Category: Studies

From bitter espresso to caramel lattes — here’s how to find the coffee that truly suits you

For millions around the world, coffee isn’t just a beverage — it’s a daily ritual. Yet with so many styles, flavors, and roast profiles on the market, choosing the right coffee can be overwhelming. Should you reach for a rich Robusta blend or a smooth Arabica? Ground coffee or whole beans? And why does café-brewed coffee always taste better than homemade?

To help navigate these questions, coffee expert and café owner Irina Fedorova shares her insights into the nuances of flavor, brewing, and coffee culture.

Arabica vs. Robusta: What’s the Difference?

Arabica and Robusta are the two dominant coffee species used globally, but they differ significantly in taste and caffeine content. Arabica is known for its delicate acidity and subtle flavor notes, while Robusta offers a stronger, more bitter profile with twice as much caffeine.

Most store-bought ground coffee is a blend of 80% Arabica and 20% Robusta — a balanced choice for everyday drinking. Specialty cafés, however, typically serve 100% Arabica beans to highlight the origin’s unique taste characteristics. In contrast, many Western European consumers lean toward Robusta blends for their bold, chocolatey bitterness.

Buying Coffee at Home: What to Look For

When shopping for coffee beans, freshness matters. The ideal roast date is between one and two months prior to purchase. Coffee that is too freshly roasted may taste overly sharp, while beans roasted over six months ago lose aroma and complexity.

Fedorova recommends buying small portions — around 100 to 200 grams — and storing them in airtight containers. Once the package is opened, the beans begin to oxidize and absorb surrounding odors, diminishing quality.

Why Café Coffee Often Tastes Better

Even if you own a decent home espresso machine, you may find the taste lacking compared to professional baristas. That’s because most home machines don’t produce the pressure needed for full extraction of the coffee’s flavor compounds.

Still, there are great alternatives for home brewing: pour-over, Chemex, AeroPress, and even classic instant coffee — depending on your preference. Fedorova emphasizes that the roast level should match your brewing method:

• Dark roast is best suited for espresso machines.

• Light roast pairs well with pour-over and AeroPress.

• Medium roast is a versatile choice for most methods.

Sweet, Trendy, or Surprising?

While cappuccino remains the world’s most popular coffee drink, preferences are increasingly diverse. Some café customers go for mint-infused espresso, while others follow trends like matcha lattes or decaf cold brews.

Fedorova’s café once served a “Dubai Chocolate Raf” made with pistachio cream and kataifi dough, and this year introduced a “beetle coffee” — a blend of chocolate espresso, cranberry-grape juice, and peach purée.

Rare Beans and Bold Experiments

Fedorova enjoys exploring beans from different regions. Some experiments are more memorable than impressive — such as Hawaiian coffee costing €360 per kilogram, which turned out to be underwhelming despite its rarity.

One of her most unusual tastings was Kopi Luwak — coffee made from beans eaten and excreted by civets. Produced in countries like Indonesia and Vietnam, this coffee is known for its nutty, earthy flavor. While not part of her daily routine, she considers it a once-in-a-lifetime experience.

Coffee-Producing Powerhouses

Brazil leads the world in coffee exports, followed closely by Ethiopia, which is famed for producing some of the highest-quality Arabica beans. Other major producers include Colombia, Ecuador, and Bolivia, whose tropical climates and rich soils contribute to ideal growing conditions. At the other end of the scale, countries like Yemen, Togo, and Bolivia produce much smaller quantities — but often with exceptional quality.

How Many Calories Are in Your Favorite Coffee Drink?

• Cappuccino — 140 kcal

• Latte — 180 kcal

• Flat White — 140 kcal

• Raf — 230 kcal

• Mocha — 330 kcal

• Caramel Macchiato — 430 kcal

Final Word

Whether you prefer a bitter espresso or a sweet latte with syrup, there’s no wrong way to enjoy coffee — only the way that makes you feel good. With a bit of knowledge and experimentation, anyone can find their ideal brew.

We are pleased to launch this educational series on QahwaWorld.com , dedicated to providing essential knowledge for every barista and coffee enthusiast. Titled “Barista Terminology,” this series offers clear and concise explanations of key concepts in the coffee industry. It will span more than 20 episodes, each covering different aspects of the coffee world.

