Ugandan Coffee Output Rises Slightly to 7.2 Million Bags in 2026

Author: Qahwa World – Nairobi
Source: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service – Report UG2026-0001
Date: May 20, 2026

Ugandan Coffee Output Rises to 7.2 Million Bags in 2026

Executive Summary

  • Ugandan coffee production for 2026/2027 is forecast at 7.2 million 60 kg bags, up from 7.1 million bags.
  • Planted area expands to 595,000 hectares, driven by land use shift from timber to coffee in Masaka region.
  • Robusta accounts for 80% of output (6.0 million bags); Arabica 20% (1.1 million bags).
  • Exports forecast at 6.8 million bags, up 1.9%, with the European Union taking 73% of total exports.
  • Domestic consumption rises slightly to 335,000 bags, supported by hospitality sector growth.
  • Fertilizer prices up 21% for a 50‑kg bag, limiting farmer uptake.
  • Government plans gradual shift from green bean exports to processed coffee (roasted and soluble) to boost value addition.

The USDA Foreign Agricultural Service office in Nairobi forecasts Ugandan coffee production for marketing year 2026/2027 at 7.2 million 60 kg bags, up from 7.1 million bags in the previous season.

The increase is driven by expansion in area under production, supported by sustained high prices in recent years.

Coffee exports in 2026/2027 are projected to rise from 6.7 million to 6.8 million bags.

Domestic consumption is forecast to increase slightly to 335,000 bags, supported by growth in the hospitality sector and a gradual rise in coffee consumption, particularly in urban areas.

FAS Nairobi forecasts planted area in 2026/2027 at 595,000 hectares, up from 590,000 hectares in 2025/2026.

This growth is driven by a gradual shift in land use from timber production to coffee, particularly in the Masaka region.

Uganda’s smallholder coffee farmers typically farm on 0.5 to 2.5 hectares of land.

Small farms dominate the sector and account for about 90% of total production, while medium and large-scale estates contribute the remaining 10%.

Robusta Dominates Production

For 2026/2027, post forecasts robusta production at 6.0 million 60 kg bags and arabica production at 1.1 million bags.

The increase reflects marginal expansion in area planted, driven by prevailing high prices.

Favorable weather conditions, increased adoption of improved agronomic practices, and the maturation of high-yielding trees planted earlier further support growth.

Robusta accounts for approximately 80% of total national production, with arabica making up the remaining 20%.

Uganda’s main coffee-growing regions are the central, eastern, and western zones, with emerging production areas in the north.

Robusta is mainly grown in the central region, although cultivation is increasingly expanding into the north due to increased investment and land availability.

Arabica is mainly cultivated in high-altitude areas of the eastern and western regions.

Table 1: Uganda Coffee Production, Supply and Distribution (1,000 60 kg bags)

Item 2024/2025 2025/2026 2026/2027
Planted Area (1,000 HA) 580 590 595
Harvested Area (1,000 HA) 570 575 580
Robusta (1,000 bags) 5,670 5,815 6,025
Arabica (1,000 bags) 1,030 1,060 1,135
Total Production (1,000 bags) 6,700 6,875 7,160
Exports (1,000 bags) 6,350 6,700 6,830
Domestic Consumption (1,000 bags) 325 330 335
Ending Stocks (1,000 bags) 269 334 329

Fertilizer Costs and Pest Challenges

Fertilizer use among Ugandan coffee farmers remains low, although farmers are starting to adopt its use.

Medium and large-scale farmers account for most fertilizer applications, while a growing number of smallholders are beginning to incorporate fertilizer into their agronomic practices.

However, high costs continue to constrain broader uptake.

Prices of commonly used nitrogen and phosphorus-based fertilizers have increased by approximately 21% for a 50‑kilogram bag, limiting affordability for farmers.

Most smallholder farmers continue to rely primarily on mechanical and traditional control methods to manage pests and diseases.

However, there is a gradual increase in the use of agrochemicals, particularly pesticides, driven by persistent and increasingly severe pest and disease pressures.

The twig borer is the most common pest, while coffee rust is the most recurrent disease.

These challenges continue to affect yields and increase production costs.

Coffee production is largely rain-fed, with rainfall generally sufficient.

Irrigation is more relevant in areas with less reliable rainfall, including parts of the north and east, but adoption remains limited due to high capital and operational costs.

