Category: Studies

• Mexico’s coffee output is forecast to reach 3.9 million bags in 2025/2026, driven by high prices and renewed investment. Exports and consumption rise, but challenges remain in labor and farm renovation.

According to the Coffee Annual Report – Mexico 2025/2026, published by the U.S. Department of Agriculture on May 20, 2025, Mexico’s coffee production is projected to reach 3.9 million bags (green bean equivalent) in the upcoming season. This slight increase over the previous year is fueled by strong international prices, targeted government support, and sustained efforts to renovate plantations and promote coffee quality.

Production is concentrated in four states—Chiapas, Veracruz, Puebla, and Oaxaca—which together account for over 91% of the national output. Chiapas remains the leading state by volume, while Puebla continues to post the highest productivity levels, thanks to favorable agro-climatic conditions, investment in disease-resistant varieties, and proximity to urban infrastructure.

Arabica coffee dominates production with 3.5 million bags, while robusta output is forecast to decline slightly, especially in lowland Veracruz, which was hit by heatwaves between June and October 2024. The national average yield stands at 5.89 GBE/ha, with Veracruz and Puebla reporting much higher averages of 7.04 and 12.22 GBE/ha, respectively.

Although planted and harvested areas remain relatively stable across Mexico’s 14 coffee-growing states, factors like labor shortages, input costs, climate variability, and pests continue to affect year-to-year output. Labor challenges are particularly acute in Chiapas, where restrictions on migrant workers—especially from Guatemala—and competition from higher-paying industries like tourism have limited workforce availability. Rising costs across transportation, fertilizer, and fuel further strain profitability.

Despite these obstacles, Mexico’s domestic consumption is expected to grow modestly to 3.15 million bags, a 1.6% increase from the previous year. The demand for roasted coffee is driving this growth, with urban areas showing increased interest in single-origin and premium varieties. Soluble coffee still dominates the market, accounting for 57% of total consumption, but the specialty segment is expanding steadily.

A notable development in 2024 was the launch of Café Bienestar, a government-backed instant coffee brand distributed through over 24,000 Bienestar stores across Mexico. The program aims to provide affordable coffee while supporting small producers, especially in northern Veracruz. Though the brand currently represents a small share of the soluble market, it plays a key social role by increasing access to coffee in underserved communities.

Mexico’s coffee exports are projected to rise to 3.05 million bags in 2025/2026, including 1.6 million bags of soluble coffee. The United States remains the top buyer of Mexican coffee in all forms—green, roasted, and soluble. Export volumes are seasonally highest between April and May, and recent revisions have shown stronger-than-expected shipments of soluble products.

At the same time, coffee imports are expected to increase to 2.39 million bags, mostly driven by robusta imports used in blending and soluble manufacturing. Brazil remains the leading supplier of green and soluble imports, while the United States dominates roasted coffee imports.

Regulatory dynamics are shaping consumption trends. In March 2025, Mexico enacted the Healthy Life in Schools Law, which bans the sale of caffeinated beverages in primary and middle schools. While this may reduce early-age exposure to coffee, the law allows unsweetened coffee consumption in higher education institutions, potentially strengthening coffee habits among university students.

Meanwhile, the government continues to promote domestic coffee through programs such as “Ask for a Mexican Coffee,” encouraging agrotourism in Chiapas, Veracruz, and Puebla. Competitions like Expo Café, Cup of Excellence, and regional events like Expo Orgullo de Puebla play a critical role in boosting national appreciation for Mexican-grown coffee and connecting producers with buyers and consumers.

Private and NGO partnerships are also revitalizing the sector. Programs by Nestlé, Starbucks, Sabormex, BASF, and Solidaridad focus on distributing rust-resistant plants, offering agronomic training, soil analysis, and creating new business models through youth engagement. Starbucks alone has donated over 4.8 million seedlings and operates a Farmer Support Center in Chiapas. These efforts are complemented by partnerships with universities, co-ops, and international donors.

Policy-wise, Mexico is consolidating coffee support programs under the Cosechando Soberanía en Café initiative. In 2024, over 205,000 producers received direct support payments totaling nearly US $75 million. Fertilizer subsidies and certified seed distribution are also part of a broader 2026–2030 strategic plan aimed at stabilizing productivity, improving plant health, and expanding exports to Eastern Europe and Asia.

At the global level, price volatility remains a central factor. In April 2025, coffee prices fluctuated between 308 and 340 US cents per pound, driven by supply disruptions in Brazil, rising global demand, and potential tariffs. The tight global supply, combined with increased investment by Mexican farmers, has temporarily boosted margins, but the long-term outlook depends on whether global supply growth corrects prices in the coming seasons.

As Mexico enters the 2025/2026 marketing year, the coffee sector finds itself in a cautiously optimistic position. Strong prices, rising demand, and quality-driven initiatives are supporting producers and exporters alike, but risks tied to climate, regulation, and cost must be carefully managed to maintain momentum.

Vietnam forecasts a record 31 million coffee bags in 2025/2026, with robusta dominating production. Exports and domestic consumption rise, while prices and processing investment reshape the sector.

The Vietnam Coffee Annual Report 2025/2026, published by the U.S. Department of Agriculture on May 19, 2025, projects a notable recovery in Vietnam’s coffee sector, with total production expected to reach 31 million 60-kg bags of green bean equivalent. This marks a strong rebound from the previous year’s 29 million bags and reflects both improved weather and stronger farmer investment driven by record prices. Robusta continues to account for the vast majority of production, at an estimated 30 million bags, while arabica holds steady at 1 million bags.

