Category: Studies

Ethiopia, the birthplace of Arabica coffee and one of the world’s most iconic producing countries, is expected to maintain a steady output of 4.5 million 60-kg bags in the 2024/25 marketing year, according to the latest report from the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service. This consistent level of production underscores the resilience of Ethiopia’s coffee sector in the face of prolonged drought and changing climate patterns.

Coffee remains the backbone of Ethiopia’s rural economy, providing livelihoods for over 15 million people, mostly smallholder farmers. Despite mounting production challenges, including erratic rainfall and limited irrigation infrastructure, the country has shown remarkable adaptability in sustaining its output at near-record levels. The forecast for 2024/25 matches the previous season’s production, reaffirming Ethiopia’s position as the fifth-largest Arabica producer globally.

Although Ethiopia experienced below-average rainfall during the last growing season, particularly in southern coffee-growing areas like Sidama and Yirgacheffe, production was largely preserved due to the enduring strength of its traditional agroforestry systems. The use of shade trees, minimal chemical inputs, and intercropping techniques not only sustains the environment but also helps maintain coffee yields even under climatic stress.

Additionally, while high global coffee prices in early 2024 initially encouraged expansion, smallholders were later discouraged by input costs and unstable weather. However, there is growing interest in drought-resistant coffee varieties, and government-led agricultural extension programs are helping producers cope with environmental stressors.

Ethiopia’s coffee exports are projected to reach 4.0 million bags in 2024/25, slightly up from 3.98 million bags in the previous season. The country remains one of the few major producers that exports both washed (wet-processed) and unwashed (natural) coffee at scale. In value terms, coffee exports continue to be the largest foreign exchange earner for the country, with Germany, Saudi Arabia, the United States, Japan, and South Korea among the top destinations.

Ethiopian coffee is internationally prized for its unique cup profiles — ranging from floral and citrusy to fruity and wine-like — especially from regions like Guji, Limu, and Harrar. These differentiated flavor profiles allow Ethiopian exporters to target both premium specialty markets and volume-based buyers.

Despite volatile international prices and recent currency fluctuations, the Ethiopian Coffee and Tea Authority (ECTA) is working with local cooperatives to improve traceability, quality control, and market access for smallholder producers. The country has also expanded its participation in international coffee fairs, with positive reception at events like the Specialty Coffee Expo in Chicago.

While exports dominate the coffee sector, domestic consumption is also rising steadily, estimated at 534,000 bags in 2024/25. Coffee drinking is deeply woven into Ethiopian social and cultural life, with the traditional coffee ceremony remaining a vital ritual across urban and rural households.

Urban demand for roasted and ground coffee is also growing, fueled by the expansion of modern retail outlets, local roasteries, and coffee chains in Addis Ababa and other major cities. This growing internal market provides some insulation for farmers from international price shocks.

Looking ahead, Ethiopia’s coffee sector faces several critical challenges. The continued depreciation of the Ethiopian birr, high transportation costs, and limited access to finance for smallholders and exporters are among the top concerns.

Moreover, climate volatility remains a long-term threat. While Ethiopia’s traditional production systems have helped mitigate recent drought impacts, more investment is needed in research, extension services, and infrastructure to prepare for future climate events.

There are also increasing concerns about regulatory fragmentation and the pace of implementation of the country’s coffee reform agenda. Some private exporters have expressed frustration over bureaucratic hurdles and a lack of transparency in the Ethiopian Commodity Exchange (ECX), although the government is gradually allowing direct export channels for specialty coffee under the new vertical integration model.

Despite its challenges, Ethiopia’s coffee sector stands on a strong foundation of tradition, biodiversity, and quality. The country’s ability to maintain stable production and exports under environmental and economic pressure reflects a deep-rooted resilience that few producing countries can match.

As demand for high-quality, traceable coffee continues to grow globally, Ethiopia is well-positioned to capitalize on its unique heritage — provided it continues to invest in climate adaptation, value chain transparency, and market reforms.

The Center for Circular Economy in Coffee (C4CEC), a collaborative initiative founded by the Lavazza Foundation, Politecnico di Torino, and the University of Gastronomic Sciences, has launched a global survey aimed at understanding how the coffee industry manages spent coffee grounds (SCGs). This effort seeks to gather insights from coffee professionals worldwide to inform a forthcoming white paper on sustainable practices in the sector.slowfood.com

Transforming Waste into Resource

The global coffee industry generates approximately 40 million tons of biomass waste annually, including SCGs, coffee cherry skins, and husks. Traditionally discarded, these by-products hold significant potential for upcycling into valuable products through circular and regenerative agricultural practices. Recognizing this opportunity, C4CEC aims to centralize innovation and knowledge on waste valorization, promoting sustainability across the coffee supply chain .researchgate.net+5slowfood.com+5cinea.ec.europa.eu+5backend.qahwaworld.com+1slowfood.com+1

Survey Objectives

The survey targets individuals and organizations involved in brewing, roasting, or selling coffee. It seeks to understand:

• Current methods of SCG management

• Challenges faced in valorizing SCGs

• Innovative practices and success stories

• Support and resources needed to enhance sustainability effortsmdpi.com

Insights gathered will contribute to a white paper developed by C4CEC, aiming to provide actionable recommendations for the industry.slowfood.com

Global Movement Towards Circular Economy

C4CEC’s initiative aligns with a broader global movement embracing circular economy principles in the coffee sector. Organizations worldwide are exploring innovative uses for SCGs, such as transforming them into biofuels, bioplastics, and even construction materials . These efforts not only reduce environmental impact but also open new economic opportunities within the industry.biochartoday.com

Participation and Impact

Coffee professionals are encouraged to participate in the survey, which takes approximately 5–7 minutes to complete. By sharing experiences and insights, participants will contribute to shaping a more sustainable and circular future for the coffee industry.