Exports and Markets

Uganda exports over 98% of its coffee as green beans.

Exports in 2026/2027 are forecast at approximately 6.8 million bags, up 1.9%, driven by sustained strong global demand.

The European Union remains Uganda’s main export destination, accounting for about 73% of total exports in 2024/2025.

Morocco and the United States each account for about 6%.

The United Kingdom, Switzerland, Australia, Turkey, and Ukraine each take about 1%, while other destinations collectively account for about 6%.

Uganda is increasingly expanding its reach into non-traditional markets, with Morocco and China gaining importance.

Post revised the 2025/2026 export estimate upward by 2.8% from 6.52 to 6.70 million bags to reflect additional exports to non-reporting destinations, particularly Sudan.

Policy Shift Toward Value Addition

Uganda plans to gradually reduce exports of unprocessed coffee in line with the country’s focus on value addition to achieve its ambitious tenfold growth strategy.

The government aims to attract investment in coffee processing activities to expand industries, increase export earnings, and create jobs across the value chain.

This would prioritize exports of processed coffee products such as roasted and soluble coffee over green beans.

However, officials indicate that the transition will occur gradually rather than through an immediate ban, allowing green bean exports to continue in the short to medium term as local processing capacity and supporting infrastructure expand.

In 2025, the government restructured the Uganda Coffee Development Authority, integrating its functions into the Ministry of Agriculture, Animal Industry and Fisheries.

Initial implementation has yielded mixed feedback, with some stakeholders reporting continued access to services with minimal disruption, while others indicate delays in service delivery.

Frequently Asked Questions

How much coffee will Uganda produce in 2026/2027?
Production is forecast at 7.2 million 60 kg bags, up from 7.1 million bags.

What is the breakdown between Robusta and Arabica?
Robusta accounts for 6.0 million bags (80%), while Arabica accounts for 1.1 million bags (20%).

What are the main export destinations for Ugandan coffee?
The European Union takes 73% of exports, followed by Morocco (6%) and the United States (6%).

How much have fertilizer prices increased?
Fertilizer prices have risen by approximately 21% for a 50‑kg bag.

What is Uganda’s policy on coffee exports?
Uganda plans to gradually reduce green bean exports and shift toward processed coffee (roasted and soluble) to boost value addition.


Author: Qahwa World – Nairobi | Source: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service – Report UG2026-0001 | Date: May 20, 2026

Nicaraguan Coffee Output Falls 8% in 2026

Author: Qahwa World – Managua

Source: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service – Report NU2026-0003
Date: May 20, 2026

Nicaraguan Coffee Output Falls 8% in 2026

Executive Summary

  • Nicaraguan coffee production for 2026/2027 is forecast at 2.4 million 60 kg bags, down 8% from the recent high of 2.6 million bags.
  • High probability of El Niño in the second half of 2026, typically associated with droughts in Central America, threatens grain filling and yields.
  • Fertilizer costs have risen 25% due to global shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.
  • Exports forecast at 2.25 million bags. United States is the largest market with 35% share, followed by the European Union with 32%.
  • About 45,000 farmers cultivate 143,000 hectares, including 7,000 hectares of Robusta.
  • More than 600,000 Nicaraguans (10% of the population) have left the country since 2018, exacerbating labor shortages.
  • Brazil’s projected 23% increase in Arabica output could create a global surplus and drive prices down 35%, hurting Nicaraguan farmer profitability.

The USDA Foreign Agricultural Service office in Managua forecasts Nicaraguan coffee production (including Robusta) for marketing year 2026/2027 at 2.4 million 60 kg bags, 8% below the recent high of 2.6 million bags.

Although farmers reported good flowering in March and April 2026, the high probability of El Niño in the second half of 2026, typically associated with droughts in Central America, could significantly impact grain filling, quality, and yield.

Fertilizer costs have risen 25% due to global shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, presenting another factor that could reduce the crop.

FAS Managua estimates total production for 2025/2026 at 2.56 million bags, down 4% from the previous year. An extended canícula (mid‑summer drought in July and August) impacted grain filling in some low‑altitude regions. Despite lower production, farmers characterized the 2025/2026 harvest as highly successful due to record‑breaking prices; exporters paid up to $290 per bag for exportable coffee.