The Central Highlands — including Dak Lak, Lam Dong, Dak Nong, Gia Lai, and Kon Tum — remain the core of Vietnam’s coffee industry, producing over 90% of the country’s output. The combination of volcanic soil, high elevation, and distinct wet-dry seasons creates optimal conditions for robusta cultivation. Despite some local media reports about farmers switching to higher-value crops like durian, official data shows the coffee area expanding, with 730,000 hectares planted in 2024, 92% of which is harvestable.

Farmer investments have been bolstered by global coffee prices that more than doubled over the past year. Domestic robusta prices reached approximately VND 125,000 per kilogram in early 2025 — a 130% increase over 2024 — while average export prices hit $5,630 per ton, up 143% year-on-year. Many producers, anticipating further gains, have been withholding stocks, which caused a 23% drop in exports during the first half of 2024/2025 despite strong global demand. Exporters have shifted toward a just-in-time model, moving away from large-scale stockpiling as capital costs rise.

Vietnam’s coffee exports are expected to rebound to 27 million bags in 2025/2026, up from an estimated 25.8 million in the current year. This includes 23.7 million bags of green coffee and 3.3 million bags of processed products, such as roasted and soluble coffee. Processed coffee continues to gain market share, rising from 8.8% of exports in 2022 to 9.6% in 2024, fueled by growing demand in Asia. Countries like the Philippines, China, and Indonesia are paying higher prices than Europe, with the Philippines paying $4,424/ton, compared to Germany’s $3,390 or Italy’s $3,260.

Soluble and roasted coffee exports are gaining momentum, supported by major factory investments. Nestlé recently invested nearly $75 million to expand its Dong Nai facility — producing for over 35 global markets — bringing its total Vietnam investment to nearly $1 billion. Local companies are also scaling up: Trung Nguyen is building a $75 million processing plant in Dak Lak, and Highlands Coffee opened a new $20 million facility with a processing capacity of 75,000 tons per year.

Domestic consumption is also growing fast. Forecasts for 2025/2026 suggest 4.9 million bags will be consumed locally, up from 4 million this year. This growth is driven by a rising middle class, recovering tourism, and a boom in café culture. Vietnam now has over 500,000 cafés, from traditional street vendors to modern coffee chains. Takeaway and home-brewed coffee are also gaining popularity among younger consumers.

Meanwhile, Vietnam is preparing for the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR), which takes effect in 2026. With 41% of exports destined for the EU, compliance is critical. Two Vietnamese companies have already met the requirements — including Simexco Daklak with its traceability system. The Ministry of Agriculture and Environment is building regional monitoring systems covering 136,000 hectares, developing a national coffee database to support certifications like Rainforest Alliance, 4C, and Fair Trade.

While weather conditions in early 2025 were favorable — with higher rainfall than 2024 — concerns remain about drought risks in April and May. Nonetheless, the overall forecast suggests stable and improving growing conditions. Vietnam’s top research institution, WASI, continues to supply 4–5 million coffee seedlings per year for new and replanted farms, aiming to raise productivity and climate resilience.

Despite the high prices, coffee yield improvements remain critical. Robusta yields are forecast at 2.90 metric tons per hectare, slightly up from 2.73 in 2024. Arabica yields remain modest and will require stronger investment and varietal development. The Ministry’s specialty coffee development plan aims to expand specialty coffee to 19,000 hectares by 2030, signaling future diversification in quality segments.

Vietnam’s coffee imports are projected to decline slightly to 800,000 bags in 2025/2026 due to higher domestic supply, but sustained demand for arabica beans and processing inputs will keep import levels stable.

As Vietnam enters the 2025/2026 marketing year, it does so with strong fundamentals: record prices, recovering export flows, fast-growing domestic demand, and a strategic shift toward higher-value products and traceable supply chains. However, exporters must remain agile amid price volatility and regulatory pressure, especially as Europe and Asia demand more than just beans — they want quality, transparency, and resilience.

Indonesia projects 5% growth in coffee production for 2025/2026, reaching 11.3 million bags. Robusta dominates output, exports rise 7%, but domestic consumption slows amid weak spending.

According to the Coffee Annual Report – Indonesia 2025/2026, published by the U.S. Department of Agriculture on May 19, 2025, Indonesia’s coffee production is forecast to reach 11.3 million 60-kg bags, marking a 5% increase over the previous year. This growth is attributed to favorable weather during the flowering season and improved farm inputs. However, despite higher production and a 7% rise in exports, domestic consumption remains sluggish due to weak middle-class spending.

Indonesia’s total planted area remains unchanged at 1.2 million hectares, as no major expansion or replanting initiatives have been introduced in recent years. Smallholder plantations—typically between one and two hectares—continue to dominate the sector, accounting for 98% of total area. Larger estates, managed by private and state-owned companies, are located primarily in Sulawesi, Sumatra, and East Java.

The island of Sumatra remains the heart of Indonesia’s coffee belt, producing 70–75% of the country’s total output, with the majority being robusta from provinces like South Sumatra, Lampung, and Bengkulu. Arabica production is centered in North Sumatra, as well as high-altitude zones in Java, Sulawesi, and Papua.

In 2025/2026, robusta production is expected to increase by 500,000 bags, reaching 9.8 million bags, driven by improved rainfall and increased fertilizer use. Farmers in Jambi and South Sumatra began harvesting in late April 2025, with peak harvest expected between June and July. Meanwhile, arabica production is projected to reach 1.45 million bags, showing a slight increase. Arabica is harvested twice annually—in April/May and again in September/October.

