Starbucks Malaysia Suffers Record Annual Losses as Boycotts Persist

Kuala Lumpur – August 28, 2025 (Qahwa World) – Starbucks’ Malaysia operator, Berjaya Food Berhad, has announced the heaviest losses in its history as customer boycotts linked to the Israel–Gaza conflict continued to weigh on sales and consumer sentiment. The group reported a net loss of RM 292 million ($69 million) for the year ending 30 June 2025, more than triple the losses of the previous year. Fourth-quarter results also reflected the downturn, with losses exceeding RM 185 million ($44 million), the worst quarterly outcome since the company was listed on Bursa Malaysia in 2011.

Revenues were similarly affected, dropping 36% year-on-year to RM 476.77 million ($113 million), while fourth-quarter sales fell 10% to RM 115.9 million ($27.5 million). Berjaya cited the prolonged boycotts as the main reason behind the decline, noting that the shift in consumer behavior has significantly impacted Starbucks and other US-based foodservice brands operating in Malaysia. The group was also compelled to scale back its Starbucks network, reducing its outlets from 408 to 320 stores over the past year, while making impairment provisions on assets due to the downsizing.

The financial damage reflects a wider backlash in Malaysia against American brands, with chains such as McDonald’s, Burger King, and KFC also facing boycotts. The trend has reshaped spending patterns in the majority-Muslim country, where consumer sentiment toward US companies has been severely weakened.

Globally, Starbucks is grappling with similar pressures, recording weaker results in several key markets. The brand has faced revenue declines in Europe and the Middle East alongside falling like-for-like sales across its 17,200 US outlets. Franchise partners have also been hit, with Alsea in Europe reporting five consecutive quarters of falling sales, while Kuwait-based Alshaya Group abandoned plans to sell a minority stake in its Starbucks franchise business earlier this year.

Despite the downturn, Berjaya is moving to diversify and expand. Beyond Starbucks, the group operates Paris Baguette, Kenny Rogers Roasters, and Krispy Kreme in Malaysia, and has been widening its international footprint with new Starbucks licenses in Denmark, Finland, and Iceland, where it opened its first store in July 2025. Berjaya is also looking to grow its Paris Baguette operations, with franchise agreements in place to bring the bakery-café chain to Thailand, Brunei, and the UAE.

World Barista Championship Turns 25 in Milan: Applications Now Open

Milan – August 28, 2025 (Qahwa World) — The World Barista Championship (WBC) is marking a historic milestone this year as it celebrates its 25th anniversary at HostMilano in Milan, Italy. From October 17–21, 2025, the global coffee stage will once again spotlight innovation, talent, and passion, bringing together more than 50 national champions to compete for the world title.

What started in 2000 with just 14 baristas in Monte Carlo has now grown into the world’s most prestigious coffee competition. Over a quarter of a century, the WBC has defined modern barista culture, inspired innovation across the industry, and created a platform where champions set the tone for the global specialty coffee movement.

To mark this landmark edition, the World Coffee Championships (WCC) is inviting skilled professionals to apply as Calibration Baristas or Emcees. These roles are essential in ensuring the highest competition standards and delivering a seamless championship experience.

Calibration Baristas support Judge Certification and Calibration events by performing competition-level routines multiple times, helping align scoring standards across the judging panel. Applicants must have competed at least once in a national or world-level competition, possess two competition-ready routines, and demonstrate strong organizational skills and adaptability.

Emcees, meanwhile, take on the role of guiding audiences through the event, ensuring that the stories of competitors and the spirit of the championship are conveyed to spectators both in person and online.

The 25th edition of the WBC will not only crown a new champion but also celebrate the baristas and judges who have shaped coffee history over the past two decades. Audiences can join live at HostMilano or follow the competition online, ensuring global access to the world’s biggest coffee stage.

Applications for Calibration Baristas and Emcees are open for a limited time. More details, including eligibility requirements and deadlines, are available on the official website: wcc.coffee.

Matcha Gains Momentum as Hospitality Embraces Ritual and Wellness

Dubai, August 27, 2025 (Qahwa World) – Matcha is fast emerging as one of the most influential beverages in the global hospitality industry. Once rooted in the centuries-old tea traditions of Japan, it has now been adopted worldwide as a drink that symbolizes wellness, sustainability, and cultural sophistication. For hotels, cafés, and specialty bars, it is no longer just an alternative to coffee, but a statement of values that align with modern consumer expectations.