The industry largely avoided significant labor shortages as a more balanced harvest cycle eliminated typical peaks in worker demand, though some regions still reported shortages affecting harvest completion. One large farmer estimated losing 30% of his harvest due to lack of coffee pickers.

El Niño and Higher Fertilizer Costs Threaten Next Season

NOAA has forecast a 62% probability of El Niño (potentially a “Super El Niño”) developing by mid‑2026. This weather event is associated with droughts in Nicaragua and the region, which could significantly reduce yields and increase pest vulnerability. Meanwhile, fertilizer prices have risen 25% in the first half of 2026 due to global shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, adding further pressure on growers.

Beyond weather risk and rising input costs, coffee exporters are concerned that Brazil’s projected 23% increase in Arabica production in 2026/2027 may create the largest global surplus in five years and drive prices down by as much as 35%, undermining farmer profitability. Despite these challenges, the coffee industry remains optimistic, and FAS Managua believes Nicaragua will continue supplying high‑quality coffee in the years ahead.

Planted Area and Labor Shortages

FAS Managua projects planted area for 2026/2027 to remain unchanged at 143,000 hectares, with harvested area slightly lower at 141,000 hectares due to labor shortages resulting from increased outbound migration over the last five years. There are approximately 45,000 coffee growers cultivating about 143,000 hectares, of which 7,000 hectares are planted with Robusta varieties. More than 85% of Arabica coffee farms are in North Central Nicaragua (departments of Jinotega, Matagalpa, and Nueva Segovia), while Robusta production is concentrated in the Southern Caribbean Coast Autonomous Region.

According to industry contacts, more than 600,000 Nicaraguans (10% of the population) have fled the country since 2018, worsening labor shortages in the agricultural sector. One large farmer estimated losing 30% of his harvest due to lack of coffee pickers.

Table 1: Nicaragua Coffee Production, Supply and Distribution (1,000 60 kg bags)

Exports and Key DestinationsFAS Managua estimates Nicaraguan coffee exports will reach 2.25 million bags in 2026/2027, reflecting the anticipated production decline. The United States was the largest market for Nicaraguan coffee in 2024/2025, accounting for 35% of all exports. Most of these shipments are high‑quality Arabica beans demanded by specialty coffee roasters and cafes. The European Union is the second‑largest market, with approximately 32% share, where buyers particularly seek organic and fair‑trade coffees. Exporters are exploring opportunities to expand sales into China, as the United States and Europe are considered mature markets with limited growth prospects.Table 2: Nicaraguan Coffee Exports by Destination (60 kg bags)Policies and Structural ChallengesLaw 853 (Law for the Transformation and Development of the Coffee Sector), enacted in 2013, is one of the government’s main policies to support coffee growers. It levies a fee on each exported 60 kg bag, averaging $4 per bag in 2025/2026. Industry sources estimate the law has collected more than $40 million since 2013. However, growers have mixed opinions about its impact; some have benefited from the renovation fund, while others view the export fee as a financial burden.In contrast, in 2019 the government imposed taxes on fertilizers and agrochemicals for the first time, with import duties reaching up to 30% for certain products. This development diminishes profitability gains from earlier tax exonerations and reduces growers’ access to essential inputs like fertilizer. Coffee employs more than 330,000 people along the value chain, making it one of Nicaragua’s most important economic activities.Frequently Asked Questions

How much coffee will Nicaragua produce in 2026/2027?

Production is forecast at 2.4 million 60 kg bags, down 8% from the recent high of 2.6 million bags.

What is causing the expected decline?

A high probability of El Niño causing drought, plus a 25% increase in fertilizer costs due to shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.

What are the main export destinations for Nicaraguan coffee?

The United States (35%) and the European Union (32%) are the largest markets, followed by Belgium, Germany, and Canada.

How many farmers and how much land are involved?

Approximately 45,000 farmers cultivate 143,000 hectares, including 7,000 hectares of Robusta.

How does Brazil’s production increase affect Nicaragua?

Brazil’s projected 23% rise in Arabica output could create a global surplus and push prices down by up to 35%, hurting Nicaraguan farmer profitability.