Improved margins from rising prices over the past two years have motivated smallholders to rejuvenate neglected plots and adopt better farm practices. In regions like Lampung, fertilizers and pesticides are often accessed on credit through village-level aggregators. Family labor is commonly used, with rotational harvesting labor helping reduce overall costs.

Despite this, yields—especially for robusta—remain below one ton per hectare, constrained by inconsistent seed quality and a limited supply of improved planting material. Local government support for better seedlings and training programs remains geographically limited.

Domestic consumption in 2025/2026 is forecast at 4.81 million bags, up slightly by just 10,000 bags. While roasteries and processors continue to show demand, many were pressured by rising input costs and subdued consumer purchasing power during 2024/2025. Lower- to mid-grade coffee products are expected to perform better, particularly among working-class and Gen Z consumers in urban areas. Street vendors and hawkers selling affordable coffee maintain steady sales, while high-end cafés remain popular with younger and higher-income demographics.

Ready-to-drink (RTD) coffee sales continue to grow—albeit at a slower pace. In 2025, RTD volume is projected to increase by 3%, the slowest rate since the pandemic. These products, often priced more accessibly than those at branded coffee chains, have become increasingly popular in convenience stores and vending machines.

On the trade front, green bean exports are forecast to increase to 6.5 million bags, up from 6.1 million last year. The growth comes from improved availability following the production rebound. However, uncertainty surrounds shipments to the United States, which had resumed during a temporary tariff pause but may face disruption after July 2025. Exporters are bracing for the expiration of a 90-day suspension on a reciprocal 32% tariff, and are actively redirecting shipments to alternative destinations such as ASEAN countries, Japan, the EU, and the Middle East.

In 2024/2025, exports to the U.S. reached 726,000 bags, a 23% increase over the prior year. The EU remained the top buyer, driven by demand from Belgium and Germany, with over 1.4 million bags shipped between March 2024 and February 2025—double the volume from the previous year. However, the upcoming EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) poses new compliance challenges. Exporters are now preparing to meet stricter traceability and sustainability requirements, including the need to provide due diligence statements certifying that coffee is deforestation-free.

Green bean imports, mostly of robusta from Vietnam and arabica from Brazil, are projected to fall to 400,000 bags in 2025/2026 as local availability improves. During the 2024 period, imports from Vietnam dropped to 490,000 bags, while Brazilian imports stood at 180,000 bags.

As for pricing, domestic bean prices have soared. Robusta spot prices in Lampung exceeded IDR 222,000/kg in early 2025, up sharply from IDR 55,000–70,000/kg the year before. Arabica spot prices in Medan surpassed IDR 213,000/kg in April and May. This price spike is tied to global market trends and lower stocks in late 2024, when many farmers held back supplies in anticipation of continued increases.

Despite these high prices, the use of high-yield, disease-resistant seedlings remains limited, and yield gaps persist across regions. Heavy rains and strong winds during cherry development continue to pose risks, especially for arabica grown in highland areas. However, weather during the flowering season was favorable, particularly from October to November 2024, boosting optimism for the current cycle.

As the Indonesian coffee sector moves into the 2025/2026 cycle, modest production gains, a resilient robusta base, and improved inputs set a stable foundation. But policy uncertainty, export redirection, price volatility, and looming EU regulations demand adaptive strategies. Strengthening farmer support programs, modernizing planting systems, and expanding traceability infrastructure will be key to sustaining momentum in the seasons ahead.

• Brazil forecasts 65 million bags of coffee in 2025/2026. Robusta expands while arabica falls. Revenue hits all-time high amid supply bottlenecks and global price surges.

The “Coffee Annual Report – Brazil 2025/2026,” published by the U.S. Department of Agriculture on May 15, 2025, indicates that Brazil, the world’s largest coffee producer, is set for a season with an estimated 65 million 60-kg bags of green coffee. This figure reflects relative stability in overall output compared to the previous year, but it conceals sharp contrasts between arabica and robusta performance. Arabica is expected to decline by 6.4% due to heat stress, drought, and its biennial cycle, while robusta continues to expand rapidly—up 15%—driven by improved weather and greater investment in irrigation and mechanization.

Key arabica-producing states like Minas Gerais and São Paulo experienced severe climatic stress during flowering. Minas Gerais endured over 200 days without rain, reducing blossom intensity and bean density, while São Paulo also reported dry weather at a critical phase. In contrast, states like Espírito Santo and Bahia benefited from more regular rainfall and improved irrigation systems, allowing them to sustain arabica yields and significantly boost robusta production. Espírito Santo alone now produces about 70% of Brazil’s robusta output, and Bahia is expected to increase its volume by 11%. Meanwhile, Rondônia reported delays in cherry maturation, but quality remains stable due to late but intense rains.

Despite the overall production rebound, coffee exports are forecast to decline by 5.6% to 41.75 million bags in the upcoming marketing year, affected by reduced availability, port congestion, and the return of strong competition from Vietnam and Indonesia. However, Brazil is capitalizing on favorable tariff structures, particularly in the United States, where Brazilian robusta enjoys a much lower duty than imports from some Asian countries. This opens new opportunities for robusta exports even as arabica shipments face mounting pressure.

Coffee prices have reached record highs in Brazil. In February 2025, arabica was priced at BRL 2,769.45 per 60-kg bag, while robusta reached BRL 2,102.12 in January. These price surges, driven by global supply disruptions and strong demand, have pushed the total value of Brazil’s coffee sector to BRL 126.7 billion—up 57% from last year and the highest in history. Arabica represents 71% of this revenue, while robusta contributes 29%.