To participate in the survey, visit: https://form.jotform.com/251032520271340

Women who drink caffeinated coffee regularly in midlife may have a better chance of aging in good physical, mental, and cognitive health, according to a major long-term study presented on Monday at the Nutrition 2025 annual meeting of the American Society for Nutrition in Orlando.

The study, led by Dr. Sara Mahdavi during her postdoctoral fellowship at Harvard University’s T.H. Chan School of Public Health, tracked the health and dietary habits of 47,513 women over a 32-year period from 1984 to 2016. The findings suggest that women who consumed coffee regularly—especially in their 50s—were more likely to live beyond the age of 70 with minimal chronic diseases, strong physical function, and sound mental health.

“The findings suggest that caffeinated coffee — not tea, not decaf — may uniquely support aging trajectories that preserve both mental and physical function,” said Dr. Mahdavi.

Coffee’s Role in Healthy Aging

Participants were part of the Nurses’ Health Study, a large-scale, ongoing health survey in the United States. The women, aged between 45 and 60 at enrollment, provided detailed responses every four years about their dietary patterns and lifestyle, including their caffeine consumption from sources such as coffee, tea, cola, and decaffeinated coffee.

Researchers defined “healthy aging” as living to 70 or older without any of 11 major chronic illnesses, maintaining physical mobility, and having no signs of cognitive impairment or memory complaints.

By 2016, 3,706 women met these healthy aging criteria.

On average, these women consumed 315 mg of caffeine per day, equal to three small cups of coffee or 1.5 large cups by modern standards. Over 80% of their caffeine intake came from regular coffee, not other beverages.

Each additional cup of coffee per day was linked to a 2% to 5% increase in the likelihood of healthy aging—up to five cups daily, or roughly 2.5 modern-sized cups. Notably, this association held firm even after accounting for other lifestyle variables like diet quality, exercise, and smoking.

“These results, while preliminary, suggest that small, consistent habits can shape long-term health,” said Dr. Mahdavi.

Coffee vs. Other Caffeine Sources

While coffee appeared to offer positive effects, the study did not find similar benefits from other common sources of caffeine. Tea, decaffeinated coffee, and caffeinated soft drinks showed no significant association with healthy aging.

In fact, the study found that each additional small glass of caffeinated soda or cola was tied to a 20–26% lower chance of healthy aging.

“The health benefits appear specific to coffee. We didn’t observe the same associations with decaf, tea, or soda — suggesting that coffee’s unique combination of bioactive compounds plays a key role,” Dr. Mahdavi explained.

Moderation and Future Research

According to the researchers, up to two cups of coffee daily may be beneficial for most people, but moderate to higher intakes may offer additional advantages depending on individual tolerance.

Still, Dr. Mahdavi cautioned that coffee is no magic bullet and should be viewed as part of a holistic health strategy. “While this study adds to prior evidence suggesting coffee intake may be linked with healthy aging, the benefits are modest compared to overall healthy lifestyle habits,” she said.

Future research will explore how specific compounds in coffee interact with genetic and metabolic markers, particularly in women, to uncover the mechanisms driving these outcomes.

Important Notes and Limitations

Dr. Mahdavi noted that the participants in the study were primarily white, educated, and health professionals, which may limit the broader applicability of the results. “Further work is needed to confirm generalizability to more diverse populations,” she told Fox News Digital.

The study was presented as an abstract and has not yet undergone full peer-reviewed publication, though a detailed manuscript is expected to be submitted soon.

Meanwhile, health authorities like the Mayo Clinic continue to state that up to 400 mg of caffeine daily is safe for most healthy adults.

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Bottom line: For women already enjoying their daily brew, this study offers promising evidence that coffee—when consumed in moderation—may do more than just wake you up. It might also help you age with strength, clarity, and resilience.

Coffee is a beloved daily ritual for millions, but few realize it may interfere with medications ranging from thyroid pills to antidepressants. According to a detailed report by Dipa Kamdar, Senior Lecturer in Pharmacy Practice at Kingston University and published by The Conversation UK on May 30, 2025, caffeine can alter how drugs are absorbed and metabolized in the body—potentially reducing effectiveness or increasing side-effects. Here’s what every coffee drinker should know to stay safe while on medication.

For many people, the day doesn’t officially begin until that first sip of coffee. It’s energizing, comforting, and consumed by billions worldwide. However, new insights from Dipa Kamdar, Senior Lecturer in Pharmacy Practice at Kingston University, highlight a critical but often overlooked concern: coffee may interfere with the way certain medications work in the body.

The report, published by The Conversation UK, underscores that while caffeine boosts energy, it can also amplify side-effects, reduce drug absorption, and affect how long medications stay active in the system. Here’s a closer look at the main interactions and what you can do to avoid complications.

1. Cold and Flu Medications

Many cold remedies, such as those containing pseudoephedrine (e.g., Sudafed), are stimulants—just like caffeine. When taken together, these stimulants may cause restlessness, insomnia, headaches, rapid heartbeat, and even increased blood sugar and body temperature, especially for people with diabetes.

Caffeine can also intensify the side effects of asthma medications like theophylline and ADHD treatments such as amphetamines, potentially leading to jitteriness or disrupted sleep.

2. Thyroid Medications

If you’re taking levothyroxine for hypothyroidism, coffee timing matters. Studies show that drinking coffee within an hour of taking the pill can reduce its absorption by up to 50%, leading to decreased effectiveness and the return of symptoms such as fatigue or weight gain.

This interaction is mainly seen with tablet forms of the drug. To ensure maximum effectiveness, levothyroxine should be taken on an empty stomach with water, followed by a 30–60 minute wait before consuming coffee or food.

