollar brands to the portfolio, will transition to the role of Executive Chairman. Quincey notably oversaw the landmark $4.9 billion acquisition of UK-based Costa Coffee in 2019, marking Coca-Cola’s entry into the global coffee and hot beverage markets.

However, the investment in the 4,200-store Costa business has not met expectations. In July 2025, Quincey acknowledged to investors that the investment “is not where we wanted it to be,” leading the company to explore a potential cut-price sale since August 2025.

Reports suggest that Coca-Cola is open to bids for Costa in the region of $2 billion—nearly a 60% markdown from the original purchase price. Named parties reportedly interested in the acquisition include US private equity firm Bain Capital (which backs Gail’s), TDR Capital (owner of Asda), and Centurium Capital (majority stakeholder of Luckin Coffee).

Braun’s career at Coca-Cola has included senior roles in supply chain, business development, and marketing. His previous presidential roles include Greater China & South Korea (2013-2016), the Brazilian business unit (2016-2020), and the Latin America region (2020-2022), before serving as President for International Development and then Chief Operating Officer in January 2025.

Coca-Cola stated that Braun’s immediate priorities will include exploring new global growth opportunities and leveraging technology to enhance business performance. The Atlanta-based company, which owns brands like Sprite, Fanta, Powerade, Minute Maid, and innocent, posted $47.1 billion in revenues in 2024 and operates in over 200 countries.

Historic Costa Rican Coffee Farm “Finca La Hilda” is For Sale

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San José, Costa Rica – Qahwa World

The Vargas family in Costa Rica has announced the offering of a portion of its long-standing agricultural legacy for sale—the “Finca La Hilda” coffee farm. This estate holds a history that precedes the entry of industry giants like Starbucks into the country, according to a report published by Forbes magazine.

The magazine published a photo-illustrated report highlighting the details of this rare farm and property offered for sale in the Alajuela hills. The story of the farm dates back to 1929 when Don Clarindo Vargas began cultivating coffee, establishing a family empire known today as “Finca La Hilda.” The sale of this part of the estate comes after it cemented its reputation as a source for some of the world’s finest Arabica beans.

The historical significance of the farm lies in the fact that it was supplying coffee beans to Starbucks as early as 2001, years before the American company launched its first owned coffee farm in the region, “Hacienda Alsacia,” located just 5 kilometers away. Mariano Vargas, a fourth-generation representative of the family, considered Starbucks’ selection of the area to be an “affirmation of the work of generations” within his family.

The residential property for sale is situated at an elevation of 1,400 meters (approx. 4,600 feet) above sea level—an ideal altitude for producing complex coffee with bright acidity and notes of bergamot and chocolate.

The estate, which has a total area of 5.3 hectares (about 13 acres), includes a luxurious Mediterranean-style main house with panoramic views of San José and surrounding volcanic areas. The property is being offered in two parcels:

1.5 hectares: priced at $2.48 million.

5.3 hectares (The full property): priced at $4.98 million.

Despite the sale, “Finca La Hilda” continues to operate at full capacity, exporting 90% of its production to international brands such as Nespresso and Peet’s Coffee. The farm, which holds the Rainforest Alliance Certification, is committed to transitioning toward sustainable agriculture using fewer chemicals.

Farewell, Barista: Belarusian Network “Sound” Launches Automated ‘Fifth Wave’ Coffee Shops

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Minsk, Belarus – Qahwa World

Nikita Chakov, the founder of Belarus’s largest coffee shop chain, “Sound,” has unveiled a bold strategy of expansion and radical transformation that threatens to end the traditional role of the “barista” in favour of full automation. In an interview published by the Myfin portal, Chakov confirmed that his network currently generates monthly revenue of approximately $700,000 USD. These emphatic statements highlighted the future of the coffee industry in the country and the steps “Sound” is taking to lead this technological shift.

Chakov described the Belarusian market as “growing,” particularly in terms of coffee culture, noting that consumer awareness has significantly increased over the past decade thanks to the efforts of new coffee shops focused on product quality and training. However, he pointed out that Belarus still lags significantly behind global markets; for every 10,000 people, Belarus has about 5 coffee vending machines, compared to 60 in the United States, indicating a vast space for future consumption growth. He stressed that the fundamental and inevitable trend is total automation, which will penetrate all coffee shop formats.