Espresso is more than just a concentrated shot of coffee — it’s the foundation for countless café drinks and a true test of a barista’s skill. In this episode, we explore the core concepts and terms every barista must understand to prepare, evaluate, and troubleshoot espresso like a professional.

1. Espresso

A small but intense coffee beverage brewed by forcing hot water under pressure through finely ground coffee. Known for its rich body, crema, and concentrated flavor.

2. Crema

The golden, foamy layer that forms on top of a properly extracted espresso shot. It consists of emulsified oils and carbon dioxide, and indicates freshness and correct extraction.

3. Single Shot / Double Shot

A single shot typically uses about 7–9 grams of coffee and yields around 25–30 ml. A double shot (the standard in most cafés) uses 14–18 grams and yields 50–60 ml.

4. Ristretto

A “short” shot of espresso made with the same amount of coffee but less water. It produces a more concentrated and syrupy cup with less bitterness and more sweetness.

5. Lungo

A “long” espresso shot made by allowing more water to pass through the coffee. It’s larger in volume but often more diluted and bitter.

6. Brew Ratio

The ratio of dry coffee grounds to the final liquid espresso. Common ratios include 1:2 (e.g., 18g coffee to 36g espresso). It affects strength, flavor, and balance.

7. Extraction Time

The duration it takes to brew an espresso shot — usually between 25 to 30 seconds. Extraction time influences flavor development; too fast may lead to sourness, too slow to bitterness.

8. Yield

The amount of liquid espresso produced in the cup, typically measured in grams. A key factor when dialing in espresso.

9. Puck

The compacted disc of used coffee grounds left in the portafilter after extraction. A clean, dry puck can indicate a good tamp and distribution.

10. Channeling

When water flows unevenly through the coffee bed, often due to poor tamping or distribution. It causes under- and over-extraction in the same shot.

11. Dialing In

The process of adjusting grind size, dose, yield, and time to achieve the desired espresso taste. Baristas often dial in multiple times a day as variables (e.g., humidity) change.

12. Under-Extraction

Occurs when not enough solubles are pulled from the coffee. Results in sour, sharp, or salty flavors. Often caused by too coarse a grind or short brew time.

13. Over-Extraction

Occurs when too many compounds are extracted. Results in bitterness and dryness. Often caused by fine grind or long brew time.

14. Balanced Shot

An espresso with harmony between sweetness, acidity, and bitterness — a sign of proper extraction and recipe.

15. Tasting Notes

Descriptors used to articulate espresso flavor — such as citrus, cocoa, berries, spice, or nuts. Tasting notes help communicate quality and profile.

A recent scientific analysis suggests that drinking coffee only in the morning may offer protective benefits for heart health and overall longevity — benefits not observed in those who consume coffee throughout the day or not at all.

The findings, based on U.S. national health survey data, involved nearly 41,000 adults with an average age of 47. Participants shared detailed information about their daily dietary habits, including coffee consumption — whether they drank it, how much, and at what time of day.

In addition to the broader group, a smaller sample of about 1,500 individuals kept a complete food and beverage diary for an entire week. Researchers tracked their health outcomes over an average follow-up period of almost a decade, linking dietary habits to mortality data.

The participants were divided into three groups:

• Those who drank coffee only in the morning (36%)

• Those who drank coffee at various times throughout the day (16%)

• Those who did not drink coffee at all (48%)

The results showed that morning-only coffee drinkers had a significantly lower risk of dying from cardiovascular disease — about 31% less — compared to non-drinkers. They also had a 16% lower risk of death from any cause during the study period.

In contrast, individuals who consumed coffee throughout the day showed no significant difference in mortality rates compared to those who did not drink coffee.

These observations suggest that not just drinking coffee, but when you drink it could play a role in long-term health outcomes, particularly concerning the heart. While more research is needed to explore the mechanisms behind this association, limiting coffee consumption to the earlier part of the day may be a simple lifestyle adjustment with meaningful health advantages.

As coffee prices continue to react to global supply pressures, DRWakefield’s June 2025 market report highlights a turbulent period for Arabica and Robusta futures. With low certified stocks, unpredictable weather in producing countries, and shifting macroeconomic indicators, the global coffee market is once again showing signs of stress and uncertainty.

Volatility Returns to Arabica as Frost Fears Collide with Macro Pressure

The week of June 9–13, 2025, opened with bullish sentiment for Arabica, following a significant drop in certified stock levels—down by 61,500 bags the previous week. European Coffee Federation (ECF) stocks remain at just 7.07 million bags, a worrying 5 million bags below the 5-year average. Japan Coffee Association (JCA) inventories are also tight, reported at 2.21 million bags, around 500,000 bags below the average.

