Author: Qahwa World

Arabica coffee futures settled higher on Monday, supported by renewed supply concerns due to below-normal rainfall in Brazil. July arabica (KCN25) closed up +2.85 cents (+0.74%) after earlier rising as much as +6.20 cents (+1.61%) intraday. July robusta contracts (RMN25) were not traded due to the UK’s May Day holiday.

According to Somar Meteorologia, Brazil’s top arabica-producing region, Minas Gerais, received just 1.5 mm of rain in the week ending April 26—only 21% of the historical average. The insufficient rainfall triggered short covering among traders, lifting prices off recent lows.

Last week, arabica futures hit a 2.5-month high and robusta climbed to a 5-week high amid growing concerns about Brazil’s next crop. Rabobank forecasted that Brazil’s 2025/26 arabica harvest could fall by 13.6% year-over-year to 38.1 million bags due to drought-related impacts on flowering.

Tight robusta supply is also driving price support. Vietnam, the world’s leading robusta exporter, saw January–March shipments fall 15.3% year-over-year to 495,780 metric tons, according to data from the Vietnam Customs Department.

Supply-side pressures are building across the board. Cecafe reported that Brazil’s green coffee exports in March fell 26% from the previous year to 2.95 million bags. On January 28, Brazil’s crop agency Conab projected a 4.4% decline in the 2025/26 coffee crop to a three-year low of 51.81 million bags. It also revised the 2024 crop estimate down 1.1% to 54.2 million bags from the earlier figure of 54.8 million.

At the same time, demand-side concerns are tempering bullish sentiment. Major global importers—including Starbucks, Hershey, and Mondelez International—warned that the U.S. baseline 10% tariff on imports would likely raise consumer prices and dampen demand.

Inventory signals are mixed. Last Wednesday, ICE-monitored robusta inventories fell to a four-month low of 4,225 lots, while ICE-monitored arabica inventories rose to a 2.5-month high of 832,133 bags as of Monday.

Robusta markets remain supported by production setbacks in Vietnam. The country’s 2023/24 crop fell by 20% to 1.472 million metric tons—its smallest in four years—due to drought. In addition, Vietnam’s 2024 coffee exports dropped 17.1% year-over-year, and its Coffee and Cocoa Association recently cut its 2024/25 output estimate from 28 million to 26.5 million bags.

Meanwhile, Rabobank expects Brazil’s 2025/26 robusta production to increase by 7.3% to a record 24.7 million bags. Despite this, Conab reported in February that Brazil’s total 2024 coffee exports rose by 28.8% year-over-year to a record 50.5 million bags. In contrast, the ICO reported a 12.4% year-over-year decline in global coffee exports in December, with October–December exports down 0.8%.

The USDA’s December biannual report presents a mixed picture: global coffee production in 2024/25 is projected to rise 4.0% to 174.86 million bags, including a 1.5% increase in arabica and a 7.5% jump in robusta. However, ending stocks are forecasted to fall 6.6% to a 25-year low of 20.87 million bags.

Looking further ahead, Volcafe recently cut its forecast for Brazil’s 2025/26 arabica crop to 34.4 million bags, down 11 million from earlier estimates following extensive drought damage. The firm anticipates a global arabica deficit of 8.5 million bags—greater than the 5.5 million bag shortfall forecasted for 2024/25—marking the fifth consecutive year of global deficits.

 Market Close Update – May 5, 2025:
Arabica coffee futures closed Monday at +2.85 cents (+0.74%), moderating after stronger gains earlier in the session. The price movement followed weather-driven buying activity. ICE-monitored arabica stocks increased to 832,133 bags, the highest level in 2.5 months, while robusta trading remained closed for the UK holiday.

Cathy Smith has spent years ducking into Starbucks cafés for quick meetings, moments of reflection, or simply a reliable cup of coffee. Her usual order? An Americano with a splash of 2% milk. The stores, for her, have long served as a personal “third place”—a cozy space between home and work.