Chakov attributed the strong push toward automation primarily to the continuous rise in coffee bean and labor costs, compounded by the difficulty of finding qualified employees. He presented a striking vision for the future: large sit-down coffee shops that traditionally required up to seven staff members per shift will soon operate with only one person—the administrator—who will handle cleaning, stock replenishment, and guest assistance. All other operations, including drink preparation and order taking, will be managed through apps, automatic coffee machines, and smart refrigerated displays. According to Chakov, this massive saving on labor costs will allow investors to channel more resources into elements that truly create customer value, such as comfortable interior design, high-quality furniture, and acoustic systems, thus letting the space and the guest itself create the atmosphere, rather than the barista.

Regarding pricing, Chakov projected that the price of a small cappuccino in Minsk will continue to rise, potentially reaching 9-10 Belarusian rubles soon. He argued that the current fair price should be no less than 7.5 rubles to maintain a healthy financial model with adequate staff salaries. While attributing rising prices to the green coffee raw material increasing by about 55% over the past year, he noted that automation will at least help slow down the rate of price inflation due to labor cost savings.

In the self-service business model, the “Sound” founder shared specific figures: the network sells approximately 15,000 cups of coffee daily through its self-service points. An average point generates a net profit of 800 to 1,200 rubles per month, with an overall business profitability of 25% of revenue. He emphasized the economic appeal of this model, stating that the initial investment of around $5,000 per point is fully recouped within 14–16 months, translating to an annual return of approximately 75–80%, making it far more attractive than temporary high-interest bank deposits.

In parallel with the growth in automation, the network announced its return to the large-format coffee shop segment (starting from 70 square meters), but with an evolved concept known as the “Fifth Wave.” This wave is designed to go beyond mere coffee quality, focusing on the complete emotional experience of the guest. The new concept aims to turn the coffee shop into a “third place” for the customer. A key finding revealed that 60% of coffee shop visitors are solo patrons, leading to the decision that 60% of the seating in the new “Fifth Wave” locations will be specifically designed for maximum comfort for individuals. Service will be multichannel: smart app, self-service kiosk, and possibly a barista-cashier (which may be phased out later). The new format will require an investment starting from $50,000. “Sound” plans to launch at least 10 of these Fifth Wave coffee shops in 2026.

Chakov concluded by reaffirming the long-term goal of establishing “Sound” as a global network brand and a leader in automated retail. The immediate plan to enter the Russian market through a master franchise system is viewed as the first strategic step towards achieving this international expansion.

Leon launches major restructuring plan with potential store closures

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London – Qahwa World

Leon, the UK-based food-to-go and coffee chain, has initiated a company voluntary arrangement (CVA) as it works to shut down loss-making branches and reshape the business into a more efficient and sustainable operation.

This step follows the recent move by Co-founder John Vincent, who reacquired the brand from Asda just over a month ago.

Leon reported a pre-tax loss of £8.4 million ($11.3 million) for 2024, marking the company’s ninth consecutive year in deficit.

As part of the restructuring plan, the chain may close up to 20 underperforming outlets in an effort to reduce ongoing financial pressures. The CVA allows Leon to continue operating while arranging a structured repayment plan with creditors. Although the process is less costly than other insolvency options and keeps management in control, it is expected to lead to job cuts.

The initial phase will target branches that have been consistently unprofitable. Vincent said the process should help Leon emerge as a “leaner business” with a clearer path back to its original mission and values.

Vincent’s return to leadership has already brought significant changes. Shortly after retaking ownership of the 70-store chain, he discontinued Leon’s value-driven coffee subscription programme—ended only 18 months after its relaunch, which had aimed to attract budget-conscious customers.

Leon has not recorded a profit since 2015, and although losses were reduced by more than half in the previous year, the chain still ended 2024 with a substantial deficit.

Leon was founded in 2004 by Vincent, Henry Dimbleby, and chef Allegra McEvedy to introduce healthier fast-food options to the UK high street. However, after the brand’s sale to EG Group in 2021 and later to Asda in 2023, critics argue that its nutrition-focused identity has weakened.

In October 2025, shortly before Vincent took back control, Dimbleby—formerly a government advisor on food health—publicly criticised Asda, accusing it of undermining Leon’s concept by prioritising cheaper and saltier menu items.