This rule also applies to osteoporosis medications like alendronate and risedronate (bisphosphonates), which also require an empty stomach to be absorbed properly.

3. Antidepressants and Antipsychotics

The interaction between caffeine and mental health medications is complex. For example:

• SSRIs (sertraline, citalopram): Lab studies suggest that caffeine may bind to these drugs in the stomach, potentially reducing their absorption and effectiveness.

• Tricyclic antidepressants (TCAs) like amitriptyline and imipramine: These drugs and caffeine are metabolized by the same liver enzyme (CYP1A2), which can lead to slower drug breakdown and increased side-effects or prolonged caffeine stimulation.

• Clozapine, a powerful antipsychotic, is also broken down by CYP1A2. Studies reveal that drinking just 2–3 cups of coffee can raise clozapine levels by up to 97%, increasing risks of drowsiness, confusion, or even more serious health issues.

4. Painkillers

Some over-the-counter pain medications (e.g., aspirin, paracetamol) include added caffeine to speed up absorption. Coffee may enhance this effect by increasing stomach acidity and emptying speed.

While this might help the drug work faster, it could also increase the risk of stomach irritation or bleeding, especially when multiple sources of caffeine are consumed.

5. Heart Medications

Caffeine can raise blood pressure and heart rate for several hours after consumption. This could counteract the benefits of medications prescribed for hypertension or arrhythmia. While patients with heart conditions don’t necessarily need to give up coffee entirely, monitoring intake and opting for decaffeinated coffee may be advisable in some cases.

Practical Tips to Stay Safe

To enjoy coffee while staying safe on your medications, consider the following expert recommendations:

• Take levothyroxine and bisphosphonates on an empty stomach with water, and wait at least 30–60 minutes before consuming coffee or food.

• Be mindful when using cold/flu medications, ADHD drugs, and asthma treatments alongside caffeine, as stimulant effects may be amplified.

• If you are on antidepressants, antipsychotics, or heart medications, discuss your caffeine habits with your doctor to adjust dosages or timing if needed.

• Watch for signs like insomnia, jitteriness, or heart palpitations — these could be clues that caffeine is affecting your medication.

• Metabolism varies: some people handle caffeine better than others. If you feel off after your coffee, consult your doctor or pharmacist.

Final Thoughts

Coffee is a powerful beverage that goes beyond flavor and energy—it’s a bioactive compound capable of altering the effects of several medications. While most people can still enjoy their daily brew, timing, dosage, and personal sensitivity matter.

As Dipa Kamdar emphasizes in her article for The Conversation UK, “A short conversation with your pharmacist or doctor might save you weeks of side-effects or reduced treatment effectiveness – and help you enjoy your brew with peace of mind.”

 

Good news for coffee lovers around the world. A recent scientific study, supported by expert commentary from a leading Egyptian cardiologist, reveals that coffee is far more than just a morning pick-me-up—it holds remarkable health benefits, including protection against liver and heart diseases and even contributing to a longer life.

Scientific Study: Coffee Shields the Liver

A collaborative study conducted by researchers from the University of Southampton and the University of Edinburgh analyzed data from nearly half a million participants and produced striking findings:

• A 35% reduction in the risk of developing liver cirrhosis

• A 34% lower likelihood of liver cancer

• A 61% decrease in the risk of death from liver-related diseases

What’s even more surprising is that these health benefits apply across all types of coffee—including instant, ground, and even decaffeinated varieties. The protective effect is attributed to coffee’s rich content of polyphenols and bioactive compounds, which offer strong antioxidant and anti-inflammatory properties. These elements help reduce inflammation, shield liver cells from damage, and mitigate oxidative stress, thus enhancing liver function and preventing chronic illnesses.

Dr. Gamal Shaaban: Coffee Is “The Alcohol of the Intelligent” and Promotes Longevity

In a related statement, renowned Egyptian cardiologist Dr. Gamal Shaaban spoke to Al-Dostor newspaper about coffee’s benefits for both the body and heart. He described coffee as “the alcohol of the intelligent,” emphasizing that it improves mood, boosts concentration, and supports longevity—provided it’s consumed in moderation.

Dr. Shaaban recommended three cups of coffee per day as the optimal amount, with a maximum of five. He highlighted that coffee helps prevent atherosclerosis, is rich in antioxidants, and plays a role in preventing fat accumulation in the liver, thus lowering the risk of fatty liver disease and cancer.

Timing and Consumption Guidelines

Dr. Shaaban stressed the importance of drinking coffee after breakfast and before 6:00 PM, cautioning against late consumption as it may cause insomnia and restlessness, which negatively impact heart health and increase the risk of clots.

He also advised drinking coffee without sugar or milk, explaining that sugar diminishes its positive effects, while milk may interfere with the absorption of its beneficial compounds.

In his concluding remarks, Dr. Shaaban stated:

“Coffee is the alcohol of the intelligent—one of life’s useful secrets, if consumed wisely.”

Popular Science highlights how research is rewriting what we thought we knew about coffee—debunking myths about roast strength, dehydration, heart health, and more.

Coffee is one of the most widely consumed beverages in the world, yet it remains surrounded by misconceptions. From the idea that dark roast has more caffeine to the belief that coffee causes dehydration or heart issues, myths persist despite scientific evidence to the contrary.

In a recent feature published by Popular Science, journalist Justin Pot examined four of the most common coffee myths and presented what the science really says. Here’s a breakdown of those myths—and the research that dispels them.

1. Dark Roast Doesn’t Mean More Caffeine

Contrary to popular belief, dark roast coffee isn’t stronger in caffeine content than light or medium roast. While the taste of a dark roast is more intense, it doesn’t correlate with higher caffeine levels.

