Author: Qahwa World

Arabica Strengthens Its Market Dominance as Robusta Declines

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The Global Coffee Market Report for February 2025, published by the International Coffee Organization (ICO), reveals a major shift in global coffee exports. Arabica coffee has gained a larger market share, while Robusta faces a sharp decline in exports.

Historic Decline in Robusta Exports

According to the report, Arabica now accounts for 65.4% of total green coffee exports, up from 60.5% in the previous year. This shift is primarily due to the continuous drop in Robusta exports, particularly from Vietnam, the world’s largest producer of this variety.

Vietnam’s Robusta exports plunged by 43.8% in January 2025, marking the lowest January export level in six years. The ICO attributes this decline to supply shortages, financing constraints, and logistical challenges affecting shipments.

Global Coffee Prices Reach Record Highs

This decline in Robusta supply comes at a time when global coffee prices are reaching unprecedented levels. The ICO Composite Indicator Price (I-CIP) surged to 354.32 US cents per pound in February 2025, reflecting a 14.3% increase from January, making it the highest monthly average on record.

The report also highlights significant price increases across different coffee categories:

  • Colombian Milds rose 16.7% to 410.64 US cents per pound.
  • Brazilian Naturals increased by 18.3% to 401.10 US cents per pound.
  • Robusta prices climbed 7.2% to 263.08 US cents per pound, despite supply challenges.

The ICO also noted rising market volatility, driven by economic uncertainty, higher trade financing costs, and shifting demand patterns.

The Impact of Robusta’s Decline on the Global Coffee Market

The sharp decline in Robusta exports has forced coffee buyers to reevaluate their sourcing strategies, leading to greater dependence on Arabica. As a result:

  • Arabica producers are experiencing stronger demand, driving prices even higher.
  • Roasters may have to absorb higher costs, especially for blends that traditionally rely on Robusta.
  • Consumers may see higher prices for espresso and instant coffee, both of which heavily depend on Robusta.

Meanwhile, some coffee-producing countries outside Vietnam, such as Indonesia and Uganda, have ramped up Robusta exports in an effort to compensate for the shortfall. However, experts warn that these increases may not be sufficient to fully offset Vietnam’s declining supply, keeping the market under sustained pressure.

What’s Next for the Global Coffee Industry?

As Arabica’s dominance continues to grow and Robusta faces long-term supply risks, the coffee industry is entering a new phase of market realignment. Analysts are closely watching key developments, including:

  • Will Vietnam recover its Robusta exports, or will other nations fill the gap?
  • How will coffee roasters adjust their strategies in response to these changes?
  • Could Arabica’s growing dominance lead to higher prices for premium coffee?

The global coffee market stands at a critical juncture, with new trade patterns emerging and prices reaching historic highs. The coming months will be crucial in determining the long-term impact of these shifts.

Africa’s Coffee Exports Surge While Asia’s Market Share Declines

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The Global Coffee Market Report for February 2025, published by the International Coffee Organization (ICO), has revealed significant shifts in global coffee exports. While Africa has witnessed remarkable growth in its coffee shipments, Asia and Oceania have experienced a sharp decline.

According to the report, Africa’s coffee exports grew by 7.1% in January 2025, marking the highest January shipment volume since 1997. This growth was primarily driven by an increase in exports from Uganda and Côte d’Ivoire, which surged by 28.1%, helping to offset the global supply shortfall caused by declining Asian shipments.

In contrast, coffee exports from Asia and Oceania dropped by 31.9% during the same period, primarily due to a steep 43.8% decline in Vietnam’s coffee shipments—the lowest January export volume for Vietnam in six years. The Vietnamese coffee sector continues to struggle with domestic supply shortages and logistical challenges hindering exports.

Global Coffee Prices Reach Record Highs

These market shifts come at a time when global coffee prices are soaring to unprecedented levels. The ICO Composite Indicator Price (I-CIP) reached 354.32 US cents per pound in February 2025, reflecting a 14.3% increase from January—the highest monthly average on record.