During Asda’s tenure, Leon also expanded its presence in supermarkets. What began in 2019 with packaged coffee and sauces has since grown into a wide range of ready meals and frozen items such as waffle fries, burgers, and chicken nuggets—an area where some critics say the brand’s health-first approach has become less visible.

Financial advisory firm Quantuma has been appointed to manage the CVA process. Leon also announced a partnership with Pret A Manger to support employees who may face redundancy, offering opportunities for redeployment within Pret’s network.

Global Alliance Invests €2 Million to Support Coffee Farmers in Kenya and Uganda

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BONN — Qahwa World

The Global Coffee Platform (GCP) has launched an unprecedented alliance with a collective €2 million investment, bringing together leading global coffee companies and the German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ). This initiative is designed to address the structural and environmental challenges facing smallholder coffee farmers in Kenya and Uganda by improving their livelihoods, bolstering their climate resilience, and ensuring the sector is prepared for new European Union regulations. The companies participating in this alliance include ECOM, JDE Peet’s, Louis Dreyfus Company, ofi, SUCDEN, Taylors of Harrogate, and Touton.

This undertaking comes at a critical time, as farmers in both nations face existential challenges: earning significantly less than a living income, which limits their capacity to invest in their farms. Estimates indicate that current coffee yields are often less than a quarter of their full potential due to factors such as old, unmaintained trees, and insufficient last-mile extension systems that fail to deliver adequate training in Good Agricultural Practices. Compounding this is the imminent threat of losing market access to major importing regions if they fail to comply with new regulations, such as the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) and the Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence Directive (CS3D)—a risk that increases the likelihood of the next generation abandoning the sector.

To tackle these systemic issues, the program, running between 2025 and 2027, focuses on piloting and expanding innovative solutions to bridge the gap in last-mile agricultural extension services. The goal is to reach an additional 18,000 farmers currently outside of existing sustainability schemes. The ambition is to achieve a 20% increase in farmer coffee yields and a 10% increase in income by the end of 2027. GCP Executive Director Annette Pensel affirmed that the support from BMZ was crucial in de-risking private sector investment, noting that this collaboration represents a significant step forward in maximizing pooled investment for the broader national coffee sectors.

The work in Uganda builds on the successful “Youth for Coffee” collective action initiative. The program will expand to establish 75 new Youth Business Units, employing 150 youths to provide vital farm services like rehabilitation, rejuvenation, and agroforestry, focusing on the rehabilitation of approximately 487,500 coffee trees. To ensure the long-term sustainability of these units, they will be linked directly to existing supply chains, establishing a future client base for their services. Correspondingly, the work in Kenya focuses on enhancing governance and market transparency. This includes training and certifying 40 new Master Trainers by the Coffee Research Institute (CRI) to be linked with cooperatives, such as the Othaya Cooperative, to train 8,000 farmers using the National Sustainability Curricula. A key intervention involves updating the price tracking tool used by the Nairobi Coffee Exchange (NCE) to increase price transparency, allowing farmers to better forecast their income and promoting more efficient cooperative practices.

Global Alliance Invests €2 Million to Support Coffee Farmers in Kenya and Uganda

A vital aspect of the investment is supporting regulatory compliance. The program is dedicated to assisting both countries in improving their preparedness for EUDR and CS3D through facilitating EUDR Taskforce convenings and sector sensitization via the Kenya and Uganda Coffee Platforms. This focus is considered crucial for securing continued access to key European markets. This alliance forms part of GCP’s Collective Action for Farmer Prosperity, leveraging the expertise of the private sector members in collaboration with the Sustainable Agricultural Supply Chains Initiative (SASI), which is funded by the BMZ and implemented by GIZ. The GCP-affiliated Country Platforms in Kenya and Uganda will lead the coordination to ensure that lessons learned feed directly into national coffee discussions, supporting each country’s Collective Action Plan for Farmer Prosperity.

Swiss Study: Coffee Reduces Sleep Duration But Enhances Its Quality

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Dubai -Qahwa World

The impact of coffee on our nightly rest has long been a fiercely debated topic in scientific circles. However, groundbreaking new research from Swiss scientists at the University of Zurich is redefining this relationship, unveiling a sophisticated and surprising adaptation mechanism employed by the human brain when faced with chronic caffeine consumption. The study, published in the Journal of Psychopharmacology, confirms a dualistic paradox: while heavy daily coffee intake slightly reduces sleep time, it simultaneously increases the depth and quality of the restorative phase.