In recent years, the pace of change in beverage menus has accelerated. Consumers are increasingly seeking options that provide not only refreshment but also meaning. Matcha, with its history and ritualized preparation, has stepped into that space. It is being served not only in traditional bowls but also as lattes, iced beverages, and innovative cocktails, offering versatility that fits seamlessly into contemporary hospitality.

“Matcha speaks to a deeper need, the desire to slow down and reconnect, even in the midst of a busy day,” said Fabiola Ruggiero, Founder of Cose di Tè. “Its preparation is a quiet ritual. Its flavor is bold, complex, vegetal. It engages the senses — and invites a moment of presence.”

Unlike conventional teas, which are steeped and discarded, matcha is consumed in its entirety. Finely ground from shade-grown leaves, it is rich in antioxidants, amino acids, and slow-release caffeine. This makes it especially appealing to younger generations and professionals seeking calm focus and sustained energy without the spikes often associated with coffee. Nutrition experts also point to its role in supporting wellness trends that emphasize balance and mindfulness.

Ruggiero underlined that matcha is more than a healthy beverage. “It’s rare to find a product that unites health benefits, aesthetic appeal, and storytelling potential. Matcha does all three. That is why it resonates so deeply with today’s guest.”

The storytelling element is particularly relevant for the hospitality sector. By presenting matcha as part of an intentional ritual — where preparation tools are visible, tasting notes are offered, and pairings such as mochi or shortbread are served — operators can elevate the guest experience. Small details, such as presenting matcha with a focus on authenticity and care, are increasingly being recognized as defining aspects of modern luxury.

For venues, the commercial logic is clear. Matcha introduces new revenue streams during off-peak hours, appeals to customers seeking non-coffee options, and positions businesses as forward-thinking. The drink’s vibrant green color and striking presentation also add visual impact in an era where social media presence influences customer decisions. “Matcha is where ancient tradition meets future-conscious living,” Ruggiero said. “It is an invitation to pause, to reconnect, to choose differently.”

Technology is also playing a role in ensuring consistency and quality in matcha-based beverages. The Eagle One machine by Victoria Arduino has been engineered with Steam-by-Wire technology to guarantee precise temperature stability, energy efficiency, and responsive steam control. For baristas, this ensures that milk-based matcha drinks achieve the silky microfoam and balance that complement, rather than overpower, the delicate tea. Such precision has become increasingly important as venues adapt to growing demand for plant-based alternatives such as oat or almond milk.

The integration of matcha into menus reflects a broader shift in hospitality, where tradition and innovation work hand in hand. On one side, the centuries-old ritual of whisking green tea powder into water continues to carry cultural significance. On the other, modern design, technology, and hospitality concepts are helping to reintroduce matcha to new audiences in ways that feel relevant and accessible.

As the global beverage industry adapts to rapid change, matcha has moved far beyond being a temporary trend. Its combination of heritage, health benefits, versatility, and cultural narrative places it firmly at the intersection of wellness and hospitality innovation. For operators seeking to meet evolving consumer expectations, it represents not just another option on the menu, but a strategic choice that signals purpose and progress.

Coffee Prices Surge as ICE Inventories Hit Multi-Year Lows

Dubai, August 27, 2025 (Qahwa World) – Coffee markets staged a sharp turnaround by Wednesday’s close, with both arabica and robusta futures rallying strongly as dwindling ICE inventories and tightening export flows outweighed harvest pressure from Brazil. The rebound highlights the volatility gripping global coffee trade, where supply constraints and policy shifts continue to drive rapid intraday price swings.

On the ICE exchange, December arabica coffee (KCZ25) jumped +13.00 (+3.49%), while November robusta (RMX25) surged +188 (+4.01%), with robusta touching a three-month high. The rally came just hours after arabica futures had slipped on harvest pressure, underscoring how quickly sentiment is shifting.

ICE-monitored stocks remain a key bullish driver. Arabica inventories fell to a 1.25-year low of 716,578 bags, while robusta dropped to a one-month low of 6,611 lots. Traders say the tightening certified stockpiles are providing strong underlying support, particularly for robusta. At the same time, Brazil’s harvest is almost complete. Cooxupé, the country’s largest cooperative, reported members were 91.3% finished by August 22, while Safras & Mercado estimated 99% of the crop complete, with robusta fully harvested and arabica at 98%. This progress has been weighing on prices, yet the bullish impact of falling inventories and weaker exports is increasingly dominant.