The report attributes this sharp price surge to several factors, including:

  • A significant decline in Robusta exports, leading to supply shortages.
  • Tighter trade financing and credit constraints, reducing purchasing power.
  • Higher margin requirements in the coffee futures market, forcing traders to adjust their positions.
  • Economic uncertainty in major consuming markets, such as the United States and the European Union, impacting buying behavior.

Africa Strengthens Its Position in the Global Coffee Trade

With Asian exports declining, African coffee producers are gaining greater influence in the global market. Uganda and Côte d’Ivoire—two of Africa’s largest Robusta coffee exporters—have seen increased demand for their beans as buyers seek alternative supply sources to mitigate Vietnam’s shortages.

Experts predict that Africa’s share of global coffee exports will continue to grow, opening up new investment opportunities and trade partnerships across the region.

Where is the Global Coffee Market Heading?

These shifts in supply dynamics raise crucial questions about the future of coffee trade:

  • Can Vietnam reclaim its lost market share, or will Africa continue to rise as a key supplier?
  • How will coffee prices respond to these changes in the coming months?
  • Will buyers adjust their sourcing strategies to adapt to this new reality?

With Arabica gaining more market share and Africa’s role expanding, the global coffee industry stands at a pivotal moment in its history.

Victoria Arduino Welcomes You to the Experience Lab in Melbourne for Exclusive Events!

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Victoria Arduino, the leading Italian brand in high-performance professional espresso machines, invites coffee professionals and enthusiasts to its Experience Lab in Melbourne during the Melbourne International Coffee Expo (MICE). This special off-show event series will feature exciting discussions and hands-on sessions with Mikael Jasin, the 2024 World Barista Champion and Victoria Arduino Global Ambassador, along with key industry experts.

An Immersive Coffee Experience

From March 20 to 21, the Victoria Arduino Experience Lab (Melbourne, Suite 1-380 City Road, Southbank VIC 3006) will host a variety of exclusive events tailored for coffee chains, roasters, and baristas. Attendees will have the opportunity to engage with Mikael Jasin, explore the latest coffee trends, and discover innovative solutions to elevate their businesses.

Victoria Arduino’s Experience Lab is designed to be an interactive space where visitors can explore the brand’s latest innovations while engaging in insightful discussions and networking opportunities.

Event Schedule

Thursday, March 20 – Victoria Arduino Experience Lab, Melbourne (37 Cecil Street – Cnr City Road – Southbank 3006)

  • 09:30 AM | Lecture: “Building a Successful Café/Brand” by Mikael Jasin
    Mikael Jasin shares expert strategies on transforming a café into a recognizable and sustainable brand. A must-attend session for those looking to redefine their business.

  • 1:00 PM – 3:00 PM | Meet & Greet with Mikael Jasin
    An exclusive opportunity to meet the World Barista Champion, exchange ideas, and gain inspiration.

  • 4:00 PM – 6:00 PM | Victoria Arduino Happy Hour
    Discover how coffee can enhance experiences throughout the day, from morning brews to evening aperitivo. This session will feature tastings and coffee-based cocktails, showcasing Victoria Arduino’s innovative technologies.

Friday, March 21 – Victoria Arduino Experience Lab, Melbourne (37 Cecil Street – Cnr City Road – Southbank 3006)

  • 09:30 AM | Masterclass on Perfect Extraction with Mikael Jasin
    Learn the secrets to maximizing flavors using the Black Eagle Maverick and PureBrew+, two groundbreaking technologies designed to enhance cup quality and elevate the coffee experience.

  • 11:30 AM | Green Coffee Seminar
    A deep dive into “Green Coffee Pricing and How Investing in Agriculture Can Help Reduce Market Volatility,” led by SUCAFINA, a global leader in coffee trading. A Q&A session will follow for further discussion.

  • 1:00 PM – 3:00 PM | Meet & Greet with Mikael Jasin
    Another opportunity to meet Mikael Jasin, discuss industry trends, and gain exclusive insights.