Domestic coffee consumption in Brazil reached 22.28 million bags during the current season, showing a slight increase. However, per capita consumption declined to 5.01 kg due to population growth. The sharp rise in roasted coffee prices prompted some consumers to switch to instant coffee, which grew by 6% in the first quarter of 2025.

Soluble coffee exports also performed well. Spray-dried coffee accounted for 71.5% of the category, while freeze-dried shipments rose 19%. Premium coffee exports grew by 31%, particularly to the United States, Germany, Belgium, the Netherlands, and Japan.

Nonetheless, port infrastructure remains a major bottleneck. It is estimated that around 638,000 bags could not be exported due to port delays, resulting in losses exceeding BRL 1.5 billion. Brazil’s ports suffer from insufficient berth space and cannot accommodate large vessels, forcing the government to invest nearly USD 800 million in infrastructure upgrades in 2025.

To support growers, the government maintained minimum guaranteed prices at BRL 662.04 for arabica and BRL 498.79 for robusta. In addition, the National Coffee Fund (FUNCAFE) allocated BRL 6.88 billion to finance production, marketing, and weather damage recovery. Starting in 2026, Brazil will implement a broad tax reform that simplifies VAT and exempts basic food items, including coffee.

On the sustainability front, Brazil continues to strengthen its environmental and social compliance. According to the report, 97% of producers follow ESG-aligned practices, and the national digital traceability platform “Cafés do Brasil” is helping exporters meet the requirements of new EU regulations on deforestation-free supply chains.

While arabica faces a difficult season due to climatic instability, robusta is emerging as a strategic pillar for Brazil’s coffee future. With record-breaking revenues, growing export diversification, and strengthened sustainability credentials, Brazil remains a global coffee powerhouse—though continued improvements in infrastructure and support for smallholders will be critical to sustaining this momentum.

• Nicaragua expects a strong coffee harvest of 2.58 million bags in 2025/2026, supported by high prices and improved rainfall, despite persistent credit, labor, and export challenges.

Nicaragua is preparing for a strong coffee season in 2025/2026, with total production forecast at 2.58 million 60-kg bags, matching historical averages. The optimism among producers is driven by higher international prices—averaging above $280 per bag in early 2025—which have encouraged farmers to invest in fertilizers and field maintenance. Expectations for a more balanced rainy season under ENSO-neutral conditions are also contributing to a positive outlook. However, structural issues such as limited access to long-term credit, severe labor shortages, and export bottlenecks continue to cloud the sector’s long-term performance.

The previous marketing year, 2024/2025, marked a recovery for Nicaraguan coffee production, which rose to 2.56 million bags following a 10% drop the year before due to El Niño weather disruptions. While the second half of 2024 brought favorable rainfall and supported flowering, extended rains into December and January complicated the harvest and drying process. These delays, coupled with a compressed ripening period across different altitudes, worsened labor shortages and drove up wages. Many pickers demanded double their usual pay, leading to higher production costs and, in some regions, compromised bean quality.

Adding to the uncertainty, one of Nicaragua’s largest exporters filed for bankruptcy just before the 2024 harvest, causing disruptions in the supply chain and reducing market confidence. At the same time, a sharp price surge in late 2024 created liquidity issues for buyers and delayed shipments, particularly as Central American ports struggled with congestion and slow processing.

Despite these obstacles, coffee producers remain hopeful. Nicaraguan coffee continues to be in strong global demand, praised for its smooth and consistent flavor. Many cooperatives and exporters are certified under programs such as Rainforest Alliance and Fair Trade, allowing them to fetch above-average market prices. With such demand and premium positioning, farmers are more willing to invest in crop maintenance.

The total planted area for 2025/2026 is expected to remain at 143,000 hectares, with 141,000 hectares harvested. However, continued outbound migration over the last five years has reduced the available workforce, especially in rural areas, limiting the ability to expand or renew plantations. Since the coffee leaf rust outbreak in 2013, farmers have replanted approximately 20,000 hectares—about 14% of the total arabica area—but this pace is still below the ideal renewal rate. Experts recommend renewing at least 5% of coffee land annually to maintain long-term productivity, but most farms only replant when older trees die or become infected.

Arabica coffee dominates Nicaragua’s production, making up over 95% of output. The most common variety remains Caturra, followed by Bourbon, Paca, Catuai, Catimore, Maragogype, and Pacamara. Meanwhile, robusta production has remained stagnant, contributing about 160,000 bags annually. With the 2023 closure of Mercon, a major promoter of robusta in Nicaragua, some farmers have abandoned expansion plans in lower-altitude regions where robusta is suitable. Today, only about 7,000 hectares are planted with robusta, mostly in the Southern Caribbean Coast near Nueva Guinea.

Nicaragua’s average yield for arabica coffee is projected to remain at 18 bags per hectare for the upcoming season, assuming consistent rainfall and good farming practices. This matches the improved yield seen in 2024/2025 after the El Niño-driven decline the year before. Ongoing efforts from international projects like MOCCA, led by the USDA and World Coffee Research, have improved seed quality, certified nurseries, and expanded access to higher-yielding varieties like Marsellesa, Parainema, and IH Café 90. However, limited financing remains a major barrier to widespread adoption of these innovations.

Within the local market, per capita coffee consumption is forecast to remain at 1.5 kilograms in 2025/2026. However, a growing trend is emerging, especially among young consumers in urban areas, who are increasingly choosing high-quality roasted coffee. This has led to a boom in coffee shops in cities like Managua, offering everything from espresso to cold brew. While this shift reflects a modernization of coffee culture, broader consumption growth is held back by economic pressures, rising food costs, and continued emigration.