  • Unveiling the Compensatory Mechanism

The key finding reached by the research team, led by scientist Benjamin Stucky, was a precise measurement of this paradoxical effect. Individuals with high habitual consumption—defined as four or more caffeinated beverages per day—experienced a small, specific decrease in total night sleep duration, averaging just 11 to 13 minutes per night.

Crucially, this reduction in time was counterbalanced by a significant increase in quality. Objective brain recordings, taken via Polysomnography, showed stronger activity in the Delta frequency range (the slow, high-amplitude brain waves). These Delta waves are the hallmark of the deepest, most restorative stage of non-rapid eye movement (NREM) sleep.

Scientists interpret this finding as evidence of a compensatory mechanism or homeostatic regulation in the brain. The central nervous system essentially works harder to compress the process of recovery and maximize the efficiency of the available sleep time, resulting in deeper, higher-quality rest.

  • Methodological Rigor and Robust Findings

The study achieved its high degree of certainty by moving beyond simple observational data. The researchers combined two massive datasets: genetic and behavioral information from nearly half a million participants (the UK Biobank), and objective sleep measurements from over 1,700 individuals in Switzerland.

To firmly establish a causal link, the team utilized advanced statistical techniques, including Mendelian Randomization and Causal Matching. These methods were essential for isolating the effect of caffeine from other potentially confounding lifestyle factors, lending unparalleled robustness to the conclusions.

Stucky explained that this adaptive response explains why heavy consumers did not report feeling significantly less rested, despite their slightly shorter sleep time.

  • The Cautionary Note on Sleep Debt

Despite these fascinating insights, the researchers stressed that their findings should not be misinterpreted as an endorsement for heavy consumption. While the study dispels the notion of “very detrimental consequences for sleep quality,” scientists cautioned that the increased depth could potentially reflect an “ongoing sleep debt,” meaning the body is constantly struggling to catch up. Such continuous striving for recovery might lead to strain on the nervous system over the long term.

Therefore, general health advice remains critical: experts continue to recommend limiting coffee intake to no more than three cups per day, and maintaining the optimal sleep duration of seven to nine hours for overall adult health and cognitive function.

Cocoa Prices Surge Amid Tightening Global Supply Outlook

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Dubai – Qahwa Worlf

Cocoa futures rose sharply on Wednesday, reaching their highest levels in a month. March ICE New York cocoa (CCH26) closed up +339 points (+5.76%), while March ICE London cocoa #7 (CAH26) ended the session up +239 points (+5.62%).

The rally comes as the global cocoa supply outlook tightens. On November 28, the International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) revised its 2024/25 surplus forecast downward to 49,000 MT from an earlier 142,000 MT, and reduced its production estimate to 4.69 MMT from 4.84 MMT. Similarly, Rabobank lowered its 2025/26 global cocoa surplus projection to 250,000 MT from 328,000 MT.

Declining cocoa inventories also support prices. ICE-monitored stocks in U.S. ports fell to 1,664,563 bags on Wednesday, an 8.75-month low.

Port arrivals in Ivory Coast, the world’s largest cocoa producer, remain below last year’s pace. Government figures show that from October 1 to December 7, 804,288 MT of cocoa reached ports, down 1.8% from 819,425 MT a year earlier.

Cocoa futures could receive additional support as NY cocoa will be included in the Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM) in January, potentially attracting up to $2 billion of passive fund purchases, according to Citigroup.

Weather conditions in West Africa remain generally favorable. In Ivory Coast, a combination of rain and sun is aiding tree bloom, while in Ghana, consistent rainfall is supporting pod growth ahead of the harmattan season, which could boost supply and weigh on prices.

Earlier, abundant supply expectations had pressured prices. On November 19, cocoa fell to 1.75-year lows amid expectations of a strong West African crop. Reports indicate that trees in Ivory Coast and Ghana are developing well, with favorable weather improving pod maturation.

Mondelez noted that the latest pod count in West Africa is 7% above the five-year average, significantly exceeding last year’s crop. The main crop harvest in Ivory Coast has begun, with farmers optimistic about its quality.

Political and trade developments have also influenced prices. On November 26, the European Parliament approved a 1-year delay for the EU’s deforestation regulation (EUDR), allowing continued imports of cocoa from regions with deforestation risks. Earlier, on November 14, the U.S. administration removed reciprocal tariffs on commodities including cocoa and lifted a 40% tariff on Brazilian food imports.