  • 4:00 PM – 6:00 PM | Victoria Arduino Happy Hour
    Experience how cutting-edge coffee technology is transforming coffee enjoyment from morning to night, with an evening of tastings and signature coffee-based cocktails.

Stay Updated

For more details on Victoria Arduino’s latest events and news, visit www.victoriaarduino.com and follow @victoriaarduinoofficial and @victoriaarduino_au on Instagram.

Did the European Union Really Classify Coffee as “Harmful” to Health?

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Popular media outlets have recently raised concerns about a potential EU ban on coffee, following claims that the European Commission labeled caffeine as hazardous for human consumption.

Various news reports and widely shared social media posts have alleged that the EU categorized coffee as dangerous to human health. The right-wing British channel GB News accused “meddling bureaucrats in Brussels” of deeming coffee unsafe. Similarly, The Telegraph reported that the EU described coffee as dangerous because caffeine “harms human health when consumed,” sparking fears of an impending ban across EU member states.

An article from NDTV World even claimed that the EU had completely banned caffeine and tried to explain the rationale behind such a move. Reports from Global Guido, The Daily Mail, and The Daily Express also fueled resentment against the EU, suggesting it was preparing the ground to ban coffee.

These articles vaguely referenced a report on the use of caffeine in pesticides, without providing clear sources or links.

What is the Truth Behind the EU’s Stance on Coffee?

A detailed search reveals an article published by The Independent, referring to a request by the French company Progarin to use caffeine as a pesticide on cabbage, potatoes, and other crops.

Further research uncovered a decision issued by the European Commission in October 2024 in response to Progarin’s request to approve caffeine as “a basic substance for plant protection, an insecticide for cabbage, potatoes, boxwood plants, and a molluscicide for various crops.”

Ultimately, the Commission rejected this request based on scientific advice from the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA). In its decision, the Commission stated that “caffeine is harmful to humans if ingested,” highlighting its adverse health effects.

The Commission noted, “Regarding human health, EFSA observed adverse effects of caffeine on the cardiovascular system, hydration, body temperature in adults, as well as impacts on the central nervous system (including sleep, anxiety, and behavioral changes) in adults and children, and negative effects on birth weight among pregnant women.”

Additionally, the Commission stated, “Due to a lack of data, EFSA could not complete the assessment of non-dietary risks to operators, workers, bystanders, and residents.”

However, claiming that the EU classified coffee itself as harmful is misleading. The EU’s decision clearly refers to high doses of pure caffeine, not the typical daily cup of coffee.

According to EFSA’s caffeine fact sheet, an average cup of filtered coffee contains approximately 90 mg of caffeine, espresso 80 mg, and black tea around 50 mg. The consumption of up to 400 mg of caffeine daily does not pose safety concerns for healthy adults.

EFSA also states that a single dose of up to 200 mg of caffeine from all sources does not cause problems for healthy adults.

According to EFSA, adverse effects of caffeine typically begin after consuming five or six cups of coffee per day, potentially affecting short-term sleep quality and mental health, causing long-term cardiovascular issues, and negatively impacting fetal development in pregnant women.

EFSA also emphasizes that safe adult doses are applicable to children as well, given that the caffeine metabolism rate in children and adolescents matches or exceeds that of adults.

Thus, despite misleading headlines, the EU has not banned caffeine in beverages, and the regular consumption of coffee and tea throughout the day remains completely safe.

 

Coffee Prices Hit Record Highs Amid Volatile Market Conditions and Global Export Shifts

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Global coffee markets witnessed significant fluctuations in February 2025, with the International Coffee Organization’s Composite Indicator Price (I-CIP) achieving an unprecedented high of 354.32 US cents/lb, representing a 14.3% increase from January and surpassing the historical peak set in March 1977. This remarkable rise underscores the intense volatility and economic factors influencing the coffee sector.