July export figures underline this trend. Brazil’s Trade Ministry reported a 20.4% year-on-year decline in unroasted coffee exports, totaling 161,000 metric tons. Cecafé confirmed a broader contraction, citing a 28% fall in green coffee exports to 2.4 million bags. Arabica exports dropped 21%, while robusta plunged 49%. Shipments for the first seven months of 2025 are down 21% at 22.2 million bags.

Outside Brazil, fundamentals remain tight. Vietnam’s 2023/24 crop fell 20% year-on-year to 1.47 million metric tons due to drought, the smallest in four years. Exports in 2024 declined 17%, though shipments this year have rebounded, rising 6.9% between January and July. At the global level, the International Coffee Organization (ICO) reported June exports up 7.3% year-on-year to 11.69 million bags, though cumulative shipments since October are slightly lower at -0.2%.

Looking ahead, the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) projects record global production of 178.68 million bags in 2025/26, driven by robusta’s 7.9% expansion. Arabica output is expected to contract by 1.7% to 97 million bags. Despite this, Volcafé forecasts a deepening arabica deficit of 8.5 million bags, widening from this year’s 5.5 million, marking the fifth consecutive annual shortfall.

The market’s day-to-day volatility highlights the tension between short-term harvest pressure and long-term structural supply constraints. With U.S. buyers canceling contracts following 50% tariffs on Brazilian coffee, and inventories at multi-year lows, analysts warn the coming months could bring continued turbulence for global coffee prices.

Qahwa World and Ethiopia’s Buna Kurs Forge Landmark Editorial Alliance

Dubai,Addis Ababa, 27 August 2025(Qahwa World) – In a groundbreaking development for the global coffee industry, Qahwa World of the Middle East and Ethiopia’s Buna Kurs Media have signed a pioneering editorial Memorandum of Understanding (MoU), creating a cross-regional alliance that bridges Yemeni coffee heritage, the broader Arab qahwa tradition, and Ethiopia’s buna legacy. These three cultural foundations have shaped coffee’s global history yet remain underrepresented in industry narratives.

The partnership establishes a new model of media collaboration in the coffee sector, centered on shared storytelling, cross-regional representation, and mutual amplification. By connecting Yemen’s pivotal contribution, the Arab world’s cultural continuum, and Ethiopia’s origin story, Qahwa World and Buna Kurs aim to spark new conversations among brands, researchers, donors, media, and investors.

Under the agreement, Qahwa World will serve as Buna Kurs’s editorial partner in the Middle East, amplifying African coffee narratives—including Ethiopia and beyond—to Yemeni and Arab audiences, while Buna Kurs strengthens Qahwa World’s presence in Africa. The collaboration includes joint editorial exchange, event coverage, and advertising opportunities. Together, the two platforms will publish features, interviews, and cultural spotlights designed to challenge conventional narratives, elevate overlooked voices, and create new opportunities for authentic engagement.

“Qahwa World has always sought to honor coffee’s Yemeni and Arab legacy. Working with Buna Kurs allows us to situate that legacy within the broader African origin story, creating a holistic and globally relevant narrative. This is not just about content—it is about shaping the industry’s cultural conscience,” said Ali Alzakary, Founder of Qahwa World.

Tewodros Balcha, Founder of Buna Kurs, echoed the vision: “Coffee has always been more than a commodity—it is a cultural connector. Through this partnership, we are pioneering a new way to tell coffee’s story: one that restores origin narrative.”

At a time when the global coffee industry is grappling with sustainability, equity, and identity, the alliance signals a fresh approach to media and storytelling. By linking Yemen, the Arab world, and Ethiopia, the initiative offers brands, institutions, and investors a platform for authentic cross-continental engagement while opening new doors for responsible promotion, collaborative research, and cultural exchange.

The MoU serves as a framework for broader cooperation, with plans for co-hosted events, thematic campaigns, and joint representation at global industry forums. Both Qahwa World and Buna Kurs are committed to shaping a coffee narrative that reflects heritage, culture, and the evolving challenges of today’s market.

About Qahwa World
Qahwa World is a UAE-based media platform dedicated to Yemeni and Arab coffee heritage. Through journalism, cultural storytelling, events, and partnerships, it bridges traditional qahwa culture with today’s global coffee industry.

About Buna Kurs
Buna Kurs is Ethiopia’s pioneering coffee industry platform, with a curated audience of thousands of stakeholders across Africa. It amplifies Ethiopia’s and Africa’s role in the global coffee narrative.

