Tag: smallholder farmers

Why Dubai Coffee Traders Must Prepare for EUDR now?

Posted on by Qahwa World

The December 2026 EUDR deadline will reshape how African coffee reaches European consumers — and traders in the Gulf are caught in the middle.

By Raymond Reuel Wayesu

Dubai has become the Middle East’s dominant coffee trading hub, with re-exports valued at nearly $1 billion annually and over 615 licensed traders operating through the DMCC Coffee Centre. Much of this coffee originates in East Africa — Ethiopia, Uganda, and Kenya — and is destined for European roasters and retailers.
But a regulatory storm is approaching that threatens to disrupt these established trade flows.

  • What is the EUDR?

The EU Deforestation Regulation (Regulation 2023/1115), which takes effect on 30 December 2026, requires that all coffee entering the European market be verified as “deforestation-free” with plot-level geolocation data. Importers must submit Due Diligence Statements proving their coffee was not grown on land deforested after December 2020.
The scale of this requirement is unprecedented. For Uganda alone, this means geolocating approximately 1.7 million smallholder coffee farmers, each cultivating an average of just 0.18 hectares.

  • Why should Dubai-based traders care?

Here’s the critical issue: traceability chains break when coffee passes through intermediary hubs.

Research from CIFOR-ICRAF found that EUDR compliance maps contain significant accuracy problems—claiming “12% more forest globally than national FAO data” with an “18% chance that a spatial unit marked as forest is considered non-forest in other data” (van Noordwijk et al., 2025). The same researchers warn that smallholders practising agroforestry – the very farmers who have preserved Africa’s remaining coffee forests – could become “collateral damage” of poorly designed compliance systems.

For traders handling mixed-origin lots, the risk compounds. Under EUDR, mixing compliant and non-compliant coffee renders entire shipments non-compliant. Industry analysis estimates that 50% of EU coffee imports are “disenfranchised” — passing through multiple intermediaries with up to ten handlers between farmer and exporter.

The Overseas Development Institute warns that Ethiopia could face “an 18.4% drop in overall exports and a 0.6% decrease in GDP” if coffee exports to the EU cease (Keane et al., 2024). Uganda, now Africa’s largest coffee exporter by volume with 60% of exports destined for Europe, faces similar exposure. UNCTAD’s analysis is stark: “Traceable coffee is only possible with an estimated 10% of Ugandan producers” given its 1.8 million smallholder farming households.

A Stanford-led review concludes that “despite zero-deforestation commitments, high rates of deforestation persist” and that “supply chain initiatives only cover a small share of tropical deforestation” (Lambin & Furumo, 2023). Wageningen University researchers examining Cameroon and Ethiopia warn that “smallholder farmers may face greater challenges than currently anticipated by the EU” due to “limited awareness and infrastructural gaps that hinder traceability” (Ten Hove et al., 2025).

The traders who solve this traceability gap will maintain their EU market access. Those who don’t risk being cut off from Europe’s €8 billion coffee market — or facing penalties of up to 4% of EU turnover.

  • What can traders do now?

With 12 months until enforcement, the window for preparation is narrowing. Practical steps include auditing your supply chain exposure to identify which suppliers and origins lack plot-level geolocation data, engaging with origin-country traceability initiatives such as Uganda’s National Traceability System, and evaluating compliance technology partners.

  • A note on validation

Full disclosure: I’m the founder of ProofSource, a coffee traceability platform being developed for EUDR compliance. But I’m sharing this analysis because the problem is real and urgent — regardless of which solution traders ultimately choose.
We’re currently in validation mode, offering free 30-day EUDR Readiness Assessments to coffee exporters and traders. This diagnostic service maps your supply chain exposure, identifies traceability gaps, and delivers a personalised compliance roadmap — before we build our full platform. We believe in testing whether the market truly needs what we’re building before we build it. Request your assessment at proofsource.vercel.app

Building the complete solution — particularly the satellite verification infrastructure needed to verify deforestation-free status at scale — requires significant investment. We’re actively seeking partnerships with climate-focused research institutions, coffee industry funds, and innovation programmes in the Gulf region who share our mission of protecting smallholder market access while preventing deforestation.

If you’re a Dubai- or Abu Dhabi-based trader wanting to understand your EUDR exposure, or a research institution interested in collaborating on coffee supply chain traceability, I welcome the conversation.