The substantial rise in coffee prices was driven primarily by the Colombian Milds and Other Milds categories, which surged by 16.7% and 15.5%, respectively, reaching 410.64 and 409.48 cents/lb. Brazilian Naturals also saw an 18.3% increase to 401.10 cents/lb, while Robusta prices rose modestly by 7.2% to 263.08 cents/lb. The price differentials exhibited notable volatility, with the Colombian Milds–Other Milds differential reversing from negative territory to positive territory, indicating shifting market preferences and supply dynamics.

Global green bean exports showed a pronounced contraction of 14.2%, totalling 9.72 million bags in January 2025, marking the third consecutive monthly decline. Notably, Robusta exports plummeted by 27.5%, driven by a substantial 43.8% drop in Vietnam’s exports due to domestic supply constraints and historical export anomalies from the previous year.

In contrast, Africa demonstrated robust performance, with exports growing 7.1%, led by Côte d’Ivoire and Uganda, who collectively increased shipments by 28.1%. This growth offset some of Vietnam’s shortfalls. Meanwhile, exports from Asia & Oceania sharply declined by 31.9%, largely attributed to Vietnam’s reduced export volumes, though Indonesia partially mitigated this decline with a 47.4% increase in shipments.

Mexico and Central America collectively experienced a positive shift, with exports increasing by 10.9%. Costa Rica, Guatemala, Honduras, and Nicaragua played pivotal roles in this upturn. However, Mexico saw an export reduction of 13.6%, largely linked to rising soluble coffee production, diverting green beans from international markets.

South America reported a 4.2% reduction in exports due to Peru’s dramatic 58.9% decline, attributed to depleted stock levels following heightened demand and supply pressures from Ethiopia earlier in the year.

Export data also revealed changes by coffee form, with soluble coffee exports decreasing by 5.2%, while roasted coffee exports rose slightly by 1.4%.

Several factors underpinned the volatility seen in February, including economic uncertainties arising from negative business and consumer sentiment reports from the US and EU. Increased margin requirements imposed by ICE on Arabica futures contracts further pressured traders, prompting position liquidations and market corrections. Moreover, rising US tariffs and financial constraints due to trader liquidity issues led to diminished market purchasing power, notably illustrated by the bankruptcies of Brazilian traders Atlântica Exportação e Importação SA and Cafebras Comércio de Cafés do Brasil SA.

Preliminary forecasts for Vietnam’s 2024/25 harvest indicate an improved outlook, with a projected 10% production increase, offering some relief to the global supply concerns exacerbated by previous shortages and adverse weather conditions. Additionally, the expected transition from a strong El Niño to La Niña conditions could stabilize supply dynamics further in the coming months.

The market shifts observed underscore the interconnectedness and complexity of global coffee trade dynamics, highlighting how intertwined economic, climatic, and regional factors impact pricing, supply, and market stability.

Stay informed on ongoing developments and explore the comprehensive analysis of global coffee trends and forecasts for the coming months.

The New York Times Yemeni Cafes Grow in Popularity During Ramadan

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The New York Times published an extensive report written by Luke Fortney on March 10, 2025, in which he reviews the rise of Yemeni coffeehouses across the U.S., particularly their booming appeal during Ramadan as vibrant, alcohol-free spaces for late-night gatherings.

On a bustling Saturday night in Brooklyn, Qahwah House—a Yemeni cafe chain with 26 locations nationwide—was overflowing with customers well past 11 p.m. Students huddled over spiced coffee, friends toasted with tea after dinner, and staff scrambled to manage crowds at its newly opened Bay Ridge branch. During Ramadan, such cafes extend hours until 3 a.m., catering to patrons breaking their fasts and seeking community long after sunset.

“It’s not just coffee—it’s an experience,” said Ibrahim Alhasbani, founder of Qahwah House, whose family has cultivated Yemeni coffee for centuries. His cafes, along with chains like Haraz Coffee House and Delah Coffee, reflect a cultural shift: immigrants are reshaping U.S. cafe culture by prioritizing inclusive, late-night spaces that bypass alcohol.