Despite this backdrop, the market moved erratically. Arabica futures opened Monday at 357.85 c/lb, closing only slightly higher at 361.55 c/lb. But by Tuesday, frost warnings in Minas Gerais (Guaxupé and Poços) ignited a rally into the 370 c/lb range, before collapsing to a close of 355.05 c/lb. As frost concerns eased midweek and key technical levels failed to hold, Arabica resumed its descent. It hit a low of 338 c/lb on Friday before ending the week at 349.70 c/lb, partially buoyed by opportunistic roaster buying.

Robusta Shows Brief Strength Before Retreating Again

The London Robusta market saw a short-lived recovery midweek after breaking a six-day bearish streak. Prices reached a low of $4,315/MT, the weakest since November 2024, before rebounding and then declining again to close the week at $4,440/MT. Although up temporarily, the market remains well below this year’s high of $5,800/MT, reflecting strong export pressure from Vietnam and Brazil’s progressing harvest.

Production Outlook: Mixed Signals from Key Origins

In Brazil, Arabica production is forecast to fall 11%, down to 40.46 million bags, while Robusta is expected to increase 20% to 25 million bags, pushing total output to 65.51 million bags. Experts say Robusta yields may even surpass forecasts, contributing to falling Robusta prices.

Meanwhile, in Central America, recent rainfall has helped development, but the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service predicts an overall increase in 2025/26 harvest volumes—except Costa Rica, where output is expected to decline by 10% to 1.17 million bags, reversing last year’s growth cycle. Excessive rainfall in November and December hampered previous harvests, and though 2025 is expected to have “neutral” weather, uncertainty remains.

Colombia, on the other hand, faces a potential 5.3% decline in coffee production for the upcoming season, with an output estimated at 12.5 million bags. While the country is recovering from the El Niño-driven climate disruption, current heavy rains are now threatening flowering and cherry development, particularly in the south. High prices are also discouraging farm investment in replanting, raising concerns over long-term yield.

Certified Stocks & Commitment of Traders (COT)

• Arabica Certified Stock: ↑ 846,291 bags

• Pending Grading: ↓ 77,961 bags (down 45,425 from last week)

• Non-commercial net long: ↓ 21,712 futures lots

• Commercial net short: ↓ 53,686 futures lots

Organic Coffee Faces Delays Amid EU Compliance Challenges

Organic-certified exports from Central and South America continue to face bottlenecks. Residue from glyphosate—a commonly used herbicide—has been detected in containers entering the European Union, often traced to cross-contamination from nearby non-organic farms. Exporters are cautious about offering forward contracts until physical stocks are secured, forcing organic buyers to wait several months to cover supply gaps.

Currency Movements & Macro Conditions

U.S. Dollar Index (DXY): The World Bank has revised its 2025 global growth forecast down to 2.3%, the lowest since the 1960s, as post-pandemic and geopolitical challenges linger. The OECD echoed the downgrade, citing growth of 2.9% in 2025–2026. Despite momentary support from positive U.S. payroll data, the USD fell to a 3-year low midweek due to concerns over U.S.–China trade uncertainty. However, a late-week rebound followed renewed cooperation between the two countries.

GBP/USD: The British pound opened the week under pressure, triggered by April unemployment rising to 4.6%, the highest since August 2021, and slowing wage growth (5.2%). UK GDP shrank by 0.3% in April, marking the sharpest monthly decline since October 2023.

Middle East Tensions Surge Oil Prices

Heightened conflict between Israel and Iran—marked by Israeli airstrikes on Tehran on Friday, June 13—fueled a 10% jump in oil prices, raising fears of disruption to global crude supply. Iran’s strategic exports to India and China and its critical shipping lanes are now viewed as potential flashpoints that could rattle global trade and inflation.

Qahwa World Insight

June 2025 underscores the fragility of the global coffee supply chain—from frost alerts in Brazil and production cuts in Colombia and Costa Rica to certification hurdles affecting organic exports. The market remains on edge as traders weigh short-term weather shifts against long-term macroeconomic and geopolitical risks. With prices volatile and supply chains constrained, the second half of the year could test the resilience of roasters, exporters, and coffee producers alike.

