Tag: International Coffee Organization

Director of the World Coffee Organization expects a shift in the market and emphasizes sustainability goals for 2024

Posted on by Qahwa World

Vanusia Nogueira, the Executive Director of the International Coffee Organization (ICO), anticipates a shift in the coffee market in the coming months. Nogueira recently discussed her insights on the industry’s outlook for 2024 with GCR.

Over the past year, the ICO has encountered significant challenges, presenting opportunities to strengthen collaborations with member countries’ national governments and the private sector. Their focus has been on fulfilling the objectives outlined in the Agreement, emphasizing improved statistical accuracy and the generation of new reports. Simultaneously, the ICO has actively pursued the goals outlined in the Coffee Public Private Task Force roadmap. A notable achievement was the successful hosting of the largest World Coffee Conference, attended by 18,000 participants from 80 countries. This conference played a crucial role in facilitating discussions on the Coffee Circular Economy and Regenerative Agriculture, underscoring the ICO’s commitment to sustainability and innovation in the coffee industry.

Looking ahead to the 2023/24 coffee year, the global market is expected to transition from a deficit to a modest surplus. This shift is attributed to a 5.8% increase in production, reaching 178.0 million bags, primarily influenced by biennial production in Brazil. The projected 3.0% world economic growth in 2024 is anticipated to contribute to a 2.2% rise in consumption, resulting in a surplus of 1.0 million bags for the period. The ICO expresses optimism that the new International Coffee Agreement will come into effect during the year, fostering private sector involvement and potentially positively impacting the market.

Addressing sustainability regulations, particularly meeting the deadlines of the EU Regulation on Deforestation-free products, will be a primary focus in the upcoming year. Clarifications are needed to ensure that all stakeholders can effectively fulfill their roles in compliance. Additionally, uncertainties surrounding the impact of climate change on the upcoming harvest remain a significant concern. Effectively addressing these issues will necessitate strategic planning and collaboration within the coffee industry.

Nogueira’s hope for 2024 is for the industry to operate with responsibility and unity, collectively working towards improving the lives of producers and actively contributing to addressing climate challenges.

International Coffee Organization releases its “Coffee and Outlook” report for December 2023

Posted on by Qahwa World

The International Coffee Organization issued its report for December 2023, entitled “Coffee Report and Outlook…December 2023.”

The extensive report covering various aspects of coffee production, consumption and trade around the world reveals trends and forecasts for the global coffee market.

The report confirms that global coffee production witnessed a marginal increase of 0.1% to reach 168.2 million bags, indicating significant shifts in production as production grows in the Americas and declines in the regions of Asia, Oceania and Africa.

According to the report, a 4.8% increase in South America, driven by increased production in Brazil every two years, mitigated the decline in Asia and Africa, resulting in a combined production of 100.5 million bags in the Americas.

The report indicated that the division of production between Arabica and Robusta reflects the dominance of the Americas, with Arabica production increasing by 1.8% to 94.0 million bags while Robusta production decreased by 2.0% to 74.2 million bags.

The report expects coffee production for 2023/24 to rise by 5.8% to 178.0 million bags, with the impact of biennial production playing an important role, especially in Brazil.

The report suggests that adverse weather conditions will affect expectations, especially in light of the expected occurrence of the El Niño phenomenon.

Regarding consumption trends, the report confirms that, despite positive growth expectations, global coffee consumption in 2022/23 recorded a sudden decline of 2.0% to 173.1 million bags.

The report attributed the decline in consumption to several factors, most notably the high cost of living, low disposable income, and the large withdrawal from inventories.

In addition, the difficult global economic conditions, characterized by high inflation and increasing interest rates, affected consumption rates, which was observed in 2022/23.

Regarding consumption expectations for the year 2023/24, the report confirms that, assuming global economic growth exceeding 3.0%, global coffee consumption is expected to rebound, growing by 2.2% to reach 177.0 million bags. Non-producing countries will contribute significantly to this increase.

At the market level, the report expects that the global coffee market will achieve a surplus of 1.0 million bags in the next coffee year 2023/24.

Click here to view the full report

International Coffee Organization: Global Coffee Prices Show Mixed Trends in November

Posted on by Qahwa World

In the latest release of the International Coffee Organization Indicator Prices (I-CIP) for November 2023, the global coffee market witnessed a varied performance across different categories.

The I-CIP, measured in US cents/lb, provides insights into the price movements of Colombian Milds, Other Milds, Brazilian Naturals, and Robustas throughout the month.

Colombian Milds:

The month kicked off with a price of 153.32 US cents/lb, reaching its peak at 166.38 US cents/lb on November 15. The average price for Colombian Milds settled at 160.74 US cents/lb, reflecting a robust market performance. However, the coffee variety experienced fluctuations, with a low of 153.32 US cents/lb observed on November 1.

Other Milds:

Other Milds followed a similar pattern, starting at 187.15 US cents/lb and reaching a high of 199.49 US cents/lb on November 13. The average price for Other Milds in November stood at 195.41 US cents/lb, showcasing a competitive market for this coffee category.

Brazilian Naturals:

Brazilian Naturals displayed a slightly different trend, beginning the month at 186.58 US cents/lb and peaking at 203.23 US cents/lb on November 15. The average price settled at 196.47 US cents/lb, indicating a noteworthy performance for this coffee variety throughout November.

Robustas:

Robustas started the month at 158.95 US cents/lb and reached their highest point at 174.72 US cents/lb on November 15. The average price for Robustas settled at 168.48 US cents/lb, showcasing resilience in the market.

Overall Market Performance:
The ICO composite indicator price for November 2023 reported an average of 121.69 US cents/lb, with the highest point at 127.30 US cents/lb and the lowest at 116.54 US cents/lb. The market showed a blend of highs and lows, reflecting the dynamic nature of the global coffee industry.

ICO’s Move to a New Pricing System:
It’s essential to note that since May 2021, the International Coffee Organization has transitioned to a new system for collecting prices. For further details on this change, interested parties can refer to the official document here.

As coffee enthusiasts and industry stakeholders analyze the November 2023 I-CIP data, it becomes evident that the global coffee market remains dynamic, with each coffee variety exhibiting unique price movements and contributing to the overall narrative of the industry’s health and stability.