According to a 2017 study cited by Popular Science and published in Nature, researchers Megan Fuller and Niny Z. Rao from Thomas Jefferson University found that medium roast Arabica beans actually had higher caffeine concentrations than dark roast when measured by mass. The longer roasting process reduces caffeine slightly, meaning that the darker the roast, the less caffeine it may contain.

2. Coffee Doesn’t Stunt Growth in Children

Another widespread myth is that drinking coffee can stunt a child’s growth. However, no scientific research supports this claim.

Popular Science references Dr. Roy Kim of the Cleveland Clinic, who clarified that “caffeine doesn’t impact growth.” While caffeine may slightly suppress appetite, this does not translate into any significant effect on child development or height. However, excessive caffeine consumption in children may cause sleep issues, moodiness, or heart palpitations—reasons why moderation is still advised for young coffee drinkers.

3. Coffee Does Not Dehydrate You

Because caffeine is known as a diuretic, many assume that drinking coffee leads to dehydration. This idea, though popular, has been largely debunked.

A 2014 study by researchers at the University of Birmingham, published in PLOS ONE and highlighted in Popular Science, compared hydration markers in men who consumed either coffee or water. The findings revealed no significant difference in hydration between the two beverages, showing that coffee contributes to fluid intake similarly to water. This is because coffee is mostly water—offsetting any mild diuretic effect from the caffeine.

4. Coffee Doesn’t Cause Heart Disease—It May Even Help

Many people worry that regular coffee consumption might increase the risk of heart problems due to its stimulating effects. However, research paints a very different picture.

As noted by Popular Science, a major 2022 study by the European Society of Cardiology found that drinking two to three cups of coffee per day—whether instant, ground, or decaf—was linked to a reduced risk of cardiovascular disease and lower overall mortality. The study involved more than 500,000 participants and supports the idea that moderate coffee consumption is not only safe but potentially beneficial for heart health.

Bottom Line: Science Supports Your Morning Cup

Coffee has long been misunderstood, but studies continue to show that many of the concerns associated with it are unfounded. Whether it’s fears about caffeine levels, dehydration, or long-term health effects, Popular Science makes it clear: coffee in moderation can be part of a healthy lifestyle.

Before making any significant changes to your caffeine intake, it’s always best to consult with a healthcare professional—especially if you have existing conditions. But for most people, that daily cup of coffee is not just safe—it may even be doing you good.

Peru’s coffee production is forecast to reach 4.2 million bags in 2025/2026, an 8% increase driven by better prices, fertilizer use, and organic market leadership. Challenges persist with pests, infrastructure, and EU regulations.

Peru’s coffee industry is set for a modest rebound in the 2025/2026 marketing year, with total production forecast to reach 4.2 million 60-kg bags, marking an 8% year-on-year increase, according to the Coffee Annual Report released by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) on May 21, 2025. This improvement is largely attributed to stronger international prices and increased fertilizer use, despite ongoing pressures from pests and structural limitations.

Coffee in Peru is primarily cultivated along the eastern slopes of the Andes, with the key producing regions being Cajamarca (22%), San Martín (20%), Junín (19%), and Amazonas (15%). Production remains almost entirely Arabica, with Typica (70%) and Caturra (20%) as the dominant varieties. The majority of cultivation takes place at elevations between 1,000 and 1,800 meters, where coffee is shade-grown, hand-picked, and sun-dried. Yields vary widely based on farm management practices, with the national average reaching 721 kg/ha in 2024/2025.

Despite better weather conditions and modest yield gains, Peruvian coffee farmers continue to face economic hardship. Labor represents 58% of production costs, followed by fertilizers (24%) and agrochemicals (12%). Most farms are smaller than 5 hectares and rely on traditional methods. Financial challenges persist due to limited access to credit, especially where land titles are not formalized, pushing many farmers toward cooperatives or informal lenders.

The harvest area remains stable at 335,000 hectares, with harvests typically running from April to September, peaking in June and July. However, coffee leaf rust (Hemileia vastatrix) and coffee borer beetle (Hypothenemus hampei) continue to affect up to 40% of production. These threats are particularly problematic at lower elevations and have led to increased use of phytosanitary treatments and tree replacement programs.

Peru’s domestic coffee consumption is forecast to rise slightly to 300,000 bags, although it still accounts for only 6% of total production. Per capita consumption remains low at 950 grams, far behind Colombia (2.5 kg) and Brazil (6 kg). Soluble coffee dominates the local market (75%), but preferences are shifting among younger urban consumers who increasingly opt for roasted and ground coffee.

On the trade front, Peru’s coffee exports are projected to rebound to 4.2 million bags in 2025/2026. In the previous year, the United States remained the top destination, taking in 27% of exports, followed by Germany (19%) and Belgium (11%). Export prices rose by 28% to an average of $229 per bag, with U.S.-bound coffee fetching slightly more at $236 per bag. Peru remains globally competitive, in part due to its status as the world’s leading exporter of organic coffee, with 90,000 hectares certified organic and many more effectively organic due to limited input use.

Peruvian producers actively pursue certifications like Fair Trade, Organic (USDA NOP, JAS, OCIA), Rainforest Alliance, and Café Practices, and the country is a frequent contender at international specialty coffee competitions. However, infrastructure issues—particularly poor roads and limited storage—continue to hamper access to global markets.

New policy developments are shaping the sector. Through the USDA-backed MOCCA initiative, Peru has trained over 27,000 producers, established 515 nurseries, and facilitated nearly $17 million in credit. The government also launched a national coffee promotion plan (through the National Executive Coffee Council) extending through 2030, aiming to improve production, boost consumption, and elevate Peruvian coffee on the world stage.