On the export front, Nicaragua is expected to ship 2.42 million bags in 2025/2026, a modest recovery after a 15% drop in 2023/2024. The United States remains Nicaragua’s top market, accounting for about 50% of all exports, particularly high-quality arabica beans favored by specialty roasters and cafés. The European Union is the second-largest destination, taking in around 30% of exports, especially organic and certified coffees which remain in strong demand.

However, global market uncertainty, weather concerns in Brazil and Vietnam, and supply chain stress are driving prices up, creating both opportunities and challenges for Nicaraguan exporters. High prices improve margins but also increase volatility, and delays at regional ports may continue to affect shipments in the coming season.

Nicaragua’s coffee sector, which employs more than 330,000 people across the value chain, remains one of the country’s most vital economic engines. Still, the road ahead will require coordinated efforts to overcome financial constraints, modernize infrastructure, and stabilize labor supply if producers are to maintain their position in the highly competitive global coffee market.

Colombia’s coffee production is forecast to fall by 5.3% in 2025/2026 due to heavy rains and record-high prices. Exports and domestic supply face new challenges.

Colombia, the third-largest coffee producer in the world, is expected to face a significant setback in the 2025/2026 marketing year as production is forecast to drop by 5.3%, reaching just 12.5 million 60-kg bags of green bean equivalent. The decrease, outlined in the USDA Coffee Annual Report for May 2025, is attributed to excessive rainfall that disrupted flowering, along with a sustained period of high coffee prices that has discouraged producers from investing in renovation and replanting. This downturn comes shortly after a modest recovery in the previous year, which had been driven by favorable El Niño conditions.

While El Niño raised temperatures and improved soil moisture, boosting production by 3.5% to 13.2 million bags in 2024/2025, that momentum was short-lived. In early 2025, heavy rains interrupted the flowering phase of coffee trees, setting the stage for a weaker harvest starting in October. Although the La Niña phenomenon is currently weakening and is expected to shift to neutral by late 2025, the damage to flowering has already impacted production forecasts for the start of the new season.

Despite strong prices—reaching COP 3.12 million per 125-kg bag by February 2025, a 70% increase since January 2024—producers are not reinvesting as expected. Higher domestic prices, while beneficial in the short term, have not offset the rising cost of production caused by wage increases and labor shortages, especially in rural coffee-growing areas. Even as fertilizer prices ease, overall profitability remains squeezed, prompting many growers to delay farm renovations.

A key strength in Colombia’s coffee sector lies in its specialty segment. Around 40% of national output qualifies as specialty-grade coffee certified by programs like Rainforest Alliance, Fairtrade, and Bird Friendly. These certifications allow smallholders—who produce 60% of the country’s coffee on plots under 5 hectares—to receive premium prices that help them stay afloat in challenging market conditions. Colombia has also made significant progress in upgrading its farms, with 87% of coffee-growing areas now planted with rust-resistant varieties, and average tree density reaching a record 5,340 trees per hectare. In late 2024, Colombia’s coffee research center Cenicafe introduced a new variety, Castillo 2.0, which is more resistant to disease and climate stress. However, it remains too early to gauge adoption among farmers.

Coffee exports are expected to fall to 11.8 million bags in 2025/2026—a 4.1% decline—primarily due to the drop in production. The United States remains Colombia’s top export market, absorbing over 40% of shipments, followed by the European Union, Canada, and Japan. Notably, exports to the U.S. are growing again after five years of decline, despite the recent imposition of a 10% tariff under Executive Order 14257. Analysts do not expect the tariff to have a major impact, as competing producers face similar conditions. In a bid to boost retail presence, Procafecol, which owns the Juan Valdez brand, has partnered with Green Coffee Company Holdings to expand roasted coffee sales in supermarkets and institutional outlets across North America.

Domestically, coffee consumption is projected to remain unchanged at 2.2 million bags through 2026. Although Colombia’s economy is expected to grow by 2.6% in 2025 and inflation is forecast to ease to 4.1%, high coffee prices are suppressing consumption growth. Soluble and low-cost blends still dominate local preferences, and with per capita consumption at just 3.08 kg, Colombia trails behind other Latin American coffee producers where annual consumption exceeds 6 kg per person. Fedecafe continues its efforts to shift this dynamic through its long-running national campaign “Busca el Triángulo de la Calidad – Café de Colombia,” which certifies products made from 100% Colombian beans. As of this year, over 850 brands carry the trademark triangle.

To meet internal demand amid falling production, coffee imports are set to rise by 34% to 1.5 million bags. These imports, mainly from Brazil, Peru, and Ecuador, are used for soluble and lower-cost blends. The bulk of imports—around 70%—are unroasted green beans, while soluble coffee accounts for 28.5%, and roasted products make up the remaining fraction.

Compliance with EU Deforestation Law

A major concern for Colombia’s coffee exporters is the European Union’s Regulation 2023/1115, which mandates deforestation-free sourcing for coffee and other commodities. With over 20% of Colombia’s coffee exports destined for Europe, compliance is critical. The deadline is December 30, 2025 for large companies and June 2026 for smallholders. To prepare producers, Fedecafe has launched a national traceability platform and is offering legal and technical training to help farms meet the new standards.

Ending stocks for the upcoming season are forecast to decline slightly to 458,000 bags. Meanwhile, Colombia’s Coffee Price Stabilization Fund—intended to compensate growers when prices fall below production costs—has not yet been triggered due to persistently strong market rates. The fund currently holds approximately COP 370 billion (about $95 million USD) in reserve. If triggered, it could help stabilize income for smallholders in future downturns.