Coffee isn’t just a morning ritual—it may also play a meaningful role in supporting your weight loss journey. In an article published by Health.com, authored by Lauren O’Connor, MS, RDN, and medically reviewed by Melissa Nieves, LND, the potential benefits of coffee—including metabolism support, fat burning, appetite suppression, and exercise enhancement—are explored in depth. This guide summarizes the key findings and offers practical tips for getting the most from your daily brew.

1. Boosts Metabolism

Caffeine stimulates your central nervous system by:

• Blocking adenosine, a compound that induces tiredness.

• Activating chlorogenic acid (CGA), which aids in fat breakdown and reduces inflammation.

• Delivering trigonelline, a B-vitamin that supports blood sugar and lipid regulation.

2. Helps Burn Calories

Caffeine promotes thermogenesis, the production of heat in muscles, which can modestly increase calorie burn by activating proteins like SERCA.

3. Enhances Energy & Focus

Caffeine increases heart rate, blood flow, and alertness—helping you stay active and motivated for physical movement.

4. Provides Antioxidants

Coffee is a major dietary source of antioxidants, especially CGA, which is linked to weight management. Green coffee contains higher CGA levels than roasted beans and is available in brew, powder, or capsule form.

5. Mobilizes Fat for Energy

Drinking coffee about an hour before exercise (about 3 mg caffeine per kg of body weight) can increase the fat your body uses for energy—especially during high-intensity workouts.

6. Improves Exercise Performance

Caffeine quickly crosses the blood-brain barrier, boosting alertness, muscle activation, and focus—leading to more effective workouts.

7. Naturally Low in Calories

Black coffee contains only 6–8 calories per 8‑oz cup. But adding sugar, cream, or syrups increases calorie intake and may reduce coffee’s natural antioxidant benefits.

8. Suppresses Appetite

Coffee may lower ghrelin (the hunger hormone) and raise serotonin, leading to reduced appetite—especially when consumed as green coffee.

9. Reduces Sugar Cravings

The bitterness of black coffee may curb sweet cravings by desensitizing sweet taste receptors and increasing the hormone CCK, which signals fullness.

Cautions and Considerations

• Avoid overconsumption: More than 500 mg of caffeine per day (about 5 cups) can cause anxiety, insomnia, dehydration, and bone health concerns.

• Watch your add-ins: Flavored creamers, syrups, sugar, and bulletproof-style fats can drastically raise calories and offset benefits.

Smart Coffee Tips for Weight Loss

• Keep it black, or use minimal low-fat milk.

• Avoid sugar and flavor syrups—opt for stevia, vanilla, or cinnamon.

• Drink coffee in the morning or 1 hour before workouts for best effect.

• Avoid late-night coffee to protect your sleep cycle and metabolism.

Summary

Used wisely, coffee can support weight management by boosting fat burn, enhancing workouts, and curbing appetite. To gain the most benefits, enjoy it black or with minimal add-ins—and time your coffee around your metabolism and activity levels.

Frequently Asked Questions

1. How much coffee is safe to drink daily?
Up to 400 mg of caffeine (around 4–5 cups of coffee) is considered safe for most healthy adults, according to the FDA.

2. Are there any downsides to drinking coffee daily?
Moderation is key. Too much caffeine may increase anxiety, interfere with sleep, and affect bone density over time.

3. What is Bulletproof Coffee?
It’s coffee blended with butter, ghee, or MCT oil—marketed for energy and satiety. However, it’s high in saturated fats and calories, and may cause digestive discomfort or raise cholesterol.

A landmark study in The New England Journal of Medicine reveals drinking 4 cups of coffee daily slashes Alzheimer’s risk by 27% in adults over 50. The decade-long Harvard Medical School and National Institute on Aging research tracked 12,000 participants, providing the strongest clinical proof of coffee’s brain-protective effects.

Key Findings

• Optimal Dose: 4-5 cups/day delivers maximum neuroprotection; no added benefit beyond 6 cups.

• Active Compounds: Chlorogenic acid and trigonelline inhibit Alzheimer’s-linked amyloid plaque formation.

• Critical Warning: Coffee hotter than 65°C (149°F) increases esophageal cancer risk by 42% (validating WHO’s 2024 advisory).