“I can’t tell you how many decades Starbucks has been like my personal third place,” Smith says. “I knew I could go into a Starbucks, grab a great cup of coffee, sit down at a table, and do whatever I needed to.”

But in recent years, even Smith noticed a drift from the essence that once made Starbucks so inviting—declining service quality, less welcoming cafés, and an erosion of the brand’s once-iconic atmosphere. Now, as the company’s new Chief Financial Officer, she has a front-row seat—and a leadership role—in bringing that magic back.

Smith joins Starbucks amid a challenging chapter. The coffee giant is in the middle of a turnaround led by CEO Brian Niccol, who joined in late 2024 after a celebrated run at Chipotle. Starbucks has posted four straight quarters of same-store sales declines, and Wall Street is bracing for another. More critically, the brand has struggled to hold on to its emotional connection with customers.

Niccol has been quick to act. Under his leadership, Starbucks has trimmed 30% of its menu—cutting items like doughnuts and certain Frappuccinos—to simplify operations and accelerate service. He has also eliminated 1,100 corporate positions and announced plans to improve the mobile ordering system, which has often created bottlenecks behind the counter.

“We want to be a welcoming coffeehouse where people gather and we serve the finest coffee handcrafted by our skilled baristas,” Niccol recently told analysts.

That’s where Smith comes in.

As CFO, she will guide financial decisions that determine which operational changes and investments make sense—and which can scale effectively. Her résumé includes leading financial strategy during major brand turnarounds at Target and Nordstrom. At Target, she helped steer one of the most impressive retail comebacks in modern history. She joined in 2015, when the brand had lost momentum, and helped it find its footing again. Before accepting the job, she visited 65 Target stores across 10 states with her family to better understand the customer experience.

“All brands drift over time, and I have pattern recognition,” Smith says. “I’ve seen this with a number of brands, and the great ones recapture what made them great.”

At Nordstrom, she helped the company through its transition to private ownership. At other companies—Walmart, GameStop, Express Scripts, Textron—she honed her ability to match operational priorities with smart, scalable financial strategies.

Now, with Starbucks, she plans to apply that same discipline.

Some of the turnaround moves require little money: baristas now write personal messages on customers’ cups, and the dress code has been loosened. But other initiatives carry a higher price tag—such as expanded seating areas, additional power outlets, store renovations, and dedicated shelving for mobile pickup orders.

Smith, an MBA graduate of the University of Southern California, isn’t opposed to risk—but she insists on precision. “All the great retailers test everything,” she says. “It’s not about avoiding risk. It’s about taking calculated, informed steps.”

She brings another valuable asset: credibility with Wall Street. In 2017, when Target CEO Brian Cornell revealed a $7 billion reinvestment strategy to refresh outdated stores and overhaul e-commerce, investors panicked and sent the stock tumbling. But Smith was a calm, clear voice throughout the rough period—and the strategy eventually worked.

At Starbucks, she’s already preparing to take on that communicator role. In her public debut as CFO on the upcoming earnings call, she’ll be tasked with reassuring investors that the strategy is sound—and that performance will follow.

“One data point does not make a trend,” Smith says. “We’ll start to string together two quarters of strong results, then three quarters, and by the time we get to the fifth quarter, Wall Street will say, ‘Okay, I believe you,’ and we’ll start to see a different outcome in our stock.”

Starbucks shares have dropped 34% from their 2021 high. The urgency is real—and Smith feels it personally. Since joining the company, she has toured the roasting plant near Seattle, visited the distribution center, spent time at the headquarters, and plans to work behind the counter as a barista to better understand the frontline experience.

“When you’re in a turnaround, you have to move urgently,” she says.

That sense of urgency is shared by investors and leadership alike—but also by Smith as a loyal customer.

“When the board called and asked me if I was interested, it was an immediate yes,” she says. “Because I see where the brand is today. It should be the Starbucks I remember—and it can be so much more.”