3 to 5 Cups of Coffee Daily Extend Life and Reduce Disease Risk

Dubai, 27 August 2025 (Qahwa World) – For centuries, coffee has been more than a drink. It has been a ritual, a social bond, a fuel for intellectual debate, and a daily companion for billions. Now, science is reaffirming that this centuries-old beverage is not only cultural but also profoundly tied to human health. A comprehensive review published this month in Nutrients concludes that moderate coffee consumption, typically three to five cups a day, is consistently linked to longer life and a reduced risk of many of the world’s leading causes of death.

The study, authored by Ryan Emadi and Dr. Farin Kamangar, examined decades of large-scale cohort research involving millions of participants across the United States, Europe, and Asia. Their findings show that people who regularly drink coffee enjoy between 10% and 15% lower overall mortality than non-drinkers. Importantly, both caffeinated and decaffeinated coffee were associated with these benefits, suggesting that the protective effects come not only from caffeine but also from the dozens of bioactive compounds present in coffee.

Evidence is particularly strong when it comes to major chronic diseases. For cardiovascular health, those who consumed three to five cups daily experienced about a 15% reduced risk of heart disease and stroke. Type 2 diabetes, a condition that affects hundreds of millions worldwide, also appears to be strongly influenced by coffee habits. A meta-analysis of more than one million participants found that coffee drinkers had nearly a 30% lower risk of developing type 2 diabetes, and this protection extended to both decaf and regular coffee. Among people already living with diabetes, coffee consumption was linked to fewer cardiovascular events and lower mortality rates.

The benefits extend to neurological health as well. Drinking coffee was associated with up to a 25% lower risk of cognitive disorders such as dementia and Alzheimer’s disease. The protective effect also applied to Parkinson’s disease, where coffee and caffeine intake not only lowered the risk of developing the disease but also slowed its progression among those already diagnosed. Respiratory diseases, another major global killer, also showed an inverse relationship with coffee consumption, while studies reported reduced risks of liver fibrosis, chronic kidney disease, and acute kidney injury among habitual drinkers.

Cancer, once the focus of skepticism about coffee, has now largely been cleared from suspicion. Earlier fears that coffee might contribute to cancer risk have been replaced by evidence suggesting the opposite. Coffee is now associated with reduced risk of several cancers, particularly of the liver, uterus, and endometrium. A pooled analysis of nineteen studies found that women who drank coffee had a 13% lower risk of endometrial cancer, and the relationship was dose-dependent—the more coffee, the lower the risk.

Beyond chronic disease, coffee also appears to play a role in everyday well-being and safety. Studies cited in the review showed that drivers consuming caffeinated coffee were significantly less likely to crash, and older adults had a reduced risk of falls. Researchers attribute this to coffee’s ability to improve alertness, attention, and mobility.

The mechanisms behind these benefits are diverse and interconnected. Coffee has been shown to improve glucose tolerance, enhance daily physical activity, increase fat oxidation during exercise, boost lung function, and reduce inflammation. One trial found that people who drank caffeinated coffee walked an average of 1,000 more steps per day than on days they abstained. Other studies demonstrated that coffee drinkers had lower levels of inflammatory markers, suggesting that coffee helps the body manage the underlying inflammation that fuels many chronic diseases.

Yet not all coffee is created equal. The review stressed that black coffee offers the strongest protection. Adding sugar, in particular, can cancel out or diminish benefits. Some studies have linked sugar-sweetened coffee to higher risks of depression and weight gain, while unsweetened coffee showed the opposite effect. Cream and milk appear less harmful, but excessive amounts of sugar and high-fat additives weaken coffee’s health profile.

There are also caveats. Pregnant women are advised to limit caffeine to below 200 milligrams per day, as higher intake may pose risks. Coffee can interfere with sleep if consumed too late in the day, cutting total sleep time by around 30 to 45 minutes. Excessive consumption may trigger anxiety, palpitations, or panic attacks in sensitive individuals. Despite these concerns, the authors emphasized that for the vast majority of adults, moderate consumption is not only safe but beneficial.

Dr. Farin Kamangar summarized the findings: “The results of several decades of high-quality research on millions of people show that coffee is overall beneficial to health. Moderate coffee consumption, typically three to five cups a day, is linked to increased longevity and reduced risks of many major diseases, including heart disease, stroke, type 2 diabetes, respiratory illnesses, and cognitive decline.”

This new consensus has already begun to reshape official guidelines. The U.S. Food and Drug Administration recently ruled that plain coffee with fewer than five calories per serving can be labeled as “healthy,” reflecting its favorable profile across multiple health outcomes.