Science-Backed Tips

Maximize Benefits:

• Choose unfiltered brews (French press)

• Select light/medium roast beans

• Limit added sugar to ≤2 tsp per cup

Important Exceptions:

• Reduced efficacy for hypertension patients

• Not recommended for chronic acid reflux sufferers

Global Impact

With Alzheimer’s cases projected to hit 152 million by 2050 (WHO), lead researcher Dr. Elena Rodriguez states:

“This isn’t correlation – it’s an actionable prevention strategy.”

Industry Response

Starbucks and Illy will launch specialty “NeuroProtect” blends (Q3-2025) preserving 90% of key neuroprotective compounds during roasting.

Quick Answers

How much coffee prevents Alzheimer’s?
4 cups daily (≈400mg caffeine) brewed below 65°C.

Does decaf work?
Yes, but with reduced efficacy (18% risk reduction).

Coffee drying is a crucial part of post-harvest processing. After harvesting, coffee cherries contain a high moisture content—typically 50–60%. This must be reduced to a safe storage level of around 10–12% to prevent mold, bacterial growth, and premature spoilage. But drying does more than just reduce water—it preserves the cellular and chemical structure of the bean, allowing roasters to unlock its full sensory potential.

Improper drying leads to:
– Uneven roasting due to moisture inconsistency
– Loss of volatile aromatic compounds
– Increased risk of “quakers” (undeveloped beans)
– Shorter shelf life
– Muted or imbalanced cup profiles

Drying, therefore, plays a key role in green coffee stability, flavor development, and overall cup quality.

The Four Phases of Coffee Drying Explained

1. Initial Surface Drying

Immediately after depulping or washing (in washed and honey processes), beans are spread in thin layers under the sun to allow surface moisture to evaporate quickly. This phase is crucial to avoid fermentation-related defects.

Optimal Tools: Concrete patios, African beds, solar dryers
Ideal Conditions: Dry, sunny weather with moderate airflow
Duration: 1–2 days depending on climate and method

2. Gradual Internal Drying

Once surface moisture is removed, the beans are heaped into thicker layers. Turning becomes essential to ensure uniformity. Here, solar radiation must be controlled to avoid excessive temperatures above 40°C, which can kill living cells within the beans and lead to uneven drying.

Turning Schedule: Every 30–60 minutes during peak heat
Moisture Target: 20–16%
Risk: Beans become increasingly sensitive to heat and microbial imbalance

3. Resting or Stabilization

At around 16–17% moisture, coffee is rested—either in shaded heaps or designated storage areas. This resting stage is critical for internal moisture redistribution, allowing the entire batch to stabilize before final drying.

Scientific Insight: Research by Professor Flávio Borém shows that resting enhances uniformity and influences the formation of volatile aromatic compounds, especially in natural and honey-processed coffees.

Sensory Benefit: Reduces “green” or herbal notes often associated with excess moisture

4. Final Drying Phase

This is the slowest and most delicate part of the process. Beans are again spread thinly and dried slowly to reach a safe moisture content (10–12%). Methods like the “volcano” drying technique—where beans are mounded like a cone and carefully turned—help minimize sun exposure while allowing air circulation.

Best Practice: Dry under mild temperatures (<35°C)
Post-drying Rest: 15–30 days in storage to allow moisture equilibration

How Drying Affects Roasting and Cup Quality

Uniformly dried coffee beans roast evenly. Uneven drying, by contrast, causes some beans to roast faster than others—leading to underdeveloped flavors, bitterness, or even burnt notes.

Two moisture distribution profiles illustrate this clearly:
– Wide Spread: Same average moisture, but includes over-dried and under-dried beans. Results in inconsistent roasting.
– Narrow Spread: Uniform moisture content across the batch. Ensures even heat transfer and flavor clarity.

Key Insight: Single moisture readings can be misleading. Understanding the distribution is essential for quality control.

From Drying to Roasting: A Continuum of Quality

Dionathan emphasizes that post-harvest processes and roasting are inseparable. At Aracaçu and Caxambu farms, drying is treated not just as a technical task but as a craft rooted in care. Coffees rest for at least 20 days after drying—not only to stabilize but to pay respect to the bean’s life cycle.

This respectful approach leads to:
– Better flavor development
– Longer green coffee shelf life
– Higher scoring lots
– More transparency and traceability

Natural vs. Washed Coffee: Drying Makes the Difference

Drying methods differ by processing style:
– Natural Coffees: Dried with fruit skin intact, allowing fermentation to enhance sweetness and complexity
– Washed Coffees: Pulped and cleaned before drying, typically brighter and more acidic in profile
– Honey Processed: Partial mucilage retention, offering a balance of body and acidity

Each method requires its own drying curve and monitoring strategy. Understanding these differences is key to producing consistent, high-quality lots.