Victoria Arduino, the renowned Italian manufacturer of professional espresso machines known for their distinctive design and high performance, is launching a new regional tour across the Middle East — shining a spotlight on its revolutionary grinder, Mythos.

Since its original debut in 2013, Mythos has redefined grinding in the specialty coffee industry. It was the first grinder specifically designed by coffee specialists to shift the industry’s focus from grinding speed to extraction quality. Now, in its latest evolution, Mythos has once again raised the bar — offering unprecedented levels of precision, consistency, and user experience, all wrapped in an elegant and functional design.

To showcase this innovation, Victoria Arduino is organizing a dedicated Mythos Tour in the Middle East. The tour is designed for coffee professionals, baristas, and café owners who want to discover how to maximize their workflow, quality, and customer satisfaction using this industry-leading grinder.

Tour Schedule:

• May 15 – Point 7 Coffee, Fujairah (UAE), 4:00–7:00 PM

• May 16 – Baitna Café, Sharjah (UAE), 4:00–7:00 PM

• May 19 – CMI, Muscat (Oman), 4:00–7:00 PM

During each stop of the tour, participants will take part in a fully interactive workshop led by Antonio Orria, Coffee Beverage & Community Expert at Simonelli Group Middle East. Attendees will get hands-on experience with Mythos, explore its most powerful features, and gain valuable tips to apply directly in their café or roastery setting.

Notably, Mythos is the official grinder of the World Barista Championship, a testament to its advanced technology and unmatched grinding consistency. Its intuitive interface and ergonomic design make it not only highly accurate but also easy and fast to use — a key advantage in high-demand environments.

To stay informed about future events and product updates from Victoria Arduino, visit www.victoriaarduino.com or follow the brand on Instagram at @victoriaarduinoofficial.

In a bold move to expand its footprint across the Middle East and North Africa, Drinkit—the digital-first coffee chain—has officially announced the launch of its franchising program. The announcement was made by Katerina Borodich, CEO of Drinkit UAE, who has been at the helm of the company’s rapid growth in the region.

She said the decision comes after more than two years of success in Dubai, where Drinkit has already opened seven locations in collaboration with leading developers such as Emaar, Majid Al Futtaim, Wasl Group, and Al-Futtaim. “Our goal is to make high-quality coffee more accessible, using our digital-first model to enhance customer convenience and operational efficiency,” Borodich explained. “We’re looking for ambitious partners—whether seasoned operators or passionate entrepreneurs—who are ready to build something extraordinary with us.”

The franchising model aims to capitalize on Drinkit’s proven concept of smart retail and app-based ordering, which has resonated strongly with consumers in the UAE. As regional demand for specialty and on-the-go coffee continues to grow, Drinkit sees this as the ideal moment to expand into new markets through strategic partnerships.

Interested parties can learn more through the Drinkit website or contact the company directly via email at [email protected]. Katerina Borodich and co-founder Dmitry Lazarenko are personally involved in supporting the franchise journey.

With its unique blend of technology, taste, and entrepreneurial spirit, Drinkit is poised to become one of the region’s most dynamic coffee chains.

Global coffee markets closed the week with modest gains, supported by ongoing supply concerns in Brazil and Vietnam, although prices remained below the highs recorded earlier in the week.

On Friday, July arabica futures (KCN25) rose by 0.75 cents (+0.19%) while July ICE robusta futures (RMN25) jumped by $165 (+3.22%). The earlier surge in the week was fueled by Rabobank’s forecast of a sharp decline in Brazil’s 2025/26 arabica crop, down 13.6% year-on-year to 38.1 million bags due to prolonged drought in key growing regions.

Robusta prices continued to receive upward support from shrinking supplies in Vietnam, the world’s leading robusta producer. Data from the Vietnam Customs Department revealed a 15.3% year-on-year drop in coffee exports for the first quarter of 2025, totaling 495,780 metric tons.