In the end, coffee is not a cure-all, but the evidence is clear: consumed in moderation, it is far more friend than foe. For billions who reach for a cup each morning, the comfort of coffee now comes with scientific reassurance that it may also be extending their lives.

Tims China Accelerates Franchise Push Amid Store Closures to Regain Profitability

Dubai, 27 August 2025 (Qahwa World) – Tims China is doubling down on its sub-franchise strategy as the Canadian coffee chain’s master licensee in China seeks a path to sustainable profitability in one of the world’s most competitive coffee markets. The company is closing underperforming outlets while rapidly expanding its franchised network across new cities and high-traffic locations.

The operator of Tim Hortons in China reported a 4.9% year-on-year revenue decline in the second quarter of 2025, falling to RMB 349m ($48.7m). The drop was largely driven by a 12.5% contraction in sales from company-operated stores, following the closure of 49 outlets during the three-month period ending 30 June, including 41 small-format Tims Express locations.

Despite the top-line decline, the strategic retreat yielded financial relief. Adjusted corporate EBITDA returned to positive territory at RMB 2.2m ($300,000), a turnaround from a RMB 29.3m ($4m) loss in the previous quarter. Adjusted net loss narrowed 16.2% year-on-year to RMB 39.7m ($5.5m), while net loss from continuing operations fell 24% to RMB 75.9m ($10.6m).

At the end of June, Tims China operated 1,015 stores nationwide, with 566 company-operated and 449 franchised outlets. The franchising model is emerging as a key growth engine: franchised store revenues surged 50% year-on-year to RMB 67.1m ($9.4m), supported by aggressive expansion into transport hubs, hospitals, and universities.

“Leveraging several franchisee partnerships, we expanded our store footprint into 98 cities, including Zibo in Shandong, Lishei in Zhejiang, Luan in Anhui, and Jincheng in Shaanxi,” said Yongchen Lu, CEO of Tims China.

However, challenges remain. Like-for-like sales across company-operated stores fell 3.6%, with transactions down 3.2% and average ticket size shrinking 6.9% year-on-year, underscoring pressure on consumer spending and brand positioning in China’s crowded coffee landscape.

The second quarter marked the fifth consecutive year-on-year decline in group revenues, yet management views the franchising shift as a pathway to long-term stability. By reducing exposure to loss-making outlets and capitalizing on franchise partnerships, Tims China aims to balance expansion with profitability — a strategy increasingly favored by global coffee chains navigating China’s competitive market.

Tim Cofer’s Strategy: Why Keurig Dr Pepper Is Building a Coffee Giant

New York – August 27, 2025 (Qahwa World) – When Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP) unveiled its $18.4 billion acquisition of JDE Peet’s, the headline alone turned heads. But the deeper story lies in the reasoning of CEO Tim Cofer, who is reshaping the company by building a coffee powerhouse—only to spin it off as an independent entity while KDP doubles down on its soda and refreshment empire.

The move marks a sharp departure from the vision set in 2018, when Keurig Green Mountain merged with Dr Pepper Snapple in a $19 billion deal. The idea was bold: unite hot and cold beverages under one roof, controlling every category of nonalcoholic drinks on consumers’ shopping lists. That concept thrived during the COVID-19 lockdown, when KDP used AI insights from home brewers to anticipate surging demand for K-Cups, while also stockpiling Dr Pepper and Canada Dry. Sales boomed as consumers hoarded both coffee pods and sodas.

Yet the promise of synergy has faded. In Q2 2025, KDP’s soft drink revenues surged 10.7% compared with the previous year, but U.S. coffee sales fell 1.9% and international hot beverages dropped 3.8%. Rising coffee bean prices forced K-Cup price hikes, pushing consumers toward cheaper ground and instant coffee. Instead of a perfect fit, coffee became a drag on the business, and management faced the distraction of running two very different operations.

Cofer’s solution: scale and separation. By acquiring JDE Peet’s—home to brands like Jacobs, L’Or, and Peet’s Coffee retail stores—KDP will merge it with Keurig to create a transatlantic coffee giant generating nearly $16 billion in annual revenues split evenly between Europe and North America. Then KDP will spin off the coffee business to shareholders, giving it independence and sharper focus. The remaining KDP will center entirely on refreshment, managing more than 150 brands from Dr Pepper and 7Up to Snapple and Schweppes.

For Cofer, the decision is not about retreat but about unlocking potential. Coffee, he points out, is a $400 billion global market—one of the few products most people consider indispensable. But paired with sodas, it lacked the attention and resources it deserved. As a standalone company, it can pursue growth on its own terms. Meanwhile, KDP’s soda business can concentrate on taking market share from Coke and Pepsi, especially in restaurants, energy drinks, sports hydration, and trendy innovations like “dirty sodas,” which KDP introduced after spotting a viral TikTok craze.