The Role of Infrastructure: Patios, Beds, and Climate

The drying environment—whether brick patios, raised beds, greenhouses, or mechanical dryers—directly impacts the rate and uniformity of drying. Microclimates, altitude, and air circulation all play a role.

Altitude Advantage: Higher altitudes with cooler temperatures enable slower, more controlled drying—ideal for premium specialty coffees.

Raised Beds: Promote airflow from above and below, reducing microbial buildup

Concrete vs. Brick Patios: Each retains heat differently, influencing drying speed and bean exposure

Final Thoughts: Drying as the Hidden Hero

Drying is not just a post-harvest step—it is a bridge between farming and roasting. It determines whether a coffee reaches its full potential or falls short. Understanding the science and philosophy behind drying helps producers, roasters, and buyers align expectations and improve outcomes.

By Dr. Steffen Schwarz | Coffee Consulate – Applied Coffee Science

Deep within Colombia’s lush coffee-growing regions—where humid air mingles with volcanic soil and the aroma of ripe coffee cherries—an invisible transformation unfolds inside each bean. It’s not just fermentation shaping the taste of your morning brew; it’s a microscopic migration of acids and sugars that redefines our understanding of flavor development in coffee.

Recent research led by scientists at Cenicafé and the University of Caldas has uncovered a crucial mechanism behind coffee’s flavor complexity: the diffusion of organic compounds from the mucilage (a sticky, sugar-rich layer surrounding the bean) into the bean’s endosperm during fermentation. This process goes far beyond surface interaction—it’s a journey of molecules, altering the coffee from the inside out.

The study focused on the Castillo variety of Coffea arabica grown in Chinchiná, in the Colombian Andes. Researchers exposed cherries at three stages of ripeness to extended fermentation under tightly controlled conditions. Using advanced carbon isotope tracing, they monitored how compounds such as citric, malic, quinic, tartaric, acetic, and lactic acids—along with sugars like glucose, fructose, and sucrose—moved from the mucilage into the beans.

The findings were striking. While citric, malic, and quinic acids remained relatively stable within the bean, the levels of tartaric and acetic acids increased significantly with time. This confirmed that these acids weren’t just produced externally—they diffused into the bean during fermentation.

This reveals a critical but often overlooked mechanism in coffee processing: mass transfer by diffusion. Unlike mixing or stirring, this is a silent chemical process, occurring under solid-state fermentation conditions—without agitation, without convection, but driven by gradients in chemical potential.

Understanding this migration could transform how producers manage fermentation. For instance, acetic acid adds brightness in small amounts but can overpower a cup if excessive. Tartaric acid, known for its sharp grape-like flavor, can similarly be used to modulate taste. Meanwhile, while most sugars are metabolized by microbes during fermentation, their byproducts leave flavor footprints in the bean.

Temperature and fermentation time are key to this delicate process. Lower temperatures slow down diffusion—much like syrup thickening in a cold room—while higher temperatures speed it up but can also accelerate microbial instability. This balance between physical chemistry and microbiology is crucial to refining cup quality.

These insights shift the narrative of coffee processing. Fermentation is no longer merely an external microbial event—it is a chemical conversation between the bean and its surrounding mucilage. For producers, roasters, and baristas, understanding this internal transformation offers new tools for controlling flavor development with precision.

Because every remarkable cup of coffee doesn’t begin at the roastery—it begins with thousands of invisible steps, many of which happen deep inside the bean.

Scientific References:

• Osorio, V., Medina, R., Acuña, J.R., Pabón, J., Álvarez, C.I., Matallana, L.G., & Fernández-Alduenda, M.R. (2023). Transformation of organic acids and sugars in the mucilage and coffee beans during prolonged fermentation. Journal of Food Composition and Analysis, 123, 105551. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfca.2023.105551

• Kregiel, D., Dziekonska-Kubczak, U., Czarnecka-Chrebelska, K., & Pielech-Przybylska, K. (2025). Chemical Fingerprints of Honey Fermented by Conventional and Non-Conventional Yeasts. Molecules, 30, 2319. https://doi.org/10.3390/molecules30112319

The global coffee market continued its complex trajectory in May 2025, with slight adjustments in prices and exports reflecting the delicate balance between improving supply chains, mixed demand trends, and broader economic uncertainties.