Yet looming regulatory concerns threaten smallholders. The EU Regulation on Deforestation-Free Products (EUDR) mandates traceability for imported coffee. Peru’s National Coffee Board warns that most small producers lack proper land-use certifications and face regulatory complexity that may limit access to EU markets. Although Peru’s Congress amended forestry laws in January 2024 to simplify compliance, producers insist more support is required.

Coffee continues to play a pivotal role in Peru’s rural economy, generating over 855,000 jobs, especially in remote regions. Through agencies like DEVIDA, the government promotes coffee as a sustainable alternative to coca leaf cultivation, reinforcing its significance as both an economic and social development tool.

Tanzania forecasts 1.45 million bags of coffee in 2025/2026. Robusta gains strength, exports grow to 1.37 million bags, while domestic consumption and EU trade shape future strategies.

The Coffee Annual Report – Tanzania 2025/2026, published by the U.S. Department of Agriculture on May 20, 2025, forecasts Tanzania’s total coffee production to reach 1.45 million 60-kg bags, up from 1.35 million the previous year. The increase is driven by favorable weather, ongoing farm rehabilitation, and strong international prices that continue to incentivize investment. Robusta production leads the growth, particularly in the northwest Kagera region, where new farms are emerging in districts like Ngara.

Tanzania’s cultivated coffee area is set to expand to 270,000 hectares in 2025/2026, though the harvested area remains stable at 265,000 hectares due to the maturity timeline of new plantings. While over 40% of Tanzanian farmers grow coffee—mostly on small plots averaging 0.63 hectares—the majority of trees are over 25 years old, highlighting the importance of replanting initiatives.

The country grows both arabica (60.9%) and robusta (39.1%). Arabica thrives in the northern highlands and southern regions such as Kilimanjaro, Mbeya, and Njombe, while robusta is cultivated mainly in Kagera, near Lake Victoria. The harvest season runs from July to October, with about 90% of total production generated by 320,000 smallholder farmers.

Increased rainfall, stable temperatures, and ongoing government-supported seedling distribution (25 million seedlings by end-2025) are helping rejuvenate aging farms. Additionally, robusta prices and market demand have encouraged farmers to expand and invest in fertilizers, tools, and better agricultural practices. Nonetheless, fertilizer use remains limited—only 40% of farmers in the north and south apply synthetic fertilizers, and just 2% in the west.

Fertilizer costs are high, with subsidized prices ranging from $23 to $28 per 50-kg bag as of September 2024. Since Tanzania imports 95% of its fertilizer, price volatility remains a constraint, especially for smallholders with limited capital. On average, farmers apply just one bag per hectare—far below recommended levels.

Coffee exports are forecast to grow to 1.37 million bags in 2025/2026, up from 1.26 million the prior year. Export momentum remains strong, supported by premium Tanzanian arabica, global price incentives, and improved capacity in production and marketing. The European Union continues to dominate as Tanzania’s largest export market, purchasing six times more green beans than the United States. Despite a decline from 749,000 bags in 2023 to 653,000 in 2024, the EU remains critical. Japan is the second-largest importer, followed by the United States, which has more than doubled its purchases over the past three years. China and India also show rising interest.

Tanzania’s soluble coffee exports—centered in Bukoba—are projected to remain stable at 10,000 bags, with destinations like Kenya, Turkey, and the EU showing varied but consistent demand. The export season peaks between December and February, with January 2025 seeing a high of 169,638 bags shipped.

On the domestic front, consumption is projected to grow to 85,000 bags, up from 77,000 the previous year. Urbanization, rising incomes, and government-led coffee promotion in cities like Dar es Salaam and Arusha are boosting demand. Low-cost coffee stalls and awareness campaigns aim to shift local preference away from tea, which remains the dominant beverage.

However, local consumption still lags significantly behind production due to high roasting costs, limited infrastructure, and cultural preferences. The government continues to encourage local roasting and brewing, but strong export demand keeps most production headed abroad.

Stocks are forecast to rise slightly to 51,000 bags, held primarily by cooperatives, exporters, and larger growers. Government policy efforts—guided by the Tanzania Coffee Industry Development Strategy (2020–2025)—focus on improving quality, expanding cultivation, and strengthening market access. In April 2025, a major Memorandum of Understanding with Corus International secured $30 million in funding to improve coffee quality, marketing, and farmer income.

Tanzania’s position as one of only three global producers of Colombian Mild Arabica—alongside Colombia and Kenya—remains a major asset. The country’s coffee sector has shown resilience amid climate challenges and market fluctuations. With rising production, expanding exports, and ongoing replanting initiatives, Tanzania’s coffee industry is poised to grow—provided it can address persistent input, infrastructure, and quality bottlenecks.

• Mexico’s coffee output is forecast to reach 3.9 million bags in 2025/2026, driven by high prices and renewed investment. Exports and consumption rise, but challenges remain in labor and farm renovation.

According to the Coffee Annual Report – Mexico 2025/2026, published by the U.S. Department of Agriculture on May 20, 2025, Mexico’s coffee production is projected to reach 3.9 million bags (green bean equivalent) in the upcoming season. This slight increase over the previous year is fueled by strong international prices, targeted government support, and sustained efforts to renovate plantations and promote coffee quality.

Production is concentrated in four states—Chiapas, Veracruz, Puebla, and Oaxaca—which together account for over 91% of the national output. Chiapas remains the leading state by volume, while Puebla continues to post the highest productivity levels, thanks to favorable agro-climatic conditions, investment in disease-resistant varieties, and proximity to urban infrastructure.

Arabica coffee dominates production with 3.5 million bags, while robusta output is forecast to decline slightly, especially in lowland Veracruz, which was hit by heatwaves between June and October 2024. The national average yield stands at 5.89 GBE/ha, with Veracruz and Puebla reporting much higher averages of 7.04 and 12.22 GBE/ha, respectively.