The move reflects Cofer’s pedigree as a dealmaker. At Kraft and Mondelez, he mastered the art of integrating and separating global businesses, from the Kraft-Cadbury merger to snack acquisitions in Asia. At KDP, he has applied the same instincts, betting on bold moves like acquiring Ghost Energy and diversifying into premium categories. Now he is wagering that specialization, not diversification, will deliver long-term growth.

Investors are skeptical. KDP’s stock fell 11% on the day of the announcement, erasing billions in market value. But analysts note that coffee and sodas are fundamentally different businesses, with little overlap in distribution or strategy. Splitting them could, in fact, make both stronger.

If Cofer’s gamble pays off, KDP’s breakup will not just be remembered as a costly deal but as one of the defining strategic pivots in today’s beverage industry—creating two giants instead of one distracted hybrid.

Yemeni Café to Replace Starbucks in the Heart of Dearborn

Detroit – August 27, 2025 (Qahwa World) – The well-known Starbucks branch on Michigan Avenue in East Dearborn has permanently closed after nearly 16 years of operation, paving the way for a Yemeni café that reflects the cultural shifts in a city with one of the most prominent Arab-American communities.

The store, located at the intersection of Michigan Avenue and Oakman Boulevard, officially ceased operations on August 24 and will soon be transformed into a Yemeni café. According to local reports, Moka & Co, a Yemeni coffee brand with multiple branches in Detroit, Ann Arbor, East Lansing, Okemos, and other states, is expected to take over the site. The lease is anticipated to be finalized within weeks, with the café projected to open by late 2025 or early 2026 after renovations.

The closure comes as part of Starbucks’ “Back to Starbucks” initiative, announced in July 2025, which includes closing or converting up to 90 mobile-order and pick-up-only stores across the U.S. by fiscal year 2026 to focus on traditional café formats. While the company has not issued a specific statement about this location, the decision aligns with consumer trends in Dearborn, where Yemeni cafés are steadily gaining ground.

Dearborn, home to one of the largest Arab-American populations in the United States, has become a hub for Yemeni coffee through establishments such as Haraz Coffee House and Qahwah House. These cafés are distinguished by their richly spiced brews, honeycomb bread, and late-night community atmosphere, creating spaces that have often outshined corporate chains.

The upcoming Yemeni café is expected to serve single-origin beans from Yemen alongside a menu that blends tradition and modern trends, including iced pistachio lattes, moka spice lattes, Adeni chai, frozen drinks, refreshers, and matcha lattes.

The shift away from global coffee chains in Dearborn has been fueled both by consumer boycotts tied to geopolitical issues and by a preference for authentic, community-driven experiences. A 2024 report by The Arab American News highlighted a sharp decline in Starbucks sales in the city as customers increasingly turned to Yemeni cafés for better value, cultural connection, and superior taste.

For many residents, the closure of Starbucks marks a continuation rather than a loss. “Starbucks was fine, but Yemeni cafés offer something unique — coffee with a story, from Yemen’s mountains to our cups,” said Aisha Nasser, a regular at Qahwah House.

With renovations already underway, the location is expected to reopen soon under Yemeni management. For East Dearborn, the transformation of a Starbucks into a Yemeni café underscores a broader narrative: the city’s coffee identity is no longer shaped by global chains but by a return to its cultural roots — Yemeni coffee as both tradition and thriving enterprise.

Arabica Coffee Slips as Brazil’s Harvest Nears Completion

Dubai, August 27, 2025 (Qahwa World) – Arabica coffee futures fell on Tuesday as pressure from Brazil’s near-complete harvest weighed on the market, while robusta prices gained on tightening supply signals. On the ICE exchange, December arabica coffee (KCZ25) closed down 1.44% at -5.45, while November robusta (RMU25) climbed 0.86% (+40). The divergence reflects the complex forces shaping global coffee markets at the end of August.

Brazil’s influential Cooxupé cooperative announced that as of August 22, its members had completed 91.3% of their 2025/26 harvest, signaling an abundant flow of fresh beans into the market. Independent consultancy Safras & Mercado reported even higher progress, noting 99% of Brazil’s harvest complete, including 100% of robusta and 98% of arabica. Such rapid progress has increased selling pressure, pushing arabica futures lower despite ongoing concerns about weather damage in Minas Gerais, the country’s top arabica-growing region. Somar Meteorologia reported no rainfall in the week ending August 23, following frost damage earlier in the month.