Weak demand remains a factor. Hershey reported disappointing chocolate sales during Halloween, which accounts for nearly 18% of annual U.S. candy sales. The Cocoa Association of Asia reported Q3 cocoa grindings fell 17% y/y to 183,413 MT, the lowest in nine years. European grindings fell 4.8% y/y to 337,353 MT, the lowest third-quarter figure in a decade. North American Q3 grindings rose 3.2% y/y to 112,784 MT, but new reporting companies may have skewed the data. Chocolate candy sales in North America declined more than 21% over 13 weeks ending September 7, per Circana.

Lower production in Nigeria is also supporting prices. The Nigerian Cocoa Association expects 2025/26 output to drop 11% y/y to 305,000 MT from 344,000 MT. September cocoa exports were unchanged y/y at 14,511 MT.

Historically, ICCO reported a record global cocoa deficit in 2023/24 of -494,000 MT, the largest in over 60 years, with production down 12.9% y/y to 4.368 MMT and stocks-to-grindings ratio at a 46-year low of 27.0%. For 2024/25, ICCO forecasts a modest surplus of 49,000 MT and a 7.4% y/y rise in global production to 4.69 MMT.

Pros and Cons of the Latest EUDR Postponement

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Dubai – Qahwa World

Fresh delays to the European Union’s deforestation rules have sparked mixed reactions across the global coffee sector. The updated timeline pushes the European Union Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) to the end of December 2026, following a second vote in the European Parliament earlier this year, where 402 members supported the extension and 250 opposed it.

The measure was originally set to take effect at the end of 2024, then shifted to 2025, and is now delayed once more. The regulation is expected to reshape the way EU-based companies source agricultural products — including coffee — by requiring full documentation of their origins and proof that production is not linked to deforestation.

  • Industry Split on the Delay

Major industry figures remain divided. Some companies had previously urged the EU to slow the rollout, arguing that the sector lacked the technical systems needed for compliance. Others, including large multinational brands, had pressed the EU not to postpone again, warning that additional delays risk weakening global efforts against forest loss.

Although the regulation focuses on European businesses, its effects will extend across the entire coffee supply chain, influencing farmers, cooperatives, exporters, and traders in producing countries.

  • Tracing Coffee Origins: A Race Against Time

The United Kingdom–based speciality roaster Pact Coffee has been one of the sector’s early adopters of detailed traceability. According to Will Corby, the company’s Director of Coffee and Social Impact, many businesses have made progress over the past year, yet readiness still varies widely.

He notes that the earlier delay occurred because infrastructure across agricultural supply chains — not just coffee — was far from complete. This year, he says, funding and preparation have improved, but pockets of the industry remain far behind.

  • Challenges for Smallholder Producers

Producers in origin countries face their own hurdles. A significant portion of smallholder farmers still lack the tools, connectivity, or financial means to carry out geomapping — a core requirement for EUDR compliance.

In Kenya, authorities launched a nationwide effort in July 2025 to map all coffee farmland. At that time, the Agriculture and Food Authority reported that only 30% of the country’s coffee-growing area — 32,688 hectares across 16 out of 33 counties — had been mapped.

Corby cautions that farmers who cannot geomap independently may become dependent on exporters who map land on their behalf. This could tie farmers to a single buyer, limiting their ability to negotiate better prices.

He stresses that farmers don’t need deep technical knowledge, but they do need access to a fair system where mapping data is transferable. That would allow them to sell to whichever exporter or roaster offers the best terms.

  • Why the Delay Matters

With the new extension, supply-chain actors gain another year to build tools, test systems, and reduce the risk of non-compliance. Corby notes that errors under the regulation could carry severe penalties, making preparation essential.

The extra time, he says, could ultimately support more ethical and responsible sourcing, provided the industry uses the period to strengthen relationships and transparency with growers.

  • Possible Early Impact Despite the Postponement

Although enforcement has been deferred, many European coffee companies were already close to meeting the original 2025 deadline. According to Corby, this means parts of the industry may still begin operating as if the rules were already active, leading to real changes on the ground in 2026.

Large roasters and exporters are investing significant resources into identifying and documenting the farms from which they source. This could accelerate traceability for tens of thousands of growers, even before EUDR officially takes effect.