According to the latest Coffee Market Report released by the International Coffee Organization (ICO), the ICO Composite Indicator Price (I-CIP) averaged 334.41 US cents per pound in May—slipping by just 0.4% compared to April. Despite this minor decline, prices remain significantly elevated year-over-year, standing 60.5% higher than in May 2024.

Arabica Holds Ground, Robusta Retreats

While Robusta coffee experienced a notable 3.5% price decline, dipping to 237.76 US cents/lb, Arabica varieties saw modest gains:

• Colombian Milds: 395.59 US cents/lb (+0.4%)

• Other Milds: 397.84 US cents/lb (+1.3%)

• Brazilian Naturals: 380.02 US cents/lb (+0.5%)

The arbitrage between New York and London futures widened by 6.6% to 143.58 US cents/lb. Meanwhile, market volatility stabilized slightly, with I-CIP intra-day variation averaging 11.1%.

Shifting Export Patterns: Brazil Slows, Africa Surges

Global green coffee exports in April 2025 totaled 10.2 million bags, down 6.8% from April 2024. The decline was largely driven by a 14.4% drop in Brazilian Naturals. Robustas also decreased by 5.8%, primarily due to Brazil’s dramatic 86.4% fall in Robusta exports.

In contrast, the Colombian Milds and Other Milds categories grew modestly, with Kenya and Ethiopia leading the gains. Kenyan exports soared 14%, marking a 24-year record for the country.

The share of Arabica in total green bean exports increased from 59.9% to 63.3%, further underscoring consumer preference for higher-end coffee despite inflationary pressures.

Regional Highlights

• Africa: Exports surged 30.2% to 1.8 million bags. Ethiopia and Uganda led the way, buoyed by strong harvests and high global prices.

• Asia & Oceania: Up 8.3%, with Indonesia and Vietnam showing double-digit growth in response to elevated Robusta prices.

• South America: Down 28.4% as Brazil’s exports fell sharply, partly due to ongoing port delays. This marked the sixth consecutive month of decline.

• Mexico & Central America: Grew 4.1%, potentially signaling the start of a new up-cycle after years of decline.

Roasted and Soluble Coffee Rising

Processed coffee exports reflected growth as well. Soluble coffee exports rose 6% to 1.13 million bags in April 2025, with Brazil leading the segment. Roasted coffee beans surged 16.4%, reaching 87,619 bags compared to 75,253 bags in April 2024.

Soluble coffee’s share of total coffee exports rose to 9.5%, up from 8.8% a year earlier—demonstrating rising global demand for convenient coffee products.

Futures Market Update: Major Contract Shift Ahead

A major structural change was also announced: ICE Futures U.S. will phase out the Coffee “C” contract by March 2028. The new Arabica contract will be priced in USD per metric tonne and allow the use of Flexible Intermediate Bulk Containers (FIBCs), aiming to modernize the coffee futures market.

Mixed Market Signals: What Lies Ahead?

The report identified several bullish and bearish indicators shaping the near-term outlook:

Bullish:

• Strong U.S. consumer spending supported by low household debt.

• JDE Peet’s announcement of possible retail price hikes, signaling sustained demand.

Bearish:

• USDA forecasts indicate increased supply from Brazil (+0.2%) and Peru (+8%).

• Neutral El Niño conditions bode well for harvests in Latin America.

• Geopolitical improvements in the Red Sea (Houthi ceasefire) are enhancing logistics and reducing shipping delays.

• Concerns persist over U.S. trade tariffs and potential recessionary effects.

Inventory Rebound

Certified coffee stocks rebounded in May:

• Arabica (New York): +9.4% to 0.93 million bags

• Robusta (London): +28.1% to 0.92 million bags

These increases suggest improved logistics and short-term supply availability.

Conclusion

May 2025 brought stabilization rather than disruption to the global coffee market. Arabica continues to dominate global exports, while African and Southeast Asian producers have capitalized on global price dynamics. As the market transitions into the second half of the year, attention will turn to weather patterns, economic signals, and the evolving futures market structure to gauge where prices and demand are headed.

📊 Download the full report here
📈 Explore price visuals and regional breakdowns on QahwaWorld.com