Colombia’s coffee sector remains a complex mix of resilience and vulnerability. The country’s leadership in specialty coffee and its export partnerships continue to open global opportunities. However, producers face mounting uncertainty driven by erratic weather, labor shortages, global tariffs, and regulatory shifts. As the 2025/2026 season approaches, the industry must strike a balance between short-term gains and long-term sustainability.

Dr. Steffen Schwarz, an expert in applied coffee science, believes that a gradual yet decisive transformation is underway in Europe’s coffee preferences. Canephora beans (commonly known as Robusta) are quietly gaining ground over Arabica, which has long dominated the continent’s coffee culture. Schwarz refers to this as a “silent shift,” driven not only by economic factors but by deeper changes in how quality, taste, and function are perceived.

Dr. Schwarz is a leading figure at Coffee Consulate, an independent training and research center based in Germany. The center offers scientifically grounded programs for the coffee industry, including flexible one-day workshops and comprehensive training for professionals in cafés, hotels, bakeries, roasteries, and farms. One of its most advanced offerings is the Coffeologist program, which consists of 12 one-day workshops covering the full coffee value chain—from bean to cup. This builds on the Coffee Connoisseur course, a six-day program focused on cultivation, processing, botanical principles, origin profiles, and professional tasting.

According to Schwarz, the European Coffee Report 2023/2024 confirms a slight decline in Arabica’s market share in EU and EFTA imports, now at 59.2%, while Canephora has risen above 40%—even surpassing Arabica in countries like Italy, Portugal, and Eastern Europe.

This shift, he says, is a response to climate challenges, production efficiency, and evolving consumer behavior. Canephora offers greater resilience, higher yields, and better adaptability for farmers in regions such as Southeast Asia and West Africa. In turn, Europe is adjusting its import dynamics to align with availability.

He also highlights that modern processing techniques—such as anaerobic fermentation and sugarcane washing—have improved the sensory profile of Canephora, bringing out notes of dark chocolate, spices, and red fruit, particularly in high-altitude or hybrid varieties.

Northern markets like Germany and Scandinavia are now integrating high-quality Canephora into blends and even offering it as single-origin coffee—something that was previously rare. This is partly due to younger consumers’ preferences for stronger, fuller-bodied coffee aligned with their tastes for cold brews and energy drinks.

Schwarz raises critical questions: Should Canephora be evaluated on its own terms rather than Arabica’s standards? Will European markets pay a fair premium for quality Canephora as producing countries invest in excellence? Or will it remain trapped in a commodity model focused on quantity?

He concludes that the future of coffee in Europe won’t be decided in cupping labs alone—it will depend on how cultural, economic, and scientific frameworks evolve to embrace this silent shift.

Uganda’s coffee industry is on an upward trajectory, fueled by rising production, export volumes, and surging global prices. As one of Africa’s top coffee producers, Uganda is now set to consolidate its position in the global coffee trade, with new government initiatives, expanded cultivation, and a maturing coffee culture driving the momentum.

According to the latest USDA Coffee Annual Report, Uganda’s total coffee production for the 2025/2026 marketing year is forecast to rise to 6,875,000 60-kg bags, a 2.61% increase from the previous season. The majority of this output will come from Robusta, which continues to dominate with an 85% share, while Arabica accounts for the remaining 15%.

The 2024/2025 season already showed a healthy jump to 6,700,000 bags, up 4.69% from the previous year, thanks to improved agricultural practices, favorable weather, and the maturing of high-yielding coffee seedlings planted in recent years.

Uganda’s coffee-growing regions — including Central, Eastern, Western, and now increasingly Northern Uganda — are benefitting from favorable climates for both Robusta and Arabica varieties. Districts like Mukono, Luwero, Mount Elgon, Mbale, Kasese, and Zombo are leading production zones, with the latter rapidly emerging as a promising hub for high-altitude Arabica.

The growth in production is also backed by financial support under the Parish Development Model, which offers farmers access to low-interest loans at 6% annually with a two-year grace period. This policy has enabled smallholder farmers — who account for 85–90% of Uganda’s total coffee output — to invest in fertilizers, spraying equipment, and better crop management. In 2024, increased government funding allowed agronomists to conduct nationwide visits to offer direct field support.

Coffee farming in Uganda remains predominantly a smallholder activity, with farms ranging between 0.5 and 2.5 hectares. Intercropping coffee with bananas, beans, and shade trees helps preserve soil fertility, retain moisture, and diversify farmers’ income streams. Medium-sized estates contribute about 8–10% of national output, while large estates, mostly in central Uganda, account for 2–5%, focusing on export-grade beans.

On the trade front, Uganda’s green coffee exports are projected to rise from 6,350,000 bags in 2024/2025 to 6,530,000 bags in 2025/2026, as demand continues to grow in Europe, the United States, and new Asian markets. Europe remains Uganda’s top destination, accounting for 72% of exports in 2024, followed by the United States (7%), Morocco (6%), and growing importers like China, India, and Japan.

A significant development boosting Uganda’s coffee sector is the construction of the Inspire Africa Coffee Industrial Park in Ntungamo District. Slated to become fully operational by May 2025, the facility will process up to 10,000 metric tons of coffee annually. It aims to add value to Ugandan coffee by producing instant, drip, malt, and even coffee-based cosmetics, creating jobs and supporting the national strategy to increase coffee export revenues from 1 billion USD to 4 billion USD.

Domestic coffee consumption, while still modest compared to exports, is slowly growing. It is expected to rise from 325,000 bags in 2024/2025 to 330,000 bags in 2025/2026, driven by increasing disposable incomes, urbanization, and the spread of coffee shops in cities like Kampala. Nevertheless, producers continue to favor exports due to high international prices and stronger returns.