Author: Qahwa World – Managua | Source: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service – Report NU2026-0003 | Date: May 20, 2026

Item 2024/2025 Official 2025/2026 Estimate 2026/2027 Forecast
Planted Area (1,000 HA) 143 143 143
Harvested Area (1,000 HA) 141 141 141
Total Production (1,000 bags) 2,560 2,560 2,440
Total Exports (1,000 bags) 2,410 2,420 2,250
Domestic Consumption (1,000 bags) 160 160 160
Ending Stocks (1,000 bags) 130 130 85
Country 2022/2023 2023/2024 2024/2025
United States 1,113,500 850,266 895,066
Belgium 280,180 427,268 470,917
Germany 101,075 116,693 221,633
Canada 73,393 78,167 81,383
Italy 98,275 72,767 89,933
Mexico 10,218 4,467 82,183

A New Era for Coffee: The EU-India Free Trade Agreement

By: Fabricio Scocco

After nearly two decades of complex negotiations, we are witnessing a historic milestone. The European Union and India have reached a comprehensive free trade agreement that is set to reshape the landscape of international commerce. By removing up to 90% of tariffs between these two regions, we are opening doors to a combined market of over 2 billion people—an economic powerhouse representing 25% of the global GDP.

For those of us operating within the specialty coffee sector, this development is more than just a policy shift; it is a critical evolution for design-driven, sustainable brands.

  • Redefining the Coffee Supply Chain

The impact on coffee trade and packaging cannot be overstated. The reduction of tariffs on key imports creates a streamlined highway for goods:For India: Exporting green coffee, raw materials, and packaging into the EU will become significantly more efficient due to reduced barriers.For Europe: Companies sourcing or co-producing in India will now have access to smoother, more cost-effective trade lanes.Competitiveness: High-end roasted coffee and innovative packaging solutions will immediately become more competitive on the global stage.

  • Strategic Collaboration and Innovation

We are entering a pivotal moment for strategic partnerships. Consider the existing synergy between We Brand Coffee (INDIA) and Takumi Collective (Netherlands). This agreement validates and accelerates such collaborations where design, sourcing, and packaging flow across borders.

By reducing logistic complexity, we can focus on what truly matters: co-manufacturing opportunities and creating packaging solutions that meet rigorous EU standards while celebrating India’s vibrant specialty coffee scene.

  • Market Outlook and Buying Behavior

As the trade landscape shifts, we anticipate several key trends in buying behavior:Sustainability Focus: Indian packaging providers will likely see a surge in demand from EU brands that prioritize sustainable materials.Exploration of Origin: EU roasters and micro-brands can now explore Indian-origin coffee with significantly less financial risk.Creative Co-development: Branding agencies in both regions will find it easier to co-develop storytelling assets and packaging designs.

  • Navigating the Risks

While the momentum is high, we must remain pragmatic. The agreement still requires official ratification from the EU Parliament and Indian authorities. Furthermore, stakeholders must stay vigilant regarding:Currency and Geopolitics: Short-term cost-benefits may be influenced by FX-driven producer shifts and geopolitical changes.

Regulatory Alignment: Close monitoring of food safety, sustainability criteria, and packaging regulations is essential.Environmental Factors: Unfavorable weather during peak harvest remains a variable that could disrupt supply levels.

  • The Bottom Line

Despite these risks, our market confidence remains medium-to-high. There is a strong mutual interest in diversifying trade and moving away from US-centric dependencies.

This agreement is the foundation for a new phase of commercial and creative cooperation. For those of us building in the coffee world—from bean to brand—this is a unique opportunity to rethink how we work across borders.

Challenges and Opportunities in Expanding Across Europe’s Coffee Market

Dubai,February 22, 2024(QW):In 2022, the European Union consumed a staggering 2.54 million tons of coffee, representing 24% of global consumption. The coffee market in Europe is undeniably significant, but its complexity and fragmentation pose significant obstacles for roasters looking to expand.

Many of the world’s largest roasting companies, including family heritage brands such as Lavazza, Ilyi, Dauwe Egberts and Tshibo, have their roots in Europe. However, the diversity of cultures, operational and regulatory aspects makes expansion across the continent a challenge.

Despite strong demand, expanding into Europe is not as easy as it may seem. Whether it’s European chains looking to expand into other parts of the continent or American roasters looking to tap into an entirely different market, the options need to be carefully considered.

One of the main challenges is the diversity of individual coffee cultures, which cannot be generalized across Europe. The Nordic countries of Europe, for example, boast thriving third-wave coffee scenes, with innovative roasters whose trends are largely shaped in this part of the continent. Scandinavia, for example, played a major role in the development of modern filter coffee culture and is often credited with popularizing light roasting. Likewise, many cities in the UK, such as London, boast a strong specialty coffee scene.