Counterbalancing the harvest pressure, exchange-monitored stocks remain tight. ICE arabica inventories dropped to a 1.25-year low of 717,113 bags, while robusta inventories fell to a one-month low of 6,614 lots, underpinning prices. Additional upward pressure stems from U.S. market disruptions, where buyers are canceling contracts for Brazilian coffee following the imposition of 50% tariffs on Brazilian exports. With Brazil supplying nearly one-third of unroasted beans to the U.S., the restrictions are tightening American supplies.

Brazil’s July export data highlighted another bullish element. The Trade Ministry reported a 20.4% year-on-year decline in unroasted coffee exports to 161,000 metric tons. Exporter group Cecafé confirmed the trend, citing a 28% fall in green coffee exports to 2.4 million bags. Arabica shipments dropped 21%, while robusta exports plunged 49% compared to July 2024. For the first seven months of 2025, Cecafé recorded a 21% decline in Brazil’s overall coffee exports, totaling 22.2 million bags.

Global indicators, however, showed a mixed picture. The International Coffee Organization reported that global June exports rose 7.3% year-on-year, reaching 11.69 million bags, although October–June cumulative exports slipped slightly by 0.2%. In Vietnam, drought weighed heavily on 2023/24 production, which fell 20% to 1.47 million metric tons, the smallest crop in four years. Exports also slumped 17% in 2024, though this year’s January–July shipments rose 6.9%.

Looking ahead, the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service projects record global coffee production in 2025/26 at 178.68 million bags, led by a 7.9% increase in robusta output. Arabica production, however, is expected to decline by 1.7% to 97 million bags. Despite this, traders remain cautious, as Volcafé forecasts an arabica deficit of 8.5 million bags in 2025/26, marking the fifth consecutive year of supply shortfalls, compared with a 5.5 million bag deficit in the current cycle.

New Study Reveals the Secrets of Coffee Price Networks: What Do Quality and America Have to Do with It?

Dubai – August 25, 2025 (Qahwa World) – A groundbreaking academic study titled Quality differences, location, and coffee price return networks: Insights from a high-dimensional CoVaR-copula analysis has shed light on the hidden mechanisms driving coffee price dynamics worldwide. The research highlights that both quality and geographic location play a central role in shaping risk spillovers and market interconnections across the global coffee trade.

The study analyzed daily data spanning twenty years and covering 17 distinct coffee varieties traded in three of the world’s most important markets: the United States, Germany, and France. The data, drawn from the International Coffee Organization (ICO), was not used in aggregated form. Instead, the researchers disaggregated it at the variety level, allowing for a far more detailed and accurate picture of price dynamics and market integration.

The findings suggest that high-quality coffees, such as mild arabicas, form stronger and more stable price linkages within markets, while lower-quality coffees like robusta exhibit more volatility and divergence. Moreover, risk spillovers are found to be stronger among coffees of similar quality, creating distinct clusters in the price network.

One of the study’s most important insights is the role of the United States as the central node of the global coffee risk network. As the world’s largest importer of coffee, the U.S. absorbs spillovers from European markets, particularly Germany and France. This centrality means that disturbances in European markets can quickly reverberate through the U.S., which then amplifies their impact across the rest of the world.

From a methodological standpoint, the study employed a high-dimensional CoVaR-copula framework, a sophisticated statistical approach that focuses on extreme price movements rather than long-term averages. Unlike traditional cointegration methods, which focus on whether prices move together in the long run, this approach looks at how shocks in one market are transmitted during stress periods to other markets.

To address the challenge of handling a large number of variables, the researchers used high-dimensional VAR (Vector Autoregressive) models combined with an Elastic-Net technique, which helps to reduce overfitting and manage what is known as the “curse of dimensionality.” This combination allowed for the creation of clearer, more precise connectedness networks, showing how risk flows between different coffee varieties and across national markets.

In addition to price data, the study incorporated insights from chemical analyses of coffee. Previous research had identified specific chemical compounds that differentiate varieties and contribute to flavor and aroma profiles. By aligning price data with chemical properties and trading locations, the researchers produced heatmaps and connectedness graphs that reveal how both intrinsic quality and geography drive the clustering of coffee markets.

The results demonstrate that geographical proximity facilitates faster transmission of information and market shocks, while chemical and sensory differences create visible separations within networks. In other words, the global coffee market is not just shaped by supply and demand—it is influenced by the interplay of quality, chemistry, taste, and trading location.