Although planted and harvested areas remain relatively stable across Mexico’s 14 coffee-growing states, factors like labor shortages, input costs, climate variability, and pests continue to affect year-to-year output. Labor challenges are particularly acute in Chiapas, where restrictions on migrant workers—especially from Guatemala—and competition from higher-paying industries like tourism have limited workforce availability. Rising costs across transportation, fertilizer, and fuel further strain profitability.

Despite these obstacles, Mexico’s domestic consumption is expected to grow modestly to 3.15 million bags, a 1.6% increase from the previous year. The demand for roasted coffee is driving this growth, with urban areas showing increased interest in single-origin and premium varieties. Soluble coffee still dominates the market, accounting for 57% of total consumption, but the specialty segment is expanding steadily.

A notable development in 2024 was the launch of Café Bienestar, a government-backed instant coffee brand distributed through over 24,000 Bienestar stores across Mexico. The program aims to provide affordable coffee while supporting small producers, especially in northern Veracruz. Though the brand currently represents a small share of the soluble market, it plays a key social role by increasing access to coffee in underserved communities.

Mexico’s coffee exports are projected to rise to 3.05 million bags in 2025/2026, including 1.6 million bags of soluble coffee. The United States remains the top buyer of Mexican coffee in all forms—green, roasted, and soluble. Export volumes are seasonally highest between April and May, and recent revisions have shown stronger-than-expected shipments of soluble products.

At the same time, coffee imports are expected to increase to 2.39 million bags, mostly driven by robusta imports used in blending and soluble manufacturing. Brazil remains the leading supplier of green and soluble imports, while the United States dominates roasted coffee imports.

Regulatory dynamics are shaping consumption trends. In March 2025, Mexico enacted the Healthy Life in Schools Law, which bans the sale of caffeinated beverages in primary and middle schools. While this may reduce early-age exposure to coffee, the law allows unsweetened coffee consumption in higher education institutions, potentially strengthening coffee habits among university students.

Meanwhile, the government continues to promote domestic coffee through programs such as “Ask for a Mexican Coffee,” encouraging agrotourism in Chiapas, Veracruz, and Puebla. Competitions like Expo Café, Cup of Excellence, and regional events like Expo Orgullo de Puebla play a critical role in boosting national appreciation for Mexican-grown coffee and connecting producers with buyers and consumers.

Private and NGO partnerships are also revitalizing the sector. Programs by Nestlé, Starbucks, Sabormex, BASF, and Solidaridad focus on distributing rust-resistant plants, offering agronomic training, soil analysis, and creating new business models through youth engagement. Starbucks alone has donated over 4.8 million seedlings and operates a Farmer Support Center in Chiapas. These efforts are complemented by partnerships with universities, co-ops, and international donors.

Policy-wise, Mexico is consolidating coffee support programs under the Cosechando Soberanía en Café initiative. In 2024, over 205,000 producers received direct support payments totaling nearly US $75 million. Fertilizer subsidies and certified seed distribution are also part of a broader 2026–2030 strategic plan aimed at stabilizing productivity, improving plant health, and expanding exports to Eastern Europe and Asia.

At the global level, price volatility remains a central factor. In April 2025, coffee prices fluctuated between 308 and 340 US cents per pound, driven by supply disruptions in Brazil, rising global demand, and potential tariffs. The tight global supply, combined with increased investment by Mexican farmers, has temporarily boosted margins, but the long-term outlook depends on whether global supply growth corrects prices in the coming seasons.

As Mexico enters the 2025/2026 marketing year, the coffee sector finds itself in a cautiously optimistic position. Strong prices, rising demand, and quality-driven initiatives are supporting producers and exporters alike, but risks tied to climate, regulation, and cost must be carefully managed to maintain momentum.

Vietnam forecasts a record 31 million coffee bags in 2025/2026, with robusta dominating production. Exports and domestic consumption rise, while prices and processing investment reshape the sector.

The Vietnam Coffee Annual Report 2025/2026, published by the U.S. Department of Agriculture on May 19, 2025, projects a notable recovery in Vietnam’s coffee sector, with total production expected to reach 31 million 60-kg bags of green bean equivalent. This marks a strong rebound from the previous year’s 29 million bags and reflects both improved weather and stronger farmer investment driven by record prices. Robusta continues to account for the vast majority of production, at an estimated 30 million bags, while arabica holds steady at 1 million bags.

The Central Highlands — including Dak Lak, Lam Dong, Dak Nong, Gia Lai, and Kon Tum — remain the core of Vietnam’s coffee industry, producing over 90% of the country’s output. The combination of volcanic soil, high elevation, and distinct wet-dry seasons creates optimal conditions for robusta cultivation. Despite some local media reports about farmers switching to higher-value crops like durian, official data shows the coffee area expanding, with 730,000 hectares planted in 2024, 92% of which is harvestable.

Farmer investments have been bolstered by global coffee prices that more than doubled over the past year. Domestic robusta prices reached approximately VND 125,000 per kilogram in early 2025 — a 130% increase over 2024 — while average export prices hit $5,630 per ton, up 143% year-on-year. Many producers, anticipating further gains, have been withholding stocks, which caused a 23% drop in exports during the first half of 2024/2025 despite strong global demand. Exporters have shifted toward a just-in-time model, moving away from large-scale stockpiling as capital costs rise.

Vietnam’s coffee exports are expected to rebound to 27 million bags in 2025/2026, up from an estimated 25.8 million in the current year. This includes 23.7 million bags of green coffee and 3.3 million bags of processed products, such as roasted and soluble coffee. Processed coffee continues to gain market share, rising from 8.8% of exports in 2022 to 9.6% in 2024, fueled by growing demand in Asia. Countries like the Philippines, China, and Indonesia are paying higher prices than Europe, with the Philippines paying $4,424/ton, compared to Germany’s $3,390 or Italy’s $3,260.