The trend began in cities like Dearborn, Michigan, home to a large Arab-American population, and has since spread to New York, Texas, and California. Mokhtar Alkhanshali, a coffee historian, likened the movement to Vietnamese nail salons or Cambodian doughnut shops—immigrant-driven niches that evolve into national phenomena.

During Ramadan, the demand peaks. “If we say 3 a.m., that means 4,” Alhasbani joked, noting patrons linger over cardamom-infused brews and honey-drenched pastries. For many Muslims, these cafes fill a void. “Where else could we go?” said Mariam Elhabashy, a Qahwah House regular.

While initially catering to Muslim communities, the cafes now attract diverse crowds. In San Francisco, Delah Coffee’s late hours surprised non-Muslim patrons. “We opened a whole new world,” said co-owner Omar Jahamee. Similarly, Arwa Yemeni Coffee in Texas draws mixed crowds sipping Adeni chai past midnight.

As Yemeni cafes expand, they offer more than caffeine—a testament to tradition, resilience, and the universal need for connection. “This isn’t a moment,” Alkhanshali said. “It’s a movement.”

JDE Peet’s Repurchases Over 1.2 Million Shares Under EUR 250 Million Buyback Programme

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JDE Peet’s (EURONEXT: JDEP), the world’s largest pure-play coffee and tea company, has repurchased a total of 1,284,361 ordinary shares between March 3 and March 7, 2025. The average price per share was EUR 18.25, amounting to an overall investment of EUR 23.4 million.

This share buyback is part of the company’s previously announced EUR 250 million buyback programme initiated on March 3, 2025. JDE Peet’s intends to reduce its capital by cancelling the majority of these shares, with a small portion reserved for obligations related to share-based remuneration.

The buyback programme, which reflects the company’s strong confidence in its long-term growth prospects and robust cash flow capabilities, was announced following the release of its full-year 2024 results on February 26, 2025. The initiative is part of a larger, multi-year strategy that will see up to EUR 1 billion returned to shareholders, with EUR 250 million specifically designated for buybacks in 2025.

An intermediary is executing the programme to ensure compliance with the EU Market Abuse Regulation, allowing transactions during both open and closed trading periods.

JDE Peet’s will continue providing regular updates on the buyback programme’s progress through official statements and dedicated sections of its corporate website.

The Chemistry of Coffee: The Secret Behind the Taste and Aroma in Your Cup

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Did you know that coffee beans contain over 1,000 chemical compounds that shape their flavors, aromas, and overall body? From the sugars that caramelize during roasting to the acids that define its acidity, coffee is a complex brew of science and art.

Renowned coffee expert George Okot, a Q Grader, Coffee Trainer, and Global Coffee Educator, highlights the importance of understanding coffee chemistry, which involves compounds like caffeine, chlorogenic acids, and volatile compounds that contribute to coffee’s taste, aroma, and effects.

Key Chemical Components

  1. Caffeine: A powerful purine alkaloid that stimulates the central nervous system, giving coffee its well-known energizing effects.
  2. Chlorogenic Acids (CGA): A group of antioxidants responsible for coffee’s bitterness and health benefits.
  3. Trigonelline: This compound breaks down into pyridines during roasting, adding to coffee’s sweet and earthy taste.
  4. Quinic Acid: This acid contributes to coffee’s acidity, influencing its crispness.
  5. Volatile Compounds: These create the rich aroma of coffee, with over 800 different compounds contributing to unique flavor profiles.
  6. Lipids: Present in coffee oils, these fats contribute to the mouthfeel and smooth texture, particularly in Arabica beans.
  7. Carbohydrates & Proteins: During roasting, carbohydrates break down into sugars, adding to coffee’s sweetness, while proteins and amino acids undergo the Maillard reaction, creating nutty, toasted flavors.

Chemical Transformations in Coffee

During roasting, heat triggers chemical reactions that transform the composition of coffee:

  • The Maillard Reaction: This reaction occurs between sugars and amino acids, forming melanoidins—compounds that give coffee its brown color, body, and rich flavors.
  • Caramelization: As sugars break down, they create the sweetness and color characteristic of roasted coffee.
  • Fermentation: During coffee processing, fermentation alters proteins, carbohydrates, and chlorogenic acids, shaping the final cup’s acidity and taste.