Similarly, Brazil’s export data from Cecafe showed a 26% year-on-year fall in green coffee shipments for March, totaling 2.95 million bags. Brazil’s national crop agency, Conab, expects the country’s 2025/26 total coffee crop to decline by 4.4% to a three-year low of 51.81 million bags. This follows a downward revision of its 2024 crop forecast to 54.2 million bags.

While drought has constrained output, recent rains have improved soil moisture and could help the next harvest. Somar Meteorologia reported that Minas Gerais—Brazil’s largest arabica-producing region—received 38.7 mm of rain in the week ending April 19, almost five times the historical average.

Vietnam’s 2023/24 robusta crop shrank by 20% to 1.472 million metric tons, the lowest in four years. Its coffee exports in 2024 fell 17.1% to 1.35 million metric tons. The Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association also cut its 2024/25 production forecast to 26.5 million bags from an earlier estimate of 28 million.

Conversely, Rabobank expects Brazil’s 2025/26 robusta crop to increase by 7.3% to a record 24.7 million bags, slightly easing global supply tensions.

Despite tight supply, demand-side pressures are weighing on the market. Large importers including Starbucks, Hershey, and Mondelez International have warned that the new 10% U.S. import tariff will increase costs and hurt sales volumes.

Inventory data showed mixed trends. ICE-monitored robusta stocks dropped to a four-month low of 4,225 lots midweek, while arabica stocks climbed to a 2.5-month high of 828,119 bags by Friday.

The USDA’s December 2024 report painted a complex picture. While world coffee production in 2024/25 is expected to rise by 4% to 174.855 million bags, global ending stocks are forecasted to drop by 6.6% to a 25-year low of 20.867 million bags. Arabica output is expected to grow modestly by 1.5% while robusta production could rise by 7.5%.

For Brazil, the USDA revised down its 2024/25 forecast to 66.4 million metric tons, with ending stocks falling by 26% year-on-year to 1.2 million bags.

Looking ahead, Volcafe has downgraded its estimate for Brazil’s 2025/26 arabica crop to 34.4 million bags—down 11 million from earlier projections—after a crop tour confirmed significant drought damage. The firm now expects a global arabica deficit of 8.5 million bags for 2025/26, marking the fifth consecutive year of shortages.

Coffee markets remain on edge, caught between tightening global supplies and looming economic challenges. Weather volatility, production declines, trade dynamics, and tariff impacts are all factors that will continue shaping price trends in the months ahead.

Coffee prices continued their upward momentum this week, fueled by mounting concerns over shrinking supply from Brazil and Vietnam—two of the world’s leading coffee producers. On Friday, July arabica futures (KCN25) closed up 0.19% at +0.75 cents, while July robusta (RMN25) surged by 3.22% (+165 points), capping a volatile but overall bullish trading week.

Earlier in the week, arabica prices reached a 2.5-month high, and robusta hit a 5-week peak following a sharp downgrade in Brazil’s crop forecast. Rabobank projected that Brazil’s 2025/26 arabica harvest will fall by 13.6% year-over-year to 38.1 million bags, citing prolonged drought that disrupted flowering in key coffee-growing regions.

Meanwhile, robusta prices have been propped up by dwindling exports from Vietnam. The Vietnam Customs Department reported a 15.3% year-over-year drop in Q1 exports, totaling just 495,780 metric tons—tightening supply in a market already under pressure.

Additional bearish signals came from Brazil’s export data. Cecafe announced that green coffee exports fell 26% year-over-year in March to 2.95 million bags. Separately, Brazil’s crop agency Conab lowered its 2025/26 total coffee production forecast by 4.4% to 51.81 million bags, the lowest in three years. It also revised its 2024 estimate downward to 54.2 million bags from 54.8 million.

Despite those figures, recent rainfall in Brazil may ease some production concerns. Weather service Somar Meteorologia reported that Minas Gerais, Brazil’s main arabica region, received 38.7 mm of rain in the week ending April 19—an astonishing 490% of the historical average. This rainfall could improve flowering conditions and potentially stabilize yields.