Soluble and roasted coffee exports are gaining momentum, supported by major factory investments. Nestlé recently invested nearly $75 million to expand its Dong Nai facility — producing for over 35 global markets — bringing its total Vietnam investment to nearly $1 billion. Local companies are also scaling up: Trung Nguyen is building a $75 million processing plant in Dak Lak, and Highlands Coffee opened a new $20 million facility with a processing capacity of 75,000 tons per year.

Domestic consumption is also growing fast. Forecasts for 2025/2026 suggest 4.9 million bags will be consumed locally, up from 4 million this year. This growth is driven by a rising middle class, recovering tourism, and a boom in café culture. Vietnam now has over 500,000 cafés, from traditional street vendors to modern coffee chains. Takeaway and home-brewed coffee are also gaining popularity among younger consumers.

Meanwhile, Vietnam is preparing for the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR), which takes effect in 2026. With 41% of exports destined for the EU, compliance is critical. Two Vietnamese companies have already met the requirements — including Simexco Daklak with its traceability system. The Ministry of Agriculture and Environment is building regional monitoring systems covering 136,000 hectares, developing a national coffee database to support certifications like Rainforest Alliance, 4C, and Fair Trade.

While weather conditions in early 2025 were favorable — with higher rainfall than 2024 — concerns remain about drought risks in April and May. Nonetheless, the overall forecast suggests stable and improving growing conditions. Vietnam’s top research institution, WASI, continues to supply 4–5 million coffee seedlings per year for new and replanted farms, aiming to raise productivity and climate resilience.

Despite the high prices, coffee yield improvements remain critical. Robusta yields are forecast at 2.90 metric tons per hectare, slightly up from 2.73 in 2024. Arabica yields remain modest and will require stronger investment and varietal development. The Ministry’s specialty coffee development plan aims to expand specialty coffee to 19,000 hectares by 2030, signaling future diversification in quality segments.

Vietnam’s coffee imports are projected to decline slightly to 800,000 bags in 2025/2026 due to higher domestic supply, but sustained demand for arabica beans and processing inputs will keep import levels stable.

As Vietnam enters the 2025/2026 marketing year, it does so with strong fundamentals: record prices, recovering export flows, fast-growing domestic demand, and a strategic shift toward higher-value products and traceable supply chains. However, exporters must remain agile amid price volatility and regulatory pressure, especially as Europe and Asia demand more than just beans — they want quality, transparency, and resilience.

Indonesia projects 5% growth in coffee production for 2025/2026, reaching 11.3 million bags. Robusta dominates output, exports rise 7%, but domestic consumption slows amid weak spending.

According to the Coffee Annual Report – Indonesia 2025/2026, published by the U.S. Department of Agriculture on May 19, 2025, Indonesia’s coffee production is forecast to reach 11.3 million 60-kg bags, marking a 5% increase over the previous year. This growth is attributed to favorable weather during the flowering season and improved farm inputs. However, despite higher production and a 7% rise in exports, domestic consumption remains sluggish due to weak middle-class spending.

Indonesia’s total planted area remains unchanged at 1.2 million hectares, as no major expansion or replanting initiatives have been introduced in recent years. Smallholder plantations—typically between one and two hectares—continue to dominate the sector, accounting for 98% of total area. Larger estates, managed by private and state-owned companies, are located primarily in Sulawesi, Sumatra, and East Java.

The island of Sumatra remains the heart of Indonesia’s coffee belt, producing 70–75% of the country’s total output, with the majority being robusta from provinces like South Sumatra, Lampung, and Bengkulu. Arabica production is centered in North Sumatra, as well as high-altitude zones in Java, Sulawesi, and Papua.

In 2025/2026, robusta production is expected to increase by 500,000 bags, reaching 9.8 million bags, driven by improved rainfall and increased fertilizer use. Farmers in Jambi and South Sumatra began harvesting in late April 2025, with peak harvest expected between June and July. Meanwhile, arabica production is projected to reach 1.45 million bags, showing a slight increase. Arabica is harvested twice annually—in April/May and again in September/October.

Improved margins from rising prices over the past two years have motivated smallholders to rejuvenate neglected plots and adopt better farm practices. In regions like Lampung, fertilizers and pesticides are often accessed on credit through village-level aggregators. Family labor is commonly used, with rotational harvesting labor helping reduce overall costs.

Despite this, yields—especially for robusta—remain below one ton per hectare, constrained by inconsistent seed quality and a limited supply of improved planting material. Local government support for better seedlings and training programs remains geographically limited.

Domestic consumption in 2025/2026 is forecast at 4.81 million bags, up slightly by just 10,000 bags. While roasteries and processors continue to show demand, many were pressured by rising input costs and subdued consumer purchasing power during 2024/2025. Lower- to mid-grade coffee products are expected to perform better, particularly among working-class and Gen Z consumers in urban areas. Street vendors and hawkers selling affordable coffee maintain steady sales, while high-end cafés remain popular with younger and higher-income demographics.

Ready-to-drink (RTD) coffee sales continue to grow—albeit at a slower pace. In 2025, RTD volume is projected to increase by 3%, the slowest rate since the pandemic. These products, often priced more accessibly than those at branded coffee chains, have become increasingly popular in convenience stores and vending machines.

On the trade front, green bean exports are forecast to increase to 6.5 million bags, up from 6.1 million last year. The growth comes from improved availability following the production rebound. However, uncertainty surrounds shipments to the United States, which had resumed during a temporary tariff pause but may face disruption after July 2025. Exporters are bracing for the expiration of a 90-day suspension on a reciprocal 32% tariff, and are actively redirecting shipments to alternative destinations such as ASEAN countries, Japan, the EU, and the Middle East.