Although the study faced limitations, particularly the inability to analyze coffee futures contracts at the variety level due to insufficient data, it still provides valuable insights into the structure of the global coffee trade. By revealing how clusters form and risks spill over, the research helps explain why certain markets are more vulnerable than others during times of stress.

For policymakers, producers, and importers, these findings carry important implications. Monitoring general coffee price indices is no longer sufficient. Instead, stakeholders must consider differences in quality and geographic positioning when evaluating market risks. With global coffee markets under increasing pressure from climate change, supply chain disruptions, and regulatory frameworks such as the European Union’s deforestation regulation, this research offers a timely tool for risk management and strategic planning.

Ultimately, the study underscores how coffee—often seen as just a daily ritual—sits at the center of a complex economic web. Quality and geography act as the hidden levers of price dynamics, and the United States remains at the core of this network, both shaping and being shaped by the flows of risk. What emerges is a portrait of coffee not simply as a commodity, but as a global force whose market behavior reflects the broader challenges of interconnected economies.

Global Coffee Prices Surge as Brazil Faces Weather Woes and US Tariffs

São Paulo, August 25, 2025 (Qahwa World) – Coffee markets remain under heavy pressure from climate shocks in Brazil and trade tensions with the United States, pushing prices sharply higher in recent weeks, even as a stronger U.S. dollar triggered modest profit-taking on Monday.

Arabica futures in New York had surged to a 3.5-month high earlier in the day but ended lower, with December contracts closing down 0.15% after investors booked profits. September robusta contracts were idle due to a UK holiday. Analysts said the dollar’s strength spurred liquidation, though underlying supply concerns continue to dominate the market.

In Brazil, retail coffee prices that had fallen an average of 12% earlier in August are now expected to reverse course. According to the Brazilian Coffee Industry Association (ABIC), raw coffee prices rose almost 25% between July and August, reaching 2,191 reais ($395) per 60-kilogram bag. Despite this surge, supermarket prices in August averaged 58.99 reais (around $10) per kilogram, still below May’s peak of 70 reais/kg. ABIC’s executive director, Celirio Inacio, warned that if futures remain elevated, higher shelf prices are “inevitable.”

The main external factor driving the rally remains the 50% tariff imposed by the U.S. government on Brazilian goods, including coffee. Brazil normally supplies about one-third of U.S. unroasted coffee imports, and American buyers have already begun canceling contracts. Marcio Ferreira, president of Brazil’s Coffee Exporters Council (Cecafé), called the tariffs “the main driver” of the sharp price increases in New York.

Weather concerns add another layer of pressure. Somar Meteorologia reported that Minas Gerais, Brazil’s largest arabica-producing state, received no rainfall in the week ending August 23. Frost damage earlier in the month has also raised fears of reduced yields. Despite this, Brazil’s 2025/26 harvest is almost complete: Safras & Mercado estimated 99% of the crop had been gathered by August 20, with robusta fully harvested and arabica at 98%. Cooxupé, the country’s largest cooperative, reported its members’ harvest at 86.1% by mid-August.

Exports are slowing dramatically. Brazil’s July shipments of unroasted coffee dropped 20.4% year-on-year to 161,000 metric tons, while Cecafé data showed green coffee exports fell 28% to 2.4 million bags. Arabica exports fell 21%, robusta plunged 49%, and total shipments from January through July were down 21% from last year at 22.2 million bags. Meanwhile, inventories tracked by ICE remain at multi-year lows: arabica stocks hit a 15-month low of 726,661 bags in mid-August, while robusta fell to its lowest in four weeks.

Global dynamics reflect the same strain. The USDA’s Foreign Agriculture Service (FAS) projects world coffee production in 2025/26 will rise 2.5% year-on-year to a record 178.7 million bags, with robusta up nearly 8% but arabica slightly down. Brazil’s production is forecast to rise only 0.5% to 65 million bags, while Vietnam could rebound 6.9% to 31 million bags, its largest in four years. Yet despite the higher output, trading house Volcafe predicts an arabica deficit of 8.5 million bags for 2025/26 — the fifth consecutive year of shortfalls.

Brazil, as the world’s top coffee producer and exporter and the second-largest consumer after the United States, stands at the center of these global shifts. With tariffs restricting trade, exports slowing, inventories tightening, and weather threats mounting, analysts warn that consumers should brace for rising retail coffee prices both domestically and worldwide — even if day-to-day trading sometimes pulls prices lower.