Pact Coffee, which has worked exclusively with fully traceable coffees for 13 years, argues that transparency is the most effective way to ensure farmers receive fair compensation and long-term support.

East Asia’s Coffee Shop Landscape Surges as China Alone Adds 20,000 Stores in One Year

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Dubai – Qahwa World

A new edition of Project Café East Asia 2026 by World Coffee Portal reveals an exceptional year for the branded coffee chain sector across East Asia, with the region’s total number of outlets jumping 18.4% to reach 180,268 stores. The strongest momentum came from China, Thailand, Indonesia, Vietnam, and the Philippines, all of which posted double-digit expansion in store counts.

  • China Leads the Region with Record-Breaking Growth

China registered the fastest acceleration, expanding its branded coffee shop network by 31.5% over the past year to reach 87,505 outlets—nearly half of all branded cafés in East Asia and almost double the size of the U.S. market. It also became the first national market ever to add more than 20,000 net new stores within a single calendar year.

The main force behind this surge came from domestic champions Luckin Coffee and Cotti Coffee, which together contributed over 12,000 new locations, representing half of the country’s entire branded segment.

China’s competitive landscape is being shaped heavily by pricing battles, most notably the RMB 9.9 (US$1.40) rivalry between Luckin and Cotti. This emphasis on affordability has also propelled the rise of budget-forward chains such as Lucky Cup, operated by Mixue, and KCOFFEE under Yum China.

As local operators increasingly dominate, several international brands have been pushed to reconsider their strategies. A striking example is Starbucks’ agreement to sell a majority stake in its 8,000-store Chinese business to Hong Kong–based Boyu Capital in a deal valued at $4 billion.

  • China Emerges as a Global Lab for Beverage Innovation

While 80% of surveyed Chinese consumers drink hot coffee at least once a week and a quarter consume it daily, operators are aggressively expanding their cold, flavored, and fruit-infused offerings—turning China into a leading testing ground for new flavors.

Matcha, palm sugar, and coconut were rated among the most appealing additions by consumers. Luckin Coffee’s Coconut Latte, introduced in 2017, continues to dominate its sales charts. The brand is known for launching experimental drinks weekly, resulting in items like jelly lattes and cheese lattes.

KCOFFEE has taken novelty even further, releasing products such as Egg Tart Dirty Coffee, a fried-chicken-inspired latte, and even a sparkling black vinegar Americano.

  • Homegrown Chains Strengthen Positions Across East Asia

East Asia’s coffee chain ecosystem is increasingly being shaped by domestic players that emphasize local traditions, accessible pricing, and menus tailored to national tastes. According to World Coffee Portal’s consumer survey, 57% of Chinese respondents prefer homegrown chains over international brands—a trend replicated across the region.

Key examples include:

Jinji Jawa in Indonesia,

ZUS Coffee in Malaysia,

Pickup Coffee in the Philippines, and

Milano Coffee in Vietnam—

each of which added hundreds of new stores in the last year. Their rapid expansion outpaced Western competitors like Starbucks, Costa Coffee, and Dunkin’.

Thailand showed similar dynamics: Café Amazon and PunThai Coffee accounted for 80% of all new cafés opened in the country this year, highlighting the region’s increasing focus on localization, digital engagement, and culturally relevant branding.

  • Industry Leaders Expect Continued Growth

The majority of operators surveyed remain optimistic about the sector’s direction:

71% reported higher sales over the past year.

68% expect trading conditions to further improve in the next 12 months.

World Coffee Portal forecasts that East Asia will become the first region to surpass 200,000 branded coffee shops by the end of 2026. By November 2030, the regional market is projected to exceed 263,000 outlets, reflecting a five-year compound annual growth rate of 7.9%.

  • China is expected to maintain strong momentum with:

20% outlet growth in 2026, and

10.3% average annual growth over the following five years,
bringing its store count to over 142,500 outlets by 2030.

Other markets—including Cambodia, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Vietnam—are also predicted to achieve double-digit outlet expansion over the next year.

  • Expert Insight

Commenting on the findings, Jeffrey Young, Founder and CEO of Allegra Group, highlighted East Asia’s rising global influence. He described China’s addition of more than 20,000 stores in a single year as “astonishing” and emphasized that the region is poised to drive the majority of global coffee market growth in the coming decades. Young added that the entry of East Asian chains into Western markets—along with their distinctive approaches to technology and product innovation—could reshape international trends.