Uganda’s domestic coffee prices have experienced sharp increases in recent years. In 2020/2021, the average farmgate price was $1.61 per kilogram, rising steadily to $2.63 in 2023/2024. In 2024/2025, prices jumped further to $4.64 per kilogram, representing a 7.4% year-on-year increase and a 63% jump since 2020. This surge is attributed to global demand growth and supply constraints caused by droughts in Brazil and Vietnam.

However, not all developments have been smooth. In November 2024, the Ugandan government dissolved the Uganda Coffee Development Authority (UCDA) through the National Coffee Bill, transferring its responsibilities to the Ministry of Agriculture. While the restructuring is intended to improve efficiency and reduce costs, many stakeholders fear the loss of UCDA’s specialized support for farmers and exporters could affect quality control and market access. The long-term effects of this move are still unfolding.

Export dynamics are also shifting. In 2024, shipments to the United States rebounded to 19,142 metric tons, after a previous dip, while exports to China more than doubled, reaching 6,900 metric tons. These figures underscore Uganda’s expanding footprint in non-traditional markets and reflect the global appeal of its coffee, particularly in the specialty segment.

Meanwhile, ending stocks for 2024/2025 are estimated at just 269,000 bags, a relatively low level due to attractive prices that have encouraged more sales and reduced storage. Most of these stocks are held by traders and exporters rather than farmers.

As global markets continue to favor sustainably sourced, traceable coffee — and prices remain high — Uganda stands at a strategic crossroads. With a growing domestic culture, robust government backing, and emerging industrial-scale value addition, the country is poised to not only grow more coffee, but to earn more from it, too.

Honduras is witnessing a major revival in its coffee sector, with production and exports projected to rise significantly during the 2024/25 and 2025/26 marketing years. Backed by improved weather, reduced outbreaks of coffee leaf rust, and surging international coffee prices, the country is poised to reclaim its place as one of the top Arabica coffee exporters globally.

According to the latest USDA Coffee Annual Report, Honduran coffee production is forecast to reach 5.52 million 60-kilogram bags in MY 2024/25 — a 9.3% increase over the previous year. Production is expected to continue its upward trajectory, reaching 5.8 million bags in MY 2025/26. This is the strongest performance since the 2021/22 season and reflects the sector’s increasing resilience and recovery capacity.

This rebound is largely attributed to improved on-farm conditions, the adoption of disease-resistant coffee varieties like Parainema, and a significant reduction in coffee leaf rust (Hemileia vastatrix), which has historically hampered yields. In April 2024, a national survey by IHCAFE showed that 76% of sampled farms had low levels of rust, a result of persistent dry weather and proactive farm management.

Honduras’ high-altitude geography plays a crucial role in coffee quality. Around 61% of farms are located between 3,900 and 5,200 feet above sea level. Production is spread across 15 of the country’s 18 departments, with top regions including Copán, Montecillos, Comayagua, El Paraíso, and Agalta. These areas cultivate high-quality Arabica varieties such as Bourbon, Catuai, and Typica.

Alongside the production boost, coffee exports from Honduras are expected to reach 5.36 million bags in MY 2024/25, increasing to 5.5 million bags in MY 2025/26. The rise in exports has been bolstered by global supply constraints, particularly in Brazil, where climate-related issues such as drought and heatwaves have disrupted output.

This disruption in global supply, combined with stronger demand, has driven prices to new highs. As of April 2025, the average export price of Honduran coffee reached $345.82 per 60-kg bag, marking an astonishing 81% increase from the $191.34 recorded the previous year. Consequently, total export earnings surged to $1.02 billion, doubling from $507 million the year before.

The volume of export contracts also rose to 3.33 million bags, a 19% increase from the same period last year. The United States, Germany, Belgium, Italy, and Canada remained top buyers, while South Korea emerged as a growing destination thanks to a free trade agreement with Honduras.

Despite strong export momentum, domestic coffee consumption in Honduras fell by 13%, dropping from 385,000 bags in MY 2023/24 to 335,000 in MY 2024/25. The decline is attributed to inflationary pressure and a shift in consumer preference from roasted to soluble coffee, which is more affordable. However, there is growing demand from younger consumers for specialty drinks, with Keurig-style pods and machines becoming increasingly popular in supermarkets and retail stores.

Honduras is also making significant progress in the specialty and certified coffee segment. In MY 2023/24, 52% of total exports — or 2.6 million bags — were classified as differentiated coffees. These include coffees certified by Rainforest Alliance, Organic, Fair Trade, UTZ, and 4C, which cater to the rising global demand for ethical and sustainable sourcing.

Leading the specialty coffee certification share is Rainforest Alliance (43.4%), followed by Organic (24.3%) and Fair Trade/Organic (13.2%). Such coffees command premium prices and are increasingly sought after by roasters who value traceability, environmental responsibility, and social impact in addition to flavor.

The country’s dedication to specialty coffee is further reinforced through its active participation in the Cup of Excellence (COE) competition, which celebrates the finest micro-lots in the country. Honduras also maintains a Geographical Indication (GI) for Marcala Coffee, and promotes its regional identity through the collective label “Honduran Western Coffees.”

Institutional support plays a key role in the sector’s resilience. The Honduran Coffee Institute (IHCAFE) operates six research and training centers across the country, providing farmers with guidance on improved production techniques, post-harvest processing, pest management, and sustainable practices.