In 2024/2025, exports to the U.S. reached 726,000 bags, a 23% increase over the prior year. The EU remained the top buyer, driven by demand from Belgium and Germany, with over 1.4 million bags shipped between March 2024 and February 2025—double the volume from the previous year. However, the upcoming EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) poses new compliance challenges. Exporters are now preparing to meet stricter traceability and sustainability requirements, including the need to provide due diligence statements certifying that coffee is deforestation-free.

Green bean imports, mostly of robusta from Vietnam and arabica from Brazil, are projected to fall to 400,000 bags in 2025/2026 as local availability improves. During the 2024 period, imports from Vietnam dropped to 490,000 bags, while Brazilian imports stood at 180,000 bags.

As for pricing, domestic bean prices have soared. Robusta spot prices in Lampung exceeded IDR 222,000/kg in early 2025, up sharply from IDR 55,000–70,000/kg the year before. Arabica spot prices in Medan surpassed IDR 213,000/kg in April and May. This price spike is tied to global market trends and lower stocks in late 2024, when many farmers held back supplies in anticipation of continued increases.

Despite these high prices, the use of high-yield, disease-resistant seedlings remains limited, and yield gaps persist across regions. Heavy rains and strong winds during cherry development continue to pose risks, especially for arabica grown in highland areas. However, weather during the flowering season was favorable, particularly from October to November 2024, boosting optimism for the current cycle.

As the Indonesian coffee sector moves into the 2025/2026 cycle, modest production gains, a resilient robusta base, and improved inputs set a stable foundation. But policy uncertainty, export redirection, price volatility, and looming EU regulations demand adaptive strategies. Strengthening farmer support programs, modernizing planting systems, and expanding traceability infrastructure will be key to sustaining momentum in the seasons ahead.

• Brazil forecasts 65 million bags of coffee in 2025/2026. Robusta expands while arabica falls. Revenue hits all-time high amid supply bottlenecks and global price surges.

The “Coffee Annual Report – Brazil 2025/2026,” published by the U.S. Department of Agriculture on May 15, 2025, indicates that Brazil, the world’s largest coffee producer, is set for a season with an estimated 65 million 60-kg bags of green coffee. This figure reflects relative stability in overall output compared to the previous year, but it conceals sharp contrasts between arabica and robusta performance. Arabica is expected to decline by 6.4% due to heat stress, drought, and its biennial cycle, while robusta continues to expand rapidly—up 15%—driven by improved weather and greater investment in irrigation and mechanization.

Key arabica-producing states like Minas Gerais and São Paulo experienced severe climatic stress during flowering. Minas Gerais endured over 200 days without rain, reducing blossom intensity and bean density, while São Paulo also reported dry weather at a critical phase. In contrast, states like Espírito Santo and Bahia benefited from more regular rainfall and improved irrigation systems, allowing them to sustain arabica yields and significantly boost robusta production. Espírito Santo alone now produces about 70% of Brazil’s robusta output, and Bahia is expected to increase its volume by 11%. Meanwhile, Rondônia reported delays in cherry maturation, but quality remains stable due to late but intense rains.

Despite the overall production rebound, coffee exports are forecast to decline by 5.6% to 41.75 million bags in the upcoming marketing year, affected by reduced availability, port congestion, and the return of strong competition from Vietnam and Indonesia. However, Brazil is capitalizing on favorable tariff structures, particularly in the United States, where Brazilian robusta enjoys a much lower duty than imports from some Asian countries. This opens new opportunities for robusta exports even as arabica shipments face mounting pressure.

Coffee prices have reached record highs in Brazil. In February 2025, arabica was priced at BRL 2,769.45 per 60-kg bag, while robusta reached BRL 2,102.12 in January. These price surges, driven by global supply disruptions and strong demand, have pushed the total value of Brazil’s coffee sector to BRL 126.7 billion—up 57% from last year and the highest in history. Arabica represents 71% of this revenue, while robusta contributes 29%.

Domestic coffee consumption in Brazil reached 22.28 million bags during the current season, showing a slight increase. However, per capita consumption declined to 5.01 kg due to population growth. The sharp rise in roasted coffee prices prompted some consumers to switch to instant coffee, which grew by 6% in the first quarter of 2025.

Soluble coffee exports also performed well. Spray-dried coffee accounted for 71.5% of the category, while freeze-dried shipments rose 19%. Premium coffee exports grew by 31%, particularly to the United States, Germany, Belgium, the Netherlands, and Japan.

Nonetheless, port infrastructure remains a major bottleneck. It is estimated that around 638,000 bags could not be exported due to port delays, resulting in losses exceeding BRL 1.5 billion. Brazil’s ports suffer from insufficient berth space and cannot accommodate large vessels, forcing the government to invest nearly USD 800 million in infrastructure upgrades in 2025.

To support growers, the government maintained minimum guaranteed prices at BRL 662.04 for arabica and BRL 498.79 for robusta. In addition, the National Coffee Fund (FUNCAFE) allocated BRL 6.88 billion to finance production, marketing, and weather damage recovery. Starting in 2026, Brazil will implement a broad tax reform that simplifies VAT and exempts basic food items, including coffee.

On the sustainability front, Brazil continues to strengthen its environmental and social compliance. According to the report, 97% of producers follow ESG-aligned practices, and the national digital traceability platform “Cafés do Brasil” is helping exporters meet the requirements of new EU regulations on deforestation-free supply chains.

While arabica faces a difficult season due to climatic instability, robusta is emerging as a strategic pillar for Brazil’s coffee future. With record-breaking revenues, growing export diversification, and strengthened sustainability credentials, Brazil remains a global coffee powerhouse—though continued improvements in infrastructure and support for smallholders will be critical to sustaining this momentum.