Acidity in Coffee

Coffee has a natural pH of 5.0 to 5.5, making it mildly acidic. Different acids contribute to its vibrant flavor profile:

  • Chlorogenic Acid: Adds bitterness and antioxidant properties.
  • Citric Acid: Brings bright, fruity, citrus-like notes.
  • Malic Acid: Offers a green apple tartness.
  • Acetic Acid: Adds a sharp, tangy edge.

Interestingly, quinic acid levels increase as chlorogenic acids break down during roasting, affecting the perceived acidity and body of coffee.

The Art and Science of Coffee

Coffee is more than just a beverage—it’s a chemical symphony where heat, time, and processing methods shape every sip. From the first crack in roasting to the final aromatic brew, the chemistry behind coffee defines its depth, complexity, and sensory experience.

The Ever-Changing Coffee Market: A Call for Continuous Adaptation

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In the ever-evolving world of coffee, Glenio Caetano, a risk management consultant and coffee trader, made a thought-provoking statement: “No one can claim full mastery of all aspects of this industry. From cultivation to export, from climate challenges to shifts in consumer behavior, continuous adaptation has become an indispensable necessity.” We fully agree with his perspective, as we believe that success in this sector relies on swift responsiveness and continuous learning.

Challenges and Complexities

As Caetano pointed out, some believe they understand every detail of the coffee industry, from farm to cup. However, reality proves otherwise. The market is more complex than it seems, with external factors such as climate fluctuations, economic crises, and geopolitical developments constantly reshaping the landscape. The coffee world is not governed by fixed rules; rather, it operates within a dynamic system that requires every market player to remain flexible and prepared for change.

The coffee industry has become more intricate than ever due to climate changes affecting production, economic fluctuations reshaping the market, and continuous shifts in consumer preferences that force producers and traders to rethink their strategies. Added to this are logistical disruptions and rising shipping costs, making it increasingly difficult to maintain supply chain stability.

Why Must We Adapt?

Market research alone is not enough. Success in coffee trading requires the ability to adapt to new developments and respond swiftly to changes. Data-driven decision-making, adopting flexible risk management strategies, investing in sustainable practices, and fostering collaboration among industry players are all crucial factors for ensuring resilience in a challenging environment.

As Caetano stated, “The market does not forgive absolute certainties,” and we completely agree. The coffee industry is not just about trade; it is a constantly shifting world where no one can claim complete knowledge. Continuous adaptation, openness to learning, and the ability to stay ahead of market shifts remain the key factors distinguishing successful players in this industry.

Caffeine Lovers in Trouble: Coffee Prices Soar to Record Highs!

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Global coffee prices have soared to record levels, raising concerns among consumers and industry experts as supply shortages and rising demand push costs higher.

Arabica coffee, the world’s most widely used coffee variety, surged 70% in 2024 and has already increased by 20% in 2025, reaching a historic high of $4.30 per pound on February 11. Robusta, commonly used in instant coffee, also spiked 72% last year, peaking at $5,847 per metric ton on February 12.

The sharp increase in wholesale prices is expected to filter down to consumers, with café and supermarket prices likely to rise in the coming months.

Weather Disruptions and Supply Constraints

The global coffee market is heavily dependent on Brazil and Vietnam, which together account for over 50% of global coffee production. However, extreme weather conditions—including prolonged droughts and higher temperatures—have significantly impacted yields over the past three years.

According to industry analysts, Brazil’s average rainfall has been consistently below historical levels, potentially indicating a structural climate shift. Vietnam, another key producer, has also faced weather-related challenges, further tightening global supply chains.

Data from Reuters shows that in the past four years, global coffee consumption has exceeded production by 13 million bags, the equivalent of 500,000 tons of coffee beans. The depletion of coffee stockpiles has exacerbated price volatility, leaving little buffer for supply shocks.