Eastern Europe, meanwhile, is significantly different. While some major cities here are experiencing a booming specialty coffee scene, many countries in the region are still considered emerging markets with low individual consumption compared to other regions of the continent.

Meanwhile, in some Western European countries such as France and Austria, tradition still plays an important role and, in some cases, hinders the growth of third wave coffee culture. For example, Parisian café culture is renowned throughout the world, and the term “French Rise” reflects the widespread preference for dark-roasted coffee.

Viennese coffee shops have even been recognized by UNESCO as an intangible part of the country’s cultural heritage, but they are known for their drinks that are more in line with traditional Italian espresso and cappuccino culture than anything resembling specialty coffee.

In addition to these regional cultural changes, some markets in Europe are much more price sensitive than others. An espresso in London can cost over £4, which may be a realistic price point for specialty coffee chains looking to expand. But in most regions of Italy, an espresso costs around €1, making it a difficult environment for specialty coffee brands to innovate and thrive.

“The European coffee market is quite diverse, and I would say there are different coffee drinking cultures, if not by country, then certainly by region,” says Ola Brattas, import and roasting manager at Kaffebrenneriet, a chain of coffee bars and roasters. companies based in Norway.

Coffee roasters often develop a sense of cultural identity that reflects their origins. This may make it difficult for them to expand their market into regions where consumers may not identify with their brand or roasting style.

This is in contrast to coffee roasters in the US, where regional expansion faces far fewer cultural barriers and businesses can access the entire population of the country with relative ease. There are also certain standards specific to the US, such as drip coffee, which is common to many different regions.

Coffee culture aside, there are other barriers for roasters looking to expand their operations in Europe. Language is one of them – a different approach is required to expand between neighboring countries that may be smaller in size than US states. There are also differences in currencies.

Additionally, the U.S. as a whole provides greater access to capital markets, venture capital funding, and investment opportunities that can support scaling a coffee roasting business. In contrast, obtaining funding that can help a roaster expand its reach overseas is often perceived as a more difficult task in European countries.

Ultimately, the fragmented structure of the coffee market in Europe not only poses a challenge when trying to attract such a large and diverse audience, but operational differences such as these make expansion across the continent a costly endeavor. A culturally sensitive approach to expansion that takes into account what is important to consumers in each country can, however, lead to positive results.

Europe’s heterogeneous structure may seem like a challenge for roasters looking to scale internationally, especially compared to the relatively unified regulatory framework of the United States.

“The fact that Europe is made up of many countries and the US is made up of one country makes it easier for roasters in the US to expand state by state than for roasters in Europe to do the same across national borders,” says Ola.

Although there are federal and state regulations, they are generally perceived as simpler compared to the variety of laws in various European countries. And while the European Union can create a relatively consistent regulatory environment for roasters looking to scale, this is far from eliminating the variability between different countries.

For example, VAT rates, excise duties and other tax-related issues vary from country to country within Europe, affecting the pricing and financial planning of coffee roasters looking to expand across the continent.

Likewise, environmental regulations, labeling, food safety, and health and safety regulations vary depending on the country in which a business chooses to operate. For example, the Working Time Directive in France, Germany and Spain states that employees are entitled to minimum daily and weekly breaks with a maximum of 48 hours per week. In contrast, the UK allows employees to opt out by allowing them to work longer. This has implications for how a roasting business manages its staff and associated costs.

In addition, enforcement practices and penalties for non-compliance with health and safety standards vary widely. France, for example, sends thousands of cases to prosecutors every year, with high levels of fines and prison sentences for violations. In contrast, the UK’s OSHA prosecutes fewer violations but with a high conviction rate, and fines in Germany can reach up to €500,000 for willful violations.

This is just the tip of the iceberg in terms of regulatory differences between the UK and other European countries. Brexit has also been a significant setback for roasters looking to expand into one of Europe’s largest consumer markets. This type of logistical and regulatory schism differs significantly from the US, where federal regulation provides a much more unified framework.

Ultimately, Europe is a multifaceted and fragmented market that presents many scaling challenges for roasters. But it’s also the largest market with perhaps the richest history of coffee and the most consistent demand, making it a worthwhile effort to enter – no matter the challenges.