On the demand side, however, headwinds are growing. Major global brands like Starbucks, Hershey, and Mondelez International warned that new U.S. tariffs on imports—starting at 10%—will likely raise product costs and hurt consumer demand.

Inventory data remains mixed. As of Wednesday, ICE-monitored robusta inventories dropped to a four-month low of 4,225 lots, indicating tight supply. In contrast, arabica inventories rose to a 2.5-month high of 828,119 bags by Friday.

Drought conditions in Vietnam continue to weigh heavily on robusta output. The 2023/24 crop fell by 20% to 1.472 million metric tons—the smallest in four years. Vietnam’s 2024 exports dropped 17.1% year-over-year to 1.35 million metric tons. Furthermore, the Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association lowered its 2024/25 production outlook to 26.5 million bags from a prior estimate of 28 million.

Meanwhile, Rabobank projects that Brazil’s 2025/26 robusta output will rise by 7.3% year-over-year to a record 24.7 million bags—offsetting some of Vietnam’s losses.

Global export trends present a mixed picture. While Brazil’s 2024 exports hit a record 50.5 million bags—up 28.8% from the previous year—the International Coffee Organization (ICO) reported a 12.4% decline in global exports for December, totaling 10.73 million bags. Exports for Q4 2024 declined by 0.8% to 32.25 million bags.

According to the USDA’s biannual report, global coffee production in 2024/25 is expected to rise by 4.0% to 174.86 million bags. Arabica output is projected to grow by 1.5%, and robusta by 7.5%. However, ending stocks are forecasted to decline by 6.6%, reaching a 25-year low of 20.87 million bags—down from 22.35 million in 2023/24.

Brazil’s 2024/25 production outlook was also lowered by the USDA to 66.4 million metric tons, down from its earlier forecast of 69.9 MMT. End-of-season inventories are expected to fall 26% year-over-year to just 1.2 million bags.

Looking ahead, Volcafe has revised its Brazil arabica forecast for the 2025/26 season down to 34.4 million bags—11 million bags lower than September projections—following a damaging crop tour. The company anticipates a global arabica deficit of 8.5 million bags for 2025/26, widening from a 5.5 million bag shortfall in 2024/25. If realized, this would mark the fifth consecutive year of arabica supply deficits.

Mushroom coffee is gaining popularity as a health-conscious alternative to traditional coffee, offering a range of potential benefits such as improved focus, better sleep, and immune system support.

According to Fox News, the trend is attracting attention not only for its earthy flavor but also for its reported adaptogenic properties. These properties come from medicinal mushrooms like chaga, lion’s mane, reishi, cordyceps, king trumpet, and turkey tail—varieties believed to help the body manage stress and support overall wellness.

While mushroom coffee typically contains caffeine, it often has only about half the amount found in a standard cup of coffee, making it a gentler option for those looking to reduce their intake.

Fox News anchor Dana Perino shared in a recent segment that she drinks mushroom coffee daily. She began using it about a year ago to replace her English breakfast tea. Despite not enjoying the taste of regular coffee, she said she appreciates the aroma of mushroom coffee and enjoys it with a splash of almond milk.

Perino rated the beverage “10 out of 10” during a tasting session with colleagues, though others had mixed reactions. “It kind of grows on you,” one said, while another described it as “mushroom soup.”

In an interview with Fox News Digital, registered dietitian Ilana Muhlstein noted that many of the mushrooms used in these blends are grown in extremely cold climates like Siberia and northern Canada. These harsh conditions stimulate the production of antioxidants, which may explain the mushrooms’ health-supporting qualities.

According to Fox News reporting, adaptogenic mushrooms may help regulate metabolism, improve mood, reduce inflammation, and even slow aging due to their high antioxidant content. While scientific studies continue, early findings and anecdotal experiences suggest promising effects.

For those looking for a new wellness habit, mushroom coffee might just be the earthy, energizing addition to their morning routine.

Note: Always consult with a healthcare professional before making significant changes to your diet or wellness routine.