Demand Remains Strong Despite Higher Costs

Despite rising prices, global coffee demand remains robust. Traditionally considered an inelastic product, coffee has retained its appeal even during economic downturns. However, some shifts in consumer behavior are emerging:

  • Consumers are opting for budget-friendly brands. J.M. Smucker, the maker of Folgers, reported a 3% rise in coffee sales between August and October 2024, even as it raised prices.
  • Premium coffee chains are seeing weaker sales. Starbucks and other high-end brands have reported a decline in consumer spending as customers seek more affordable alternatives.
  • China’s coffee consumption is rising rapidly. Once a predominantly tea-drinking nation, China’s coffee consumption has been growing by 10-20% annually, adding further pressure on global supply.

Financial Markets and Speculation Intensify Price Swings

Beyond supply and demand, market dynamics have also played a role in the recent price surge. Many commodity traders hedge coffee purchases through futures contracts, but soaring prices have triggered margin calls, forcing some traders to exit the market.

Additionally, some farmers have defaulted on contracts signed months earlier when prices were lower, preferring to sell at today’s higher rates. This has further reduced available supply, pushing prices even higher.

“The coffee market is experiencing an unprecedented rally,” said Marcelo Teixeira, Reuters’ commodities correspondent, in a recent Econ World podcast. “The rapid price increases have left traders scrambling to manage risks, and with fewer sellers in the market, speculation has amplified volatility.”

Outlook: Higher Prices for Consumers in 2025

While some analysts predict a potential easing of prices by late 2025, industry experts warn that relief is still months away. Brazil’s 2025 crop is expected to be below average, meaning supply constraints could persist into 2026.

Even if production rebounds, coffee prices are unlikely to return to pre-2024 levels, similar to the long-term trends seen in the cocoa market after its recent price surge.

How Consumers Are Adapting

With higher prices expected to continue, many coffee drinkers are adjusting their habits:

  • More consumers are brewing coffee at home instead of purchasing from cafés.
  • Retailers may introduce more blended coffee options to keep costs down, using a mix of Robusta and Arabica beans.
  • Some companies are exploring synthetic coffee alternatives, made from vegetable-based substitutes.

The Bottom Line

As supply shortages persist and financial speculation drives prices higher, coffee consumers should prepare for further price hikes in 2025. While some adjustments in production could ease market pressures by 2026, experts caution that the days of cheap coffee may be over.

Are you changing your coffee habits due to rising prices? How much do you spend on coffee each week? Share your thoughts at [email protected] .

Espresso Extraction: Has Modern Technology Eliminated Variability?

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Coffee experts and scientists have long wondered why every espresso shot is different, even when all brewing variables—such as grind size, dose, water pressure, and temperature—are precisely controlled. Previous research, most notably a study published in 2019, revealed that thermodynamic factors, such as fluctuations in water temperature, extraction pressure, and gas dissolution, significantly impact the final result. But the key question remains: Has the espresso machine industry effectively addressed these challenges?

To gain insight from within the industry, we reached out to Antonio Orria, a coffee and beverage expert at Simonelli Group – Middle East, who explained how manufacturers are leveraging cutting-edge technology to enhance extraction consistency.

According to Antonio Orria, leading espresso machine manufacturers are fully aware of the challenges associated with water-coffee interaction during extraction and are continuously developing technologies to minimize inconsistencies. Among the most notable innovations:

  • Soft Infusion System: Simonelli Group has developed a system that increases the resistance of the coffee puck, resulting in a more stable flow rate across multiple shots, thereby reducing cup-to-cup variability.
  • Advancements in Hydraulic Systems: Recent innovations primarily focus on achieving greater stability in water temperature and pressure, both of which are critical for consistent extraction.
  • Precision with T3 Genius Technology: The Black Eagle Maverick from Simonelli Group represents the pinnacle of modern espresso technology, offering full control over the entire water circuit, from the pump and boiler to the shower screens. This ensures highly stable temperature and pressure levels throughout the brewing process.