The government has also enacted major policy measures to support the coffee sector. In 2022, Executive Decree 352-2022 exempted all coffee products — roasted and green — from the 12% sales tax, reducing production costs and enhancing export competitiveness. IHCAFE also launched the “Renew Without Stopping Production” program, targeting the renovation of aging farms while maintaining output and supporting over 33,000 producers.

In addition, the government is implementing a long-term climate change strategy, divided into six five-year phases stretching until 2050. This plan includes climate-resilient varietals, infrastructure investments, and new harvesting technologies to mitigate the impact of extreme weather and labor shortages.

With global recognition growing and international prices reaching record levels, Honduras is well-positioned to capitalize on its natural advantages, institutional support, and commitment to quality. As global demand shifts toward traceable, sustainable, and specialty coffees, the country stands ready to strengthen its place among the world’s top Arabica exporters.

April 2025 proved to be a turbulent month for the global coffee market, as new tariff policies, shifting weather patterns, and evolving regional dynamics jolted prices and disrupted export trends. The latest Coffee Market Report from the International Coffee Organization (ICO) reveals a complex and fluctuating landscape marked by geopolitical developments, volatile price movements, and a delicate balance between bullish and bearish market forces.

The ICO Composite Indicator Price (I-CIP) averaged 335.76 US cents/lb in April 2025—a 3.5% decline from March, despite remaining 54.8% higher than its level a year ago. The market experienced a sharp dip early in the month, reaching a four-month low of 308.93 US cents/lb on April 8. This drop was triggered by the U.S. government’s unexpected announcement of new tariffs, which caused an immediate 32.59 cents/lb plunge in the index. However, markets quickly rebounded after the tariff decision was temporarily suspended for 90 days, reflecting the current volatility and sensitivity of the global coffee trade.

While prices recovered by mid-April, the market has yet to find a definitive direction. The 12-month rolling average stands at 278.20 US cents/lb, but daily price volatility and mixed futures signals suggest continued uncertainty.

Green bean exports totaled 11.64 million bags in March 2025, down 0.9% year-on-year. This marks the third consecutive month of export decline in the 2024/25 coffee year, with total green exports down 3.2% compared to the same period in 2023/24.

Arabica varieties now account for 63% of global green coffee exports, up from 59.7% a year ago. Notably, Colombian Milds surged by 25.3% to 1.33 million bags, largely driven by Colombia’s own 25.2% export increase. Other Milds also rose by 5.9%, supported by strong performances from Costa Rica, Ethiopia, and Honduras.

In contrast, exports of Brazilian Naturals fell 2.4% year-on-year, with Brazil’s output down 9.4%. Despite a 65.4% rise in Ethiopian exports mitigating some losses, the overall downturn highlights Brazil’s return to typical cyclical output levels following an exceptional harvest in 2023/24.

Robusta exports experienced a sharper 8.4% year-on-year drop to 4.55 million bags, with Brazil’s shipments plunging 83.6%—a correction after extended periods of unusually high exports in previous months.

Regional data underscores shifting dynamics in global supply:

• Africa recorded an exceptional 36.3% rise in exports to 1.58 million bags, marking the 16th straight month of growth. Ethiopia and Uganda led the expansion, supported by strong harvests and high international prices.

• Asia & Oceania posted a 6.1% rise to 4.84 million bags, with Indonesia’s exports jumping 125.4% due to base effects and favorable production cycles. Vietnam, however, saw a 4.0% decline.

• Mexico & Central America rebounded with a 15.3% increase in exports, following a prolonged downturn. Honduras and Mexico were the primary contributors.

• South America, led by Brazil, declined by 15.9%, registering its fourth consecutive month of falling exports. This marked the region’s lowest share of global exports since June 2023, now standing at just 35.7%.

The global coffee market in April was shaped by a tug-of-war between bullish and bearish pressures:

Bullish factors include:

• Adverse weather in Brazil, where Cooxupé reported high temperatures and below-average rainfall, could impact upcoming yields.

• Optimism over falling global inflation—from 5.7% in 2024 to a projected 3.6% by 2026—points to improving purchasing power and rising coffee demand.

• Coffee’s low elasticity, with a wide range of price-accessible products, continues to support steady consumption despite price shifts.

• A futures market inversion suggests short-term supply tightness, while the shrinking price gap between Colombian Milds and Other Milds points to a potential undersupply of quality beans.

Bearish factors:

• Retail price hikes linked to higher customs duties could eventually suppress demand.

• The inclusion of Vietnamese washed Arabica as a deliverable origin in the Coffee “C” futures contract may ease supply concerns, potentially pressuring prices downward.

Arabica certified stocks in New York rose 6.4% in April to 0.85 million bags, while Robusta stocks in London dropped 3.1% to 0.71 million bags. Price volatility also moderated overall, particularly in Arabicas, with the I-CIP’s volatility falling to 11.2% from 12.3% in March. However, Robusta volatility increased, highlighting continued uncertainty in that segment.

March also witnessed significant growth in value-added coffee forms:

• Soluble coffee exports rose 15.6% to 1.28 million bags, driven largely by Brazil.

• Roasted coffee exports increased by 27.3% to 82,684 bags, indicating rising demand for finished coffee products in global markets.

Despite the April turbulence, the coffee market remains robust and resilient. With global inflation expected to continue its downward trend and demand projected to rise steadily, especially in emerging economies, the long-term outlook appears cautiously optimistic. However, much hinges on weather developments in Brazil, the duration of tariff suspensions, and shifts in the futures market.

As of now, Arabicas continue to lead the market while Robustas face pressure. With the 2024/25 coffee year nearing its midpoint, the coming months will be critical in determining whether the bullish forces can overcome the headwinds of global trade politics and climate volatility.