The December 2026 deadline will arrive faster than anyone expects. The traders who act now will be positioned to maintain their European market access. Those who wait may find themselves scrambling — or shut out entirely.

Raymond Reuel Wayesu is the founder of ProofSource and a PhD candidate in machine learning and computer vision for agriculture.
Contact: [email protected] | [email protected]

Smallholder Farmers at the Heart of the Global Coffee Crisis

Posted on by Qahwa World

Dubai, 18 September 2025 (Qahwa World) – Coffee, consumed in more than two billion cups every day, is more than a morning ritual. It is a global industry worth over $200 billion and a lifeline for more than 25 million smallholder farmers worldwide. Yet, according to a new report by the DMCC Coffee Centre, part of the Dubai Multi Commodities Centre, these farmers—responsible for about 80% of global coffee supplies—are facing unprecedented challenges that put the future of the crop at risk.

The report highlights the extreme vulnerability of coffee to climate change. Unlike many other agricultural commodities, coffee depends on very specific geographic and climatic conditions. Minor shifts in temperature or rainfall patterns can devastate entire harvests.

By 2050, up to half of the land currently used for coffee cultivation could become unsuitable. Arabica, which accounts for 60–70% of global production and is prized for its high quality, is the most at risk. It requires a delicate balance of cool temperatures and clearly defined wet and dry seasons. Even robusta, known for its heat tolerance, may not escape the impact of intensifying climate shocks.

Recent years have already provided glimpses of this looming reality. In Vietnam, prolonged drought in the 2023/24 season cut output by 20% and exports by 10%. In Brazil, the world’s largest coffee producer, one of the worst droughts in its history caused arabica prices to surge by more than 80% in 2024.

Broken Pricing Systems

Beyond the climate, smallholder farmers are caught in an unequal trading system. The report warns that global price-setting mechanisms, once seen as reliable, have grown increasingly speculative and disconnected from actual production costs.

While coffee sells at high prices in consumer markets, farmers often receive only a fraction—barely enough to cover basic expenses. With little access to financial safety nets, crop failures or market shocks quickly translate into crises for farming households, undermining food security, education, and healthcare for millions.

To counter these pressures, smallholders are turning to collective solutions. In Rwanda, cooperatives such as COOCAMU have helped farmers adopt sustainable practices and gain better market access. Across Kenya, Uganda, and Ethiopia, governments and NGOs are supporting similar cooperative models that enhance bargaining power and provide training.

The report cites the ARABIKA project, which brings together over 30,000 farmers from 21 cooperatives in East Africa. By offering income management training and tools to improve yields, the project has boosted resilience against both climate and market volatility.

Coffee Value Assessment

The Coffee Value Assessment, developed by the Specialty Coffee Association, also emerges as a significant tool for empowering smallholders. Unlike traditional systems that focus narrowly on physical or sensory attributes, this framework integrates quality metrics with market preferences.

Garfield Kerr, President of the Specialty Coffee Association, explains: “Coffee may be sold several times before reaching the consumer, and the farmer often has no idea of its true value. If we can equip farmers with scientific tools for assessment, they will be able to exert greater influence over its journey to market.”

By helping producers better understand the unique qualities of their harvests, the system opens doors to more accurate pricing and targeted market opportunities.

The DMCC Coffee Centre report points to a range of promising adaptation strategies. Agroforestry—growing coffee alongside trees and diverse crops—offers shade, soil protection, water conservation, and alternative income streams. Breeding drought- and disease-resistant varieties is another urgent frontier.

On a global scale, institutions such as the International Coffee Organization and the International Trade Centre are supporting a sustainability database covering more than 400 climate-focused initiatives. These range from training programs on organic fertilization to cooperative-led climate adaptation projects.

At its core, the report stresses, the future of coffee is inseparable from the fate of its smallholder farmers. Without them, the industry cannot sustain itself, and the daily flow of billions of cups of coffee around the world could falter.

While blockchain, artificial intelligence, and other innovations are reshaping coffee trade, the most urgent priority remains ensuring farmers have the tools, financing, and fair policies to continue producing. The real battle for coffee’s survival is not fought in cafés or trading floors, but in remote fields where smallholders cultivate the beans that unite cultures and economies across continents.

The DMCC Coffee Centre concludes that urgent investment and global collaboration are essential. Supporting smallholder farmers is not only a matter of preserving a crop but of safeguarding livelihoods, communities, and an irreplaceable cultural heritage.