These advancements suggest that modern espresso machines are more precise and stable than ever before. But do these improvements translate into noticeable differences in coffee shops?

While scientific research and technological advancements continue, Antonio highlights an important distinction: “There is a difference between laboratory-level precision and real-world café environments… In research labs, we can measure extremely fine variations in espresso extraction, but these differences may not be noticeable to baristas or customers.”

In busy cafés, modern espresso machines—such as the Eagle One—can already produce highly consistent shots, with minimal variation. For the average consumer, these differences are barely perceptible, especially in milk-based drinks like cappuccinos and lattes.

Antonio also emphasizes that today’s espresso machines perform significantly better than those available just a decade ago, underscoring the remarkable progress the industry has made.

Despite these impressive advancements, Antonio acknowledges that the journey is far from over. Manufacturers will continue to develop more precise, efficient, and sustainable technologies in the coming years, further pushing the boundaries of espresso machine innovation.

While eliminating all extraction inconsistencies may never be entirely possible, modern technology is bringing us closer than ever to achieving the perfect, repeatable espresso shot.

What do you think about espresso extraction variability? Do you believe today’s machines have solved the issue, or is there still more to be done? Share your thoughts!

The Most Common Coffee Brewing Mistakes and How to Fix Them

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Making great coffee at home doesn’t have to be complicated. A few small changes can elevate your daily brew from just fine to fantastic.

To uncover the most common mistakes home brewers make, we spoke with Sarina Prabasi, founder of Buunni Coffee in New York City. As a micro-roaster and board member of the Specialty Coffee Association, she shared practical tips for refining your brewing routine.

7 Common Coffee Mistakes and How to Fix Them

1. Overwashing Your Coffee Maker with Detergent

It may seem counterintuitive, but excessive washing with dish soap can ruin your coffee. Even a trace of soap residue can alter the flavor.

Fix: For daily cleaning, simply rinse your coffee equipment with hot water. If oils build up over time, use a fragrance-free dish soap for an occasional deep clean.

2. Buying More Coffee Than You Can Use Fresh

Stocking up on beans might seem convenient, but it often leads to stale, lackluster coffee.

Fix: Buy smaller quantities and check the roast date (not the “best by” date). Coffee is freshest within two weeks to a month after roasting. Store beans in an airtight container away from moisture, heat, and odors.

3. Changing Too Many Factors at Once

Adjusting grind size, water temperature, brew time, and coffee-to-water ratio all at once makes it hard to pinpoint what’s affecting the flavor.

Fix: Modify one variable at a time. Start by adjusting your coffee-to-water ratio: Use two tablespoons of coffee per cup of water as a baseline, then tweak from there.

4. Using Tap Water

Tap water can introduce unwanted flavors, especially if it contains chlorine or other chemicals.

Fix: Use filtered water to improve clarity and taste. If you’re serious about brewing, investing in a home filtration system can make a noticeable difference.

5. Ignoring the Aroma Test

Stale coffee lacks the rich aroma that fresh beans should have. If your coffee smells dull or flat, it’s likely past its prime.

Fix: Always smell your coffee beans before brewing. If the aroma is weak, try using them for cold brew or immersion brewing to extract more flavor.

6. Overlooking Organic Coffee

Many commercial coffee farms use heavy pesticides that can remain on the beans. Unlike fruits, coffee can’t be washed before consumption.

Fix: Opt for organic coffee when possible. It doesn’t have to be expensive—just look for reputable brands that prioritize ethical sourcing and quality roasting.

7. Treating Coffee as Just a Caffeine Fix

Many of us drink coffee on the go without taking a moment to enjoy it.

Fix: Slow down. Whether you’re at home or at a café, take time to savor the ritual of brewing and drinking coffee. In Ethiopia, coffee is a shared experience—something to be enjoyed, not rushed.

finally Making better coffee at home doesn’t require fancy equipment—just thoughtful adjustments. Whether it’s using fresh beans, filtered water, or simply taking time to enjoy your cup, small changes can make a big difference.